The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times results are now online here. Voting intention is CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. The leader ratings are Cameron minus 18 (up from minus 25 last week, and his best rating for a couple of months – perhaps on the back of statesmanlike coverage at the G8), Miliband minus 33 (from minus 35 last week) and Clegg minus 52 (unchanged). The rest of the poll largely covered the NHS and education.

58% of people don’t trust the NHS much, if at all, to be to open about its standards, a drop from last weekend as cover-up stories continue to come out. Neither are people confident that the rules will be changed to stop future cover ups.There is widespread support for the sacking of staff found to be involved in cover ups (88%), their criminal prosecution (71%), and slightly less so for stripping them of their pensions (54%).

Labour continue to have a narrow lead as the most trusted party on education, 26% to the Tories’s 22%. Michael Gove’s approval rating stands at minus 27%, and his flagship policy of free schools is supported by only 29% of people (38% are opposed and 33% don’t know). The balance of opinion is that British schools are worse than those in other western countries, and that standards have dropped over the last three years. In contrast most people think our universities are equal (33%) or better (31%) than those in other western countries, though a majority (63%) think that tuition fees do not represent value for money.


179 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. It seems that not only is the economy flatlining but so are the polls.

  2. Well at least Anthony had a good lunch.

  3. Dear Anthony, I enjoy your site and would like to contribute. I have tried to register twice[name 3poundroach] but do not receive any confirmation.
    Can you please assist
    Kind regards John Draper

  4. @ John,

    Check your spam filter. That’s where the confirmation email for my registration went.

  5. How’s this for an estimate for: 33-37-12. Labour majority of 40 on the UKPR swingometer.

  6. I notice that the nationalist parties continue to gain ground in London.

  7. Another relatively high figure for the SNP could mean;

    Normal subsample variance?
    A short lived boost from winning the Donside by election?
    A sign of a real change?

    One to watch over the coming weeks I think.

    Two other points, clear difference between Scotland and elsewhere over Education but it might be as much down to it being devolved as attitudes. We really don’t have grammar schools in Scotland so it is easy to see how they don’t really figure in our debate.

    The second one is that on climate change it is only Tory and UKIP supporters plus the over sixties that don’t believe it is man made.

    Peter.

  8. Interestingly Cameron’s net approval rating from C voters is +80 but Miliband’s from Lab voters is only +29%

  9. “and his flagship policy of free schools is supported by only 29% of people (38% are opposed and 33% don’t know)”

    ———

    Polling data worth bearing in mind for those saying Gove is speaking for the people with his policies…

  10. And I’m probably one of Gove’s 29% on this issue, lol,…

  11. As I thought, Cameron inevitably got a mini-boost from his publicity-rich hosting of the G8 but, fascinatingly, this has had no obvious positive spin-off effect for his party in terms of VI. The Tories remain beached in the low 30s whatever seems to occur and maybe we’ll have to re-think old Supermac’s mantra about events, dear boy, events. Maybe if Murdoch could dig up evidence that a young Miliband worked for the KGB (oh gawd, do you think I’ve given him a theme for early 2015?!) in the early 80s, that might help the Tories but, saving that bombshell, it’s difficult to see what’s likely to happen that might lift them off the rocks.

    Cameron showcased himself well at the G8 Summit, and he was in his PR comfort zone, but even after a four day personal party political broadcast his approval ratings remain at -18.

    As I said in a previous post, the Tories really are stuck in a very deep hole.

  12. Bill – that’s 18% for others?

  13. Bill

    If the nationalists are gaining ground in London could we end up with London being part of an independent Scotland, it would be funny to see all those English mps have to go through passport control

  14. LOL Richard.

    OK, I have a question. What is the typical or average rate-of-recovery of VI for a government heading out of mid-term blues towards an election. And how are the current lot doing in comparison? And when does such a recovery typically start?

    Also, a fixed election date presumably removes a bit of incumbent advantage. But by how much? And would this suggest a need to adjust polling methodologies a bit?

  15. Richard,

    Given rounding I think the SNP’s 1% in London amounts to two people so I don’t really see us having to face the frightening prospect of Boris in a Kilt.

    Apologies for that disturbing mental image but having checked the web thankfully it seems it doesn’t exist!

    Peter

  16. “so I don’t really see us having to face the frightening prospect of Boris in a Kilt.”

    ———-

    Especially when he’s stuck on that zipwire…

  17. Carfrew

    If I remember right, modern polling already takes account of voters likely to return to the party they voted last time so it’s difficult to make comparison with earlier parliaments

  18. @ RiN,

    True, but if that’s an after-the-fact adjustment it might be possible to strip that out…

  19. Ie use the figures after weighting but before reallocations…

  20. @Everyone – can someone please tell me what Labours projected share of the vote was in the run up to the 2010 election and then what it turned out to actually be?

  21. @ RIN

    I kind of asked this question of Anthony before and from his reply it sounded like ever since 1992 there hadn’t been major polling changes in terms of adjustment for previous voting patterns.

    Therefore probably fair to compare midterm for 1997-2010 elections with final result although I tend to think each election has it’s own characteristics (especially the next one) which makes a comparison a bit dodgy.

    re those fixed term elections I guess we would now be in stage one of a potential GE next year and charges of frightened or even frit if the government bottled it so although they no longer have the timing on their side it does make less of an issue of the final year of government, where a government is only there because they are hanging on by a thread.

  22. @Sine Nomine

    The data are all archived – see the left of the home page.

  23. Saudi has moved their weekend I Windsor if there was any polling on that, lol

  24. @ Sine Nomine,

    I don’t how far back you want to look, but the May 5th polls were:

    Ipsos-MORI/Evening Standard: 29 %
    ComRes/ITV/Independent: 28 %
    Angus Reid/Political Betting: 24 %
    Populus/Times: 28 %
    YouGov/Sun: 28 %
    ICM/Guardian: 28 %
    Opinium/Express: 27 %
    Harris/Daily Mail: 29 %

    Mostly under-predictions. Most of them under-predicted the Tories as well, so it’s likely that it has more to do with over-predicting Lib Dems than a systemic bias toward either main party. (Although I’m sure Anthony has a more nuanced analysis.)

  25. And so he has. This is the page for you, SN: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/date/2010/05/page/3

  26. It is surreal to go back and read the phrase: “The Liberal Democrats managed to save all their deposits”

  27. On 18th June I posted here, in response to @Ambivalent Supporter:
    “There’s plenty of derelict land here in the industrial West Midlands. The solution is to implement a recommendation of the Barker Review of 2004 and introduce a land value tax on all long term derelict property. The effect would be to force those property speculators owning the land to either use it or lose it.”

    It took Ed just three days to respond, in Birmingham of all places.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/labour-steals-march-tories-vowing-punish-land-hoarding

    Clearly the most direct and effective means to influence Labour’s Policy Review is via UKPR!

  28. Sine

    The polls got it very wrong last time, predicting upto 120 LD seats, so i wouldn’t read too much into them.

    They dont know how to predict UKIP’s share of the vote, that’s why we see polls of between 12-22%, ie headless chickens.

  29. Gove’s results are fascinating.

    Even Tory voters are lukewarm, and most crucially, he’s least popular with the demographics 25-39 and 40-59 – ie the parents of the children he’s in charge of educating ( net approval rating of +37 with Tories when Cameron, supposedly loathed by activists, gets .+80!)

    This doesn’t look like the darling of the Tory party who is secretly loved for his rigour by parents.

  30. @HOOF HEARTED

    “…The polls got it very wrong last time, predicting upto 120 LD seats, so i wouldn’t read too much into them…They dont know how to predict UKIP’s share of the vote, that’s why we see polls of between 12-22%, ie headless chickens…”

    Stating that “the polls got it very wrong last time, predicting upto 120 LD seats” misrepresents the case. The polls that did predict LDs over 100 were from people who didn’t know better (e.g. Daniel Finkelstein) or should have known better (e.g. Nate Silver, see h ttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/final-uk-projection-conservatives-312.html ).

    The GB based polls didn’t get it that far out (see h ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2692 ) and investigated their errors thereafter (h ttp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2708 ), like proper pollsters should do.

    As for your second point…again, unfair. I think more pollsters should prompt for UKIP instead of leaving them under “others”, but that’s a judgement call: it doesn’t mean they don’t know how to poll for UKIP.

    rgdsm

  31. I think the reason UKIP doesn’t go down well with voters outside England is because its leader is seen as a typical English Lager lout.

    Imagine a party based in Scotland putting up candidates in England with its leader haggis munching every time a TV camera was on him! Wouldn’t go down well….

  32. Good Evening All.

    I think that Mr Gove is sincere about trying to raise the aspirations of teachers for middle ranking students who are appallingly let down imo in many state schools.

    Jim Callaghan admitted that when he became PM.

    That is why the ‘elites’ send their children to selective schools in many ways; either by fees, or faith, or house price

  33. Allan Christie

    I can’t imagine haggis ever going down well.

    Just back from NL where the Dutch version of UKIP is now the largest party on 18%. Interesting to reflect that this will give Wilders’ party 27 seats in a 150 seat chamber and an invitation from the king to form a government (with him as PM!).

    Here the same result will consign Farage most likely to no seats and probable political oblivion.

  34. “I think the reason UKIP doesn’t go down well with voters outside England is because its leader is seen as a typical English Lager lout.”

    Perhaps he should try a photo opportunity holding a bottle of Highland Spring water instead, Allan.

    Or possibly a pint of Caledonian 80 shillings.

  35. HOWARD

    The Dutch electoral system should be an avenue for the Lib/Dems to peruse!!
    …..

    Once the election results are known, the seats are allocated to the parties. The number of valid national votes cast is divided by 150, the number of seats available, to give a threshold for each seat (the kiesdeler). Each party’s number of votes is divided by this threshold to give an initial number of seats. Any party that received fewer votes than the threshold (i.e., less than one in 150 of the total votes cast) fails to gain representation in the House of Representatives, thus the threshold is always at 0.67% of the total number of valid national votes (roughly one seat for every 50,000 votes). This is one of the lowest thresholds for national parliament elections in the world. In 1977, for instance, one party gained a seat despite winning only 0.77% of the vote. Any party that received more than 75% of the threshold will have its deposit refunded.”

  36. JAMES E

    Or even a bottle of Irn bru lol..

  37. I wonder why Gove polls so badly, and particularly why free schools don’t seem more popular.

    I understand why some (large) parts teaching profession doesn’t like them, but why don’t parents appear to? By all accounts, almost all free schools are oversubscribed, so they can hardly be described as unpopular in practice.

    I wonder if there is some confusion in the public’s mind between faith schools and free schools – it seems a lot easier to understand if faith schools don’t poll very well, particularly as they have had quite negative media coverage for a range of reasons.

    Alternatively, do people feel the problem is Gove is only focused on free schools, and thus is neglecting the schools where their kids actually are?

    Some more detailed polling on these issues would be interesting.

  38. Oops my phone decided to post before I’d finished editing! Sorry for some slightly ify grammar – an ‘of the’ made it’s escape from the post above!

    Technology eh…

  39. Free schools cost too much.

  40. @Phil Haines – the land value tax on derelict property is a useful idea (I would fancy a land value tax full stop) but I also heard a fascinating idea for releasing development land and finance for local authorities. It was on Newsnight, but I didn’t catch who was proposing it (not a politician). It goes something like this;

    Councils invite landowners to offer land for development via an auction style of deal, with the council the buyer. This land wouldn’t have planning permission, so would sell for perhaps £9,000 per acre. The council would decide which land it would buy and pay the landowner the offered price.

    Council then develops planning permission for the land, reselling it to developers with building permission for something like £300,000/acre. land is encouraged into use for much needed housing, councils have an interest in developing it, and the public purse takes the development gain, ready to build schools, roads and GPs surgeries etc.

    Neat idea, which means it will never happen.

  41. I can’t see ^^^ going down very well with local people – people tend to be nimbyish anyway, and generally speaking local council development don’t get a good press.

    It also strikes me as a recipe for corruption – sooner or later, councils would end up paying over the odds for land from their mates and that sort of thing.

    A more sensible option would probably be to auction planning permissions – that is probably a more transparent process.

  42. “re those fixed term elections I guess we would now be in stage one of a potential GE next year and charges of frightened or even frit if the government bottled it so although they no longer have the timing on their side it does make less of an issue of the final year of government, where a government is only there because they are hanging on by a thread.”

    —————

    Well that leaves the current government open to the charge they bottled it up front by forcing a five year term.

    But that aside, sure a comparison of the current approach of fixed five years with staying five years under the old system makes surprise less of an advantage in both cases. Though the opposition can plan better all the same when they know years out it’ll be five years.

    The main difference of course would be when being able to call a snap earlier election, ideally when opposition are worst-placed.

  43. @Alec

    I agree that idea makes perfect sense.

    Full report is here:

    http://www.centreforum.org/assets/pubs/community-land-auctions.pdf

    Apparently everyone was in favour but Eric Pickles vetoed it

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-1380720/Is-George-Osborne-Eric-Pickles-land-auctions.html

    Huge opportunity for another party to pick up this common sense policy which can increase house building AND reduce the deficit.

  44. Prole

    On Nimbyism:

    When the northern HS2 route was announced back in January, there was an example of Nimbyism on Yorkshire’s Look North that ought to be preserved in amber for future sociologists to study.

    A 50 year-old woman from a village between Leeds and York, who owns a farm close to where the line will pass. She was interviewed by the local news and said, in perfectly clipped Home Counties tones, ” Oh well, it’s all very well that the cities will benefit from this. But they don’t understand how things are in the countryside, what with their urban lifestyle and their (pregnant pause and condescending sneer) ‘cafe culture’.”

    Priceless.

  45. (oh, please tell me it was Tadcaster)

    “…they come here, with their fast trains and edible food and renunciation of incest and wifebeating, and try to make us have family trees that fork. Well, I’m not having it!”

    (Incidentally, how come she had a Home Counties accent? I know parts of North Yorkshire are well up themselves – and I am looking at you Harrogate – but even so, there are limits)

    rgdsm

  46. Martyn

    Tadcaster. Close but no cigar. Very close in fact, so maybe a few bits of Cuban weed. You’re about 2 miles off.

    Church Fenton was the place. The East Coast Mainline and the Leeds-York line went through there 150 years ago. Presumably there were folk back then complaining about the tea culture in the cities.

    As for the Home Counties accent, I assume that one of her forebears came on up the East Coast Mainline…

  47. Lefty

    You don’t think you might have been an immigrant, you know that not all of them can be bothered to learn proper English like wot you speak

    :-)

  48. Damm, I meant to say …..you don’t think she might have been an immigrant

  49. Lefty
    “..As for the Home Counties accent, I assume that one of her forebears came on up the East Coast Mainline…”

    Or possibly she was educated at a private school? These aren’t reserved purely for those people south of the Watford Gap you now.

  50. Theprole
    “By all accounts, almost all free schools are oversubscribed”

    It depends on whether you just accept the govts, oops I mean the Telegraph, figures.

    The figures are disputed by the Local Schools Network and they do appear to have a case for saying that all is not as the govts statements appear.

    http://www.localschoolsnetwork.org.uk/2013/04/free-schools-oversubscribed-again/

    and seeing as nobody else has, I must speak up for haggis – yumm, it’s lovely !

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