This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. YouGov’s recent polls seem to have been showing a slight downwards trend in UKIP support, with a couple of 12s and 13s starting to appear. There has been some discussion of UKIP’s position in recent weeks – largely started by that ICM which appeared to show them dropping 6 points in a month, but which was actually largely a reversion to the mean after an odd poll the month before. UKIP’s support has NOT suddenly slumped, but looking at the YouGov daily poll they do seem to have gone off the boil a bit:

It shouldn’t be a big surprise, immediately after the local elections they were receiving massive media coverage, that has now receded a bit. The point to remember is that while the short term publicity boost from the locals appears to be dissipating, they are still substantially up on before the locals.

The rest of the YouGov poll today (full tabs here) had the regular question on which party was best on various issues. The Conservatives have a 2 point lead over Labour on which party people prefer on the economy, 27% to 25%. Labour have substantial leads over the Conservatives on the NHS (35% to 21%), education and schools (32% to 23%) and unemployment (30% to 24%). The Conservatives lead on immigration (28% to 18%) and law and order (31% to 23%). On Europe the Conservatives and Labour are equal on 21%… this is worth noting. I often see the assumption that Europe is a strong issue for the Conservatives, one where they are most trusted than Labour. It really isn’t the case.

Also worth reading today are an interesting piece by Hopi Sen on where Labour’s lost support has gone in the last couple of months. Hopi has sadly committed one of my pet hates and looked at what has happened to 2010 past voters for each party without considering the chunk that are saying don’t know or won’t vote – but it shouldn’t change the interesting conclusion that some of Labour’s lost support in recent months is former Lib Dem voters moving from Lab to UKIP, presuming people looking for the most convenient “anti-government vote”.

Finally there is a piece by Peter Kellner up on the YouGov website looking at the gap between voting intention and best Prime Minister, something I’ve written about at length before and won’t rehearse again, but highlighting both how Miliband trails Labour, but also how Cameron continues to out pace the Conservatives.


104 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. Fascinating:-

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/18/conservatives-win-generation-y-older-voters

    Hopefully David Cameron will be thinking about those top two graph lines.

  2. Geting back to Ukip !

    As many Ukip candidates were not really expecting to actually get elected in May, the first of,i’m sure many Ukip county council by-elections has come up.

    27th June Worcestershire CC Stourport on Seven.
    All six major parties plus one health independent, who nearly took the seat in May.

    It looks like a 4-way marginal so could be of interest.

  3. Colin – interesting although they authors offer no evidence that the better Generation Y support for the Tories is due to individual responsibility themes.

    Just as arguably many ‘conservative’ Asian voters still vote Labour perhaps some young voters with conservative economic outlooks have supported LD or Lab due to the Tories past illiberalism on social issues.

    Cameron personally has reached out to these voters (not just young of course) apologising for Section 28 and Thatcher calling Mandela a terrorist, plus supporting civil partnerships and introducing gay marriage and generally being much more inclusive.

    Some are sceptical that he is genuine, I am not, but the resulting Triangulation is the same either way with typically some conservative older voters unhappy with a proportion peeling away; at least temporarily to the UKIP but imo most likley to vote Tory in 2015.

  4. JIM JAM

    Thanks.

    I agree-they don’t.

    I was interested in the downward drift in Con VI of older voters-partly because I am one-but partly because the over 60 demographic in YG Polls seems to show a Lab majority so often. I have assumed this feature was MOE from small sub-samples.

    But it does seem to gel with the trends shown in the MORI study.

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