This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is now up online here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. All three polls today are showing a nine point Labour lead, though of course, that is co-incidence to some degree – remember that other companies like ICM, MORI and ComRes’s phone polls are showing smaller leads.

The rest of the YouGov poll asked a couple of questions about the G8 conference and some questions on generational advantages. On balance people have a positive opinion of the G8 summit – 41% of people see meetings between the wealthiest countries to work together as a good thing, 24% take a more negative view as see it more as a club for rich countries that ignores the wider global problems. The public are divided down the middle on the policing of any protests, with 38% thinking the police should do all they can to stop violent protests, even if it limits people’s rights to peaceful protest and 38% thinking the police to do call they can to allow the freedom to protest, even if there is some risk of violence.

On the issue of tax havens 56% think countries regarded as tax havens are acting in an immoral way and should change their rules regardless of what other countries do. 22% think they should wait until agreement can be reached between all countries so the problem isn’t just moved elsewhere.

The majority of people (60%) think that today’s children will end up worse off than their parents were. The baby boomers born in the 1940s and 50s are seen as by far the generation that received the most advantages and opportunities and the 1960s are seen the generation when it was most opportune to be a young adult starting out in life. Perhaps surprisingly there is not a huge difference in opinion between different age groups, whenever respondents were born the baby boomers tend to be seen as the best off.

In terms of government spending on different generations, overall respondents think every generation gets less than its fair share (though families with young children are the group that is most commonly seen as getting more than its fair share). Here there is a big difference between the generations, with each generation most likely to see itself as being the most hard done by.


211 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 30, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 14”

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  1. My grandparents bought their house in Bristol in 1969 for £16,000. My granddad was a chartered surveyor and my grandma a nurse, so they weren’t terribly off. THey sold the house in 1998 for £210,000, enough to buy another house in Suffolk outright.

    My parents bought my current house in 1997, a semi in a cul-de-sac in rural Leicestershire, for £57,000 in 1997. Now it’s worth about double that, but since they’ve divorced and are splitting the money, it’s not enough for them to get anywhere new and for my dad at least (he’s 60) it isn’t worth getting another mortgage.

    On the welfare state debate we had a while ago, I have another personal anecdote. Until I was about 14, my parents were fortunate enough to be able to raise me without the need for the child benefit they received. Over that time, they saved about £6,000, intitially under the expectation it would pay for at least a large chunk of my university living costs.

    Over the course of my life, those savings have been reduced to the purchasing power of two university terms.

    I cannot see how abolishing students grants was in any way ‘aspirational’ or one of the other buzzwords conservatives like to use, because all it has served to do is wipe out my parents’ attempts to save for my future.

    Cutting the rope lets the balloon float higher, but it lets nobody else get in.

  2. @Mrnameless,
    Abolishing student grants, and bringing in tuition fees (started under Labour) was necessary due to the dreadful state of funding the Universities were in, it’s covered in a lot of detail in Blair’s book. Whilst the huge expansion in Univeristy graduates under Labour was in theory a good thing (can be argued both ways!), it’s brought immense funding challenges, which actually the only tactic some universities had to cover, wa to levy ever more expensive costs to overseas students. Therefore to an extent grant abolishment and tuition fees were inevitable consequences of Labour policy.

  3. I used to get 6d a week pocket money ages ago somewhere – if yer interested,

  4. I accept some level of tuition fees were probably necessary, but what I don’t understand is which it was necessary to treble them first to £3,000 per year and then to £9,000. I’d have happily paid £4,500 plus a graduate tax if that was what it took but the rationale behind the 21k boundary seems flawed.

    If university is supposed to allow people access to better paid jobs than they would otherwise have, it seems illogical to have a means test that discourages people from having earnings over £21,000.

    Incidentally, does anyone know what the cost of completely funding further education would be at current levels of enrolment?

  5. @MrNameless

    It seems it is time for the younger generation to start becoming politically active. Massive tuition fee debt, then no jobs once you graduate, having to live at home until you are in your 30’s because housing is unaffordable, while the government just keep inflating the housing bubble and adding more and more debt that will have to be repaid by your generation.

    But until more of you start voting, no one is going to take any notice of you. Not that I know who you would vote for anyway, as I can’t see any party has policies designed to balance out that gap yet. But as a starting point your generation is going to have to start organising politically and start turning out at the polls.

  6. ” He’s recently had his 3rd child and wants to extend into the roof as he can’t possibly afford a decent-sized house in Surrey. Can he get a morgtgage for this? Can he bu**ery.”

    Er – why have a third child then?

  7. @Alec

    They’re not always planned…:-)

    rgdsm

  8. Experiences vary much more than people seem to think. My Grandad (born 1870) saved up until he could buy a house at age 40. My dad (born 1919) didn’t even get a mortgage till he was 40, living in rented accommodation till then. I (born 1951) paid off my mortgage by age 40. My daughter (born 1980) paid off her mortgage by age 30.

    It might be expensive to buy a house in the south-east, so why not buy one somewhere else?

    I refuse to feel guilty about when I was born. Though there were some advantages, there was plenty of downside. I had schoolmates die of diptheria and be crippled by polio. My playground was a bomb-site (literally). There was still rationing when I was a small boy. Hardly anyone owned a car or telephone, televisions were just becoming widely-owned. No internet, no computers, mobile phones, cds, DVDs, MRI scanners, etc etc. Working week was much longer, hardly anyone went to University. Threat of imminent nuclear war at any moment, etc etc.

    Every generation has its own advantages and disadvantages.

  9. @ Turk

    …sadly she was not able to make a full recovery and has been left disabled on the left side of her body.
    —————-
    That is sad; perhaps with physiotherapy things might improve for her. Other than that, I will now hope for a ‘miracle’ for her whenever I see your comments here.

  10. @Turk,

    I didn’t pick up on your wife’s stroke until I reread your previous posts. I’m sorry to hear about your wife’s situation: you have my sympathies

    rgdsm

  11. @Alec

    I will not dignify your patronising and mindless reply with a justification.

  12. Alec

    I have 4 kids, should I have kept my legs crossed?

  13. Shev
    You had a good point. I tend to follow the impact of demography on VI, e.g. attitudes of retirees to retirement age, pension and housing policy of to the NHS, or the impact on economic behaviour of late marrtage the growth of a ‘singles’ section of the population (including a third of people at 30 still living with their parents, because these are measurable data and may have measurable impact in the tables; and because politicians and their advisers do base policy on these data. But it is all too easy to fly off into abstractions. Thanks for the reminder.
    CHATTERCLASS
    “And over 50% of over 40?s expect their financial situation to get worse over next 12 months. Under 40?s is where there has been an improvement in outlook.”Just so, and a reason why many facing retirement age are having second thoughts about where the holiday money, or the golf club fees will come from, or for that matter the funds they wanted to provide for a grandchild’s education.

  14. RiN\
    “I have 4 kids, should I have kept my legs crossed?”

    I think you might find that that would make no difference. i hesitate to offer advice, but a quiet chat with your better half might be a good idea.

  15. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 17th June – CON 31%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -37

    Looking at the tables I think it’s clear that Labour support is strong everywhere but the “Rest Of The South”. I wonder whether the dip in Lab support (or realignment of “don’t knows” to UKIP?) has all mostly taken place in the Tory heartlands? There doesn’t seem to much reduction in Lab polling anywhere else.

    Crossbreak caveats apply, of course.

  16. It may be that Labour supporters in Tory strongholds have realised they’ve not a hope in hell of winning, so they vote for UKIP either because they support their more populist policies or they want to frighten the Tories.

  17. The Polldrums continue.
    With the exception that the absence of Farage from our screen for once, what a relief, seems to be having a dampener on UKIP support.

    The proposed free trade agreement between the EU and USA worth an estimated £100 Billion for EU economies might possibly make it to the news as a positive EU story, but I rather doubt it will get a mention in the right leaning press.

  18. TURK

    I am pleased that your wife is making such good progress & have no doubt she receives encouragement & support from you & her family.

    I understand that time & determination are the great healers for stroke victims.

    Best wishes to you both.

  19. PETEB

    Good post-here here.

  20. Sovereign Bond yields continue nudging up everywhere. UK yields now at a four month high.

    Nervousness at an end to monetary stimuli pervades & no one wants to be last out in a Bond Rout .

    …speaking of Bonds, that Co-Op bail in is brutal for the Bond holders. A cessation of interest payments, and a conversion to equity holdings-with a haircut.

    Still- the boss of The Co-operative Bank says its ethical credentials will not be undermined by its move to listing. So that’s OK.

  21. Blues lead among 18-24 year olds.
    Reds lead among 60* group.
    Very odd

  22. Allan Christie [if you are not off to skule yet]

    I see the Labour lead continues to “plummet”.

    By the way I have a suggestion for you for when you go to BIG skule. Older Scotch kids love everything English [just like the Americans] so, if you wear an Engand footy shirt and affect a posh English accent you will have loads and loads of mates.

  23. Colin

    Have the Bond Vigilantes arrived at last?

  24. Morning Everyone

    So, we begin another week of YouGov Polls beginning with this 31 – 40
    Settled down to the usual ‘norm’
    Although its starting to look as though some UKIP votes are ‘plodding’ back to the Cons but very slight!
    As usual we need to wait until perhaps the end of the week before a pattern might be a little clearer!

  25. LEFTY

    lol.

  26. OZWALD

    Very.

    The rule seems to be -The Parts are Meaningless. The Sum of the Parts means Something.

  27. So another policy announcement from Labour-Twigg on Education.

    It and it’s recently emerged companions , Welfare Policy , EU Policy & Public Finances Policy confirm my belief that the GE Campaign will be very interesting.

  28. @Rich + Nameless

    University expansion was actually a Thatcher policy and Major was the first to set a formal participation target (which was actually met by Labour in 1998). The clue in the designation of the post 92s shows that this was also Major (and an extremely brave, clear-sighted and excellent thing it was).

    There seems to have been an awful lot of historical revisionism about HE from the reactionaries who were (and are) still sore at Robbins, let alone the Major expansion and, for one reason or another, would like it to seem as if it were all a Labour idea.

    The issue of whether it was necessary to charge students for HE is a little more complicated than it appeared. On the one hand you have the unequivocal point that most of the population have never, and will never, actually go to university and that those individuals who do so have (probably increasing) career advantage – although in the recent economy this might be better expressed as ‘reduced career disadvantage’.

    On the other, we have the point that a healthy economy of the kind we want in the future requires a large (and, probably, increasing) supply of graduates and that even if you do not go to university, you benefit from other people having gone.

    I rather think the second points have been buried more than they ought.

  29. Wise words for the Conservative Party from Peter Kellner:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/06/18/cameron-must-stay/

  30. Is it just the time of year when the polls become static, as there is not much going on really that would affect parties fortunes ? The next main event will be the government spending plans announcement in July. But I doubt this is going to make any difference to polls.

    During 2014 we will have the EU elections and the Scots independence referendum. These will be the main events that will dominate politics and may overshadow any budget sweetners that the coalition look to provide to help their election chances. If the Tories come a distant third to UKIP and Labour in the EU elections, then I can see trouble ahead for Cameron. Then there could be a major headache if the Scots vote to leave the UK. The government would be consumed with negotiations about separation and Labour would face real problems in dealing with the consequences to their party.

  31. CHRIS RILEY

    If it is desired to employ your second issue as a reason for taxpayers to pick up the whole tab, then taxpayers will ( or should) require university courses to facilitate the needs of the economy.

  32. REG OF THE BNP

    What’s the BNP’s policy for pedigree mongrels?

  33. PAUL CROFT

    I do speak with a posh accent you Wee, sleekit, cow’rin, tim’rous beastie.

  34. Peter kellners article in yougov “Cameron must stay” about DC the polls and voting intentions is good reading today.
    Just about sums up the current state of play re current VI.

  35. COLIN

    From your link..

    “Let’s start with voting intention. Yes, Labour holds a steady 8-9% lead, enough to secure an overall majority. But the striking thing is how small this is, not how large. In past parliaments, governing parties have often lagged 20 points or more behind at this stage. They have invariably gained ground as the election drew near”
    ……….

    It’s already happening, the gap is narrowing ignoring the odd out-liner..

  36. @Colin
    “The rule seems to be -The Parts are Meaningless. The Sum of the Parts means Something.”
    ———————–
    Agreed. It’s just that when the parts switch about so much that I wonder whether I should consult Mystic Meg instead of believing a poll. :-)

  37. @RiN – “I have 4 kids, should I have kept my legs crossed?”

    Not at all. Fewer humans would be better for the plant, but it’s a personal choice thing. You don’t complain about having a house that is too small or not enough money – that’s where I pull people up.

    If you have multiple children, expect to spend more, and please don’t burden the rest of us with your concerns if you find you are financially stretched. Some of us took the choice to limit family size to suit our income – it’s really quite easy to do.

  38. ALLAN

    Not sure of that on current evidence. If/when they get back to a gap of 5% I will feel they are making progress.

    I have always felt that the GE campaign will introduce an entirely new & different dynamic. As already stated , the more Labour Policy announcements we get, the more I look forward to that.

  39. OZWALD

    lol.

    Perhaps she writes some of them?

  40. I would have thought that the cost of living would have influenced VI. I think food prices have rocketed more than they would have us believe, with lots of ‘hidden’ increases by way of reductions in size, add a bit more water, fresh air, sawdust, whatever. My usual brand of frozen fish was a 600gm packet and is now 480gm. Price on the shelf is ‘unchanged’. Hmmm 2.7% inflation ?.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22948333

  41. Allan Christie.

    Labour’s lead is slipping eh?

    You’ve just inspired Lefty’s Graphs[1] of the Day.

    http://oi39.tinypic.com/wrnrb8.jpg

    You might well be right. It was rock solid in the range 10-11% for 10-11 months after the Granny Tax Budget. Since Feb or so, it might well have slipped by 1% or so over 4-5 months. But that is primarily down to a loss in VI by both Lab & Con. See next post…

    [1] Plural! You lucky people!

  42. Now here is Lab’s lead over the Tories as a percentage of the Tory VI.

    http://oi43.tinypic.com/f4jj2v.jpg

    Absolutely rock solid in the 25-40% range since the Granny Tax. No sign whatsoever of any slip.

  43. OZWALD

    @”My usual brand of frozen fish was a 600gm packet and is now 480gm. Price on the shelf is ‘unchanged’. Hmmm 2.7% inflation ?.

    Nope-25%

  44. @R HUCKLE – All very true – if the Scots do indeed vote for total independence then the consequences for Labour are quite dire.
    There would be the distinct possibility that Labour would never be in Government again at Westminster as they would automatically lose 40-50 seats in an instant.
    The Conservatives although in principal a ‘Unionist Party’ wouldn’t really feel the loss in terms of seats.
    I personally don’t think it will happen when they start to work out the full consequences of ‘going in alone’.
    They can’t have it both ways remember.
    They sink or swim without any financial help from the rest of the UK.
    I don’t think some Scots have quite worked out how much unraveling would need to be done before they would be fully ‘independent’ of the UK.
    They just won’t take that dangerous step into the unknown. (My personal opinion)

  45. OZWALD

    I didn’t read your post properly-you were refering to the “official” inflation rate.
    I was too trigger happy-always a mistake.

    Apologies

  46. Not at all. Fewer humans would be better for the plant,

    -Why do they sit on it?

  47. Sine Nomine,

    Under current VI, Labour would win a majority even without their Scottish MPs.

    Take Scotland AND Wales out of the UK and Labour would still win.

  48. * In the sense that they’d still have an overall majority of 13 MPs.

  49. @Sine nomine – “@R HUCKLE – All very true – if the Scots do indeed vote for total independence then the consequences for Labour are quite dire.
    There would be the distinct possibility that Labour would never be in Government again at Westminster as they would automatically lose 40-50 seats in an instant.”

    This is a little bit of nonsense really. Firstly, in terms of history and numbers, it’s plain wrong. Labour last held a majority of English seats in 2005, after holding an English majority in 1997 and 2001. Tories are currently polling well below the levels they achieved in these elections, suggesting that notion that Labour would never hold an English majority again is nonsense.

    It’s very easy for people to look at geographic boundaries and overlay their own perceptions onto these. Tory problems don’t begin and end at the Scottish border. They are frozen out of most of northern England, all inner city areas, much of Wales, and they have underperformed their national score in critical London seats, while also facing stiff challenges from Lib Dems in the SW. Labour will win a majority of English seats again at some time reasonably soon – it’s the way English politics is working.

    Secondly, people always forget that politics reacts to events, always. The biggest difficulty both our main parties have is maintaining a grand coalition across widely diverse geographical areas. Southern Blairite Labourites are about as different to central Glasgow Labour Lefties as Nigel Farage is to Caroline Lucas, but somehow they have to construct a message they can sell to both.

    Post independence, Labour would face a much simpler balancing task, as Labour England would not have to worry about securing their Scottish seats against the SNP, so could safely adopt a policy position that satisfies more English concerns without fear of losses in the north. Likewise, Labour Scotland would be free to pursue a more left wing agenda to face off the SNP, without worrying about whether this scares voters in marginal seats in Kent.

    Tories, by contrast, would gain nothing. They have given up years ago on ever holding anything in Scotland, and their critical fight remains trying to balance the English UKIP type vote with English swing voters. Their problems will not go away if Scotland breaks free.

    The entire point about independence is that it means, er, independence. There would be two, entirely separate and different Labour parties, free to pursue whatever policies they felt suited their completely separate electorates.

    The notion that independence would prove terminal for Labour is completely and utterly wrong. Polling statistics prove it is wrong, and a sensible analysis of the political consequences of independence on both countries enhances the simple historical statistical view.

    Indeed, post independence, Labour would stand a very good chance of securing power in both Scotland and England. Can we say the same of the Tories? Indeed, Labour is the only party that could win power in both nations, and in my view have little to fear as a result of independence.

  50. Ozwald

    The method of calculating inflation, is IMO deeply suspect, of course there have been many changes to the method since the 70s and almost without exception those changes have resulted in a lower inflation rate! One of the statistical games they play that really annoys me is “substitution” for example, if the price of baked beans is rising fast the inflation number crunchers assume that a % of consumers switch from Heinz to a cheaper alternative and adjust down the inflation rate to account for that, I don’t know about you but I think that’s cheating

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