This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. YouGov’s recent polls seem to have been showing a slight downwards trend in UKIP support, with a couple of 12s and 13s starting to appear. There has been some discussion of UKIP’s position in recent weeks – largely started by that ICM which appeared to show them dropping 6 points in a month, but which was actually largely a reversion to the mean after an odd poll the month before. UKIP’s support has NOT suddenly slumped, but looking at the YouGov daily poll they do seem to have gone off the boil a bit:

It shouldn’t be a big surprise, immediately after the local elections they were receiving massive media coverage, that has now receded a bit. The point to remember is that while the short term publicity boost from the locals appears to be dissipating, they are still substantially up on before the locals.

The rest of the YouGov poll today (full tabs here) had the regular question on which party was best on various issues. The Conservatives have a 2 point lead over Labour on which party people prefer on the economy, 27% to 25%. Labour have substantial leads over the Conservatives on the NHS (35% to 21%), education and schools (32% to 23%) and unemployment (30% to 24%). The Conservatives lead on immigration (28% to 18%) and law and order (31% to 23%). On Europe the Conservatives and Labour are equal on 21%… this is worth noting. I often see the assumption that Europe is a strong issue for the Conservatives, one where they are most trusted than Labour. It really isn’t the case.

Also worth reading today are an interesting piece by Hopi Sen on where Labour’s lost support has gone in the last couple of months. Hopi has sadly committed one of my pet hates and looked at what has happened to 2010 past voters for each party without considering the chunk that are saying don’t know or won’t vote – but it shouldn’t change the interesting conclusion that some of Labour’s lost support in recent months is former Lib Dem voters moving from Lab to UKIP, presuming people looking for the most convenient “anti-government vote”.

Finally there is a piece by Peter Kellner up on the YouGov website looking at the gap between voting intention and best Prime Minister, something I’ve written about at length before and won’t rehearse again, but highlighting both how Miliband trails Labour, but also how Cameron continues to out pace the Conservatives.


104 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. @David Welch

    It was a nice warm day in Bromley. Why would Farage want to travel on a day like this?

  2. @ Rich

    There was a slowdown/ dip for certain types of housing because:
    1. First time buyers were hoping that the predicted house price crash would happen so held off from buying; &
    2. Developers, buy-to-lets & second home sellers wanted to get out quick before the predicted big crash – their eagerness to cash out with at least some gain on their investment created a temporary price dip for the types of property which you mentioned.

  3. @Rich
    ” a) there is a super finite amount of desirable houses in desirable areas compared to buyers, driving strong price growth in those areas.
    b) there is a general overall shortage of all types of housing in the UK.
    c) we are heading for another bubble/crash (perhaps unlikely given points a&b)”

    (a) and (b) – almost certainly. But i’m sceptical about (c). If people can’t buy they rent. I should know! In London all types of property are significantly overpriced (based on the cost of living), but this has simply driven up shared ownership schemes and private lettings.

  4. Amber

    Real prices are still 20+% down from their peak, nominal prices is a different story

  5. Tonights/tomorrows YouGov Poll will show

    Con 32 Lab 39 LD 11

    Thats my guess – anyone else want a go just for a laugh?

  6. A more plausible reason for Nigel Farage not coming to Aberdeen is that he knows he will be treated as a joker, and his candidate will be fifth in the poll.

    So he hopes that nobody knows about this by-election.

  7. Phil Haines/lefty Lampton

    Thanks- and fair points both. On the picking of an off
    Week- that’s entirely possible; I chose one weeks worth of data to try and balance rogue polls in small sub samples, but a month or rolling average would clearly be better. If I just got an odd week, then bad luck for me. (if pollsters supplied their data in excel rather than PDF, I might be tempted to keep an archive for such purposes!)

    Over at my blog I’ve also tried to make AW happier by looking at numbers of 2010 voters for each party who now say they’re DK/WV

    http://hopisen.com/2013/where-are-the-voters-update-for-anthony-wells/

  8. @all

    This comes to you from YouGov via Twitter and the other site. I swear to goodness, whoever came up with the idea of putting Amy Pond, Scotty, Taggart and Malcolm Tucker in the same YouGov survey deserves a day off. And probably needs one, badly…

    h ttps://twitter.com/EmmaRitch/status/346670733365219329/photo/1

    rgdsm

  9. PB’s nighthawks has a reference to a YouGov poll asking people how they think various fictions Scots would vote in the referendum???

    First it was rigging the question that the SNP was accused of , then only letting residents vote and those between 16 and 18.

    Next we will be accused of trying to skew the poll by giving votes to fictions people.

    Oddly enough the list contains, Taggart and Amy Pond, but no Grounds Keeper Willy!!

    Peter.

    Peter.

  10. @PeterCairns

    snap

    rgdsm

  11. David Welch

    The Guardian are reporting that Farage has cancelled his visit.

    “After hosting lunch for about a dozen activists and officials in a hotel some miles from the Marriott, Farage alleged the move was caused by fear of the “undemocratic yobs” who had forced him to retreat under police escort into a locked pub last month.

    That allegation puzzled the subdued bunch of demonstrators outside the Town House: there were no police officers there at all, and the Town House council offices are less than 50 metres from Aberdeen’s police headquarters. There was no sign of the anger or intemperate abusiveness of the Edinburgh demonstration.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/18/nigel-farage-aberdeen-protest-fears

    He must be feart !

  12. @Colin & @Rich – following your Blame New Labour for the House Price Boom love in, I was struck by the curious absence from any of your posts of any mention of GO’s Help to Buy loan scheme.

    Today, the Building Societies Association join the IMF, the OECD, the Bank of England, and pretty much every other neutral observer of the housing markets in criticising the scheme as serving to inflate the next credit boom, but this time directly risk taxpayers to bad debts.

    I wouldn’t mind too much if right leaning posters who are quick to take potshots at failings in the previous administration also took to the barricades to rail against such policies of their own side. There is a very strong argument that Osborne’s policy is actually even worse than anything that has gone before, as this time, we have really seen what unsustainable bubbles can do, so there is no excuse for deliberately constructing a policy to repeat those mistakes.

    After reading your various posts, I would like to think that we can agree on this, but somehow I expect there will be reasons why pumping the housing market up to 2010 was a bad thing, while pumping it now isn’t.

  13. @Alec,

    I think one thing that most will be able to agree with, irrespective of political allegiance, is that house prices will more than likely rise inexorably whoever is in power. As a relatively young person, I don’t expect buying a house will get any easier in the years ahead.

  14. Hopi

    If you picked a bad week, then so did I because I used more or less the same approach as you and got more or less the same result.

    The issue about whether the former DK/DNVers materially affect the hypothesis is rebutted somewhat by the fact that during the Lab drop/UKIP rise, the LD VI has been more or less rock solid. It takes a bit if mental contortion to find a set of changes of opinion by DK/DNVers that produces that set of outcomes. Me, armed with the amateurish and flawed analysis of where the Lost LDs have gone at various times since 2010, I reach for Occam’s Razor.

  15. @ALEC

    “…Today, the Building Societies Association join the IMF, the OECD, the Bank of England, and pretty much every other neutral observer of the housing markets in criticising the scheme as serving to inflate the next credit boom, but this time directly risk taxpayers to bad debts…”

    Daily Mash did it best.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/this-housing-boom-will-be-perfect-says-osborne-2013032163413

    rgdsm

  16. @Alec,

    I can honestly say I totally disagree with GO on that scheme.

    next question….

    Seriously though, I think you will find the centre right posters are much more even handed on reviewing policies on merit (I have posted many times on Labour policies I agree with or Labour politicians I rate like Darling). The harder left posters stand out a mile, as there is never anything but criticism for The Tories, and they are constantly in moderation.

    rich

  17. *more than likely continue to rise inexorably*

  18. @Rich – glad we can agree on something.

  19. Demand is going through the roof because of a rapidly increasing UK population. Meanwhile, supply, is not meeting demand partly because of planning restrictions/greenbelt and environmental considerations. Simply put, we are not building enough because we don’t want to destroy the environment or the character of our towns/cities/countryside. Or even the view from our gardens.

    Unless we deal with either of this issues and reduce demand or agree to build on a much greater scale on our countryside/national parks, I can only see house prices continuing to rise. In fact, I thinks its a virtual certainty that buying a house will only become harder and harder for future generations.

    None of the parties currently have the answers IMO. I am actually currently in the process of moving 50 miles away from my current location…simply so that I can afford to get on the property ladder…and even then I expect it will be very difficult.

  20. @ Chordata

    He must be feart !
    ————
    Aye, feart o’ the truth: i.e. there’s nay even a puckle o’ enthusiasm for UKIP in Scotland.

  21. @Hopi

    If you’re so inclined and have time, the way forward I suggest is this:

    AW’s graph above shows very clearly that UKIP support was bumping along at a very consistent level just under 10% until the end of Feb, after which things changed dramatically. Also, Labour in Feb was enjoying regular double digit leads and polling well into the early 40%s, reaching 45% at one point, which again changed from the start of March. So I think Feb 2013 should be the base point for comparison, and it would be worth doing the analysis for the entire month’s polling to provide that.

    If you put the effort into establishing the base figures at such an appropriate point, then it’s quite reasonable to take just occasional 5 day snapshots to pick up the latest trends in a reasonably timely manner.

    Please be a worthy soul and indulge me. I say “you” cos I’m not going to do it – I have a day job and no need to generate material for my (non-existent) blog.

    BTW I agree entirely with you that YouGov’s treatment of the DK/DVs in the tables is a pain.

  22. Excuse my typos tonight. As I found out, ipads and a bottle of wine are never a good combination!

  23. @ RiN

    House prices down 20% – aye, right.

    Please point Ambivalent towards all these cut-price flats so that he doesn’t have to move 50 miles from friends & family to get a foot in the door!

  24. @Amber,

    “Please point Ambivalent towards all these cut-price flats so that he doesn’t have to move 50 miles from friends & family to get a foot in the door!”

    Actually, it’s worse – I am moving with my parents so that I can get a foot in the door. That’s how bad it is!

  25. Agree that GO’s scheme is not the answer. Far from it. Relax planning laws instead, so that more houses can be built on greenbelt.

  26. @Ambi
    “Meanwhile, supply, is not meeting demand partly because of planning restrictions/greenbelt and environmental considerations. Simply put, we are not building enough because we don’t want to destroy the environment or the character of our towns/cities/countryside”

    No, that’s just the standard spin of the development lobby.

    There’s plenty of derelict land here in the industrial West Midlands. The solution is to implement a recommendation of the Barker Review of 2004 and introduce a land value tax on all long term derelict property. The effect would be to force those property speculators owning the land to either use it or lose it.

    And for the first time in perhaps 40 years reintroduce an effective regional policy on a scale sufficient to make a difference, so as to shift demand to those parts of the economy with the capacity to respond.

  27. And when I am saying I am moving with my parents (whom I currently live with)….I am 30 years old for those on here who don’t know. I read the first time buyer is now in the 35-40 age group. That’s how bad things have got in the UK now.

    When we move, I will no longer be a full-time carer for a family member…and am going to go into full-time employment ideally by starting a business up. Although this will be a massive and stressful step, I hope it will mean that I get a reasonable income and be able to afford to rent or buy my own place in a few years time. Otherwise, I will be left on a pitiful income and no hope of ever getting a place of my own.

    P.S. Excuse my appalling typos. I can never type whilst under the influence!

  28. @Phil Haines,

    The problem is that a lot of the demand for housing is in the south east. That’s also where a lot of the population increase disproportionately is going to go over the next 30 or 40 years. There are much few derelict houses here. A lot of our towns and cities are increasing at an exponential rate….mainly brought on by immigration and an increasing birth rate.

    I do agree with you that any derelict property in the UK should be used. It wouldn’t go anywhere near to providing sufficient demand, especially in areas which need it most (i.e. the south/south east), but anything that will alleviate the supply problem slightly would be welcome.

  29. Amber

    Well Yes but the problem is that real wages have also fallen

  30. Reg of the BNP: “I think of the English as having very little to identify themselves with except for things that are British”

    Say whaaaa?!….

    Pardon? I am not sure what that is meant to mean or say.

    Okay, I’ll elaborate Reg. You struggle to think of ‘an English identity’ so I will assist:

    The English language
    Football
    Cricket
    Rugby
    Tennis
    (all of the above are very much English entities, it’s not our fault they have travelled far beyond our shores)
    The Premier League, now the most watched sports league in the world
    Our pubs and beer
    Our history
    Our physical landscape in general, whether the much-visited cities of London (now ranked alongside New York at the top of the World Cities listings), Oxford, Cambridge, Bath, Canterbury, York etc, our countryside, our villages or our countless castles and palaces.
    Our engineering innovations, faaar too many to mention.
    Also far too much world-famous music to list but start with The Beatles and the Stones, then a vast chunk of the 1980s, past Oasis and Radiohead and onto Coldplay, Adele, Muse etc.
    Theatre from Shakespeare to today’s West End efforts
    Our literature; Chaucer, the Bronte’s, Orwell, Dickens and all before, between and beyond.
    Our TV and films
    Our cars from RR and Bentley to Aston Martin, Land Rover, Jaguar, Mini…’mass-production’ is for the dreary!
    Our festivals from the very large (Glastonbury) to the very small (Cooper’s Hill).

    The above (and all that I’ve missed in this rushed post) makes us English who we are and are what we identify ourselves with.

    By the way, kilts and Haggis are also English creations….

  31. AmbivalentSupporter: Agree that GO’s scheme is not the answer. Far from it. Relax planning laws instead, so that more houses can be built on greenbelt.

    Gah! Countryside, once lost, is lost forever!

    Instead of building outwards, we should really start building up. The world’s most dynamic and vibrant cities are not examples of urban sprawl.

  32. @Ambi S

    A bit of advice. Stay at home with your parents for a few years. Get an ordinary job. And save up for a deposit. It’s the, only way you’ll get it. If you rent, your chances of saving enough to afford to buy will be remote.

  33. There are several simple solutions to the so-called housing shortage.
    1) Stop all immigration
    2) Deport all illegal immigrants
    3) Housing benefit forces rent prices up. If you were a landlord with a DHSS tenant, why wouldn’t you charge the maximum possible? For £1000 a month you could get a prime property almost anywhere outside London, so why not cap housing benefit at £12000 pa in London, and say £6000 elsewhere? I’ve never understood the attraction of London anyway. The figures I have quoted are just examples. I don’t want to get into a detailed argument about exact amounts.
    4) Allow council tenants to sub-let. I believe this is not allowed at present for some obscure reason.

    I absolutely agree with Alec that trying to force a housing boom to get out of a recession caused by a housing boom is totally ridiculous.

  34. @Steve2,

    Totally agree about building up. And much higher density housing. The latter in particular is becoming very common with housing in the south east thankfully.

    @RAF,

    Thanks for the advice. I don’t plan to rent for the reasons you mentioned. I just hope to get a job soon.

  35. @Ambi
    “The problem is that a lot of the demand for housing is in the south east.”

    Exactly. But why?

    Did you notice the winding down of active UK regional policies over the past 40 years, once intended to shift that demand away from the South East? Or the pursuit of policies that have created an economy based on financial services in the South East, in parallel with policies that have seen the disappearance of most of the manufacturing elements of the economy? The disproportionate impact on local economies in the industrial North and Midlands of public spending cuts when so much more of their employment depends on it? The similar disproportionate impact of benefit economies on the same? Or the way that the remaining public spending on services is being shifted more and more towards the South East, responding to that shift in demand as the population distribution shifts but at the same time reinforcing the shift in demand? And finally making the South East the location of choice for just about every national flagship infrastructure project going?

  36. Well it looks like ukpollingreport are all in agreement for once! House prices are too high and need to come down. Why ordinary people think high house prices make them more wealthy I will never understand. Just look at a cost of living comparison between UK and Germany:

    http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=Germany&country2=United+Kingdom

    Now imagine rent/house prices dropped by 34% to match Germany levels. So instead of paying £1000/month rent or mortgage you pay £660 per month. That’s £340 per month to spend that you didn’t have before. The government could take £200 of that to pay off the deficit, and you would still be £140 a month better off. The only losers would be those who bought during the bubble, and the buy to let investors, but the majority of the population would be better off, we could have a balanced budget again, we would have money to spend to grow the economy and we could probably afford to bail out some of the losers.

    But government policy is to keep pushing house prices up. I don’t get it, that just leads to a high cost of living which pushes up wage demands, which makes the UK worker uncompetitive, we lose jobs, low growth as everyone’s money goes on housing, and eventually the bubble has to burst – look at Netherlands for our future – the correction will come.

    Anyone thinking of buying now should think carefully about what happens when interest rates rise, or if there is a Netherlands/Ireland/Spain style crash, it could ruin you financially for a very long time.

  37. Looks like I missed some interesting discussion again.

    I’m particularly annoyed not to be able to come back on Rich’s comment about us dogmatic hard-leftists. I never get anything put into moderation here. What am I doing wrong?

    I think I must comment though on Mr Sen’s idea: the interesting conclusion that some of Labour’s lost support in recent months is former Lib Dem voters moving from Lab to UKIP, presuming people looking for the most convenient “anti-government vote”.

    Why would we be suprised by this? At most elections since the party was founded the LDs have out-done the opinion-polls, often quite markedly. I have always assumed that this last minute “swing” to the LDs consisted of voters who either couldn’t make up their minds or wanted to register a “none-of-the-above” vote. The LD line that the last minute swing to LD represented a sudden conversion experience due to their excellent community politics and commitment to STV is unconvincing.

    The LDs have a smaller core vote than the Big Two, both in absolute terms and relative to their actual vote. More than half of their vote in 2010 appears to have been this “carriage trade”. If the Canary Coach House goes downhill (following a change of management and amalgamation with the Blue Boar, say) the customers will look elsewhere. Perhaps they’ll look at the old Red Lion they used to stay at before. But if a new hostelry (The Rathernotbe Inn, proprietor N Farage) opens its doors across the street, we should not be surprised that quite a few of these carriages find their way into it’s courtyard.

    Bit elaborate that imagery, but 18th Century enough to appeal to UKIP voters I hope!

    (Come to think of it, this is probably why I never get moderated – nobody can be bothered to work out what I’m saying…)

  38. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 18th June – CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -34

  39. pete b

    “There are several simple solutions to the so-called housing shortage.
    1) Stop all immigration
    2) Deport all illegal immigrants
    3) why not cap housing benefit at £12000 pa in London, and say £6000 elsewhere?
    4) Allow council tenants to sub-let. ”

    Simple? It’s impossible to do no 1, even if it were desirable. No 2 it’s not clear how you would identify the “illegals”, how you would detain them and where, and where you would deport them to, even assuming you could find a tame judge to ignore the law. No 3 assumes that the cause of the housing shortage is housing benefit, rather than the other way round, and there is no evidence that such a cap would reduce rents and number 4 would create a nightmare of shady absent landlords and the councils and housing associations would have not knowledge or control over who was living in their properties.

    They are neither simple solutions nor would they, in my opinion, address your issues.

    Rent controls, a Government building programme, possible property tax, these would be simpler and more directly approach the problems.

    Curbing immigration isn’t easy and I’m not comvinced that doing so is the cure-all that you and many others seem to think it is.

  40. @ Steve2

    “Okay, I’ll elaborate Reg. You struggle to think of ‘an English identity’ so I will assist:….etc…..”

    Yes, but apart from that what have the English ever done for us? [Thank you Monty Python]

  41. The UKIP Slump continues (fingers crossed).

  42. Postage Included
    I am happy to give you a few tips on how to ensure regular visits to the naughty step.

  43. ALEC

    Help to Buy is certainly controversial. But you must remember that it is available for new build-and so is encouraging housebuilding :-

    http://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/daily-news/house-building-surges-as-controversial-help-to-buy-scheme-kicks-in/8649238.article

    It is also time limited.

    It’s successor-a mortgage guarantee scheme due in January I think ( ?) is much more problematic since it is available for because it is available for new & existing homes.

  44. ALEC

    Looks like that link gets PayWalled.

    So here’s a quote from the AJ article :-

    “The residential sector saw year-on-year growth of 29.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year and rose to its highest level since the start of 2008, according to the Office for National Statistics.

    The underlying value of private residential projects starting on site was also 15 per cent up in the three months to May compared with the same period last year, according to Glenigan.

    Andrew Whiffin, economist at Glenigan, said a rash of large schemes starting in May, including a £180 million Help to Buy-eligible development in Brentford, showed ‘the Government’s [Help to Buy] scheme is helping to boost construction activity in the sector’.

    Booming consumer interest in the equity loan initiative – which launched in April and offers buyers up to 20 per cent of the cost of a new home below £600,000 – suggested ‘early signs of a pick-up in the housing industry,’ said CBI head of housing policy Lucy Thornycroft.

    More than 4,000 people reserved homes in Help to Buy’s first two months. The scheme is for new-build homes and is set to run until April 2016. In January, the government will launch a mortgage guarantee scheme for which all homes, new and existing, will be eligible.”

  45. Morning everyone,
    Well my guess last night at the YouGov Poll wasn’t actually that far off!
    I said Con 32 Lab 39 LD 11 and i was one point out on each.

    Con 31 (32) Lab 38 (39) LD 10 (11)

    Not too bad for me I must say!

  46. UKIP Support less than half that of LD in anyone under 40 and the Labour Tory split in the Under 24’s back where we would expect it.

    It only appears to be with the retired that UKIP still seems to be holding up in the high teens. I suspect this group also accounts for the inordinate importance placed by some on asylum and immigration, more important than health ,tax, welfare, crime and education!

    A visit to my dear old mum’s area , the least ethnically diverse in England and the skeleton coasts inland cousin would appear a typical example of this.

  47. Dear me we are typing a lot of nonsense about the housing crisis aren’t we.

    On supply and demand, hours prices are set by the market and closely linked to jobs. House prices are higher where the jobs are. There are more jobs in the South East so prices are higher.

    That creates a demand for housing which creates construction work and higher rents and more sales which boosts economic activity in those areas creating more jobs.

    Regional housing booms become local economic drivers (national ones in London’s case) which accelerate and exaggerate existing regional differences.

    We could “build up” but it would boost the areas where demand and jobs are already high and be as likely increase house prices as drop them.

    I don’t remember the massive house building in the London Docklands being a boon for first time low income buyers?

    As to immigration or housing benefit, the largest single reason for the disconnect between supply and demand is the changing demographic in household type.

    The largest anticipated house type by far in the next twenty years is single bedroom, often single occupancy.

    If you have a million people living 4 to a house you need 250k houses. If it drops to 2 per house you need 500k, if it becomes only 1 you need a million.

    If we keep this up and every adult wants their own home we will pretty soon need 40m.

    Peter.

  48. @ STEVE

    “The UKIP Slump continues”

    Until the Euro elections is my guess and then….

  49. @norbold

    “The UKIP Slump continues”

    Until the Euro elections is my guess and then….

    Or until such times as their economic policies are given a good amount of air-time.

    Their ideas of huge tax cuts for the rich will not be a popular measure.

  50. @Peter Cairns

    What you say about London isn’t quite true. Yes, people have always flocked to London for work, it had always had more available jobs, hence the need for homes and the driver for the building of homes.

    But…in the last 20 years or so, the entire housing policy has changed. Instead of being based focused on first time buyers – and hence witgin the reach if those on average incomes – the focus has shifted to existing owners buying second homes. This approch in general bares no relationshio to the cost of living.

    Yes, there will always be a prime market at the very top – Chelsea, Docklands, Hampstead Garden Suburb – but the average price of ordinary housing even in poorer area far outstrips average earnings as there is a real death of supply. Builders have simply failed to build enough new houses in order to inflate the cost of any new developments, they do build.

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