This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. The six point Labour lead is their lowest from YouGov since the local elections (and equals the lowest this year – YouGov had a six point Labour lead and the beginning of May and a couple in January). As ever, don’t get too excited over a single poll, but it is in line with Labour’s average lead with YouGov now being in the high single figures. Full tabs are here.

Also out yesterday was some polling of Conservative party members for Tim Bale and Paul Webb. The results yesterday just covered approval and attitudes towards the European Union. As things stand Conservative party members are overwhelmingly in favour of withdrawal from the European Union, by 71% to 20%. However, asked how they would vote if David Cameron secured renegotiation and recommended people vote to stay in, 54% would vote to stay, 38% to leave.

I’d take two things away from that. The first is that many Conservative party members are still open to persuasion – if Cameron managed to renegotiate Britain’s membership in some way they could be persuaded to back him (though of course, it would very much depend on what Cameron managed to secure). The second is that many others aren’t, even in the scenario of Cameron’s successfully renegotiating powers (and that itself is a serious challenge), 4 in 10 of Conservative members would not vote with him in a referendum. If a referendum does ever happen, and if the Conservative leadership are campaigning to stay in, it really is going to open up a gulf between the leadership and some party members. Full tabs are here.


348 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. For me the most interesting part of the survey on Europe was the break down of party membership.

    Out of 850;
    Twice as many men as women.
    More members over 60 than all the rest put together.
    More members in the South East than everywhere else.
    Three out of four in ABC.

    Oh and only 5% in Scotland ( which has over 8% of the population).

    You can see how closely that fits with the UKIP demographic and why UKIP even at mid teens polling are unlikely to get more than a handful of seats.

    UKIP are attracting dissolution end Tories in seats where the ground is blue and where a drop in the Tory vote is far likelier to see it go red than purple.

    Peter.

  2. On the other poll I don’t believe that the SNP are ahead of Labour for Westminster in Scotland for one minute. I think we have closed the gap a bit but we are still a fair bit behind.

    Still with luck we’ll never know!!!

    Peter.

  3. Peter

    What percentage of Tory Party members are over 70 or think they are?

  4. Peter – the UKIP are securing some VI from traditional Labour voters but again in seats with big majorities for the large part supporting your main point about their chances of more than a few seats being slim.

    My guess is the East Anglia with specific immigration related issues is their best chance, may be Kent and parts of the south coast.

  5. Think the issue with UKIP is the influence they exert. There haven’t been many Communists elected to Parliament but Communist thought has had a strong influence on UK politics .UKIP like the Communists makes other parties afraid and people like that.

  6. Peter Cains

    I think the really interesting fact regarding party membership figures is from Rallings& Thrashers 2010 Parlimentry guide re party membership.

    Only 1% of the voting public claim membership of one of the three main parties.

    Those 2010 figures show party membership at Con 0.4% Lab 0.4% and Lib 0.1% of all eligible voters.

    And although I dont have the figures for 2012 I believe party membership has fallen even further for all parties since those figures were produced.

    Its little wonder there are few actual members of any party under 50yrs of age and although it’s true the slightly older one’s reside in the Tory party the rest are not far behind, all three parties have failed to recruit new members and have declining figures .

    I dont have any percentage figures for UKip so I couldn’t include them, but there membership is 28,000 (2013) so lower than the Liberals 42,000 (2013) so there share of party membership is even more dismal than the other three.

  7. @JIMJAM

    Jim Jam

    “UKIP…My guess is the East Anglia with specific immigration related issues is their best chance….”

    UKIP won two seats in the County elections in Tendring and we have absolutely no immigration related issues at all other than what people round here might read in the Daily Mail. Our ethnic make-up is something like 98% white British with no sign of any further immigration at all from non British whites.

  8. What do I know?

    Perhaps the chances of the UKIP retaining more support will be greater in area like parts of East Anglia.

    It will be close for 1st place in the Euro-election between Lab and UKIP in the NEast but Imo by the GE they will be back in 4th place perhaps they will similarly fade in Tendring

  9. Some mixed news on the economy today. On the positive side, we’ve had a larger than anticipated bounce in May retail sales, mainly on the back of heavily discounted food offers in the supermarkets. However, on the less positive side, the latest survey from the CBI business lobby group found that UK factory orders rose only slightly this month, and companies became less confident about future prospects. Separately, motor manufacturers reported a 8.4% fall in output in May, blaming continued weak demand from recession-hit European markets.

    The picture remains very mixed and, as these figures show, we’re clearly not out of the woods yet.

  10. Conservative party members are overwhelmingly in favour of withdrawal from the European Union, by 71% to 20%.

    —-

    Those figures should tell any anti-EU voters a lot.

    If the Conservatives want out – and you are not a Conservative – you should want IN.

  11. Turk,

    Well not for us…. SNP membership passed 25k this year and has climbed by about a quarter since 2009.

    I am not sure about the Labour figure but the Scottish Tories are on about 8 to 9k and the LibDems probably under 4k. Neither could fill the hall for their conferences this year and at the Tory conference the delegates were outnumbered two to one by protestors.

    Peter.

  12. Chris Todd,

    If the Conservatives want tea- and you are not a Conservative- then you should NOT want tea.

    If the Conservatives wear underpants…

  13. As Labour haven’t published Scottish membership figures since 2008 ( closest I can find for Scottish Labour membership is based on ballots for the leadership which puts it as about 13-14k. In 2008 they were at about 18k.

    On the face of it the SNP is bucking the trend but you have a point as even 25k in a country with a 4m electorate is still less than 1%(about 0.6%).

    Peter.

  14. Strange comment Chris, I guess tongue in cheek?

    There is a long honourable anti-Eu tradition on the left from Benn to Shore to Gould now Hoey and others.

    Not a view I share but one I respect.

    Also, it is odd in that whilst we know voters dislike disunity they also seem to dislike monoliths so to have some dissenters we accommodate in our ranks can be useful so long as the front bench are united.

  15. Chris Todd

    That was a strange remark

  16. It would be interesting to know the cost of membership for each party, is it cost or dis-interest stopping people joining?

  17. The Staggers have been pretty blunt this afternoon by saying there is essentially no prospect of getting the country’s finances back on track without significant tax rises, and that nobody will admit it.

    They’re right, and few things disillusion voters more than suddenly finding, without warning, that, for example, the VAT rate has gone up to 20 per cent (which was, by the way, almost certainly the right thing to do).

    I think the electorate is aware that this sort of thing is going to be necessary and that the party that comes out and admits it in a grown-up way will take a short-term hit but avoid any nasty dips should they have to unveil unexpected tax rises in their first Budget.

  18. RIN

    Agreed

    “If the Conservatives want out – and you are not a Conservative – you should want IN.”

    I vote Greens and want out of the EU, we were told if we didn’t join the Euro, we would be doomed. Staying out seems to be working alright, with trade outside of the EU doing very well.

    EU population for export around 500m, India in the commonwealth 1bn alone.

  19. Sorry – who or what are the Staggers?

  20. Petercains

    I glad you worked that one out re SNP membership as a percentage of voting public, it makes my head hurt.

    It does make you wonder how much credence we should give any poll that quotes what party members say, as they represent such a small part of the people who will vote for that particular party and are more likely to be the hard core supporter with more inflexible views of there parties direction..

    I’m a Tory party member and when I see things like 70% of Tory members want to leave the EU I know thats 70% of a tiny amount of people who will actually vote Tory, and certainly doesn’t represent those Tory voters who have a softer view of Europe like myself.

    Still I suppose it’s always a good headline it certainly keeps debate on these pages going sometimes.

  21. JimJam – the New Statesman, for reasons I can’t recall if I ever knew to begin with

  22. Thanks Anthony,

    I can use it now in Party meetings to seem in the know.

  23. @Amber Star (from previous thread):

    Rather belatedly – the rebuild costs for my house also exceed the asking price. I have always assumed that this is because they include the expense of the demolition that would be required prior to any rebuilding.

  24. Turk

    Camoron, if, and it looks likely that he loses in 2015, they need a new leader, and members not voters decide that new leader, somebody like Boris or another anti-EU type looks likely.

  25. Everything else aside, this poll has Lab lead down to 6, well below the 9 or 10 point lead a week or so ago! Is it a trend?

  26. @CrossBat1,

    “The picture remains very mixed and, as these figures show, we’re clearly not out of the woods yet.”

    Very true, and it’s why I have always remained sceptical about a recovery until there is more evidence to back it up.

  27. @Hoof Hearted,

    “Everything else aside, this poll has Lab lead down to 6, well below the 9 or 10 point lead a week or so ago! Is it a trend?”

    The Labour lead with Yougov is probably around 8%, not 6% or 7% IMO. Only time will tell.

  28. @Peter Cairns

    From Scottish Labour wiki:

    “The party has declined to reveal its actual membership figures since 2008, and did not publish the number of votes cast in the leadership election, only percentages.”

    What have they got to hide? :)

  29. Turk

    DC, if, and it looks likely that he loses in 2015, they need a new leader, and members will and not voters decide that new leader, somebody like Boris or another anti-EU type looks likely.

    Members will never want another DC, who hasw pushed about 30% of their voters to UKIP.

  30. Here’s one of interest for some:

    http://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/local-headlines/glenrothes-voters-at-the-polls-1-2972283

    “Since the death of long-time councillor Bill Kay last month, control of the committee has been tied at five seats apiece for Labour and the Scottish National Party, with both campaigning hard for outright control.”

    Interesting one. The MP is Labour, while the constituency MSP is Tricia Marwick (Holyrood speaker).

  31. @Anthony Wells

    Possibly due to it staggering from one owner to another via repeated cash crises?

  32. @HOOF HEARTED

    No sign that DC will lose in 2015, au contraire things seem to be moving his way.

  33. Good Evening All from sunny Dorset.
    HOOFHEARTED: The way things are going the Cons seem on track for a new alliance with the Lib Dems.

  34. Mortgage lending the strongest for five years, and retail sales surprisingly strong too.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22982319

    This 6% gap might be closing even more if the recovery continues.

  35. CL 1945

    @”The way things are going the Cons seem on track for a new alliance with the Lib Dems.”

    That would require Labour not to be largest party, because NC is committed to support largest party first.

    Can you suggest a VI combination which would produce such an outcome & which you currently think is feasible?

  36. The idea that an opinion poll is a sample seems a difficult one to grasp.

    If you take a fair (50% heads, 50% tails expected) coin, the actual result you will get for, say, 20 spins, will vary from about 6 heads to 14 heads, averaging 10. Each set of 20 spins is a sample.

  37. Apologies, the last went off before intended.

    Opinion polls measure continuous variables, so not exactly similar to heads or tails, but the principle is the same. An opinion poll is a sample. Just as getting a 14 heads in a sample using the coin does not mean that the coin is unfair, so one should not say on the basis of one sample that the gap between the parties is now 6% – it may be, but it is just one sample result. Lots of samples are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.

  38. Colin

    How many more people like Delingpole are out there?

    Bloody hell! What a frightening thought! I assume, I hope, not many. Most of us grow out of being obsessed with egotistical monologues when we meet other intelligent people and realise that we do not know the answer to everything. It happens to most of us around the age of 8 or 10.

  39. @Rich

    The ‘recovery’ has already ended. The FTSE peaked last month at 6875, today it closed at 6159 – 12% down in one month!

    The news this week is not good. We all knew there was a massive bond bubble created by QE. Now the US have hinted they are going to start winding it down. Read this for a taste of what comes next:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-bond-bubble-in-history-is-turning-into-carnage-2013-6

  40. Re the news that retail sales recently showed a strong rise and this is “evidence of recovery”. Depends.
    Do the figures relate to a) an increase in sales by volume or b) a simple increase in cash in the till?
    Do the figures mean that people are putting more goodies into their shopping trolley – or does the rise merely reflect the fact that prices have risen sharply ? How would VI be influenced by a) or b) ?

  41. LEFTY

    Interesting that you miss the point with such determined deliberation.

    Thankfully , others have begun to get the point-hopefully reducing the number of innocent members of the public who are treated with such disastrous disdain by overpaid public “servants” seeking a quiet life & a big pension.

  42. ‘That would require Labour not to be largest party, because NC is committed to support largest party first.’

    If those circumstances were to arise I would be surprised if it were Clegg’s decision anyway. It might well be what he himself would want to do , but I suspect many LibDem MPs would decline to follow him. He would not have the authority or enjoy the same deference in his party as post 2010 election, and any decision would be much more likely to be collective and perhaps submitted to a membership ballot..

  43. GRAHAM

    Maybe-maybe not.

    But what is the answer to my question?

    What VI is currently conceivable which does NOT result in Labour as largest Party ?

  44. COLIN and GRAHAM.

    Lab and Con almost tied at a GE in 2015.

    Con and Lib D make new deal then with seats being bartered.

    A scenario could occur like that.

    Labour will not remove Ed M. They did not remove Michael Foot after all.

  45. CL 1945

    Yes-but what realistically conceivable VI can I put into UKPR’s basic swingometer which does not produce Labour as largest party ?

  46. @Richard,

    The markets are now almost totally detached from the economy. I agree there is a QE bubble, I have read Stockman’s book that covers this very topic, a good read it is too.

    This doesn’t change the fact that the two pieces of news today were good for the UK.

    The markets can be left to fall a bit further as quite frankly it’s ridiculous that they now need cheap money to inflate!

    Rich

  47. Colin a lead for the cons of about 3 over Labour would do it perhaps not quite on uns but the incumbency bonus will give the cons a few extra seats.

    Hard to see Lab falling below 35% which is why the Tories probably have to increase their share slightly to be the largest party.

    Hence Jim Jam prediction for over a year now, Cons most votes Lab most seats LDs 30-35 due to incumbency.

  48. Richard

    ‘The ‘recovery’ has already ended. The FTSE peaked last month at 6875, today it closed at 6159 – 12% down in one month!’

    Just as the rise in the market did not really indicate an economic recovery so the recent falls do not mean that the recovery has ended, though I do notice that those who were trumpeting the rise in the markets as proof that the economy was on the mend have little to say about the recent rout

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