This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (so underlining once again how UKIP appear to have declined a bit from from their post-local election high, but are still enjoying substantially more support than earlier in the year). Full tabs are here.

This morning YouGov also had a couple of questions on Julian Assange, spying and on Ian Brady. People have a negative opinion of Assange by 40% to 29%, asked what should happen to him, 43% think he should be left in the Ecuadorian embassy compared to 18% who think he should be allowed to travel to Ecuador. 6% would grant him asylum here, 15% would ignore international laws and diplomatic convention and forcibly enter the Ecuadorian embassy to arrest him.

On spying, following the Guardian’s story at the weekend, 79% think it is probably normal for governments to spy on each other at conventions. FInally asked about Ian Brady, 51% of people think he should be allowed to starve himself to death if he wishes, 40% think he should not.


111 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. Sen5c

    I agree with Sine Nomine in your wonderfully biased chart not a Tory supporter I suspect.

    Incidently wasn’t Thatcher the most sucessful PM in electoral terms in the twentieth centaury.

  2. @ Turk

    Like Sine Nomine you’ve missed my point.All the leaders I listed became markedly unpopular during their various periods in office as a result of perceived mishandling of specific events.The governments outside the period did not.The process is not some kind of inevitible cycle that we should expect DC to go through.

    In any event it tells you nothing – as you say Thatcher went on to win well, twice after mid-term unpopularity.Some others did, some didn’t.

  3. Actually Harold Wilson was followed by TB and MT (Blair got more votes)

  4. @ Norbold

    The 2010 LDs -> Lab movers are rejecting the coalition and offended by LDs supporting Tory policies in govt; while some will stick with Labour on principle even if it means letting the Tories in, it is sensible to expect some will revert to LDs as the alternative increases the chance of another Tory led govt, which is the thing they object to most strongly.

    So I would expect there to be a smaller LD-> Lab swing in Tory/LD marginals than other seats, and that this will be more in evidence as the election gets closer and voters think about the electoral make up of their particular seat.

    BFR

  5. BFR – Agree totally, another reason for LDs holding more than UNS.

  6. @Colin

    According to this paper below that seems to be written by someone far me intelligent than me, global interest rates and exchange rates are directly related once adjusted for inflation and growth and monetary policy.

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp419.pdf

    So I guess that means
    – US recovery happens
    – US QE ends
    – US interest rates are allowed to recover

    Will have the following impact on the UK
    – UK interest rates also need to rise,
    – UK needs to cease QE

    To maintain a stable exchange rate against the USD.

    With a country with our debt levels I can’t see how that can mean anything other than an increased deficit, or increase in taxes/reduction in spending, or a sharp devaluation of sterling along with inflation. Probably a mix of all of those, all timed to hit in 2015 and all bad news.

    So the next election will be all about the economy again.

  7. Richard – which is why the £ has fallen 3 points or so on the BB comments yesterday.

  8. knew fred

  9. Richard

    Very true about exchange rates and interest rates, everyone has to follow America, here we desperately need higher rates to cool down the housing market but that would result in an even stronger currency which kills our exports, it’s a very difficult balance to judge

  10. Richard – more houses would cool it down better.

    GO (and EB would do the same imo) wants highish inflation without it getting out of control to reduce the National Debt in real terms.

    So reckon low interest rates for the forseeable and QE carrying on longer than the US hence £ below $1.45 perhaps as early as by next spring.

  11. @ Sen5C,

    You’re absolutely right. I must have scrolled down too fast and missed them.

    Dunno what’s up with me and basic numeracy recently- first the 1997 swings and now this! (Cue jokes about Labour supporters…)

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