The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3). As with other recent polling ComRes show UKIP coming off the boil a bit after their post-local election high, but still well above the levels of support they had earlier this year. Full tabs are here.


143 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 14”

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  1. Amber star

    Thanks for that very clear and detailed desciption, I can see why EM is not a happy bunny , especially with the Sunday Herald story over the matter, which no doubt the the SNP will make much of north of the border.

  2. There is a great photo of the three party leaders at Buck Palace tonight.

    I felt like the farm animals peering through the window and trying to make out which was which between the pigs and the farmers.

  3. @Spearmint

    I’m sure I’d heard that he’d also done the same thing once before.

  4. (repost with omitted reference)

    @ALISTER1948

    “…I will save someone else making the obvious point that in replying to Virgilio’s post about the shortage of Conservative figures representing countries I have missed the very obvious and important example of Angela Merkel for Germany…”

    @LASZLO
    “…@ Virgilio. I don’t know how you define Conservatives…”

    @HOWARD
    “…I don’t know what the normally very precise Virgilio meant about Cameron being the ‘only Conservative leader’ in the EU. Could you have a look at that again V please?…”

    I think Virgilio is using the word “Conservative” correctly and precisely…which is a problem for a UK audience because we don’t. Because there’s only one GB-wide centre-right[1] party, we use “Conservative” as a synonym for centre-right. Problem is, not all centre-right politicians are Conservatives. Merkel is centre-right but she definitely isn’t Conservative, she’s a Christian Democrat – Conservatism is more Atlanticist, free-trade, expansive, Christian Democrats are more inward, community-based, small-town interventionist. Fidez are more towards the right-wing area usefully (but less used these days, alas) defined as “National Conservative”: more traditionalist, kinder-kuche-kirche, “you’re not from round here are you, son?”. So Virgilio is technically correct.

    This is actually a problem: because each country has its own definition of left, right, centre-right and so on, comparing parties across national borders is not easy. It gets even worse with counties like Ireland (parties split on who won/lost the civil war) where it’s not easy to place on our left-right spectrum. A quick cheat is to look up which Europarty the party belongs to, which makes things a lot quicker.

    @COLIN
    “…Fredrik Reinfeldt-Sweden ?…”

    …is the leader of the Moderate Party, which is a member of the EPP Europarty, which is…yup, Christian Democrat. Not Conservative.

    rgdsm

    [1] just run with me here for a minute on the use of the term “centre-right”. It’ll all make sense in a bit.

  5. Some thoughts on the 11.5 Bn spending cuts to be announced later today.

    Public sector net debt at the end of May stood at 1,189Bn

    1% of 1,189Bn is 11.89Bn

    Gilt yields are up by around 1% since last year

    http://www.sharingpensions.co.uk/gilt-yields-chart-latest.htm

    And I see our new BOE governor has said we need to start planning for interest rates to climb further.

    So does that mean we need to find another 11.89Bn of cuts now to pay for the recent rate rise?

  6. If he had attacked the Tory when he wasn’t in a drunken rage would he still had to resign??

  7. Virgilio,

    – “… the only remaining conservative leader in the whole of EU is Cameron.”

    Err… what about Fredrik Reinfeldt in Sweden?

    Admittedly:

    – his party do not call themselves “conservatives” (the party is called the Moderates)

    – the term “konservativ” is uncommon in Swedish discourse (they prefer the term “borgerliga”, ie. “bourgeois”, when describing that part of the political spectrum)

    – and his party is so “wet” in English Conservative terms that most Moderates would never get selected for a seat in England

    … but I suppose that he is the closest thing we have to a conservative leader in the EU, outwith England.

  8. @ Spearmint

    It seems to me that the point of legal tender is that your money is as good as mine and after taxes you can spend it how you like, and that a Labour party membership bought for me by Len McCluskey or Norman Tebbit or anyone else is therefore as valid as one I paid for out of my own pocket, assuming I haven’t broken any other party rules in applying for membership.
    ———————–
    My understanding is: Buying people Labour Party memberships as gifts is not allowed; the individual must apply for membership on their own behalf & pay for it with money which is their own (i.e. which they are free to spend on anything they choose).

    But it is definitely a grey area. Because e.g. a friend or relative might ask me to pay their subs for them as a gift or loan & because they’ve asked me – not t’other way round – I think I am allowed to do it (now that I realise this may not be allowed, I’ll seek specific advice from the Party if the situation ever arises).

    Another example is that parents might be paying all their off-spring’s expenses (if they’re a student or similar) therefore the parents are, effectively, paying for the membership.

    Therefore framing rules to cover all possible circumstances is probably not feasible & the rules will always be open to interpretation; as mentioned above, it seems that seeking advice from the Party before paying another person’s subs is the safest thing to do.

  9. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 25th June – CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -33

    Also, I thought Spain had a Conservative government at the moment?

  10. @NickP

    The article you linked to states “Scotland Yard uncovered the shocking intelligence up to 15 years ago but, incredibly, did next to nothing to stop the private detectives, who also worked for the News Of The World.”

    I am surprised that a company (NI) owned by a foreign owner who hacked into our politicians phones, infiltrated our witness protection system is still allowed to trade here. There is much talk about immigration/the EU but I hear no clamour from these same people against a foreign company taking over the UK by subversive means.

  11. Good Morning All.

    Nick Robinson seemed a little gloomy about the Government’s prospects for the deficit reduction plan on the news just now.

    Labour, imo, as they say here, does need to be 40% plus.

  12. Hi Chris
    As long as Lab is around about 40 percent AND 8 ahead of the Cons they’ll be fine.
    Just caught the headline that News lnternational are changing their name to summat else, altogether now, “if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck and hacks into peoples communications like News lnternational it’s still News lnternational”. ( Benificent providers of 5 polls per week of course,still if Nl REALLY vanished from the scene I wouldn’t complain too much abt the lack of psephological material!)

  13. @SoCalLiberal

    When it comes to posing for the noh8 campaign, it’d be a toss-up between Loretta Sanchez (CA-46) and Gerry Connolly (VA-11) imo.

    Just been catching up on some of Henry Waxman’s House Oversight Committee hearings on YouTube… including the odd run-in with Darrell Issa.

  14. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 25th June – CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -33 –

    First Labour 40% for a while and the shine definitely appears to be coming off the Faragistas.

  15. Julia Gillard has called an immediate leadership ballot, in an attempt to wedge Kevin Rudd:

    “If you win, you’re Labor leader. If you lose, you retire from politics.”

    h
    ttp://www.crikey.com.au/2013/06/26/gillard-v-rudd-alp-leadership-spill-liveblog/

  16. Billy Bob
    Is the House Oversight Committee the one that keeps missing the point?

    (Two nations who think they speak the same language. Actually I notice there are some easily led people here in the UK who have started to use this homonym.)

  17. @howard

    The word dates back to the 14th Century. Which of the two meanings though? My guess is that it comes from “oversee”. but we all make mistakes ;)

  18. Morning Everyone,

    So the latest YouGov has an 8% Labour lead with Lab on that ‘magic’ number 40%
    However the 32% for the Cons is quite regular now with UKIP slipping day by day!
    I wonder if the spending round announcement affects the Polls for a while – wait and see time.

  19. UKIP will be concentrating on the Euro elections in 2014. So I expect they will take a dip in polling until the campaign starts for those elections. That is unless there is a by-election beforehand, which they have a change of winning.

    Todays spending announcements will be interesting particularly in regard to local government. Will the government want more cuts to be made by councils and how will this be received in the Tory shires and Lib Dem strongholds ? I don’t think that they will be happy and I can see local campaigns affecting party support. Older people in particular are passionate about their local libraries and local bus services. They will not like any cuts to these services.

  20. Sine – yep 32% seems the mean now for Cons on YG – will want 2 more 40% for Lab before thinking back up still 38/9 at moment I reckon

  21. I hav`nt heard that a by election has been called in Newark. Paddy Power is quoting winner odds. Does anyone know more on this.

  22. I see News International are engaging in a re-branding exercise.

    You can put lipstick on a pig bit it’s still a pig.

  23. Billy Bob
    If it is from the 14th century, as the new World was unknown to English speakers then, I’ll go with the ‘missing the point’ meaning (ours thus). :-)

    On today’s YG, lets’ see the next few YGs. I was making the point yesterday that it seemed that UKIP ‘possible returners’ were returning to Con, not Lab. If Lab gets another point from UKIP or DK, it won’t worry Lab how many UKIP deserters return to Con.

  24. Steve
    Leave the pigs alone.
    Pigs are fine intelligent animals and I much admire them especially with a piece of crackling.

  25. Even Vegetarians can’t resist a bacon butty

  26. Recently, there appear to have been a few polls with closer results between the parties but the Labour majority does not seem to change. If this ComRes/Indy poll is anywhere near correct then the percentages for Labour and Conservatives have swapped over and the result for Conservatives in 2010 was 20 short and for Labour the same result is a 94 majority. That is quite a large bias in the electoral system.

  27. @ John Bracewell – now I wonder why Labour and the LDs are quite content with not having a Constituency Review before the 2015 GE and the Cons desperately wanted one.
    The unfair bias is there for all to see – very unfair and a total miracle we ever have a Conservative Government!
    Another way of looking at it is – If Scotland vote for independence and there is also a Boundary review – we may have a permanent Conservative Government at Westminster – just a playful thought!
    Won’t happen of course (Scotland I mean)

  28. @Colin/Ann in Wales

    Thanks for the brief bout of reminiscing about Charlie Drake and I too have fond childhood memories of him. As Colin pointed out, and as I was reminded when I looked at a Wikipdia profile of him, I’d mis-remembered the famous bookcase scene when he knocked himself out. Rather than being pulled as I thought, the episode carried on apparently with the rest of the cast oblivious to Charlie’s predicament, thinking he was just acting rather more convincingly than he usually did! They continued with the sketch and threw him out of a window, unaware that he was unconscious and suffering from a fractured skull. The old boy took about two years to fully recover! I can’t recall that detail, to be honest, but vaguely remember the episode and subsequent ballyhoo. That said, it was in 1961 and I was only 6 at the time!

    As for this latest poll, I’ll resist the temptation to claim that Labour’s lead is widening again, but it looks as if the UKIP factor may be subsiding and we could soon be reverting to that old and familiar 40/30/10 configuration that we all got to love and know for most of 2012 and early 2013.

  29. @SINE NOMINE

    Yes the Cons should get behind some sort of PR solution :-)

  30. @ Swampy – you might well be right but the two main parties just don’t seem to want to go down that road for obvious survival reasons.
    Probably with any form of PR we most likely would never be able to have a majority Government again.
    Coalitions forever – what a bloody thought!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  31. Rudd’s’won!

  32. Why is it thought that Scotland’s independence would mean permanent Tory rule?

    There appear to be 59 Scottish seats, of which around 45 would be Labour at current poll levels.

    So Scottish independence would reduce Labour’ majority at current poll levels from 94 to about 63. Irritating, but hardly terminal to Labour’s prospects of governing?

    Or am I missing something?

  33. @John Bracewell

    There is a current Labour bias, but it’s not as large as you suggest. The real reason for the appearance of a larger bias is that the Tories tend to pile up massive majorities (with a much higher turnout of electors) in the South, whereas in Labour’s inner city heartlands (mainly in the North, Scotland and Wales) Labour tends to record a smaller turnout of electors.

    The “real” bias is in the relative sizes of the electorates in the contituencies Labour tends to win, as opposed to those where the Tories tend to win. But this difference is not actually that great, and is being gradually reduced anyway by the Boundaries Commission.

    Finally, equalising electorates would not resolve electoral bias. Only a genuinely proportional system would do that. And neither Labour, nor the Tories favour this.

  34. @Ewen Lightfoot

    I’m not at all a fan of Julia Gillard. I think she’s made some profoundly stupid remarks on immigration and Muslims for a start. However, she’s been the subject of some outrageous sexism, and I wonder whether this, and not the way she originally seized power lies behind her demise.

  35. @RAF – very fair and well balanced review of the situation – Thanks for that!

  36. Both Labour and the Tories up at the expense of UKIP. The Yougov Labour lead is around 7 or 8 points. Polls are holding very steady.

  37. Re:Boundary,

    I think it’s a simple case of….if Labour win an OM in 2015 they will block the boundary review until after 2020. If the Tories win they will equalise constituencies and conduct the boundary review for 2020.

  38. It will also be interesting to see what affect, if any, reverting to system of individual voter registration will have on the 2020 GE result.

  39. AmbSupp – I think it will be slightly more complicated than that. I suspect if Labour win they will seek to change the rules again (preventing a fresh boundary review taking place requires primary legislation, Labour could simply vote down the recommendations of the boundary commission when they report in 2018, but I suspect they’d act to relax the timetable to push back the report beyond 2020 and allowing longer gaps between reviews in the future)

  40. New thread – Anthony telling us not to get all hot & bothered by the spending review. :-)

  41. Elections – and I strongly believe that Postal Voting should be discouraged or even scrapped apart from ‘genuine’ applications – there is obviously too much fiddling going on. – its plain for all to see certainly in some areas.
    Now – I wonder who is mainly to blame (party) – I’m sure they all attempt it but there appears to be a growing number of certain groups that are simply taking the proverbial!!!

  42. @AW,

    Thanks.

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