This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now up online here. Topline voting intention is CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%

The leaders approval ratings are minus 20 for Cameron (from minus 17 last week), minus 34 for Miliband (from minus 31 last week) and minus 51 for Clegg (from minus 49). On the regular economic trackers optimism continues to creep upwards – the feel good factor (those thinking things will get better minus those who think things will get worse) is now minus 26, now the best (or least worst) figure since April 2010.

Much of the rest of the poll dealt with Ed Miliband and the Trade Unions. Most of Ed Miliband’s ratings remain poor, and if anything are getting worse rather than improving. Only 20% think he would be up to the job of Prime Minister (down from 25% in May). Only 18% think he has provided an effective opposition to the government. Only 10% think he is a strong leader, 47% a weak leader (even amongst Labour voters only 22% think he is strong, 26% weak).

I’ve written about Ed Miliband’s poor polling figures here several times before, so won’t repeat the same discussion at length. The short version is that yes, they are pretty bad… but Labour have a lead in the polls despite Miliband’s poor figures. The question, which cannot currently be answered, is whether they’ll matter more as we get closer to an election and people’s choice is (perhaps) as much about a choice between alternate governments as a verdict on the incumbent.

29% of people think that Ed Miliband has been too close to the Unions, 13% too distant and 22% about right. 36% say don’t know. Despite all the coverage of Falkirk, the Unite row and Tom Watson’s resignation (which happened just before fieldwork started), this is almost unchanged from when YouGov asked the same question last month, suggesting that in terms of if Labour are seen as close to the Unions the row has has not made any real difference yet. Of course, that’s not just what it’s about – the Conservatives are very clearly using it to try and make Miliband look weak. Depending on what does happen it is both a risk and opportunity for Miliband. Depending on the action he takes he could end up looking weaker… or stronger.

Looking more specifically at Labour’s links to the Trade Unions, 26% think they are good thing (including a narrow majority – 53% – of Labour voters), 35% think they are a bad thing (though this only includes 9% of Labour voters). 41% of people think the unions have a lot of influence in Labour, and this is mainly seen as a bad thing (35% bad, 6% good). 33% think they do not have much influence (21% think that’s a good thing, 12% a bad thing). By 46% to 27% people take a negative view of the amount of funding Labour receives from the Unions, and by 42% to 32% people think it is unacceptable for Labour MPs to be sponsored by Unions. Once again, Labour voters take a more supportive stance – 56% think there is nothing wrong with Labour’s funding from the Unions, 60% think it is acceptable for MPs to be sponsored by Trade Unions.

Is that any different to the way funding from businesses or rich individuals would be viewed? No, probably not. Polling last year found opinions of Labour’s relationship with donors was much the same as opinions about the Conservatives, and views about a cap on donations from unions was much the same as views about a cap on donations from business.


265 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 12”

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  1. @norbold

    You are right about LDs and Iraq, but this is a polling site.

    YouGov asked about Blair’s legacy in Aug/Sept 2010…

    “To get back into power Labour need to distance themselves as much as possible from the Legacy of Tony Blair’s government”

    Con 40%, Lab 20%, LD 28%

    “Tony Blair did a lot right and won three elections – it would be a mistake for Labour to turn its back on his legacy”

    Con 20%, Lab 59%, LD 34%

    Does that prove anything? No, but you could compare with today’s YouGov which shows 18% of those 2010 LDs currently thinking that Ed is up to the job of being PM.

  2. Looks like Murray is on his way, wonder if DC is practicing his ‘we only win Wimbledon under a coalition gov’t’ line

  3. RinN
    Don’t bring sport into it. I am whacked, still recovering having done three category 1 climbs in the Pyrenees (something else for DC to congratulate – C Froome in yellow, English (sort of).

  4. @ MiM

    Alan Johnson. Probably he is a nice man. But he is a typical party bureaucrat who didn’t notice that his party espoused neoliberalism. Not surprising then that the Right wants him and AD…

  5. I’m puzzled. The headline voting intentions add up to 101% (rounding error?) with figures of 8% will not vote and 16% don’t know.
    That means the VI percentages are percentages of those voting?
    It also means that the turnout would be over 80%, assuming that none of the don’t knows made up their minds? (Higher if some did).
    An 80% turnout takes us back half a century. The average this century is about 62%. Do you have any means in your weighting to account for the 20% who say they will vote for X but who will not in fact vote at all? Do you assume the spread is the same for all parties?
    Forgive me if the answer is somewhere in your “small print”, but it does seem to me looking at voting figures in past general elections that a key factor is whether or not a party gets its supporters actually to vote.

  6. I think people want him as he’s an ordinary man of the people, not another Oxbrige elite that joint a think tank after leaving Uni and then just wormed their way into being an MP/Cabinet Member/Party leader, which all 3 parties unfortunately are run by.

  7. Howard

    Yes Chris did well today to hang on to the yellow jersey, perhaps more impressive than winning Wimbledon

  8. And Scotland wins Wimbledon!!!

  9. Is Jock O’Vitch Scotch, Irish or East European?

  10. Hopefully this rise in Scottish pride will spur them on to forego their subsidies and vote yes to independence!!!

  11. Shame to Bring Politics into it so I won’t.

    I am very Glad to see Dunblane which Has seen more than it’s share of tragedy to have something to smile about.

  12. Nice 1 Andy Murray.

    All the pols were there to see him win. Cameron, Salmond & Miliband; no camera shots of Clegg though. BBC bias or did he miss the match? ;-)

  13. @MiM

    Just for the record Scotland is a net contributor to the UK and is the third most economically productive region of the UK after London and SE England (and the latter is excluding North Sea oil which is treated as a separate region)The GERS Report and the ONS website provide more info.

  14. Actually Hireton

    The basic facts are that Scotland accounts for 8.4% of the UK population, 8.3% of the UK’s total output but 9.2% of total UK public spending.

  15. @MiM

    And the equivalent figure for tax revenue is?

  16. Hireton

    As you asked

    In the Financial year 2009/2010 Scottish total tax revenues came in at £42.7bn in 2009-10, or £8,221 per head, which compares with total public expenditure attributable to Scotland of £59.2bn, or £11,370 per head.

    On this basis, Scotland ‘got’ £16.5bn more in UK public spending in 2009-10 than it contributed to total UK revenues – or a ‘subsidy’ of around £3,150 per head.

  17. “or a ‘subsidy’ of around £3,150 per head.”

    What about their feet?

    Anyway I think they should stay English – that’s what they really want anyway.

  18. @PC

    Labour’s hypocrisy could make even the most humourless of people laugh.

  19. OZWALD

    You said :-
    “By adding together ‘neither’ plus ‘weak’ plus don’t know you concoct a misleading figure of 78% being unfavourable towards EM.”

    I said:-“( 10% “Strong”)

    ???

  20. STEVE

    @”I am very Glad to see Dunblane which Has seen more than it’s share of tragedy to have something to smile about.”

    Agreed.

    Sheer guts & determination -absolutely magnificent win.

    And what superb sportsman Novak Djokovitch is.

  21. @MitM

    Ah yes, man of the people, funnily enough recommending all the Blairite solutions the Oxbridge elite/think tanks do.

  22. Craig

    Don’t be silly, it’s style that counts not substance

  23. Well done Andy Murray and commiserations to Paul Croft.

    Anyway back on topic…
    ….
    “29% of people think that Ed Miliband has been too close to the Unions”
    _______

    I take it that’s a typo? You know the 9 should be in front of the 2!!

  24. One thing about Andy Murray, he certainly ain’t a looker!

  25. “Man of the people” does not equal “stark raving socialist”
    I’m working class, but the far left doesn’t own me, I can make my own decisions about which parties and policies I support.

    The fact that Alan Johnson is slightly more to the centre than you would like, doesn’t change the fact that he’s an ordinary working class guy.

    And on a personal level, I feel like he is politics for the right reasons, the 3 career politicians we have as leaders now, I think polling shows are seen to be more in it for themselves rather than the people they claim to represent.

    Which is another reason why although I disagree with Unite’s methods, and a lot of their policy, I think if their stated aim really was to get more ordinary folk into parliament rather than career politicians then it would be admirable. Alas I fear they probably just wanted one of their own in parliament.

  26. @Amber Star

    The Cleggs did Wimbledon last year. Miriam González Durántez is known for insisting that Nick takes an equal share of the domestic/parental duties… then again if Rafa had made it beyond the first round it might have been different matter.

    Are you telling me Boris wasn’t there waving his arms, trying to get between the camera and every other politician?

  27. RICHARD IN NORWAY

    Have you looked in the mirror lately?

    http://i.pictr.com/x37gqgny6v.png

    Oh dear people in glass houses lol

  28. @ Billy Bob

    OMG, you are right – I did not see Boris Johnson mugging the cameras!

  29. Allen

    Bugger, did you get that photo from my mum

  30. MiM

    @” I think if their stated aim really was to get more ordinary folk into parliament rather than career politicians then it would be admirable. Alas I fear they probably just wanted one of their own in parliament.”

    Agreed-otherwise any working class candidate would do-not just the ones who subscribe to Unite policy objectives.

    Sarah Woolaston MP on QT , who was selected in an open Primary, suggested that if Unite’s objective really was to widen Labour PPC selection procedures, they could support & fund open Primaries for Labour.

  31. “Are you telling me Boris wasn’t there waving his arms, trying to get between the camera and every other politician?”

    Astonishingly he wasn’t ! Hallelujah (although my husband said no, that’s because Boris wouldn’t be able to shut up long enough for a set to play, never mind a match, lol)

  32. Allen & Richard what about this looker?

    http://www.paulcroftguitarandvoice.co.uk/images/paulcroft.jpg

    Sexy, everything about him so sexy!!!

  33. Feel so hot under the collar now

  34. RIN

    “Allen

    Bugger, did you get that photo from my mum”
    ____

    Nah Nah got it from your Facebook page.. ;-)

  35. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    He looks familiar and I’m sure in his day he was a sexy beast.

    In fact I think I saw him a few posts up lol.

  36. MANINTHEMIDDLE

    He looks familiar and I’m sure in his day he was a girls screamer.

    In fact I think I saw him a few posts up lol

  37. My last comment went into moderation?

  38. MITM

    He looks familiar and I’m sure in his day he was a right looker!!

    In fact I think I saw him a few posts up lol

  39. heard a story recently about local government from a friend. She left her part-time job at the library ( two and a half hours every Saturday). The library decided to advertise it externally and 68 people applied. The library then decided to convene a panel as if it was a management position. This is a little part-time job we’re talking about.

  40. allan

    “Well done Andy Murray and commiserations to Paul Croft.”

    For what? I didn’t enter and I was born in Scotland. [I’ve said all this before – I left at the age of two ‘cps it was bleedin’ freezing and I coudn’t understand the language]

    I am molto pleased for Andy M – Plimpiks and Wimblebot in one year is impressive.

    ……………………………………………………………………………….

    “My last comment went into moderation?”

    They all should Allan.

  41. “the 3 career politicians we have as leaders now, I think polling shows are seen to be more in it for themselves rather than the people they claim to represent. ”

    Polling shows nothing of the sort: it simply shows peoples opinions and they are just that – nothing more.

    It seems highly likely to me that all the leaders are in politics for decent motives, whether we like their policies or not.

  42. Well done Murray. Great boost for UK, and as said, great for Dunblane. Djokovic too, what a great sportsman.

  43. @ Paul C

    It seems highly likely to me that all the leaders are in politics for decent motives, whether we like their policies or not.
    ——————–
    I was thinking they just wanted really good seats at Wimbledon.

  44. So -what’s next?

    Oh yes-the Aussie Cricket Team.

    Things can only get better……….why does that ring a bell?

  45. Amber

    Possible I s’pose but a long process considering they could buy them easily enough and still have some spare dosh for strawberries.

    Anyway I always like to think the best of people – even Allan, for whom I have high hopes once he gets to BIG SKOOL and is weaned off of politics onto sex, drugs and rock’n’roll.

  46. why is Murray winning a ‘great boost to the UK’ – I find him boorish and just because he is British I am not going to go over the top about him. Well played but that is as far as it goes really

    He does not represent the country (as the GB and I Lions did yesterday) but rather himself and his bank balance.

    He is a great tennis player but so is Federer/Djokovic and I do not choose on over the other because of nationality.

    I find the coverage of Wimbledon a bit nauseating to say the least

  47. BCROMBIE

    Which was “the country” that the Lions represented?

  48. @Paul Croft “Polling shows nothing of the sort: IT simply SHOWS peoples OPINIONS and they are just that – nothing more.”

    My comment was:

    “I think polling shows they are SEEN to be more in it for themselves rather than the people they claim to represent.”

    I was talking about an opinion. Funnily enough that’s what opinion polls, tend to show!!!

  49. Man in the Middle

    When quoting spend in various parts of the UK, do make sure that you include all expenditure – not just “identifiable expenditure” – it makes a big difference.

  50. OldNat

    Okay – I get your point but it would represent the UK without the complication of the ?Irish Question’

    I think though it is great that we see GB and Ireland playing together as one. Similar to Europe at the Ryder Cup.

    Murray represents himself – no problem with that but I judge him as an individual player and don’t have much time for him. Indifferent that he won but don’t see why it is ‘Great for Britain’

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