This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This is a bit more typical of YouGov’s recent polling after a rather incongruous eleven point Labour lead in yesterday’s poll – the underlying average in YouGov’s recent polling appears to be a Labour lead of about eight points.

Given it was the first poll following the spending review (as I said, not something I expect to have any particular impact), it also included some economic trackers. George Osborne’s approval rating continues to be solidly negative – 52% think he is doing a bad job as Chancellor, 25% a good job. However, he has extended his lead over Ed Balls on who would make the better Chancellor. 32% now prefer Osborne, 23% Balls.

Also out today is a new batch of polling from Lord Ashcroft, this time looking at Boris Johnson. I shall try to write a bit more about Boris in the days to come….


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. First!

  2. Second, Labour’s lead looks a bit low.

  3. Looks like the 8 point lead with Yougov is here to stay. I guess only time will tell…

  4. “I shall try to write a bit more about Boris in the days to come….”

    Please dont Anthony. He gets enough publicity already.

  5. I like Boris in a ‘he’s totally barmy’ kind of way. But he’s most definitely not PM material IMO.

  6. Yesterday’s by-election results are really quite interesting,as several people have noted on pt, two Lab gains from Tories with UKIP doing the dirty work ,as it were. ln one the Lab % DECLINED and they still won.
    The UKIP vote total was 666, presumably their candidate was Mark O’Thebeast ?

  7. @ John Ruddy

    I hear you are transferring to Chelsea for a £5m up front fee – good luck at your new club!

  8. @Ewen

    I found this comment here:

    Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/2770/elections-27th-june-2013?page=3#ixzz2XVqPursc

    “UKIP performances in yesterday’s by-elections:
    BASILDON – Billericay East: 29.84%
    DARTFORD – Newtown: 22.71%
    PLYMOUTH – Southway: 26.45%
    RUTLAND – Ketton: 17.47%
    SOUTH TYNESIDE – Cleadon and East Boldon: 26.06%
    SOUTH TYNESIDE – Primrose: 34.64%
    WORCESTERSHIRE – Stourport-on-Severn: 25.97%

    UKIP overall performance in contested by-elections yesterday:

    UKIP votes: 3,705
    Total votes: 13,863
    UKIP percentage: 26.73%

    UKIP overall performance, including Newark & Sherwood where they didn’t stand:

    UKIP votes: 3,705
    Total votes: 15,719
    UKIP percentage: 23.57%

    ——————————————-
    Reading that is does look like UKIP are holding up in actual votes more than polls of the last 2 weeks seem to be reflecting.

    And as you mention, Labour are winning as a result.

  9. interesting yougov figures,thursday had labour with an 11% lead ,today with 6%. probably around 8 in reality.

  10. @BigFatRon
    Yes, although what I really need a first team football if I am to get into the reckoning for the world cup. Not sure I will get that at Chelski.

  11. Living costs have risen 25% in the past five years and placed an “unprecedented” financial burden on the poor, a report has found.

    The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said rising childcare and energy costs, coupled with stagnating wages and benefit cuts, widened the poverty gap.

    Worst affected are pensioners and single people, it said.

    -Remarkably 1 in 4 People in the YG Poll still think George Osborne is doing a good job

  12. @John Ruddy
    You’re not really THE John Ruddy are you? If you are, I know you from your Cambridge United days!
    BFR

  13. Richard
    Thanks for that link,l only tend to peruse one blog,and that’s good ole UKPR,why try the rest when you can have the best eh?

    Looking at the UKIP vote yesterday, if l was a Tory strategist l would a) be extremely worried and b) be looking for an electoral pact with said UKIP, what l would not be doing is listening to those who say UKIP is a threat to Labour as well and that therfore everything is fine.

  14. @ John Ruddy

    It still amazes me that who wins the position of the Mayor Of London has boiled down to which candidate is the most amusingly bonkers and surreal. Boris vs Izzard is going to be cringeworthy.

  15. So – if repeated at the 2015 GE I just hope the UKIP voters are happy that they simply helped Labour win – is that what they really want?
    If it is then thats fine BUT if they are centre right voters what the hell are they thinking of because that will be all they will succeed in doing!

  16. Sine
    If you asked most LD supporters prior to the 2010 Election if they would prefer Tories or Labour to win the large majority would have said Labour and yet we have a Tory Led government supported by the LD parliamentary party.

    Less than half of current LD supporters trust the LD/Tory Coalition to deal effectively either with the deficit or the economy. UKIP supporters show an even greater lack of trust.

    Presumably UKIP supporters express their intent to vote UKIP because they would like to see a UKIP Government .

    The Conservatives have failed to win an outright victory at an election on their own for over 20 Years long before the rise of the FARAGISTAS I suspect UKIP support has made the possibility of Tory victory slightly more remote in 2015 but for any incumbent Government in the current economic situation victory would be against the odds.

    For what it’s worth I would expect a small but workable Labour majority but anything from a Labour Landslide to a LD/Labour Coalition is possible

  17. Interesting Poll from Ashcroft on the Boris question while many people seem to think He is an entertaining chap only UKIP supporters put him as their first choice for PM .

    So if Boris is the answer any idea what the Question is?

  18. Steve – “If you asked most LD supporters prior to the 2010 Election if they would prefer Tories or Labour to win the large majority would have said Labour and yet we have a Tory Led government supported by the LD parliamentary party.”

    Here you go, forced choice question from April 2010:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-Suntrackers-100413.pdf

    37% of Lib Dem voters said Conservative, 41% said Labour

  19. But 26% said ‘Conservative/LD coalition to 38% for Labour/LD…

  20. Looks much more even than I would have expected. The 2010 Lib figures, I mean.

    “For what it’s worth I would expect a small but workable Labour majority but anything from a Labour Landslide to a LD/Labour Coalition is possible”

    I would argue that anything at this stage seems possible….even a Tory majority is possible, however unlikely on current polling figures. I would say that a Tory minority government or Con/Lib coalition certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, but it does seem considerably less likely than a Lib/lab coalition or Lab majority for the moment at least IMO.

    Personally, I think the Tories should at least try to get Labour in a coalition with the Libs – on anything like current polling numbers, a Con-Lib or Lab-Lib would probably be tricky and fraught with difficulties from the outset. I doubt a coalition involving a much depleted Lib arithmetic would last the full 5 years.

  21. SINE NOMINE/ without name:

    I think UKIP will fade in the GE campaign in 2015.

    The LD vote will go tory I think.

  22. interesting that Balls continues to fall behind Osbourne in polling. It seems to me that George Osbourne is growing in confidence as he continues to finally get across the reality of the countries finances the Conservatives took on.

    It comes to something when Labour supporters are writing articles like this.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100223633/spending-review-ed-balls-is-now-sleeping-with-the-fishes/

  23. Steve

    “The conservatives have failed to win an ouright victory at an election for over 20yrs”.

    The only party out of power longer than the Tories for an extended period was Labour who managed 18yrs in a row, its true the Tories never won the election outright in 2010, after being out of power a rather modest 13yrs, but they still formed the government in 2010.

    What can we draw from these long periods in the wilderness, only that parties never give up hope, just because you havan’t won an election for a while certainly doesn’t mean you can never win, and if you have to share so be it ,being in power is everything to a politician especially if your the senior partner.

  24. @RICH

    It comes to something when Labour supporters are writing articles like this.

    ————–

    He’s a Labour supporter the way Heseltine supported Thatcher…

  25. @Rich

    I think you will find that the winner in the best Chancellor is none of the above. Both are equally unpopular.

    Who would make the best chancellor?
    Winner = Don’t know at 45%

    Who do you trust to make the right decisions about the deficit?
    Winner = Neither at 34%

    Do you think Osborne is doing a good job?
    Winner = bad job at 52%

    And if you look at the deficit/borrowing figures, it seems the public have got it right. Both are failing.

  26. @STEVE

    “So if Boris is the answer any idea what the Question is?”

    ————

    What was the name of the spider in a classic track by The Who?

    Who will lead the Tory party after the next election?

  27. Rich 28% Osborne 26% Balls with 45% saying don’t know is hardly a ringing endorsement for anyone.

  28. @ Carfew re. Mr. Hodges,

    In the time it took me to log in, you stole the words right out of my mouth (the bytes right out of my keyboard?)

    @ Sine Nomine,

    So – if repeated at the 2015 GE I just hope the UKIP voters are happy that they simply helped Labour win – is that what they really want?

    It depends on the Ukip voter. Remember, a fair few are ex-Lab or ex-(LD -> Lab), and probably prefer a Labour government to this one. As for the core group, Nigel Farage has openly said that he sees Ukip as an analogue to the SDP. One presumes therefore that the agenda is to deliberately split the right and punish the Tories electorally (in the process allowing Labour in) until the Tories bow to the pressure to become more like Ukip.

    Of course, the Gang of Four had a the germ of a good idea (last time you’ll ever see me type those words) in that they wanted Labour to move to the more electable centre. Farage wants the Tories to move to the less electable fringe, which strikes me as a mistake for getting his favoured policies implemented. Although he’s certainly succeeded in getting an EU referendum on the national agenda, so in Ukip’s narrow scope as a Eurosceptic pressure group rather than its broader scope as a Fifties revival movement, he’s been quite successful.

  29. Yes but Steve, It’s coming to something when staunch supporter Hodges is critical of Labour, something that almost never happens every five minutes over and over again and possibly till the end of time…

  30. @Spearmint

    Lol, yeah I probably beat even everyone to it. ‘ Cos I’m having a coffee and not busy, and maybe a bit wired on caffeine…

    Dunno what Rich’s on tho’…

  31. The problem for the Tories is that they always get their voters out, 2010 was the best chance they had for winning an OM… they did not.

    UKIP was not such a factor then, 2015 Tories will bleed votes to UKIP and in some area’s it could mean losing the seat they would not have expected to.

  32. Also worth noting that these were local by-elections, the type of election in which the Can’t-Be-Arsed-To-Vote Party performs at its best, followed by parties that draw their main support from older people with stable lives and abundant spare time. We would expect Ukip to be at their peak vote share here (except possibly for the one-issue niche market of the European elections; it will be interesting to see the local vs. European party percentages in 2014).

    Even if every current Ukipper remains a Ukipper, the Tories would likely get a higher percentage of votes in a general election.

  33. ” It seems to me that George Osbourne is growing in confidence as he continues to finally get across the reality of the countries finances the Conservatives took on.”

    This from Money week,

    The Coalition has spent the last two years desperately and very publically trying to get our finances in order. We’ve had an “austerity” budget. We’ve had tax hikes. We’ve had “the cuts”.

    But for all that, our national debt is still growing at an incredible rate.

    Despite David Cameron’s talk of “austerity”, he’s going to add an estimated £700 billion to the national debt in just five years. That’s more than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown added to the national debt in eleven years. It’s more than every British government of the past 100 years put together.

    The fact is, when you look at our finances as a whole, the Coalition isn’t cutting anything. State spending is going up… our national debt is going up… and our interest payments are going up.

    By the next general election in 2015, our national debt is estimated to stand at almost £1.4 trillion.

  34. ” It seems to me that George Osbourne is growing in confidence as he continues to finally get across the reality of the countries finances the Conservatives took on.”

    This from Money week,

    The Coalition has spent the last two years desperately and very publically trying to get our finances in order. We’ve had an “austerity” budget. We’ve had tax hikes. We’ve had “the cuts”.

    But for all that, our national debt is still growing at an incredible rate.

    Despite David Cameron’s talk of “austerity”, he’s going to add an estimated £700 billion to the national debt in just five years. That’s more than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown added to the national debt in eleven years. It’s more than every British government of the past 100 years put together.

    The fact is, when you look at our finances as a whole, the Coalition isn’t cutting anything. State spending is going up… our national debt is going up… and our interest payments are going up.

    By the next general election in 2015, our national debt is estimated to stand at almost £1.4 trillion.

  35. Looking some more at those local election results, here’s a point of minor interest: it seems that Oop North Ukip are continuing to hold their position as the definitive alternative to Labour, as we saw in South Shields.

    There’s no reason for this vote to return home to the Tories (or for that matter, to Labour) at a general election because it’s already a protest vote; most of these are safe Labour seats. So what does this mean for the national vote shares?

  36. @AW

    Can you take that 37% / 41% split and factor it into the 36% Con 29% Lab election results?

    :)

  37. ‘Boris question while many people seem to think He is an entertaining chap only UKIP supporters put him as their first choice for PM .’

    Further proof that UKIP are nuts…

  38. @carfrew,

    Gin @ Tonic, with lemon & cucumber. (gin is Hendrick’s, lovely with a slice of cucumber.

    Rich

  39. @Willy,

    I do agree with one part of your note. We actually have barely had any austerity. It’s scary people think otherwise, as it could and probably will get a lot harder under Lab or Cons from 2015. I.e. far more cuts and big tax rises.

  40. @Willy

    At last somebody can see what I have been banging on about for the last two years. The days of “big state ” are over for good. The Welfare state as we have known it since WW2 is finished.

  41. chrislane1945

    “Labour’s lead looks a bit low”
    __________

    It’s probably due to the economy picking up rather than polling deficiencies.

  42. cl1945

    “The LD vote will go tory I think.”

    You must share your analytical methods Chris. The above is based on what?

  43. paulcroft
    ……

    cl1945

    “The LD vote will go tory I think.”

    “You must share your analytical methods Chris. The above is based on what?”
    ______________

    Should be interesting.

  44. The only things that I can think of that have happened with Labour recently is them taking a more ‘adult’ possibly ‘senile’ attitude to the deficit, but that wouldn’t make sense would it?

  45. RiN

    It didn’t make sense -no.

    According to the responses to the last two questions in this Poll it lost them 3%pts of support, and increased Cons’ support by 1%pt.

  46. turk

    “The only party out of power longer than the Tories for an extended period was Labour”

    I take it that, for the purpose of argument, you are ignoring all other parties that have competed in GEs over the past two hundred years or so?

    Good plan.

  47. Re “core vote” I wonder if the cons are now becalmed with a fairly reasonable low combined with a fairly poor “high”. I say that by looking at their VI% over a lot of years and also, as I have said before, comparing their proportionate drop in support to that of their coalition partners.

    They may be supported in a less volatile way than Labour [perhaps at between 29-36% or so] but it won’t get them even close to an overall majority [with apologies to TOH’s optimistic forecast].

  48. allan

    paulcroft
    ……

    cl1945

    “The LD vote will go tory I think.”

    “You must share your analytical methods Chris. The above is based on what?”
    ______________

    “Should be interesting.”

    Alan: if you get your homework done before bedtime you can stay up late tomorrow night and play UKPR with the big boys.

    Ya wee bampot so yooooze are.

  49. Blimey !!!!!

    A hat-trick of great posts!

  50. @ Paul,

    They may be supported in a less volatile way than Labour [perhaps at between 29-36% or so] but it won’t get them even close to an overall majority

    Ah, but you’re failing to take into account the massive influx of Lib Dem defectors they’ll get at the general election due to… um, help me out here, Chris.

    More seriously though, you’re right about the Tories, but I wonder how volatile Labour really are post-Clegg. We could be looking at a situation where both major parties are becalmed at around 34-36%, which would bring us back to alternation with an even distribution of voters or PR, but under FPTP will doom the Tories permanent opposition.

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