There are new polls by ComRes, Opinium and YouGov in the Sunday papers. Toby Helm at the Observer has tweeted the Opinium results and John Rentoul has just posted up the ComRes results here.

Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 27%(+1), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 20%(-1). Changes are from their poll a fortnight ago, and clearly don’t show any massive change.

ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror meanwhile have topline figures of CON 26%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 19%(nc). Changes there are from the last online ComRes poll a month ago.

Here we have two online polls that still show UKIP up around 20% in contrast to the ICM and MORI telephone polls earlier this week that both showed UKIP at 12%. As I said when the ICM and MORI polls were published, the lower score for UKIP wasn’t a sign that their support has collapsed again, but the result of methodological differences between telephone and internet polls. For some reason most online polling companies (particularly newer online polls – YouGov tend to show levels of UKIP somewhere in the middle) tend to show higher levels of UKIP support. This could be due to the lack of interviewer effect, or could be a result of sampling problems for one or the other. Either way, its a reminder to take into account the house effects between different pollsters, and not to mistake differences in methodology for changes in support.

Looking at the other findings in the polls, ComRes also asked about whether people had favourable or unfavourable opinions of politicians and parties. They found Cameron was no longer more popular than his party, but neither was he a drag on them – 23% had a favourable view of Cameron, 23% had a favourable view of the Tories. Ed Miliband continues to trail behind Labour – 28% have a favourable view of Labour, compared to 20% for Miliband.

YouGov’s Sunday Times poll will likely surface tomorrow morning.


43 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

  1. It’s a bit confusing to have this divergence in UKIP support between pollsters. The difference between 12% and 19%/20% is pretty significant.

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  2. Forgot to add percentages to post in last thread:

    Lab 864 32.5%
    UKIP 731 27.5%
    Con 704 26.4%
    TU & SAC 136 5.1%
    Lib Dem 120 4.5%
    Green 107 4.0%

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  3. @AW

    Interesting that regardless of the polling company (inclusing YG’s recent polls), the Labour lead seems to be 9%. Is that pure chance, or can we take something telling from that?

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  4. @statgeek

    What I take from it is that the Labour lead in the national share (if there is one) at the next election won’t be any greater than 9%, which means the swing from Con to Lab won’t be more than 8%. We’re in mid-term and this is when the main opposition will probably be getting its best results.

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  5. What I take from it is that labour’s lead is currently somewhere not too far away from 9%. Nothing else.

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  6. Within the next week 62.5% of this Parliament will have elapsed – hence, the end of midterm is nigh!

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  7. The disparity in the UKIP vote is also down to whether the question asked “prompts” with party name. Many pollsters just mention Tory, Lab and LibDem (or other) in the question.

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  8. comres cross breaks

    UKIP 19% OVER UK but only 7% IN SCOTLAND

    where SNP 41% to LABOUR 27%

    I know all the caveats but still of interest.

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  9. @Ernie

    Agreed!

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  10. Tensions in the Labour Party regarding the EU referendum private member’s bill? Not much.

    The Labour whip is saying that MPs may return to their constituencies on Thursday as usual unless they’d like to attend the debate. Therefore it is not a whipped abstention.

    The LDs are playing it the same way, unless I’m behind on the latest rumours.

    This approach is being taken by Labour & the LDs because the widely held belief is that the private member’s bill for an EU referendum will either:

    1. Be hi-jacked by Tory MPs who want a referendum before the 2015 GE; so some Tories will have to vote against the amendment to the timing & thus the Tories themselves will be seen as having kicked the can down the road; &/or

    2. The bill will die a slow death in the Lords.

    If there’s a banana skin lurking for anybody, it might be for the Tories themselves. I expect the public’s perception will very much depend on how the mainstream media report it.

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  11. Definitely some tensions in the Labour Party over the EU referendum bill. The best way to tell this is to watch the big Labour supporters on here discount it!, a sure sign its an issue.

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  12. @ Amber star

    The private members EU ref bill is only due for an initial debate on 5th July. It is not a government bill, so I doubt it will ever leave the HOC’s, as it would have to pass all of its stages, before it could go to the HOL. Therefore most MP’s who are in favour of UK EU membership won’t bother to attend. It will just be the approx 150 Tories, 50 or so Labour and NI Unionists who are anti EU who will speak mainly. There are normally a few pro EU MP’s who take part in such debates.

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  13. @ R Huckle

    Yes, by all reasonable assessments the EU bill has no chance of being passed – &, as you say, it may not even make it as far as the Lords.

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  14. @ Rich

    Definitely some tensions in the Labour Party over the EU referendum bill. The best way to tell this is to watch the big Labour supporters on here discount it!, a sure sign its an issue.
    —————
    LOL :-) I’m guessing that in Rich’s world Tony Blair did have an affair with Wendi Deng because he’s vigorously denied it.

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  15. I know we are in the “polldrums” (copyright Amber), but is it the case that that the predicted Labout majority is still 94 as it seems to have been for weeks? Or have I missed something?

    I made the light-hearted prediction to friends that a Labour-Conservative grand coalition was a possibility. This possibility has, ahem, not quite come to pass yet, but is the EU bill a small straw in the wind, ditto the Labour and Conservative right support (some libertarian exceptions) for the “Snooper’s Charter” another such sign?

    And watch out for the German elections in September.

    Just a thought.

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  16. @Amber, @Rich

    There is certainly an argument still going on within Labour over an EU referendum. Interesting that Tony Benn has now come out for it as well.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2013/06/15/tony-benn-on-politics-pipes-and-a-new-dislike-for-shaving/

    But why use “tensions” to describe that? Labour, unlike another political party, seems capable of accommodating internal disagreement over its approach to the EU without tearing itself apart.

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  17. @ Alister1948

    I would love to see a Grand Coalition. Would be quite an eye opener. Alas, it won’t happen.

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  18. @ Rich

    I would guess that the Lab disagreements over an EU referendum might just be down to tactics rather than any strong in/out views. So whereas the Tory MP’s wanting to leave Europe will be very vociferous and critical of Cameron because they deeply believe in leaving the EU, the Lab dissenters will be more muted because it is just a calculation on what they think will improve their electoral chances.

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  19. PHIL HAINES, good evening to you.

    From last thread: Labour should, imo got that economic policy out into the public domain and defended it for two years or so, rather than leaving things until the GE campaign.

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  20. Phil Haines

    “Accommodating internal disagreement over it’s approach to the EU without tearing itself apart”

    I seem to remember Harold Wilsons u-turn over EU membership was defeated by a one day Labour conference which in turn lead to the EU membership arguement rumbling on within the Labour party to the early eighties which ended in a huge split in the Labour party over the issue and the formation of the SDP.

    Not to mention the 72 rebel Labour MP,s lead by Roy Jenkins who voted against the Labour party whip to support the Tory government over membership of the then EEU..

    I think your find those arguments were pretty public.

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  21. @Turk

    Not to mention the 72 rebel Labour MP,s lead by Roy Jenkins who voted against the Labour party whip to support the Tory government over membership of the then EEU..

    I think your find those arguments were pretty public.

    As indeed the Conservatives were very split over Corn Law reform.

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  22. I read somewhere that EM may be wishing to avoid being seen to vote against a referendum, so that he is not compromised when he draws up a GE manifesto which includes a commitment to a referendum.!!

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  23. We have one poll showing a narrowing Labour lead, and one showing a widening one. This probably indicates that nothing has changed.

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  24. @StatGeek,

    “Interesting that regardless of the polling company (inclusing YG’s recent polls), the Labour lead seems to be 9%. Is that pure chance, or can we take something telling from that?”

    Yep, except Mori and ICM. But they may well be within the MOE too. Only time will tell, I guess.

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  25. Chris Todd

    The difference is the the EU splits still remain in both the main political parties and it’s no use pretending the don’t.

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  26. @Turk,

    True, but I would definitely say the EU issue splits the Tories much more than Labour. It’s a problem they may have to overcome or put to one side if they are to hold onto power in 2015 IMO.

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  27. Using Comres to analyse the UKIP voting intention

    Page 47

    307 voters represents that 19% support for UKIP. But when asked “Generally speaking what do you think of yourself as”

    84 of those 307 say UKIP – 27% of UKIP vote
    122 say Conservative – 40% of UKIP vote
    50 say Labour – 16% of UKIP vote
    10 say Lib Dem – 3% of UKIP vote

    So why would people intend to vote for a party they don’t generally identify with?

    Reasons I can think
    - I am upset with my real party, I want them to change so I am going to tell this pollster I am voting for someone else to get them to change direction/leadership.
    – the above group can be split into people who will really vote for the protest party, and those who are just telling the pollster they will but will really vote for the party they identify with.
    - I really intend to vote for a different party to stop a worse party winning, so tactical voting

    Also, are more people now really starting to identify with UKIP?

    If we go back to August 15-16 page 21, the UKIP voting intention was only 8% back then.

    At that time only 3% of voters generally thought of themselves as UKIP
    Now that is still only 5%

    Until people start to identify themselves as generally UKIP, I think we can assume the polling figures for UKIP above are overstated. But how overstated is anyones guess – I don’t know how a pollster can weed out those who say they will vote one way but intend to actually vote another way?

    I think as a start they should try breaking down the reasons why people intend voting for a party other than the party they really identify with – how much is due to tactical voting (Labour is strong in my seat, Cons will never win so I will vote UKIP to keep Labour out) – and do those voters count enough to make a difference; and how many are sending a message. If those sending a message, do they intend to vote that way in only local elections, only European elections, or also in the general election? How many of those are in marginal seats, how many in strong Tory seats, or strong Labour seats, or strong Lib Dem seats? Basically try and understand those voters better to make a better assessment of which way they will really go in a general election?

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  28. Did a bit of maths using the 2010 turnout figures and if you cut off Scotland and NI’s electors and the 7% of Scots supporting UKIP, their vote share rises from 19% to 20.1% in England and Wales.

    I suspect it will rise further should one take Wales out of the equation (lumping it in with the Midlands where UKIP are strong is not helpful) and attempt to work out how their vote was concentrated in the local elections, which might give us some indication of where they could have a serious impact.

    They shouldn’t win seats on UNS, but we know their NS is very much not U.

    In English and Welsh seats, that vote share if distributed evenly would win around 9,000 votes per constituency. However, in some seats (Boston and Skegness for example, at least their council wards) they were polling 40%+ with some regularity – enough to win handily in a GE.

    In other places, like Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire, they failed to take a single seat. Someone needs to make a big map coloured and shaded by vote share, so we can work out areas of likely high UKIP vote.

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  29. ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror meanwhile have topline figures of CON 26%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 19%(nc).
    ————-
    Using Richard’s analysis posted at 12:14am, a rough calculation of where the polls would be, if everybody was allocated back to the Party which they identify with:

    UKIP 19% – 14% = 5%
    CON 26% + 8% = 34%
    LAB 35% + 3% = 38%
    LDEM 10% + 1% = 11%
    Other/ DK/ WNV = 2%

    But as I believe ComRes to be one of the least reliable firms, I don’t know why I bothered doing this. ;-)

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  30. On that predicted vote share, Labour would have a majority of 46. That should worry Cameron, because it means that even if he regains all the UKIP voters (which he won’t do) he’ll still lose quite badly if the Lib Dems don’t change back.

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  31. Interesting reading the post mortem on the recent disasters for pollsters in Canada, where they have got 3 recent elections completely and spectacularly wrong. One of the reasons provided is:

    4) Canadian voters are becoming more strategic. In both Alberta and British Columbia, it is said here voters who wanted to scare the governing parties but didn’t really want change sent a message via the pollsters who called them. In other words, they’re lying — knowingly and with a plan — to pollsters. The impact of this is magnified by over-reliance by online panels.

    http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2013/05/snatching-defeat-jaws-victory-lessons-bc-ndpers-everywhere

    How do you separate the protest voters into
    - those that will really change their voting intention and vote for the protest party
    - those that are ‘sending a message’ but don’t intend to vote differently
    - those that will just stay at home

    Polling companies will need to get better at answering those questions or face a loss of credibility like they are currently facing in Canada.

    http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2013/05/21/bc_election_shows_its_time_to_take_a_humbler_approach_to_political_polling_editorial.html

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  32. Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 14th June – CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -35

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  33. Just noticed after I cut and pasted that this is dated 14th June, but it does appear to be this morning’s poll.

    I think the most striking feature of these polls is the low Tory VI – at or (well) below 30%. I’m not certain this is genuine, and is almost certainly an artefact of the UKIP position, but it must be starting to worry CCHQ if they remain at these extremely low levels.

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  34. Con 30%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%: YouGov/ST.

    Perhaps people currently giving an LD voting intention are less concerned about civil liberties/privacy issues. Some of the 2010 LDs for whom this was a concern seem to have migrated to Lab or UKIP.

    Irrespective of the legalities, a significant proportion of the population thinks the security services either already has, or should have, have access “to almost everything about us”. A majority of people also think Snowden should not be prosecuted for leaking confidential documents to the press.

    No questions about “overweening Bruxelles bureaucracy” today.

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  35. @TURK. So let’s see. You have to go back to the 1970s to find any significant split in the Labour Party over Europe and I’m sure, knowing you you would have found a more recent one if you could, while the Tories are currently tearing themselves apart over it.

    Ever heard of the expression, “Clutching at straws”?

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  36. Richard
    Thanks for your interesting post. In the last link reference, Christy Clark looked more like a daughter of hers on the hoarding than the reality in front of it.

    A new photoshopping tactic for visually challenged politicians?

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  37. The £1bn Co-op Bank rescue package is reported to have been signed off by BoE.

    It includes a haircut of up to 30% for more than 5000 small Bond holders.

    Ethical Investment ?

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  38. I should hasten to add that Mrs Clark looks very nice so my point is not about her (phew!).

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  39. The YG poll is interesting as it shows how fickle people can be. The over 60′s appear to mostly agree that they are doing better that younger generations, but the majority also want more from government. If they were asked in the poll about benefits, they would probably also say that the UK government provides too many.

    So it is interesting whether any opposition could ever go into an election saying that the would review benefits including pensions, to ensure fairness for all generations. Current pensioners would then presume that they were going to be made worse off and this might put them off when they come to vote.

    Does the fickle nature of people lead to political parties being economical with the truth about their policies ? Personally I think this may be the case.

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  40. R HUCKLE

    @”Does the fickle nature of people lead to political parties being economical with the truth about their policies ?”

    I think that offers far too much excuse for politicians.

    If “people” think politicians are fickle, lacking in firmly held principles, and unwilling to give a principled lead which is unpopular………why should “people” think beyond their own interests?

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  41. Le Thread Neuveu

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  42. merci beaucoup

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