The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out today, with topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 12%(-6). The poll shows a sharp drop in support for UKIP, but this is probably something of a reversion to the mean after last month’s poll.

In May ICM had UKIP all the way up on 18 points, not unusual for companies like TNS-BMRB, Opinium or Survation that tend to show much higher levels of UKIP support for various methodological reasons, but very unusual for ICM who typically show the lowest levels of UKIP support. It looked odd then, and in hindsight it was probably a bit of a rogue poll… though it is worth noting that even 12% is a significant increase on the level of UKIP support ICM were recording before the local elections.

The poll also asked people’s preferred team on the economy, with Cameron & Osborne continuing to lead Miliband and Balls by 28%(-7) to 19%(-5), a drop in support for both teams since ICM last asked in December. There are also signs of Conservative disunity registering with the general public, only 44% of people now think that David Cameron has the backing of his party, compared to 62% at the end of last year.


83 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 29, LAB 36, LD 12, UKIP 12”

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  1. @lefty

    It’s okay, we don’t need windfalls any more, ‘cos “expansionary contraction” has saved the day!!…

    @RiN
    I know, it’s like Waiting for Godot or something…

  2. I just realised that my entire adolescence (starting Feb. ’08) has been spent in economic misery. How thoroughly depressing that is.

  3. RICH
    “Do like that lady from the FT, she seems to talk a lot of sense. Agreed with Lamont that a lot of our growth during the 2000s was allusery and debt fuelled.”

    ———-

    It’s not unusual for growth to be fuelled by debt. Lamont ought to know all about that. Except for the last couple of years where we piled on the debt only without the growth.

  4. @Rich

    “Norman Lamont on newsnight, always worth listening too.”

    Norman Lamont’s grasp of economics matches yours of English grammar. Remember Black Wednesday?

  5. It comes to something when one almost wishes to have Lamont back. At least when he realized his economic strategy wasn’t working he changed tack…

  6. What’s the assertion that 18% for UKIP from ICM is a rogue poll from?!
    Sounds like you’re trolling.
    Not Lib/Lab enough for you?
    I don’t suppose failing to prompt for UKIP has any effect on YouGov and ICM polls does it…

  7. Last week I was starting to believe Labour was finally getting the idea on the economy, but that news seems to have faded and got lost, and Balls hasn’t properly explained what his plans are.

    Reading the Guardian article I think I concur. None of the above please. Tory economic policies are clear, and they are clearly a failure, the deficit is not going down. Labour policies are unclear. Lib Dem – see Tories. And UKIP which seemed to hold some promise seems to have descended into a lets divide the country into those born in Britain and those who were not.

    So while the protest vote flirted with UKIP, they seem to be floating off again, but with no where to go.

    We need a new party with a charismatic leader like Farage or Boris, but who has clear policies to fix the economy. That new party should find instant success, there seems to be a large percentage of voters looking for a sensible home. Anyone?

  8. Fair enough. I’ll be the charismatic leader.

  9. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 11th June – CON 30%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%; APP -33

  10. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 11th June – CON 30%, LAB 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%; APP -33

  11. Nothing to do with politics or polling, but I thought you might like to know that this afternoon at 4:00 p.m. I shall be appearing on ITV1 in the quiz, Tipping Point. Top prize of £10,000. Can I win it, will I get knocked out in the first round or will I achieve something in between? There’s only one way to find out and that’s by watching it!!!

  12. Over 60’s return to Cons.!

    Yeah.

  13. Seal Pup,

    You are fairly new to the site so forgive me if this sounds condescending.

    ICM/YG show lower UKIP than some others pollsters and no one knows which is the most accurate.

    What long time visitors have learned is that it is the trend that with a particular pollster that is worth looking at.

    So If the UKIP started to get 2-3% extra on the YG dailys on say 6 polls out of 8 over 2 weeks we can be confident that they have had a boost, even if YG are only showing 17%, for example, where others may be around 20.

    In this context the ICM at 18% appeared to be very high and probably rogue, as they only report once a month the opportunity for this to be tested is limited.

    What Anthony is saying is actually better for the UKIP in terms of a narrative. Some amateur reporters could have a headline saying the ‘UKIP support slashed losing 6% or 1/3 in a month’. Anthony is saying that the 18% on ICM methodology was flawed so inferring such a large drop in support for the UKIP is wrong.

    Also note his positive comment re the UKIP support ”though it is worth noting that even 12% is a significant increase on the level of UKIP support ICM were recording before the local elections”

    There are some threads from Anthony on bad reporting of polls that are excellent and informative with examples.

    We do seemed to have reached a new polldrums (copyright Amber) with Lab high 30s, Con high 20s LD around 10%, UKIP 15% ish. Nothing obvious on the horizon to alter these numbers until the conference season but we may see a small drift to the Governing parties over the summer with opposition parties not on TV as much and the Economy improving a touch, at last.

  14. @ Norbold

    Goodluck! :-)

  15. CrossBat11
    How well you have reminded me of how glad I was not here from 1977 until 1992. Mind you, 1992 to 1996 was pretty miserable too and UK’s failure to maintain the value of its currency nearly caught me out very badly. Luckily i retained most of my cash in guilders (became euros) but did lose out with what I brought over to buy a house. Every time Lamont appears on TV economics programmes, I find myself asking how he retains the brass neck to do so.

    All ‘economics’ for voters is personal to one’s own experience. That is why the incessant arguments on here about ‘growth’ etc are of little relevance to voters. It’s one’s personal ‘growth’ that voters are interested in. If all the ‘growth’ goes to a select few, the majority will not ‘feel good’.

  16. @ Colin

    Not quite. I expect a slow down (maybe with one Q negative mark) for 2-3 quartets and then some acceleration again. So, overall, it could be similar annual figure. I’m more interested in the cyclical nature of the growth as it expresses the state of the economy better in my view.

    I expect the slowdown exactly because of the private business – I don’t see any reason for them to invest (but more for emptying inventories) in an enduring way. The weak M&A doesn’t seem to suggest immediate boom either.

  17. @ Colin

    I think there are signs of growth, but more analysis is needed to see whether this will be sustained. My instinct is telling me that after 3 years of stagnation, Europe in general appears to be in a recovery phase. Early days yet, but with some of the austerity measures being relaxed, people are starting to feel a little more confident.

  18. Morning everyone,

    Latest YouGov – Labour Lead at 8%
    Labour don’t seem to be getting very many 40% anymore –

    Will some be a tad concerned that in the main they appear to be slipping back a point or two rather than edging up to the low 40% as they really should be at this point in the political cycle?

  19. Strange how one can be made out to be making a partisan point when merely relating a personal anecdote. Of course i agree about all te other instances mentioned. How far should I go back to mention all the disasters of the past – the South Sea Bubble? What happened to me happened when it did and I can do nothing about that.

    On another subject, I see Lord Andrew Adonis is adversely critical of Johnson’s plans for London. May we thus assume he is the mayoral candidate for London next time or is my political antenna not picking up the right vibes?

  20. R HUCKLE

    Europe is the biggy.

    I find the signals & signs very mixed.

    The tussle between ECB & Bundesbank on the former’s Bond Purchase support programme is typical of the deep procedural & ideological differences still unresolved & lurking under the surface.

  21. Modest further improvement in Uemployment & Employment.

    Earnings showing a much needed increase at last.

  22. @Colin

    “Modest further improvement in Uemployment & Employment.”

    Scottish data is somewhat better than ‘modest’. A fall of 6,000 (offsetting England’s rise of 6,000), and a rise of 47,000 in employment over the period.

    If Scotland’s data were constant across the UK, it would be unemployment down 57,000, and employment up 540,000.

    (Not aiming at you, so much as adding to your starter for ten)

    Will the Union grow stronger though? :)

  23. I’ve checked AWs rules by the way and you are all on safe ground dscussing who was the worst chancellor in the last 1000 years.

    In fact he positively encourages it and says “the more who join in the better I will like it.” – and you can’t say fairer than that.

    I think they were ALL jolly good myself: sums are quite tricky and, with different currencies and so on it can’t be easy to remember which type of billion you are talking about and remembering its only worth thuppence.

  24. This is (or was, since I’ve now pruned most of it) exactly the sort of idiotic partisan back and forth the comments policy is supposed to avoid, stop it, all of you.

    Thankfully there should be a nice new MORI poll out in the next hour or two

  25. @Richard “We need a new party with a charismatic leader like Farage or Boris”

    I’d agree that a new centrist party would be welcomed by many but a leader like Farage or Boris? Are you serious? Politics needs more substance and less celebrity. Farage especially represents alot of thngs that are wrong with politics

  26. ^ This. We’ve too much emphasis on leaders and personalities and it distracts people from the issues. That’s why I think the greatest political leader in recent years in terms of that was David Steel.

    He never came across as particularly arrogant or self-important (in comparison to David Owen) and liked to present himself not as a charismatic stallion but as a nice guy with some reasonable ideas who would like to talk to you about them if you’d give him the time.

    Then again, that’s the same rationale behind which I like Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. To quote John Green, ‘The worse the haircut, the better the man’, and I think we can expand that to include public image generally.

  27. Anthony

    “Thankfully there should be a nice new MORI poll out in the next hour or two”

    Oh jolly good – that will be like ice lollies for the children. For a while anyway.

  28. ‘The worse the haircut, the better the man’

    Words to live by.

  29. Is not the UKIP result really saying the surge to them has stalled / peaked?

  30. nu fred

  31. NUFF READ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. “All ‘economics’ for voters is personal to one’s own experience. That is why the incessant arguments on here about ‘growth’ etc are of little relevance to voters. It’s one’s personal ‘growth’ that voters are interested in. If all the ‘growth’ goes to a select few, the majority will not ‘feel good’.”

    —————-

    Sure, how a government uses growth and distributes it matters. But you have to actually have growth to have a chance of distributing it, even if it is only pre-election treats. And a significant chunk of the population are more directly affected by growth, eg small businesses.

    Equally businesses may not be keen to redistribute via wages etc. Even in good times. But that becomes even more likely to be the case in bad times.

    A lot of discussion does not just focus on growth in isolation anyway but on whether it’ll be undermined by things like cost of living, about the young being left out, about how much it’ll progress beyond the South, about whether it should be accompanied by housebuilding etc.

  33. FPT

    Re: Lamont and the recovery from the last recession.

    Jonathan Portes at NIESR had some interesting observations a few months ago.
    http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/reflections-green-budget#.UbiPA2t5mSM

    I guess he WOULD have a benign view of the policies back then, given that he was working on economic policy at the Treasury in the early 90s. But the difference in approach between 93 and 10 is stark. And a couple of observations jump out of the page.

    “(O)n fiscal policy, I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. There is a simple, absolutely standard prescription for dealing with unsustainable deficit resulting from a recession.  It is the following. Announce, and commit clearly to, tax and spending measures to deal with the deficit.  But ensure implementation follows recovery, not precedes it.”

    “(M)ost importantly, growth, rather than specific tax or spending measures, is the prerequisite for restoring the public finances to a clearly sustainable track. A few years of 3 percent growth – and given the amount of spare capacity in the UK economy, there is no reason that should be infeasible, given good policy both here and in the eurozone – and much of the problem will simply vanish, as tax revenues rise and some spending falls. Moreover, to the extent that tax rises and spending cuts will indeed be necessary – and they will, just as they were in the 1990s – it will be much easier , both politically and economically, to deliver them in an environment where jobs are plentiful, real incomes are rising, and companies are investing.  By contrast, if growth doesn’t get out of the 1-2 per cent range, then we will indeed face the problems this year’s Green Budget identifies. ”

    Lamont and Clarke followed the textbook approach in 93- and the result was a rapid recovery in both growth and public finances which laid the foundation for the longest spell of growth and low public debt in well over a century. By contrast, current tragedy is based in Osborne’s resounding success in the deficit debate in 09/10, which boxed him and us into a corner from which we can’t reach the textbook.

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