The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3). As with other recent polling ComRes show UKIP coming off the boil a bit after their post-local election high, but still well above the levels of support they had earlier this year. Full tabs are here.


143 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 14”

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  1. STEVE

    That’s kind-but no thanks.

    I’m anticipating one or two. Can feel them in the wind.

  2. Electoral Calculus base their prediction on polls & trends. Maths & stats eh? that can’t be right. I expect it’s like that ‘borrowing at 90% = recession’ thingy which had all those formula & method mistakes… So it’s probably a good idea to go with how people are voting with their money (Ladbrokes) or N Beale’s vision of what he’d like the odds to be. :-)

  3. I have no idea how there can be any debate about the gap narrowing given that, over the past few months it has – wot we experts refer to as – narrowed.

    How you work this out is to look at what it was, then what it is, then calculate if there is any difference and finally see if any gao has gone up or down.

  4. @virgilio,

    and I wonder whether you think these left wing Govts are really what the countries need given the size of the social state in some of them. I have my own views, but time will tell…

  5. @Rich,

    I’m pretty sure Virgilio’s answer would be a resounding “Yes”..

  6. @PAULCROFT

    You’re just not entering into the spirit of this at all are you? :-)

  7. Crofty’s right that the gap has clearly shrunk, although not by all that much and it doesn’t mean all that much (it’s risen and fallen on a fairly languorous path for a long time).

    The big news, if there is any, is that UKIP’s surge seems to be fading faster than expected, and that the prospect of massive damage to Conservative chances, whilst still present (and likely to reemerge around the Euro elections) is fading slightly.

    The Tories still need a major change in the landscape before they can get close to not losing, never mind winning, in 2015.

  8. I wonder if UKIP has miscalculated regarding the European elections; they may have peaked too early & will either not get the same level of media coverage or it’s impact will be reduced because the voters have grown used to seeing Nigel with pint glass in his hand.

    Perhaps UKIP’s English council seat successes & their by-election second places have been bought at the expense of their EU potential. It could be that all the publicity which those contests have generated – & speculation about how well UKIP might do in the EU elections – will have the effect of increasing turnout by the voters who have a dislike of Farage & his attitudes.

  9. Neil A and Paul Croft
    Agreed but it must worry Lab slightly that the ‘return’ from UKIP appears only to Con, rather than Lab. The OP who mention EU and gay marriage (I like the French euphemism ‘mariage pour tous’) forgot to mention immigration. As this is the most important issue for UKIP supporters, I would expect Lab to be more conscious about the issue (although I have not the faintest idea what they could propose to appease their ‘socially right wing’ supporters).

  10. Agree with above plus may I add the UKIP finsihing 1st in the euro-elections is perhaps less likely.

    What are Ladbrokes odds on that?

    BTW – re odds, they are certainly useful as a guide to where the money is going but also gone because as more money is laid they are distorted by bookies hedging..

    Before 2015 plenty of money was placed on a con OM but as the polls narrowed the odds did not that much because the bookmakers wanted to take more money on other outcomes.

    Bookies generally would rather a smaller profit guaranteed than gambling; an ostensible oxymoron for sure non-gambling bookies

  11. I don’t know what the normally very precise Virgilio meant about Cameron being the ‘only Conservative leader’ in the EU. Could you have a look at that again V please?

  12. Hilarious :-

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Political-recognition-summary.pdf

    Michael Gove’s alter ego is really puzzling. That anyone should remember Selwyn Gummer.

  13. Fredrik Reinfeldt-Sweden ?

  14. @ Colin

    ‘Here are some pictures of people you may or may not recognise. In each case, please can you say whether you recognise this person. If you do recognise the person, please can you write who you think it is.’
    ————–
    Yes some of the answers are very amusing but some are downright perplexing. Hammond (Defence Minister) might not be amused about being mistaken for (fugitive) Julian Assange.
     

  15. @Colin

    “Hilarious :-”

    George Osborne – confused with Ed Milliband and Tom Hanks.

    I… how…?

  16. @ Colin

    Loved it!

    @ Amber

    I don’t quite see your argument for UKIP peaking too early. It’s obvious they increase in the vote when they get publicity around elections and that continues for only a few weeks afterwards. It’s difficult to see why they could not have another peak in an election connected with their core policies.

    It may well be a template though for the 12 months between the Euro elections and the GE. I suspect their vote at the GE may depend how close things are in the polling- Tory voters are more likely to revert back if they think the Tories still have a chance. If Labour is still well ahead in the polls they may be more tempted to stick with UKIP knowing their vote is not going to change the result and send a message to the Tories about why they lost (even if that is not the correct message!).

  17. @Colin

    I enjoyed your poll on recognition rates for our leading politicians and, as you say, some of the mistaken associations were hilarious. William Hague and Ross Kemp???????

    It reminded me of way back when in the days when I was a Politics student at Bristol University in the mid 70s. Bizarrely, considering how left wing universities tended to be in those days, one of our lecturers was a Tory supporter and he delighted in a little anecdote about Harold Wilson. Apparently, some polling organisation had shown Wilson’s photograph to a random sample of the British public and whilst most correctly identified him, the majority of those who didn’t mistook him for Charlie Drake, the then well known slapstick comedian. Whether the comparison flattered Wilson or Drake, it’s difficult to say.

    This is an anecdote, by the way, for the strictly Over 50s (maybe 60s!!)! lol

  18. Crossbat – “This is an anecdote, by the way, for the strictly Over 50s (maybe 60s!!)! lol”

    No, it works for anyone who knows what Charlie Drake looked like (Specifically, he looked like my late Uncle George, though I doubt the comparison really enlightens anyone else here)

  19. Colin, well fished up; it clearly pays not to be bald if seeking recognition (see Hague).

    I didn’t know who Sarah Millican was, but now i’ve looked her up, I do, but would not have known her name.

    A salutary lesson to all those who come on here expecting a 5 point rise in their favourite party’s VI following a ‘Question Time’ or some such programme.

  20. @ SHEVII

    I think that Farage had a novelty value for the media & voters. His Party was also surfing the anti-gay marriage wave & anti-politics mood. Farage may have made some gains from this but he may also have made a rod for his own back.

    I say this because he captured the anti-elite mood by letting every Tom, Dick & Harry (it was almost entirely male candidates) stand for local council seats. But the lucrative EU candidacies seem to be reserved for a hand-picked elite who are chums of Farage. I think this will go down like the Titanic with UKIP’s current membership; some are already up in arms about the proposal to not compete in Westminster seats against right-thinking Tories.

    The EU candidacy selection process will cause more divisions & UKIP does not have the internal structure to manage dissent in the way which the major Parties do (& they’re not always successful in managing it!).

    I also think that the major Parties have taken a ‘que sera’ approach to the EU elections in the past. This time, I think it will be different. Putting UKIP below them in the EU elections would benefit any of the 3 main Parties in the run up to 2015; so much more active campaigns are likely for the 2014 EU elections compared to previous ones.

  21. @Anthony

    “No, it works for anyone who knows what Charlie Drake looked like….”

    You’re right, of course, but I was thinking you’d have to be a fair old age now to remember Charlie Drake. He disappeared off our TV screens in the 70s and, whilst I think he lived on for much longer, he more or less disappeared from public view well over 40 years ago.

    Just to reinforce how long ago it was when he was in his heyday, I remember watching his TV show as a child in the 1960s and, like a lot of TV then, it was live. He was doing a sketch in which he was required to fall through a bookcase and, being the good old pro he was, he had no stuntman or body double. It went wrong and instead of crashing through the bookcase and emerging apparently stunned and dazed, he actually knocked himself out. Before it dawned on the production team, the studio audience and, eventually, the watching millions, that old Charlie wasn’t getting up again to resume the sketch, an eerie silence went on for seemingly many minutes before the episode was pulled and, if I remember rightly, a continuity presenter came on screen to announce a sudden change in programming!

    Charlie recovered, thankfully, and went on for a good few years after his little scrape, although I think he had to rapidly develop an ability to distinguish between balsa wood and teak !

  22. True. I wouldn’t have any idea what he looked like were Uncle George’s resemblence to him not a Wells family joke.

  23. Jim Jam

    Technically it’s correct to say that the Con VI has not lost much if anything since Eastleigh. But that MAY be because they are the top end of a micro-bounce.

    http://oi41.tinypic.com/5d9lkk.jpg

    The big picture is that the long-term draining away of support for the Tories is continuing with no sign of bottoming out yet.

  24. Well for look a likes top must be the SNP MSP Stewart Stevenson, and Father Jack from Father Ted on TV.

    Seperated at birth!

    Peter

  25. Actually the mirror has a whole page of them… I did like Vince Cable and Mongomery Burns from the Simpsons!

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-admits-he-looks-like-866936

    Peter.

  26. Hmm. I fail to see any resemblance between EM and Wallace (even if Ed himself thinks there is). For a start EM has hair (too much IMO). I should imagine TM being most confused with HH will please neither ladies, but goes to underline my point about personal impact (not worth having it as it can backfire).

  27. The media seem quite bored at the moment, so I don’t think there’s a danger of them ceasing to cover Ukip any time soon. Even if they stay around 10-14 % in the polls, that’s easily enough to give them a shot at second (or perhaps even first) in the European elections, and them pushing either or both of the big parties to third is big news.

    Besides, they had to try for Eastleigh- winning there would have been such a coup that it was worth almost any risk- and after Eastleigh some degree of success in the local elections was almost inevitable. It would have looked cowardly not to put people up for them, and they did pretty well even in places where they didn’t campaign. So I don’t think Farage had much choice about the timing.

    We could really use another set of marginal polling from Lord Ashcroft. Especially considering the uneven ebbing of the Ukip tide, it would be very useful to know where all these Tory -> Ukip and Lab -> Ukip defectors are. If they’re uniformly distributed it’s a much bigger deal than if people are using Ukip the anti-incumbent protest option in safe seats like South Shields but voting tactically in the marginals.

  28. Er, Ukip pushing both of the big parties to 2nd and 3rd, that is. I’m really not expecting them to tie…

  29. AMBER

    Yes-he does seem a little lacking on the humour front.

  30. CB 11

    Nice story-thanks.

    I would say -on balance-that flattered Drake.

    We loved Charlie Drake in our house-both his tv shows ( in one of which , I seem to remember he knocked himself out) ; and his songs:-

    PLease Mr. Custer & My Boomerang Won’t Come Back.

    Ah -memories.

    PS -just checked-he dod knock himself out, but the rest of the cast didn’t realise , and proceeded with the script , by throwing him through a window.

  31. CB11

    Just scanned the rest of the posts-you got there before me !

    As you can see-I meet the criteria for your status of “a fair old age “.

  32. Mind you, Harold Wilson was quite funny when it came to dealing with hecklers. I saw him at a public meeting in Norwich during the 1966 GE campaign and he was very sharp and quick witted in dealing with hecklers. The following week I saw Ted Heath. His reaction to hecklers was to ask for stewards to throw them out!

  33. Howard

    Steve Bell produced a series of cartoons showing David Cameron as a Condom or a Sausage .

    From a Certain Angle you can see what He’s getting at.

  34. Wilson was well tutored in dealing with critics.

    He told a story about how, as a young MP, he was asked by Nye Bevan where he was born. Wilson answered, “I’m from Yorkshire. Up there, we’re not born, we’re forged.” Bevan replied, “Forged is it? I thought there was something counterfeit about you.”

  35. Steve
    I did read the cartoonist’s explanation for the condom. IIRC it has to do with forced impotence, to which i suppose such birth control method amounts.

    I suppose that all Accords between coalition parties force a certain extent of impotence on all (think tuition fees). Now I am thinking about those, – oh, never mind.

  36. One for you supporters, what’s this spat between EM and the Unite Union over Falkirk .
    I get it that it’s something about selection for the seat in the next GE but what,s the Unite Union got to do with the selection process of a MP.

  37. Crossbat,I loved watching Charlie Drake as a child.Perhaps I am mistaken but
    Did he not have a show called Mick and Montmerency in which they were
    Decorators who got tangled up in the wallpaper,all to the accompaniment of
    The 1812 overture?

  38. @ Turk

    The Unions have no vote for Labour Westminster candidate selections. It’s only CLP members who can vote. Of course people who are members of Unions can also be full members of the Labour Party, if they want to join in a personal capacity.

    The CLP can choose whether or not to select a candidate on the Labour Party’s Panel of approved candidates. However, should the CLP select a candidate not on the Panel its decision is subject to the National Executive Committee retrospectively satisfying itself that the candidate reaches the standard required to join the Panel.

    In this and other circumstances (for example new information emerging about a candidate subsequent to their selection) the National Executive Committee can (& has exercised its power to block a CLPs initial choice of candidate); the use of this power has on occasion proved controversial.

    Regarding Falkirk (currently Eric Joyce’s seat), the allegations seem to be that officials of Unite have been urging Unite members to join the CLP so that they will be able to influence the candidate selection. Unite absolutely deny that there has been any wrong doing & say that Labour’s internal investigation has, to date, failed to prove that anything unfair or untoward has happened. Nevertheless, Labour may put Falkirk CLP into special measures.

    What are ‘special measures’? Here’s the information provided by the Party to Labour List:
    “An individual living in a constituency where the party is in special measures can apply for party membership in the normal way. When their application is received they are sent a letter asking them to provide two additional pieces of ID proving that they reside at the address given in their application e.g. utility bills and the letter may also tell them that they need to be registered as an elector at the address given for membership, if they are not already, and that they need to complete a direct debit mandate if they haven’t. This process ensures that new members are genuine, valid applicants in areas where there have previously been problems regarding recruitment of individuals who are not eligible.”

  39. @Peter Cairns

    How about David Cameron and Roger Ramjet?

  40. @Turk,

    Herald article attached. I do love the phrase ‘rotten borough’, always reminds me of Blackadder.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/falkirk-branded-rotten-borough-in-election-row.21230911

    Don’t know too much about this one, but it’s certainly not the first selection criticism Labour has had….

  41. @ Turk,

    The accusation is that Unite bought Labour memberships for a hundred or so people in Falkirk so as to pack the constituency party and ensure their preferred candidate won the selection vote.

    Someone (Blairites? Members of the pre-existing Falkirk constituency party? Reports differ) freaked out and said Unite were abusing party procedures to rig the selection, so they took it to the NEC. The NEC have just ruled that it was dodgy, taken over the selection process and frozen the memberships of everyone who joined the Falkirk CLP after March 12, 2012. Amber probably has a deeper understanding of what’s going on up there, but that’s the quick summary.

    It’s unclear to me a) why the NEC needs to do both those things- it seems like it should be one or the other- and b) why Unite is not allowed to buy Labour memberships to pack a constituency party if it so desires. It seems to me that the point of legal tender is that your money is as good as mine and after taxes you can spend it how you like, and that a Labour party membership bought for me by Len McCluskey or Norman Tebbit or anyone else is therefore as valid as one I paid for out of my own pocket, assuming I haven’t broken any other party rules in applying for membership.

    Apparently this is not the view taken by the NEC.

  42. And indeed, Amber got in before me. What she said.

  43. Especially since my comment got stuck in moderation limbo. Well, just assume it was a slightly-less-good-than-Amber’s summary of what’s going on.

  44. Can anybody remind me why the sitting Labour MP Eric Joyce resigned?

  45. Punched someone in the head in the Commons Bar.

  46. Strangers’ Bar. Whatever. One of the parliamentary watering holes.

  47. @ Rich

    Herald article attached. I do love the phrase ‘rotten borough’, always reminds me of Blackadder.
    —————-
    The Blackadder ‘rotten borough’ episode was one of the funniest of the entire series.

    The Herald article is also quite entertaining; however there appears to have been no effort put into fact finding – but asking rival Parties what they think of other Parties’ internal processes is always good for a laugh.

    So I hope that my comment @Turk provides some factual & relevant information to help fill the gaps in the Herald’s Blackadder styled version of events.

  48. Wait- it turns out he headbutted them.

    But the key point is he assaulted a Tory in a drunken rage and had to resign the whip.

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