The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3). As with other recent polling ComRes show UKIP coming off the boil a bit after their post-local election high, but still well above the levels of support they had earlier this year. Full tabs are here.


143 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 14”

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  1. Watch your back Ed he’s behind you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. You appear to have compared the figures from 2 polls ago, any reason for this or is it by mistake?

  3. and falling further behind?

    I don’t understand your point Allan.

  4. Maybe like the “Alliance” in 1981-1982, UKIP will soon develop menopausal problems.

  5. @ALEX HARVEY (from previous thread)

    “…I set appointments for salesmen; sounds unglamorous, but today I made £[indecent] and was told I broke the record for a new guy :D…”

    Unglamorous? I’m a computer modeller[1]. Fun for me is fitting a variate whilst eating a CurlyWurly. Speaking seriously, the person who feed the deals to, and schedules the people, are often in a good position (this is why solicitor’s clerks earn absolute stacks). Keep at it, you’ll be OK.

    rgdsm

    [1] at least I am this week: it’ll be something different in August, hallelujah.

  6. Ben – ComRes do both online and telephone polls, and there are consistent differences between the two modes, so you need to compare phone poll with phone poll, online poll with online poll

  7. @Martyn
    ” Speaking seriously, the person who feed the deals to, and schedules the people, are often in a good position (this is why solicitor’s clerks earn absolute stacks)”

    Barrister’s (Counsel’s) clerks. Solicitors don’t have clerks. And yes they do earn a pretty penny. Particularly in London.

  8. I think we can expect more doses of the UKIP effect between now and the next GE, not least the European elections. The polls ought to be quite volatile like at the last GE.

  9. CLOUD SPOTTER

    “and falling further behind?

    I don’t understand your point Allan”
    _______

    I wanted first post so I had to write something. ;)

  10. @Raf

    I stand corrected, thank you.

    rgdsm

  11. Looking at that 18-24 vote again:

    Comres: 48% Labour, 17% conservative

    vs Yougov on Sunday:
    31% conservative, 30% Labour.

    Still all over the place…

    Does anyone graph by age group so we can see what the trend is there?

  12. Greetings from Florida! News here is all about the George Zimmerman trial and Edward Snowden, so I’ve heard nothing about polls.

    Richard, I don’t have any hard figures on the youth figure but much of it I think is to do with certainty to vote figures. Most young people are not Tories, but those few who are are quite political and are much likelier to vote than the others.

    Second is that voters in that age group are the only generation to grow up with Labour as ‘the man’, so in rebellion say they support the Tories. Just a guess.

  13. As someone who fits into the 18-24 category, a few observations if I may:

    1) A remarkable amount of people aren’t interested in politics. Very clever people, getting 1st class degrees in their respective disciplines struggle to name more than 2/3 MPs
    2) I only know 1 Tory supporter.
    3) A lot of people hold the anti Brown/Labour narrative – ‘he sold all our gold’ etc etc. The middle ground sort of people – who aren’t outright politics fans, but know a bit (possibly the most dangerous!).

    Realise the above isn’t as coherent as I imagined it would be. Personally – I find the 48/17 split amazing. I’d have put it at a small Labour lead.

    IS the CON increase former LD voters amongst the group (now disillusioned following 9k fees)??

  14. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 24th June – CON 32%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -34

  15. Polldrums continue

  16. Allan

    Not to worry – I bet they’l do sums at BIG SKULE. Don’t forget to wear an England footy shirt and talk posh when you do start next year – they like that a lot.

  17. The BMA conference must make interesting reading for the Government.

    “And in a sign of just how angry doctors are, delegates at the conference also passed a vote of no confidence in Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

    Jacky Davis, a hospital consultant, told the conference: “We have been betrayed.”

    Last year they also passed a vote of no confidence in then Health Secretary, Andrew Lansley.”

  18. STEVE.

    …and Patricia Hewitt.

    At least they are consistent.

    They voted against the creation of the NHS.

    Now they vote against extending care to evenings & weekends.

    Tough on patients-tough on the causes of patients.

  19. Colin
    LOL and the funniest thing of all most of them are Tories!

  20. Steve

    I dont see the polldrums continue, what I see since February this year is the gap between the two main parties becoming slightly closer.
    If I was in the Labour camp I would be wondering why that is happening, especially as recently EM has been trying to get snippets of his parties policy messages over to the voter.
    Is it the message failing to connect with the voter or is it the messenger.

  21. @Colin

    “They voted against the creation of the NHS.”

    They did indeed until Nye Bevan, in that wonderfully evocative phrase of his, “stuffed their mouths with gold”.

    Every man has his price, it would appear, although you’d hope that the motives of doctors would be a little less mercenary than other professions.

    Not surprising but, nonetheless, still disappointing.

  22. Colin

    I’ve just read your reply to steve so funny so right.

  23. CB11

    Agree completely.

    TURK

    Thanks.

    I think you are right about the gap closing.

  24. The Chancellor’s statement and the record and plans for cuts seem, in respect of Britain’s position in the world, bizarre. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23029683)
    While the FCO will have had its funding reduced by 50%, and culture, media and sport, by about 42%, development aid wil continue to be increased to reach the 0.7% of GDP decreed in a UN declaration long since discredited as irrelevant and unspendable, but will be used to off-set reduction in defence spending to prop up the cost of armed response in trouble spots, presumably to be identified from time to time by the Government and Foreign Secretary in power or in response to calls from the US and other EC states. The words “tin pot” come to mind.

  25. Meanwhile in the Continent, the last of the conservative leaders (heads of state or of gvt), the Czech PM Peter Necas, was forced to resign last week. So, after the defeat of Polish conservatives (PiS) in both GE (2007, 2011) and PE (2011) and of Czech conservatives (ODS) in PE of 2012, the only remaining conservative leader in the whole of EU is Cameron. Necas resigned as a result of a serious scandal of bribing and spying in which his main associates were involved. The fragilised ruling center-right coalition proposed as a new PM the president of Parliament, but social democrat President Zeman (the first Czech president elected directly by popular vote) seems to be willing to appoint a caretaker govt. of experts, which practically mean early election (normally GE was to be held in May 2014). VI polls are very gloomy for ODS, some of them predicting them 4th place, after the leading Socialists, the Communist Party and the junior gvt. partner TOP09 (very pro-European, EPP). Socialists (CSSD) are almost certain to lead the next gvt.. in alliance either with the Communists (it happens already in some regional gvts), or, more probably, with TOP09 and/or some minor centrist and center-left parties (it happens already in Prague municipality, where a new TOP09 mayor replaced the old ODS one, leaving B. Johnson as the only conservative mayor of a EU capital). The generalized center-left turn in ex communist block was confirmed once more last Sunday in Albania, where the broad progressive coalition (from communists and greens to moderate right) under socialist leader Edi Rama (former mayor of Tirana) won, after 20 years, a landslide victory against outgoing PM S. Berisha, leader of a right-wing coalition.

  26. On Bevan & ‘that’ quote, it’s not quite all it seems (a litte like the note Liam Byrne left for the (humourless) David Laws).

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/nhs_at_50/special_report/119803.stm

    By allowing the consultants to work inside the health service and at the same time still treat their lucrative private patients, Bevan bought the backing of the consultants by, as he put it, “stuffing their mouths with gold.”

    [ image: Bevan kept the consultants on side by
    Bevan kept the consultants on side by “stuffing their mouths with gold”
    Opposition among BMA members was now declining as well. The doctors began to realise that by refusing to treat health service patients they would lose a substantial source of income, and when Bevan promised legislation that ensured they would not become salaried civil servents, the doctors ended their resistance.

    But Bevan had managed to take from them the right to buy and sell practices.

    —————————————

    Re the 18 -24 age group: I have two children that fit that group & almost have to drag them to the polling station, such is their lack of interest.

  27. Morning Everyone,

    Latest YouGov Poll shows a 7% Labour Lead – quite common now.
    By the end of this week we should be able to see if this is the new average lead.
    But one thing is beginning to be quite clear – especially with the daily YouGov is that the Con VI is now 30-32% and Labour 38-39%.
    Its so slow and slight but the gap is certainly narrowing.

  28. To Cordata,
    I know what you mean about the young not voting.
    I blame the education system. Too politically correct.
    Also we have no
    suffering in a big way, so there is no-one with” Fire in their Bellies”.
    Thatcher did a good hatchet job on the Unions, so “workers” have no power.
    It’s bread and circuses again to keep us quiet.

  29. @Sine Nomine

    “Its so slow and slight but the gap is certainly narrowing.”

    …………but maybe slowly widening if you look at today’s ComRes telephone poll (see top of this thread).

    There’s something for everybody in the latest clutch of polls!

  30. Colin
    Would you like me to send you and Turk a few straws to clutch.

    Incidentally I doubt there are too many members of the BMA left who voted against the foundation of the NHS in 1948.

  31. It is quite interesting that the ‘Lab lead closing’ narrative seems to have taken hold, with little conclusive evidence of the merits of this.

    Last week I was posting about the run of sub 30% scores for Tories – absolutely devastating if repeated at a GE. Then we had a 4% Lab lead, which obviously means a Tory majority is on the cards, but when this is followed by that 4% lead widening to 6%, we switch horses to a different polling company which looks better, even though they are showing a 7% lead.

    Everyone does this. We get excited when our team moves up in the polls, and feign some kind of pleasure if we pretend that the other lot should ‘really be doing much better at this stage of the electoral cycle’ if the polls haven’t actually moved in our direction.

    It’s all fund and games, but we’re all adults – we know the score.

  32. Regarding the comment about the Premiers in the EU it may well be the case that Cameron is the only Conservative one left – I couldn’t name them all – but as regards governments I think I am right in saying there are at least two grand coalitions of centre left and centre right currently in office, in Greece and in Italy.

    Being in power is a bit of a poisoned chalice in times of austerity, but as Oscar Wilde might have said the only thing worse than being in power is…

  33. Com/Res always seems to have smaller leads for Labour than other polls. Or it feels that way at least. But Labour is trending upwards in this with UKIP trending down.

    @ Billy Bob

    Which one of these Congressmembers is your favorite?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laurence-watts/noh8-on-the-hill-iii-draw_b_3488563.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

    Better yet, would you be able to identify any of them without HuffPost’s ID? There were a lot of others (beyond the 15 featured). Including our very own superhero, Henry Waxman:

    h ttp://smmirrorstatic.s3.amazonaws.com/media/550/13721003268978.jpg

    Actually, here’s today’s complete list:

    h ttp://www.noh8campaign.com/article/noh8onthehill3

    (And the original posing members):

    h ttp://www.noh8campaign.com/article/noh8onthehill2

  34. @Alec – I really like your post Alec – very level headed and a sensible approach.
    There are far too many Partisan comments on here and they get so excited (me included at times to be fair)
    BUT – as you say its great fun for us poll watchers.

  35. Looking at todays yougov, we can see a definite break by age:

    18-24 58% Labour, 26% Tory
    25-39 39% Labour, 34% Tory
    40-59 41% Labour, 29% Tory
    60+ 36% Tory, 31% Labour

    With caveat that these age breaks seem to move around quite a bit from poll to poll, at least the trend I seem to be seeing is:

    The younger vote is moving more towards Labour, possibly responding to the recent messages on housing.

    The older vote is abandoning UKIP and returning to the Tories, possibly in response to the same Labour message that people perceive that Labour is targeting pensions so older folk are returning to the anti-labour party, or perhaps they were just gay marriage protest voters and now that has passed, no point in protesting anymore.

    So it seems that a good election strategy for Labour would be to energise that younger vote so that they turn out at the polls. As commenters above have noted that could prove quite difficult. Perhaps more policies focused on the lost generation, and then some targeted messages – Ed visiting large university campuses and colleges with a message focused on young people. Develop funded policies that are realistic – don’t want to do another tuition fee promise and then fail to deliver.

  36. I will save someone else making the obvious point that in replying to Virgilio’s post about the shortage of Conservative figures representing countries I have missed the very obvious and important example of Angela Merkel for Germany.

    Neither, incidentally, is a head of state, but of course that is another story.

    I do not think there is a permanent move to the left in Europe, more a response to austerity, but time will tell.

    Time could be a factor while we wait in the polldrums for Labour to establish a decisive lead – or not, as the case may be – but as Harold Wilson said once, “A week is a long time in politics”.

  37. It is a question of cherry-picking of course – and in this case clutching at those cherries which hang low. The actual overall evidence, all of the cherries, seems to show that Labours lead fell significantly over a period around February/March?, but has probably been stable for the last couple of months, apparently averaging about 8%. This does not actually say what the present position is, as polls inevitable tell us about the past – even yesterday is a sample the past and there may be changes in progress today!

  38. VIRGILIO
    Thanks for you, as ever, valuable and well researched post. An obvious conclusion is that the international economic collapse and consequent governmental attempts to regain stability and growth have favoured Keynesian policies and a government driven reigning in of institutional irresponsibility on the part of the banks and private wealth on the part of individuals ufairly well-placed in national and internation financial systems. Not perhaps so much a resistance to austerity as rejection of neo-liberal financial management.
    Have you reviewed polling or voting intentions on the Continent which would illustrate this question?

  39. UKIP going off the boil?
    Their county councillors are giving up already.
    Latest one:
    in Norfolk only elected a few weeks ago to the Thetford West seat.
    ‘How many more to come ? or go.

  40. Richard
    I think what did for the LDs re tuition fees was that it was so extravagantly flagged up as a promise,giant pledge cards signed in blood etc, if Lab just say they will do as right as they can in the circumstances by the young(and stick to that obviously) then they will garner in the votes.

  41. It seems pretty clear that the Lab lead is narrowing – it’s down to 7pts in the latest youGov poll. NOTHING is certain about the next GE but on balance I think the odds are roughly:

    25%: C Majority
    35%: C-led Coalition
    20%: Lab-led Coalition
    20%: Lab Majority

  42. Richard,

    The age cross-breaks are all over the place, because they’re not weighted and the samples are tiny. The caveats don’t mean that there’s a degree of uncertainty; they mean that you shouldn’t make any inferences from them.

  43. @NBEALE – don’t quite know how you arrive at your odds for the possible outcome of the 2015 GE BUT i must say they do look rather interesting and quite to my liking I must say. -lol

  44. The Con message has improved recently and it looks like they are off their bottom levels.Labour are a touch down since their peak but stable for now.Will the Cons draw parallel with Labour in atleast one poll this year?Possibly.

  45. NBE
    On what do you base your ‘odds’ ?
    If it’s’a guess please say so.

  46. @ Virgilio

    I don’t know how you define Conservatives, but Fidesz is in power in Hungary (though I consider them extreme right).

  47. Labour lost VI largely which was largely protest to UKIP post Eastleigh and to just beyond the locals. This has stayed away but VI on YG has stayed at 38/39 any 37/40 being moe.
    Most con VI loss to the UKIP pre-dated Eastleigh
    and was as far as we can tell issue driven (EU and Gay Marriage). Some of this seems to be returning to Cons narrowing the lead a touch but this was imo always going to return by 2015 anyhow as the Tories are the closest these voters have who can get elected.

  48. @Richard

    “The younger vote is moving more towards Labour, possibly responding to the recent messages on housing.”

    Based on some recent polling conducted by MORI, the Guardian ran a couple of articles last week that challenge some of the lazy old assumptions about the relationship between voting patterns and demographics. There’s good and bad news for both the main parties buried in the data, although the suggestion that the Tories are losing support in the high turnout over 65s category might be a bit worrying for them.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/18/conservatives-win-generation-y-older-voters

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/18/young-people-tory-grey-vote

  49. @NBEALE

    You`ll never make bookmaker as you have Con majority odds greater than Lab majority.Latest Ladbrokes` odds

    Lab majority-11/10
    Con majority-7/2

  50. Electoral Calculus:

    “The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.”

    Labour majority 86%
    Lab/LD coalition 7%
    Con majority 2%
    Con/LD coalition 2%
    No overall control 2%

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