YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. For the record the 34% for the Conservatives is the highest since early February.

Out yesterday there were also some more results from YouGov’s poll of Conservative party members for Tim Bale and Paul Webb – the new results are here and I’ve written about them in more detail over on Huffington Post here.

Also worth reading this morning is Peter Kellner’s take on Miliband’s latest polling figures and Labour’s relationship with the Unions here.


202 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 10”

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  1. No but its good fun and stops some on here getting too serious and full of ****

    Some conversations on here get far too deep and not very relevant to a polling site and probably puts some people off from joining in to be honest.

  2. @PAULCROFT – blimey I did that without a LOL or a lol or even a :)
    Perhaps even I am too serious at times – lol Ooops!

  3. @Sine Nomine – “Con 40 Lab 34 LD 12 UKIP 5”

    yeah – right. And a Scotsman will win Wimbledon.

  4. Dan Hodges having one of his regular twists today in the Telegragh – “Miliband is playing for the highest political stakes. If he fails to implement his new plan, his leadership is over. If he succeeds, then he could totally redefine it.

    But one thing is certain: today we did not see the real Ed Miliband. We saw a brave, decisive and politically astute Ed Miliband few people have set eyes on before.”

  5. @Sine Nomine

    Is that Con 40 the number of MPs you are predicting or vote share?

    Lol

  6. @Alec

    A bit of a back handed compliment there from Hodges, but if he meant it as such he’s still having to concede that Ed is being a strong and politically astute party leader. He might not want to concede that he’s been such in the past, most memorably in going after Murdoch when everyone else was saying that would be political suicide. There may have been press retaliation against him, but Ed is showing a clear ability to control the narrative.

  7. @ALEC – absolutely correct.
    So we are partially there – just need the Tories to gain another 6 points in the next 20 months, Doesn’t sound quite unlikely when its put like that,

  8. @CROSSBAT

    Yes thats correct 40 Conservative MPs and 34 Labour MPs – nice sized house of commons eh? -lol

  9. All we need is Labour to Gain another 6 Points and they will have a 200 Seat Majority, doubt that will happen either.

  10. Ed, is still controlling the narrative is he. I would beg to differ and quite what the advantage is, in such pretence, only God knows.

  11. Thats the spirit Steve – lets all play silly and blame it on this hot weather -lol

  12. @RH – Hello again – “Ed, is still controlling the narrative is he. I would beg to differ and quite what the advantage is, in such pretence, only God knows.”

    I think that’s a touch unfair. There doesn’t appear to be any question that the Falkirk incident was unwelcome and has hurt Labour, but Ed’s move today is significant, has got him very positive coverage, and shows a much needed nimbleness in aiming to turn a negative into an attack position.

  13. @Sine Nomine

    If you are confident about that prediction, I’d visit a bookie.

    It could make you a rich man (assuming you aren’t already!) :)

  14. @Alec,

    I have always thought Ed was a good day to day tactician, ducking and weaving.

    If his longer, more strategic planning was as good, he would be 20 points ahead.

  15. It has always been lib dem policy to clamp down on donations to political parties and to replace large individual donations with public funding, I don’t know how individual lib dem voters feel about this but I’m quite sure that any move in this direction by Labour will be welcomed by lib dem members

  16. Yes thats correct 40 Conservative MPs and 34 Labour MPs – nice sized house of commons eh? -lol

    I assumed you were predicting a sweep for Ukip and the Greens. ;)

  17. SINE NOMINE
    “Some conversations on here get far too deep and not very relevant to a polling site and probably puts some people off from joining in to be honest.”

    Then you’ll be happy to share evidence of polling that suggests your highly implausible belief that Cons will get 40% in the 2015 GE – after all, polling is at least pointers whereas “I believe” theories are as useless as some politicians.

    It’s not very nice to accuse co-posters of discussing topics in depth as if that’s a bad thing – many of us are capable of deep thought & considered opinions.

  18. Alec,

    If Osborne wanted a shift from consumption to investment, then raising capital gains tax was probably not the best way to do it.

  19. My rolling adverts have changed from Grab a Granny

    I wish to complain.

  20. IMF as reported in the Graun:

    The economy will expand by 0.9% compared with the previous forecast of 0.6%, the IMF said in its quarterly global financial health check. But a lacklustre performance by developing countries, a prolonged eurozone recession and US spending cuts will hamper plans to increase exports and restrict Britain’s GDP growth in 2014 to 1.5%, it added.

    IMF official Thomas Helbling said the main reason for the improved outlook was the data in the first quarter showing higher domestic demand.

    “It is a small revision, nothing exceptional. The recovery is still weak and policyholders should still take measures to secure stronger growth,” he said.

  21. “So we are partially there – just need the Tories to gain another 6 points in the next 20 months, Doesn’t sound quite unlikely when its put like that,” @sinenomine

    We just need my aunty to grow some balls and she’ll be my uncle. Easy.

    An important fact you clearly need to dwell upon some more: In 2010, the Tories couldn’t win against a traumatised, tired and demoralised Labour Party led by Gordon Brown after the worst banking crash and one of the deepest recessions ever.

    This time we will have a leader in Ed Miliband who is showing himself to have good instincts.

  22. @Bill P – “If Osborne wanted a shift from consumption to investment, then raising capital gains tax was probably not the best way to do it.”

    Oddly enough, I don’t personally feel that is such a problem. CGT isn’t about investment as such – it’s the tax on increase asset values.

    Where I think Osborne fluffed it was when he reduced annual investment allowances to help pay for corporation tax cuts. Again, cutting taxes on profits doesn’t really directly boost investment – in many ways it does the reverse, as it creates a stronger incentive to withdraw profits. With the AIA’s, the reduction actively discouraged investment.

    I think the real opportunity was missed in the 2010 – 2012 period when he sat on his hands while UK companies built up record net cash holdings of £65B. Their mindset was extremely defensive, so they preferred to lose money by keeping cash at the bank on very low rates, rather than invest for the recovery. This is the main reason I believe why we have seen UK exporters struggle in comparison to many of our competitors. Targeted and time limited big breaks for investment should have been applied.

    In terms of the politics, I thought Labour’s VAT cut when in power was a good emergency move for the time, but I don’t see the policy as having as much validity now. I think both parties should be bending everything to investment, as this is the only way we will mount a sustained recovery.

    Indeed, the collapse and continued weakness of investment has been one of the biggest headwinds against recovery, and is largely self inflicted. Post recession is a time when traditionally it should be on a
    strong upward curve, as buildings, equipment and business assets tend to be cheap, but Osborne has presided over an extremely poor investment record.

  23. Alec,

    I didn’t think you would, but I couldn’t think of a way of making money out of that supposition, and it wouldn’t be worth my while anyway given what capital gains tax is like right now. ;)

    The purpose of investment is to acquire valuable assets. So the link isn’t direct, but it’s there.

    Corporation tax is more important for “lumpy” investment like where to put a factory or HQ. I agree that, for investment in general, investment allowances are more important. Naturally, I would have cut both.

    As for cyclicality, investment should be strong in a recovery, but because of tight money we haven’t had a recovery over the past few years, and that explains much of the problem. My first act, were I chancellor, would be to give the Bank of England a 5% nominal GDP target instead of a 2% inflation target.

  24. @iananthonyjames

    “This time we will have a leader in Ed Miliband who is showing himself to have good instincts.”

    Unfortunately the Public don’t agree. His ratings generally are appalling and only 20%.

    @Sine Nomine

    I know with nearly 2 years to go its just a bit of fun, but your thinking is very much like mine about the result. I suspect the LibDems will score a little more than you suggest and Labour quite a bit less but a small Conservative majority seems about right.

  25. @@iananthonyjames

    Should have said only 20% think he would make a good Prime Minister.

  26. “Ed, is still controlling the narrative is he. I would beg to differ and quite what the advantage is, in such pretence, only God knows” @rolandh

    It is hard for Labour to control the “narrative” when the big popular media barons support the Tories and/or have a openly right wing agenda.

    The real problem for Miliband is the huge disconnect between the average person and politics. It is sad. The media is in the way and it distorts everything.

  27. TOH

    So a large percentage ‘think’ Miliband ‘would be a bad PM but an almost equally large percentage ‘know’ that Cameron ‘ is’ a bad

    IMHO knowing someone is bad at something makes a stronger emotional impact than thinking someone would be bad at something

  28. @TOH

    Tory OM?
    The bookmakers don’t agree with you and you have no polling evidence whatsoever so sou can still get good money on that result. How much have you staked on it?

    I got £300 on Labour being the largest party at 5/4 against.
    and I’ll buy you a drink when I win. Something bitter that you will struggle to swallow.

    The public don’t think about Ed Miliband’s political instincts! But I do. I am telling you that he has got good ones.

  29. @ Colin

    But LM corrected the BBC interviewer when he said there was no proposal to alter the political levy.

    I’m a bit confused.
    —————
    Sorry for not responding more quickly; maybe somebody else has already explained. If not:
    1. 100% of the political levy does not go to the Labour Party at the moment;
    2. Members will continue to pay the same political levy;
    3. The members will be sent a form &/or given access to a website where they can elect to join the Labour Party;
    4. Only the membership fees of those who elect to join Labour will be paid to the Labour Party as fees;
    5. Those who do not elect to join the Labour Party are opting to have their political levy spent on other political activities not directly connected with the Labour Party.

    That’s my understanding of Len’s comments but – of course – I may be wrong &/or the plan may change following the review.

  30. SN

    “Some conversations on here get far too deep ”

    Well at least you can’t blame Roly and t’other Howard for that. Or yerself.

  31. Ooops

    “The International Monetary Fund’s decision to lift its growth forecasts for the UK has been met with widespread derision from leading economists and business leaders.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/07/09/imfs-uk-growth-upgrade-sideshow_n_3565909.html?ir=UK&ref=topbar

  32. AMBER

    Thanks.

    As I see it ( which is hazily), the total political funds being received by a given union will not alter, but the portion paid to the Labour Party as affiliation fees may fall. If it does this will leave the Union with more funds to distribute directly for political purposes.

  33. Colin

    Your last comment reads to me that you disapprove of the TU using their (legally obtained) funds for political purposes?

    Reassure me that is not the case? I assume this would apply to all NGO and poressure groups as well who use their (legally obtained) funds also for political lobbying.

  34. steve

    “I wish to complain.”

    Me too. What are we complaining about and do we need a complaints monitor?

    Roly would be good.

  35. @Colin – “Economic confidence is the primary driver of industrial investment.”

    Absolutely. So if you have a shadow chancellor who consistently argues that your country could end up like Greece, and then gets into power and tells you that the situation is far worse than they thought, and then calls for an emergency budget to make immediate cuts because the markets might be about panic at any moment if they don’t, you might expect some negative impact on investment.

    @Bill P – “Corporation tax is more important for “lumpy” investment like where to put a factory or HQ. I agree that, for investment in general, investment allowances are more important. Naturally, I would have cut both.

    As for cyclicality, investment should be strong in a recovery, but because of tight money we haven’t had a recovery over the past few years, and that explains much of the problem.”

    I don’t disagree, but I still see opportunities missed. The government (and by this I mean the machinery of government, rather than any one political party) is far too taken by big business, where talk of factories and HQs is important.

    Small and micro businesses are actually far more important to us in terms of employment and innovation, yet the focus of government policy has been on big ticket items for the big players.

    This may or may not be related to where party political funding comes from.

    As for tight money, agreed, it was/is a problem. However, the government has found a way to directly intervene in the mortgage market by underwriting loans. Many of us were saying in 2010 that something similar should have been adopted (strictly time limited) for industrial lending. That way we could have increased capacity, created jobs, and positioned ourselves well for the eventual recovery, rather than just make house prices even less affordable.

  36. Just come in from the TdF. I think (looking back a few postings) that AW is down the pub / working hard on today’s poll. Most in the last few hours would have been chopped otherwise.

    Could we agree to cease making ‘2015 GE predictions’ especially if there is no polling evidence.

  37. howard

    “Could we agree to cease making ’2015 GE predictions’ especially if there is no polling evidence.”

    At a daring guess – no.

    There are a small number of posters who see it as their role to make very occasional visits to inform us of “bad news” for Labour [in case we can’t read the news ourselves but can, nevertheess, read their posts] and re-affirm their conviction [which they are perfectly entitled to hold] that the Tories will sweep to victory in 2015 based on – I assume – a belief that anyone who votes Labour is stark staring bonkers.

    Pointless, yes, but nowt you and I can do about it.

  38. @IanAnthonyJames,

    This time we will have a leader in Ed Miliband who is showing himself to have good instincts.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxcccc

    Except his personal poll ratings and approval are if you actually read the polling data, pretty awful.

    Non-partisan statements are best. Saying he has good instincts are your own opinion until its backed up by robust polling data.

  39. @ Colin

    Yes, that’s my understanding of it too.

  40. Disappointing news on the ECHR ruling today. Seems like its both Conservatives and some in Labour who are disagreeing with this pretty strongly. Saw Blunketts reaction and he was totally against it.

    I do generally agree with the concept of rehabilitation, but to suggest our own law courts cannot impose a full life term on somebody like Peter Sutcliffe will always be wrong in my book. I think it would be safe to say this is on the wrong side of the debate compared to the vast majority of where the British electorate would be too. Boosting support for a referendum?

  41. A referendum on what, Rich?

  42. @iananthonyjames

    What an amazing post you do sound bitter. It does not matter to me very much who wins, although i would prefer the Tories as they have many values that I share. Neither the Tories nor Labour will face up to debt problems facing us so i am relatively relaxed about it. Either way the long term decline of this country will continue. It is unlikely to affect me very much as I am reasonably well off and i am also in my 70’s with cancer so probaly no more than 10 years left anyway.

    As to you comments on betting I don’t gamble that way. I do play the markets but with a reasonably conservative strategy and that has served me very well over the last 25 years.

  43. @Paul Croft

    I agree with your last post almost to the word. I don’t post much these days because i have better things to do. However i will post when i feel like it, usually just to correct a partisan post from the left.

    Feeling really good at the moment, so cheers.

  44. @norbold,

    EU of course. Although personally I think we need to stay in on a trading bloc basis alone, but this ruling I can’t support.

    Anyway, the point I am making is that this sort of judgement will not be supported by the vast majority of the electorate, so it gives the likes of the Tory right and UKIP genuine ammunition. Also makes EMs ambiguous position on a referendum tricky.

    Rich

  45. @ Rich

    I do generally agree with the concept of rehabilitation, but to suggest our own law courts cannot impose a full life term on somebody like Peter Sutcliffe will always be wrong in my book.
    ————–
    I’d need to check all the cases but my understanding is that the EHR case was brought by people who did not receive a life sentence from the law courts; the judge’s sentences were over-written by the Home Secretary of the time.

  46. I think if a lowly manual worker like me is not put off from posting here by the ‘high brow’ conversations then no one would be. I really don’t understand why some folk complain about the many and varied subjects that are discussed here, is there another site like it? I don’t think so!

  47. @Roland

    I think you are confused as to what “controlling the narrative” means.

    Ed M has been in control of the narrative of this news story, from day one. This was not a scandal uncovered by journalists, it was something Ed M himself took to the press. The day to day information on all of this is not being discovered by investigative journalists, but released and controlled by the Labour party. The press are now talking about Party Funding, in a way that Ed M wants them to talk about Party Funding. Everyone else is reacting to what Ed M is doing, no one is forcing Ed M to do anything but what he wants to do about this.

    It was entirely possible for Ed M to have sat on this in hopes no one found out about any of it. He didn’t, he got ahead of the story, and is steering it not letting it steer him.

    Short term 24 hour news cycle obsessives might not get that there is a long game at play. And Ed M has used 24 hours of bad headlines, to secure a position in policy debate and long term opinion that’s *in his favour*.

  48. @rich in Norway.

    Agreed. This site is great, although occasionally spoilt by people who are completely ideologically driven and can’t ever say a single good thing about Lab/Con depending on allegiance, which ironically undermines any decent post they make.

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