This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%. The eleven points for UKIP is the lowest YouGov have shown since the local elections (indeed, its the lowest of any poll since then). All the usual caveats apply about unusual figures normally turning out to be outliers, but it is certainly in line with a gradual unwinding of UKIP support as their immediate publicity boost from their local election successes unwinds. It is also worth noting that their level of support is still up on earlier in the year, so even if the short term trend in their support may be downwards, the longer term trend is still positive. Full tabs are here.

Later on today we have the government’s spending review. As I’ve noted before, the annual budget is one of those events that actually gets noticed by the public and can make a difference to voting intention. The spending review almost certainly ISN’T like that – don’t expect any big impact.

Naturally there has been plenty of past polling on the cuts – YouGov do a regular raft of “cuts trackers”, asking if the cuts are good or bad for the economy, if they are fair, if they are too fast and too deep and so on. The tracking data is all here. In summary opposition to the cuts has declined a bit since last year, but the broad picture remains the same – people think the cuts are bad for the economy and being done unfairly, but they think they are necessary, and are more likely to blame Labour for them than the present government. In short, people don’t like the medicine, they think the medicine may be making things worse… but they see no alternative but to take it.

On specific questions on where the cuts should fall, people tend to want to see the NHS and education protected from cuts, and their first preference for where cuts should fall is overseas aid (ironically the three areas where the government has ringfenced spending to some degree). The most divisive areas tend to be defence and welfare, where they are significant bodies of opinion that both want to see them protected, and want to see them prioritised for cuts. 20% would like to see defence face larger cuts, 17% would like it to be protected from cuts; 39% would like welfare to face larger cuts, 16% would like to see it protected from cuts.

7 Responses to “Latest YouGov poll and today’s spending review”

  1. Labour will be relieved to hit the magic 40% again even if its only an outlier

  2. Labour have reached 40% three times before in June: today’s total is not in any normal usage of the term an outlier.

    Labour have spent the whole of June in the 38% – 40% on YouGov.You can either say that’s their share or settle for the commonest figure, 39%.Anything else distorts the information we have.

    For anyone wanting to go negative on Labour you need to go back to April and say that Labour has been unable to retrieve the losses in support in that month, which is true – but not necessarily too concerning in the absence of a clear trend downwards since.

  3. Agreed, that 40% is a minimum figure for Labour, but they should be at 45%, I think.

  4. It is difficult to look at the spending review without being partisan, but I will give it a try.

    The problem to now is half the cuts have been made in capital(infrastructure) investment which is the area which has the greatest multiplier in relation to growth and where arguably cuts stifle recovery. It’s a little bit like having to get on your bike to find work and selling the bike.

    This in combination with international factors has meant that growth is no where near target although the total cuts planned are actually slightly ahead of plan (if you exclude increased welfare spend because of the lack of growth and lower tax revenues).

    It is possible that the Government may have realised the error of their ways and this spending round will see some significant infrastructure spend.

    If it does it would bolster their economic credibility.

    Probably the area which would have the greatest immediate benefit would be a significant plan for social housing construction. £10 Billion has been taken out of the housing budget in the last 3 Years.

    However, Osborne who I think everyone accepts is a very political chancellor, may find this politically unacceptable and will opt for longer term and less contentious infrastructure plans or will IMHO blame it all on Labour and the Eurozone and do nothing constructive at all. .

  5. Cost of HS2 up £10bn to £42.6bn, transport secretary tells MPs…
    Ed Balls gets his extra £10bn of spending on infrastructure ?
    LOL (or maybe not).

  6. Another new thread – Anthony is working at double time today!

  7. AMBER
    I have just been listening to Ed Balls responding to the Chancellor’s proposed cuts and 2015 to 2018 energy and infrastructure investment proposals: inflation will in reality mean a lessening in public capital investment, which Labour will have to work with; but the main failure is in the lack of investmentnow of the available 10Bn – which Balls would put to housing, creating 400,000 new houses (harking back to the 50’s) and 600,000 jobs. I’ld like to see local housing-related infrastructure and energy investment in the housing package, and both clearly linked to long-term roads, rail and airport construction.