This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. It shows Labour’s lead down to five points for the second YouGov poll in a row.

I suspect these are two polls at the lower end of the normal margin of error and the underlying average will still turn out to be a six or seven point lead, but all the same, the lead appears to be falling. As ever, any change in the lead invites explanation, something that polls are much less good at doing. My guess is that it is a reflection of the slight increase in economic optimism (or decrease in economic pessimism) that we’ve seen over the last couple of months, something that was perhaps masked a bit by the boost UKIP got from the local elections, but is becoming apparent now that the amount of publicity that UKIP are receiving has fallen a bit.

It is just a guess of course, and things are rarely explained by a single factor. I’ve seen some people ascribe it to Labour’s economic announcements over recent weeks, though personally I don’t think policy statements by opposition parties get noticed enough to have any real immediate effect on polls. Alternatively it could be the dividing lines emerging over welfare, or just the Conservative party avoiding being actively at each others throats for the last couple of weeks. It bottom line is that it’s difficult to know what actually moves voting intention, my only advice is to avoid the mistake of assuming that it must be the issue that you care about that’s done it.


60 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 38, LD 8, UKIP”

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  1. This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. It shows Labour’s lead down to five points for the second YouGov poll in a row.

    I suspect these are two polls at the lower end of the normal margin of error and the underlying average will still turn out to be a six or seven point lead, but all the same, the lead appears to be falling
    __________

    Oh dear.

  2. LOL Allan. When polling’s close this place reminds me of footie boards and the banter you get when rival teams are battling over playoff places or relegation…

  3. Allan

    9.19 PM is a bit late for you surely? Have you done yer homework and why aren’t you in bed now?

  4. Carfew

    Couldn’t agree more with your earlier comments

    All the raving about Maglev technology at the moment and the first commercial operation is at Brum Airport in the early 80s! What a fantastic example of British innovation

    Birmingham Airport is a cracking little airport as well

  5. The Birmingham Airport LINK was actually put back into operation in 2003, with the maglev parts replaced by cable-cars. The existing infrastructure meant the replacement was completed and operational at a fraction of the time or cost of comparable systems. It’s operation saw a reduction in car parking at the airport.

    The LINK will be extended to meet HS2, which makes improving BHX an alternative to expanding LHR.

  6. CARFREW

    Yes It is a bit like the banter on footy forums but I suspect the banter on here is a little more serious lol.

  7. PAULCROFT

    “Allan

    9.19 PM is a bit late for you surely? Have you done yer homework and why aren’t you in bed now?”
    ______

    Now now Mr Croft it’s the School holidays in Scotland so no homework for at least 6 weeks.

  8. There’s some good U-tubes of the 1983 election – a lot can change in 2 years!

  9. Although economic forecasting is HIGHLY uncertain it really does look as though the UK Economy is growing faster than anyone dared hope. The latest data point to growth of 0.5% in Q2 and picking up further, in which case instead of 0.8% for the year we are looking at nearer 2%.

    This will help the C vote in two ways:
    1. Support of the Government naturally tends to rise as the economy grows.
    2. Labour nailed their colours to the mast: the economic policy had FAILED and the government MUST CHANGE COURSE. If it’s now seen to be succeeding their credibility is damaged.

    If the underlying Labour lead has fallen from about 10% to about 6% in the last 3 months then it is plainly possible that it will be minus 10% at the next GE. In other words, the outcome is HIGHLY uncertain at the moment.

  10. ‘2. Labour nailed their colours to the mast: the economic policy had FAILED and the government MUST CHANGE COURSE. If it’s now seen to be succeeding their credibility is damaged.’

    It’s a matter of perspective of course – with the vast majority of people’s wages rising by way under inflation I think few normal voters will view Tory economic policy as something they love…

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