The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out today, with topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 12%(-6). The poll shows a sharp drop in support for UKIP, but this is probably something of a reversion to the mean after last month’s poll.
In May ICM had UKIP all the way up on 18 points, not unusual for companies like TNS-BMRB, Opinium or Survation that tend to show much higher levels of UKIP support for various methodological reasons, but very unusual for ICM who typically show the lowest levels of UKIP support. It looked odd then, and in hindsight it was probably a bit of a rogue poll… though it is worth noting that even 12% is a significant increase on the level of UKIP support ICM were recording before the local elections.
The poll also asked people’s preferred team on the economy, with Cameron & Osborne continuing to lead Miliband and Balls by 28%(-7) to 19%(-5), a drop in support for both teams since ICM last asked in December. There are also signs of Conservative disunity registering with the general public, only 44% of people now think that David Cameron has the backing of his party, compared to 62% at the end of last year.