This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This is a bit more typical of YouGov’s recent polling after a rather incongruous eleven point Labour lead in yesterday’s poll – the underlying average in YouGov’s recent polling appears to be a Labour lead of about eight points.

Given it was the first poll following the spending review (as I said, not something I expect to have any particular impact), it also included some economic trackers. George Osborne’s approval rating continues to be solidly negative – 52% think he is doing a bad job as Chancellor, 25% a good job. However, he has extended his lead over Ed Balls on who would make the better Chancellor. 32% now prefer Osborne, 23% Balls.

Also out today is a new batch of polling from Lord Ashcroft, this time looking at Boris Johnson. I shall try to write a bit more about Boris in the days to come….


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. Paul
    Sat up to watch the Stones at Glastonbury. Great music, great musicianship, and ole blubber mouth every bit the showman. Loved it. Cramp in left hip and sacro-lumber prevented dancing on living room floor.

  2. @spearmint

    if you can get 5% lending to the U S to build houses will you lend to the U K at 2%?

  3. @ Mike N

    “why do we treat ‘data’ as singular (eg as in “the data is supplied”) when it’s actually the plural of datum?”

    Sadly the majority of people do so out of ignorance, not because it is correct.

    I always treat data as plural. “The data show, the data are..” etc.

  4. should be latest YG
    Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 11%, Ukip 11%; APP -31

    MOE or movement??? I hope the former like the recent 42/31.

    Apparently Observer poll has Lab 10% lead.

    Wolf – inflation or threat of inflation devalues the principle sum and/or an expected depreciation of the relative value of the currencies does the same.

  5. MY OED says referendums or referenda are correct –

  6. Sunday Times poll have a 5 point lead for Labour. Labour not trusted over the economy etc

    Oh dear Ed..Is it the voice or lack of policy?

  7. wow, just a 5% lead now. Has to be linked to the changing economic narrative from Lab??

  8. @Mike N

    Data in normal usage is sensibly single as it refers to a set of data rather than to an individual datum. For example with opinion polls the data is the set which gives you the party percentages (not the meta data/datum of the percentages themselves, although since they are separate calculations you could argue that they are a set or array by themselves).

    So, the set is singular.

  9. The Opinium Poll Makes different reading.

    With Labour on 37 the Tories on a very Low 27 LD on a miserable 7 and UKIP on 19

    Perhaps AW can offer some insight on the reasons for the huge disparity.

    Mind You both have Labour support at around the high 30’s.

    The Poll is actually pretty consistent with their last One on 1st June which put the Tories on 26 Labour on 37 and UKIP with their highest polling ever of 21.

    I suppose all you can read into this is Labour’s core support is somewhat higher than the Tories by around 5 to 10% but the rest are all over the place.

  10. I don’t think The Observer poll looks right at all. Not because I don’t want it to be, but because UKIP on 19% more than double the Liib Dems just looks all wrong. UKIP have had their little peak, and reality looks to have set in now back down to 10-14% as a more accurate range.

  11. RICH

    “wow, just a 5% lead now. Has to be linked to the changing economic narrative from Lab??”
    ____________

    I never knew they had one??

  12. I’m getting confused.

    I thought Cons needed a 7% lead to get an OM.

    In today’s ST , Peter Kellner says Labour need a 7% lead to get an OM-because of LibDem incumbency factor & NeW MP success rates.

    ???

  13. “Now now don’t jump to conclusions. Being critical of Labour doesn’t automatically put me on the right wing.
    That Opinium poll btw… Just ignore it.”

    Maybe not automatically but don’t forget that all of us see your every comment….

    Yup, if the polls show a result you don’t like, just ignore it is how it seems to work….sheesh !

    @Steve – yes, I’m hoping AW can help us all understand why there is such a huge difference.

    I’m not sure we can place a great deal of trust in a poll that has the 18-24s thinking that the coalition is good for them & that the economy is doing well & that they expect their incomes to improve when this is the group that has huge unemployment, student loans and lack of affordable housing but what would I know.

  14. @steve, Chordata,

    I too would appreciate some commentary from AW on the Observer poll.

  15. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    @”I never knew they had one??”

    Did you miss it?

    It went from “All cuts are wrong” , to ” We won’t reverse any of the cuts”.

    It’s subtle , I grant you-but the Eds made “big” speeches explaining it-so it must have been important.

  16. Chordata

    “Yup, if the polls show a result you don’t like, just ignore it is how it seems to work….sheesh”
    ________

    Well that is exactly what I’m seeing here. The Sunday Times poll have the Labour lead shrinking to 5% yet several Labour posters have ignored it and jumped onto the Observer poll..Indeed……..sheesh!!! ;)

  17. Hi, first time poster here, I’ve been reading this site for a long time now and finally thought I’d get round to registering.

    Looking at the entrails of the YouGov poll, the Con numbers have been weighed up by about 10% and the Labour numbers down by about 5%, so the raw numbers are more favourable to Labour.

    Nevertheless, as the Observer poll elsewhere confirms, Labour have a job to do on the economy and need more clarity on what they would do differently relative to the Conservatives.

    The good news, I suppose, is that (according to Opinium’s poll) whilst most voters blame Labour for the deficit, they continue to have a healthy 10% lead. That isn’t necessarily inconsistent – voters may feel Labour (and especially Brown) made a mess of things in their last few years but still prefer them overall to the Cons.

  18. Sine Nomine, your dream was prophetic!

    MoE on an 8 point lead, though- average this one in with the 11 point lead from two days ago. And 38% is roughly where Labour has been for the past month. The interesting bit is that Tory 33%. It’s clearly come off Ukip in this particular poll, but that Ukip -> Tory flux is beginning to look like a trend.

    @ Wolf,

    The UK has a central bank, and can therefore lend to itself. But I don’t want to set off another circular, partisan economic argument; my point was that there is no mystery behind Labour’s economic stance. There’s no reason why Ed Balls’ fundamental economic beliefs would have changed in the past three years. Most of his predictions have been borne out, and even austerity boosters like the IMF are coming round to his position.

    However, he’s an opposition spokesman, not an academic, and his job is to win the next election. I don’t think we need to look farther than today’s YouGov poll to understand why Labour’s current policy bears little correspondence to the advice they’ve been giving the Government. Jim Jam’s efforts to provide an economic rationale for their policy shift, though valiant, are probably wasted.

  19. Rich mentions that the high UKIP figure in the Observer poll doesn’t look right. Well, in local government by-elections the other night, UKIP performed very strongly – I don’t have the exact numbers but I think it was well over 20% of the total vote – so maybe Opinium’s figure is correct. If anything, YG might be under-estimating UKIP support although I have no doubt it has declined a little since their May high.

  20. Rich
    0n Thursday in a number of real elections across the country , UKIP got in excess of 25% of the vote, so why you think 0pinium are overstating them at 19% is beyond me.

    Wot’s the numbers for YG before adjustment ?

  21. Labour’s announcement on Coalition spending is actually quite cleverly nuanced. It might mean a lot – that Labour’s policies if elected will parallel Coalition policies. Or it might mean almost nothing – our journey begins where theirs ends, we won’t pretend those cuts were never made. They’ll tell us which when the time comes. But Labour needs a politician more nuanced than Big Ed to tell the story.

  22. Peter Kellner’s dim view of Labour’s prospects has been a mystery to me for several months now. There are plenty of good reasons to take a dim view of Labour’s prospects, but he never seems to give them. Iinstead he says weird stuff like this.

    The Ashcroft marginal polling- which Mr. Kellner must know about, because it came from his polling firm!- measured the Lib Dem incumbency advantage in Labour’s Lib Dem targets. It takes about 3% off Labour’s vote share, leaving the Lib Dems a mere 20% of the vote behind. Even if you dock 5% off that 20 point lead to compensate for the downward drift of Labour’s polling since March, I don’t see how his figures can possibly add up. Tory incumbency in the Midlands might matter, but the Lib Dems?

  23. Re-Rich and UKIP. I was just about to say the same thing as JOHN and Ewen, so I won’t say it now! :-)

  24. Steve – Opinium have put their higher “other” and UKIP scores (and therefore other knock-on divergences) down to a lack of any political weighting on their samples. I am inclined to agree.

    Frankly, I have always been surprised that an online poll without any political controls on the sample isn’t *more* different from everyone else – I would have thought it left the political make up of their samples purely at the mercy of who joined their panel.

  25. @ Amber Star

    “I think there are two reasons for JM raising his profile:

    Firstly, we have the referendum in 2014 so all Labour MPs & MSPs are wanting to be noticed by the public to show how much influence Scotland has in the UK; &

    Secondly, I think JM has become genuinely much more concerned about armed forces personnel since he got the shadow MOD brief. He seems to have become increasingly aware that equality issues seem to be ‘magnified’ in the forces with women, gay & ethnic people still being very much under-represented therein & facing exceptional difficulties. The forces perhaps being a bit of a refuge for bigotry is bad for the bigots too. It makes life very hard for them – & those around them – when they leave the forces.

    So I actually think JM has a renewed vigour regarding equality for more altruistic reasons than self-advancement.”

    Fair enough, I’m not trying to stir the pot or anything on leadership challenges to Ed Miliband. I was altogether pleased by seeing JM’s recent outspokenness on LGBT rights issues but my curiosity was slightly piqued. He’s done a good job on being shadow MOD and he’s getting his name out there. I feel like if Cameron is in the tank and Clegg is in the tank and Labour continues to struggle, there might be some move to replace Ed. So I wonder if some are auditioning subtly for the role. think he’s definitely being altruistic on his desire to keep Scotland in the UK.

    On an unrelated note, I’m attending the Los Angeles Mayoral Inauguration tomorrow (hopefully have good seats). The high temperature is expected to be 100 degrees (or 38 degrees celsius). Should I wear a suit? I want to be formally attired for the event (and business casual might be too informal) but it will be quite warm out. I’m even wondering if I can take water.

    Here’s something very cool about tomorrow. I’m not going to drive all the way downtown and live the nightmare that is finding a parking spot. Instead, I’m going to take the train down there.

    And here’s something that sucks. Of the 11 public servants being sworn in tomorrow, exactly zero are women. And the other seven not being sworn in are all men too. The City of Los Angeles, the second largest in the U.S., will have completely male governance. That’s the first time since 1968 actually. At least until July 23rd anyway. :(

    @ Paul Croft

    “I find JM a very impressive and thoughtful person.”

    100% Agreed!!

  26. @anthony.

    So are you by definition saying you would trust the YouGov poll more due to the controls & weighting?

    rich

  27. Rich – well OBVIOUSLY I would trust the poll that I do! Pope says that Catholicism is probably the best religion, Bear champions the woods as best bathroom location, etc, etc.

    I trend to try and explain the differences here though, rather than just say which one I think is best

  28. AW
    Thanks

    Is it just coincidence or the make up of their panel then that YG and Opinium show Labour support normally at around the same level while the rest is so different?

    Or is there something else I am missing?

    Regarding the YG IMHO Labour were mistaken in buying into the Tory The only way is austerity plan, both politically and economically and I suspect this has led to a slight movement of disaffected LD’s back to the LD party on the basis of if cuts are going to be the order of the day then it doesn’t matter who is making them.

    I also think they might have suffered from Ball’s rightly identifying the longer term demographic issues in relation to payments and cost of a growing inactive older section of the population.

    The perils of being Honest when your are talking about a section of the community who regularly vote based on their self interest is apparent.

  29. Steve – depends how you mean. In one sense it’s pure co-incidence, obviously depending on a panel’s make up it could be more Labour, less Labour, more Tory, less Tory, whatever. That is happens to be Lab that’s about the same and Tories that are different is just chance.

    In another sense, it’s not co-incidence, because it seems to be partly a knock-on effect from Opinium showing much higher support for UKIP, which is probably something that affects the level of Conservative support more than the level of Labour support.

    Hope that makes sense!

  30. Thanks
    What do you think about PK ‘s view reported earlier that Labour need a 7% lead to get an overall majority . Looking at your swingometer and from past elections a 7% lead would result in iro a 70 seat majority.

  31. I see the concept of non-partisan posting has gone oot the window in the orgiastic response to a 5 point Lab lead.

    Of course a 5 point lead and the 11 point lead we saw earlier in the week are both entirely consistent with a “real” lead of 8 points.

    Which is where we have been for a few months.

    Which makes me wonder: why all the whooping and hollering? And the cringingly partisan bilge being spouted?

  32. Well, one of Peter’s points (the double incumbency bonus that many Conservative MPs in Labour target seats will get at the next election) is undoubtedly correct – it is the reason, for example, that the 1.8% swing from Lab to Conservative in 2001 got the Conservatives the princely sum of 1 extra seat.

    The other one about Lib Dem incumbency being hard to overcome is true as far as it goes, but there’s a chance it might be cancelled out on this front by bigger drops in Lib Dem support in the sort of areas where they are up against Labour. I think that one’s an open question.

    In summary, first time incumbency bonus means Labour almost certainly need a bigger lead in practice than they do on paper. Setting the bar as high as 6-7% though sounds a bit high, I think they could do it on less than that.

  33. @lefty.

    Quite agree. Lead is about 8 points, which is an improvement for the Tories, but not a big deal. The parameters of the MOE are important, so that YG being “able” to show at 5 point lead is significant. But there’s no new story here.

    I would say that the righties haven’t acted any differently to the lefties confronted with similar polls the other way round, though.

  34. Not all of us Neil – new thread by the way

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