This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is now up online here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. All three polls today are showing a nine point Labour lead, though of course, that is co-incidence to some degree – remember that other companies like ICM, MORI and ComRes’s phone polls are showing smaller leads.

The rest of the YouGov poll asked a couple of questions about the G8 conference and some questions on generational advantages. On balance people have a positive opinion of the G8 summit – 41% of people see meetings between the wealthiest countries to work together as a good thing, 24% take a more negative view as see it more as a club for rich countries that ignores the wider global problems. The public are divided down the middle on the policing of any protests, with 38% thinking the police should do all they can to stop violent protests, even if it limits people’s rights to peaceful protest and 38% thinking the police to do call they can to allow the freedom to protest, even if there is some risk of violence.

On the issue of tax havens 56% think countries regarded as tax havens are acting in an immoral way and should change their rules regardless of what other countries do. 22% think they should wait until agreement can be reached between all countries so the problem isn’t just moved elsewhere.

The majority of people (60%) think that today’s children will end up worse off than their parents were. The baby boomers born in the 1940s and 50s are seen as by far the generation that received the most advantages and opportunities and the 1960s are seen the generation when it was most opportune to be a young adult starting out in life. Perhaps surprisingly there is not a huge difference in opinion between different age groups, whenever respondents were born the baby boomers tend to be seen as the best off.

In terms of government spending on different generations, overall respondents think every generation gets less than its fair share (though families with young children are the group that is most commonly seen as getting more than its fair share). Here there is a big difference between the generations, with each generation most likely to see itself as being the most hard done by.


211 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 30, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 14”

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  1. hmm, moderation. Let’s moderate.

    I like to think we are a far more collective society than bullyingly nationalistic. But I might of course be kidding myself. And I do fear as more and more social exclusion and the continuing pulling up of the ladder out of reach of those at the bottom end, we will see more and more extreme right wing supporters with real and growing “chips on their shoulder.”

    But so far the polls indicate that Reg’s views are in a minority. Long may it remain so.

  2. Not sure what’s being moderated here…

  3. SHEV
    “Whether you live to 80 instead of 75 nowadays is irrelevant because you have had to work 5 years longer and you are losing the best days of retirement when you are more likely to be healthy and active.”
    How do you assess whether, on the other hand,working 5 years longer, would not turn out to be the best days of retirement; that is, whether working, and being paid for it, preferably on matters of interest to you and with people you like, is not better than dong the shopping, taking the dog out, watching Siberian snow tigers or depressing news on the TV. or spending lots on drinking too much and listening to other old geyzers in Tenerive?
    AMBER
    Doing accountancy or FD would not have qualified you as a Worker rather than as an Intellectual in the Soviet Union, but you would still have, as you an Col do now, used a lot of ocular nerve and brain energy, and you might have saved the glass or tractor engine factory from going under, and kept 30,000 people in jobs. I think you would have earned your Heroine of the Socialist Soviet Republic Medal alright. (Never agreed with the Leninist/Chayanovian concept of peasant drudgery).

  4. Morning Everyone,

    Could I just ask what has all this chat got to do with Polls and polling – or have I missed something?

    It just seems a bit odd and something that would be great on another chat site but not on this one.

    Just a thought!

  5. Don’t think a lot of polling action today.

    But one thing that might have some impact on future polls is G8 If Cameron makes a big issue about Global tax avoidance and Transparency and then continues to refuse to publish His own tax returns combined with the opacity of Osborne’s family fortune which is as I understand it quite legitimately held in a blind trust in the Cayman Islands paying no tax .

    Then maybe we will have something more significant to discuss than whether paying around 8% on a mortgage of £20000 or lessover term is really the equivalent of paying 4% on a mortgage of £200,000 and how the former was all down to cleverness and nothing to do with blind luck of birth dates.

  6. So, if the Lib Dems are only intending to target 75 odd seats in 2015, the 57 they have and a few others, what does that mean for the fights where they are or are not standing?? (politicalbetting). The Liberal vote has split Labour share since 1981. Does this mean more Con seats become marginal, because there are a lot where the LD share is greater than the diff between Con and Labour?

  7. SINE NOMINE
    Oh Dear! 60s+ have been polling in a majority for Labour. Does this VI reflect a majority not too much concerned about the lowering of the retirement age or other mechanisms to permit continued working beyond retirement age, payment of tax, a lower burden on the pension bill? Is this a social or demographic trend beyond the issue of party or government pension policy management? A debate not relevant to VI?

  8. @John Pilgrim – I understand your point but its just getting all too deep for some of us whether its all linked or not.
    If you take that particular argument to the extreme then every single subject under the sun could be termed relevant.

  9. I don’t think the tax discussion on global tax avoidance will benefit any party in particular. It was only the other week we had allegations of Labour receiving donations in shares to avoid paying tax, so until one party is whiter than white, I don’t see how one can benefit over the other in the eyes of a now rather cynical electorate.

  10. I am left wondering if the Lib Dems will field a candidate in every constituency next time – particularly safe seats like South Shields where they’ve not a hope in hell of even vaguely affecting the outcome.

    Might it be better for them to focus their campaigning and money on the 200 or so seats where they’re either defending or in second place?

  11. @ John Pilgrim
    Of course polling and reasons for it are relevant discussion. It does not have to be partisan.
    I think the reason may be to do with the NHS. The majority of pensioners are not wealthy. They are probably in favour of means testing winter fuel payments. But the collapse of the NHS is a really big one: this is the generation that witnessed its formation. The problem for the Tories is that it did get better. People now expect to be seen and treated before they die of the condition. And it is collapsing and is probably going to get worse. The A&E crisis and lack of beds is happening in summer. Can you imagine the coming winter flu season?
    A lot of pensioners would like to work on. My Dad is nearly 80, still runs his own business and teaches for hours without a note in his hands!! He says he would die if he stopped.

  12. @ me nameless.
    The article says they will field but not campaign.

  13. There will be no change of Lib Dem approach compared to previous elections – they have limited resources so tend to leave it to local parties to put up whatever fight they can in the great majority of seats, focusing their central resources on around 100 ‘winnable’ seats.

    All that is happening in 2015 is the number of seats deemed ‘winnable’ by the LDs is being reduced from 100 to 70 (which is about how many they targeted in 1992 and 1997 IIRC and pretty realistic).

    BFR

  14. @John Pigrim
    And over 50% of over 40’s expect their financial situation to get worse over next 12 months. Under 40’s is where there has been an improvement in outlook.

  15. @ John Pilgrim

    I think you would have earned your Heroine of the Socialist Soviet Republic Medal alright. (Never agreed with the Leninist/Chayanovian concept of peasant drudgery).
    —————
    LOL! :-)

    I think Colin’s wife would be more deserving of a medal than either he or I. Unless I am mistaken, she kept house & has raised a daughter with disabilities who now participates fully in society; therefore I view Colin’s wife as having done the ‘hard work’ which allowed Colin to pursue his career. He can correct me if he reads this & feels I have misinterpreted his situation.

  16. LDs strategy makes sense but they will field candidates in all GB seats I am sure.

  17. Chattering class

    Talk of the collapse of the NHS is highly overstated, yes there is a problem in some area’s with A&E and of course the aging population will throw an extra burden onto it , but talk of collapse is nonsense.

    I’m part of that aging population as is my wife, recently because of my wife’s stroke she had cause to use the NHS she had marvellous support, treatment and care during her two week stay in hospital, and even in A&E when I trapped my leg in machinery on the farm 3yrs ago, my treatment for a broken leg couldn’t have been better, I even got a helicopter ride thrown in for free.

    I’m not suggesting everything is perfect but I lived in America for 12yrs, if you want to see third world medical treatment for poor people, give there system a try.

    It’s true the NHS has problems it can never have enough funds and never will have enough funds, but it’s also true many of the problems are being greatly exaggerated by politicians from all sides scoring political points coupled with intrenched working practises, it seems whether true or not that nearly any sort of reform is opposed by the various unions within the NHS on ideological grounds rather than what’s best for patient care
    .
    But the one thing is for certain, it’s not on the edge of collapse, the mantra of “we’ve only got 24hrs to save the NHS” never was true and with the billions of pounds we throw at it , it’s never going to be true.

  18. Turk

    The mantra will become true the day we stop believing it

  19. House prices.

    They are definitely much more unaffordable for today’s children than they were in my day.

    1975. Average house cost = 20,000£
    To buy house with x3 salary = need an income of 7,000£.

    2013. Average house cost =170,000£
    To buy house with x3 salary = need an income of 56,500£

  20. (Oops. That posted before I had finished. Sorry).

    And there is no way that 7,000£ in 1975 would equate to 56,500£ in 2013.

    I had not far short of 7,000£ when I started work in 1975. At a pretty ordinary desk job.

    No ‘pretty ordinary desk job’ pays ‘not far short of’ 56,500£ today.

  21. In fact the average house price in 1975 was only 10,000£. So you’d have only need an income of 3,300£ to buy one.

    Most apprentices could have bought one. Nowadays you’d need to be a GP.

    How the young are going to cope is beyond me!

    And the UK is going to have a massive economic problem because of this in the not too distant future.

  22. Well I know my plan for life after uni is to take my US passport, head to an airport, and start my life somewhere with an economy that, while not perfect, is at least recovering and growing.

    Others of my generation are not so lucky, and rightly or wrongly there’s a lot of animosity among us towards the elderly. Expect things to get very ugly for pensioners in about 25 years.

  23. TURK

    I hope your lady wife is recovered now.

  24. Speaking of US politics actually, I’ve not been able to find an answer on this but what would be the situation if someone wanted to join political parties in two different countries.

    For example, if I was a member of the Labour Party and wanted to join the Democratic Party, would that get me ejected from Labour?

    I’m not planning to do it, but it’s an interesting question.

  25. Richard in Norway

    At 53,000,000,000 a year and rising, perhaps its time we had a proper grown up debate on how the NHS is run and funded, instead of defaulting to dogma and silly untrue mantra.

  26. @Chris Todd
    Really? I think you are remembering wrong! What ‘ordinary desk job’ did you do?!

    FYI, average nominal annual earnings in 1975 were £2,291, so your £7k a year was roughly three times average wages, or equivalent to £75k a year now…

    To give another comparison, I started work as a graduate accountancy trainee in 1983 – 8 years of high inflation later – on £5,100 a year, which was a pretty decent starting salary for ’83.

    £7k a year in 1975 was a very, very substantial salary indeed.

  27. I’m pretty sure my first job as an Administrative Officer in the Dep of Environment in 1978 paid under £5000 pa.

  28. Lefty’s graph of the day.

    House prices from Nationwide Building Society data, RPI (cumulative) from ONS data and average nominal earnings & nominal GDP from h ttp://www.measuringworth.com/index.php

    All re-based to 1952=100 (because the Nationwide house price database starts from there.

    http://www.measuringworth.com/index.php

    Take what you want from that. Seems to me that house prices have more or less tracked average earnings for the whole period, but with huge oscillations in the era of deregulation. Perhaps the regulation of mortgages in the earlier period artificially depressed house prices? Clearly over the last 10 years, house prices have far out-stripped average earnings[1] (which they didn’t in the period of 1950-70 when interest rates were similar to what they have been for the last decade.

    Also interesting that GDP growth has significantly outstripped average earnings growth since the mid-70s.

    Finally, interesting that the great economic crashes of the last 40 years (1973-, 1980-, 1990-, 2007-) have all come when house prices have momentarily caught up with the GDP curve. It’d be interesting to see if that was an general definition of a strongly over-heated housing market.

    [1] And of course, the situation would be starker still if we used median earnings, given that these have risen much less quickly than average earnings over the past 30 years as the proceeds of growth have gone disproportionately to the very richest. Although in that case, perhaps this would also have an effect on median house prices. I don’t have the numerical data to hand for the medians.

  29. PK, let’s try again. Here’s the graph.

    http://oi43.tinypic.com/oatzzk.jpg

  30. OK even…bloody laptop…

  31. My first job was yts and paid £1300 a year, Ahh the early 80s those were the days

  32. Maybe someone better versed in economics than I could explain to me: Is the difference between nominal GDP and the RPI index a decent guide to productivity gains over time? As a simple first-order guide?

  33. House prices going up month on month now according to the news today. Certainly going up round me. Agree we need more house building, but it’s not going to affect house prices one jot, we just have too big a challenge given the size of the UK and the inherent finite nature of small desirable areas.

  34. @ MRNAMELESS

    “If I was a member of the Labour Party and wanted to join the Democratic Party, would that get me ejected from Labour?”

    No, not unless you moved permanently to the USA and had no UK address.

  35. Oh goody, I love playing ‘Four Yorkshiremen’!

    Right……I started work in 1968 on £390 a year (that bit’s true). We paid t’partners for our lunch and they charged £400 a year rent on the hovel we lived in.

    (2nd voice) You had a HOVEL! Sheer luxury! etc etc

  36. @richard in Norway,

    I loved the 80s! Had a wonderful childhood. Playing football until it went dark, fishing in the little village pond (never catching anything), playing with Star Wars figures and pretending I was Luke Skywalker or Darth Vader. Life was so simple then!

  37. ‘At 53,000,000,000 a year and rising, perhaps its time we had a proper grown up debate on how the NHS is run and funded, instead of defaulting to dogma and silly untrue mantra.’

    WE look at all aspects ofspending, not just the NHS in isolation – and don’t renew Trident and the NHS is paid for. Simples.

  38. LeftyLampton,

    (1) The GDP deflator is a better measure of prices than RPI or CPI.

    (2) Nominal GDP divided by the GDP deflator = RGDP.

    (3) RGDP less inputs = productivity.

    For reasons that economists still debate, productivity growth is procyclical i.e. it’s faster during booms than during busts. So RGDP is a rather good guide to productivity, even though they don’t have to move in line with each other e.g. you can get RGDP growth by expanding the workforce or producing losts of capital, without productivity going up; similarly, in the 1980s labour productivity growth grew fast relative to RGDP growth, which was part of the reason why we had respectable growth over the decade and appalling unemployment.

  39. Does the G8 ever affect polling?

  40. THose born around 1940 like me were blessed. The 30 years after 1945 were the only years in British economic history to have full employment. I did’nt know anyone unemployed until I was at least 35. All the things my father fought for are gradually being taken away from the working classes. Every initiative taken since around 1980 has reduced diluted the economic condition of poorer peole as well as democracy itself.

  41. Bill P

    Thanks for those. It’d be interesting to see the productivity figures over the last 3 years. Given that emolument has risen while GDP has stagnated, this must be the longest period of zero or negative productivity growth in living memory.

  42. By the way. I’ve just realised I was a bit daft comparing GDP growth and earnings growth earlier. I wasn’t comparing like with like because it was TOTAL GDP but AVERAGE earnings. That doesn’t allow for the increase since the 70s in the number of people employed. That accounts for some, though not all of the discrepancy in GDP and earnings growth.

  43. Former French foreign minister says that Britain was already planning supporting the rebels 2 years before they existed!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz-s2AAh06I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  44. Painting toilets in the factory where my dad worked. Yes, really.

    (however, my second job involved writing software for an IBM PC AT: it was all downhill from there…)

    rgdsm

  45. Jack

    Exactly how would scrapping the cost of Trident which is estimated at 2 billion a year make any difference to NHS funding, any savings on scrapping Trident would be spread around the whole of government spending or be part of the government cuts on public spending.

    And In case you missed it the coalition have been making cuts for the last three years in other services the idea is to slow the pace of public spending not to divert it to the NHS.

    Thats why the NHS was ring fenced to stop it arguably falling foul of spending cuts, but the whole cost of the NHS will still rise year on year and a proper debate on spending and orginisation will have to take place and to that their will be no simple answers.

  46. I started work in 1975 as a graduate valuer (HEO equivalent) in the Revenue on £2,896pa. Was a pretty good salary. Bought first house in 1976 – a solid 1960s 3-bed estate semi in Chatham – for £9,000 (parents paid deposit; I’m a baby boomer remember). I had to take lodgers for 3 years to cover costs, but life was easy for me, and always has been.

    My stepson, now 32 with an MSc (not my piddling BSc) and a position as a senior civil engineer in a large national construction company, has just about managed to afford (on a salary of over £50k) a one-third equity on a small house. He’s recently had his 3rd child and wants to extend into the roof as he can’t possibly afford a decent-sized house in Surrey. Can he get a morgtgage for this? Can he bu**ery.

    I know this only anecdote, not statistically solid. But I’ll offer odds that for every child of the 1980s better of than his 1950s forebear, there are 10 the other way around.

  47. Colin

    Thanks for your thoughts, sadly she was not able to make a full recovery and has been left disabled on the left side of her body.

    But she has retained most of her mental ability and her speech is much better, strangely when her speech came back it had a very middle class English tang to it, which was very odd as she is an American with a Southern Texas drawl, which has now returned thank goodness .

  48. Good Evening All.

    I left school, age 18 in 1973. Five years of study followed and started my state school teaching career in 1978-1979 with my PGCE. My wife took her PGCE in 1980-1981, and came to the school where I was learning my trade,

    The early 80’s were grim for teachers, but things improved in the late 1990’s.

    Now we are returning to the numbered grade exam system which was in existence when I was a boy, and was abolished in the 1980’s.

    Pay improved but is now stagnant.

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