This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%. YouGov’s daily polling has shown Labour back in a single figure lead for the the last four polls (though even several polls in a row at the bottom or top of the normal margin of error don’t necessarily mean much – sure, the lead could have fallen again slightly as the Woolwich murder moved the media narrative away from Tory infighting, or it could just be co-incidence).

In other news we have another whipless MP to join Patrick Mercer in Newark, with Mike Hancock resigning the whip in Portsmouth South while he defends a civil court action over an alleged sexual assault.

UPDATE: There is also a new TNS-BMRB poll out today, they have topline figures of CON 24%(-4), LAB 37%(0), LDEM 10%(+3), UKIP 19% (+1).


189 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 16”

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  1. Neil A –

    We of course disagree about your.

    ”We are caught in a vice made of history and economic reality”

    Even Tebbitt has acknowledged that the Thatcher Government did not do enough to mitigate the shift away from intensive large industries and many have commented how others (Germany for example) de-industrialised in a more civilised and long-term manner.

    Lefties point and Pete’s are right imo that Labour did little for this group in 13 years. Benefits worked well until they became unsustainable but there was insuffciient attempt at attacking underlying imbalances in our economy.

    Also politically what they describe shows the limits of triangulation as you can’t annoy your base for ever. The buoyant state of the world (and UK) economy and the Tories being in denial for too long meant it took a long time for this to catch up with Labour but the growth of the UKIP shows that it is catching up with DC a lot quicker.

    I think Lefty is probably correct also that the anti-Eu anti immigration element that has peeled away from Labour will be difficult to attract for 2015. I share what I think is his view that many of these voters are actually traditionally left of centre and their attraction to the anti-EU and anti immigration UKIP is a result of being ignored (as they would see it) by Labour. Should Labour be able to address the underlying issues which will be tough but needs to be tried they can be attracted back.

  2. On the EU membership polling, which shows 51% would vote to leave. You can already feel that the right wing press are campaigning for an out vote, when there is unlikely to be a referendum before 2017.

    Will Labour and/or Lib Dems match the Tories at the 2015 GE in offering an in/out referendum EU membership ? Should they do so ?

    Personally I think that holding a referendum based on some form of unknown renegotiation is a mistake. Polling suggest that people would vote to stay in the EU, if the government says that renegotiation has been successful. You can bet that the right wing media will still campaign to leave. My fear is that people will vote based on silly EU related media stories and not on a balanced debate which covers all the issue people need to know about.

  3. Anthony – my comment is awaiting moderation.
    Could this be because my Internet Explorer setting is kaput and I am on the site through Chrome so not being recognized as the genuine Jim Jam?
    Apologise for using main thread to ask but don’t know how else to do so?

  4. Colin

    According to AW handy seat calculator the average of all the polls for the last 2 Years is around a 100 seat majority for Labour.

    Maybe they are all wrong.

  5. Good Morning All again.
    Ed Miliband is making his move to the centre, it seems.

    Game on for the GE in 2015.

    It will be close, I tink, nowhere near 100 plus majority.

  6. The EU referendum is our politicians playing with fire, if the Conservatives believe they can remove some EU rules which will diminish workers rights and then say we have a deal to stay in the EU and expect to win any referendum, that is not going to happen.

    The workers of the UK are not stupid, I am pro EU but if that scenario happens my vote will be to get out and to hell with politicians.

    If the politicians are stupid enough to play games with the countries best interests then so be it, the politicians cannot blame the people if the people vote out, it is the politicians and media that will have placed us in that position in the first place, all because of party politics.

  7. @ChrisLane

    Your mention of the hackneyed Red Ed attack line reminds me of early Tory attempts to paint Blair as a ravening leftie. The hilarious red eyes poster being a particular lowlight.

    They were absurd then and exceptionally absurd with hindsight.

  8. @toJim

    Iin italy the EU said that the steel plant at Taranto had to close. Italy said no. Nothing happened.

  9. @Tojim

    As far as I’m concerned, the EU forfeited its claim to be the guardian of workers’ rights when it implicitly endorsed the threat of arrest of striking public transport workers in Greece.

  10. Chris Riley
    The Blair redeye campaign was the brainwave of Steve Hilton apparently…l love it when the Tory party gets it wrong and thinks they have caught the zeitgeist.l suspect this may be the case with trying to link Trade Union membership with Mercer et al. And then spinning it as ‘clever politics’ !

  11. Apropos yesterday and swing. Today’s neat YG shows Labour level with the cpalition, having been 30% behind in 2010. A 15% swing with a “rubbish” leader and even worse shadow chancellor [so we are told] might cause me concern if I were in government…………….

  12. Another element which a number of us have also mentioned is the effect of polls to produce a tipping point. This may take a year or happen suddenly but, if things get any worse then it will be rats and ships time and the widening gap to Tory re-election will become wider.

    With a disaffected right wing membership and UKIP heading out from stage right to centre stage come the Euro Election, then nothing would surprise

  13. I know polling can change substantially over 23 months; however looking forward to GE2015 I believe it is going to be extremely difficult for Tories to win outright for the following reasons:
    1. Tories had 7.4% lead in 2010 which I think must be the maximum realistic lead and I cannot see them leading by more than 4% in 2015.
    2. LDs will improve to at least 15%.
    3. UKIP should get a vote of 8-10% and the increase from 3% last time will be mainly but not wholly from Tories.
    On the other hand, Tories should get some benefit from first time incumbency.
    I think the best the Tories can hope for is to win popular vote (which means nothing electorally) and to have a small lead over Labour in seats.
    Incidentally I can see LDs losing seats to Labour but holding those where Tories second due to UKIP factor and UKIP having no seats.

  14. Paulcroft

    “Level with the cpalition”

    Is this a breakaway party from Ukip, you turn your back for five minutes.

  15. Labour seem to have accepted today that they won’t reverse child benefit cuts – a further sign that Ed M has accepted universality is now breached, and cannot be restored. This is something of a shock move, but is gaining him some friends.

    This from Dan Hodges – “But there’s no doubt that in two key areas – welfare and fiscal responsibility – Labour really is starting get its act together. Much more of this and DUEMA (the Don’t Underestimate Ed Miliband Association) will be getting itself a new member.”.

    Interesting, as a key Tory attack line appears to be getting weaker.

  16. While I am in favour of universal benefits, I can see that restoring Child benefit to the richest parents at a cost of £2.3billion isnt a priority, not when there are other things that money could be used for.

  17. It seems to me that some keep coming on here to predict how the polls will look like in 2015 as though their predicted narrowing (Lab down, Con up and LD up a lot) was subject to the laws of the Medes and Persians.

    It would be OK if such political evidence existed but I see no such consistent historical evidence. They could widen, who knows?

    All we can say is that that the YG polls in May have been very consistently unaltered from a slight narrowing from Lab’s previous high and a continued doldrums for Con and LD.

  18. Alec – I think it has been apparent for a long time that Labour will reverse few of the welfare cuts. Granny Tax, CB etc – the exception may be the ‘bedroom tax’ due to the amount of energy spend opposing it and there will be adjustment but not repeal of the cap.

    The issue was always about timing and I always felt the 2013 conference was the time but EM clearly feels it is appropriate to go earlier to prepare the ground for the conference.

    FWIW – I like most members

  19. There seems to be a Survation poll for Sky news semi out.

    Sky (and also the Survation website) are only talking about the In/Out EU question but they have a link to tables which seem to have voting intention- I’m sure Roger Mexico helped me out last time I had a query like this- maybe he can do it again!

  20. OOps went early – FWIW – I like most members keenly advocate universality but support the need to break with this for our 2015 manifesto.

  21. turk ”

    Paulcroft

    “Level with the cpalition”

    Is this a breakaway party from Ukip, you turn your back for five minutes.”

    No: its me tie pin.

  22. Badger Cull poll:

    34% Opposed 29% in favour, DK 37%

    Which according to the NFU president translates into “not a big issue for the vast majority of the British Public”.

    Hmmm… even if you took 66% to 34% I would not call that ‘vast majority’.

    Over to you Alec….

  23. @ JimJam

    FWIW – I like most members
    ————-
    I was basking in the warm fluffiness of being liked… then you retracted. :-(

  24. Amber – to poach a new catch phrase I don’t like most members I love them (although it is hard to do so sometimes).

    Hope the warm fluffiness returns even stronger than before.

  25. @ Amber/Jim Jam

    To be honest I had my mind on Roald Dahl’s ‘My Uncle Oswald’ when I read your post!

  26. @John Ruddy,

    I’m not sure I follow the logic of your position on universal child benefit.

    You wouldn’t support switching £2.3bn from other budgets to Child Benefit.

    But you opposed switching £2.3 bn from Child Benefit to other budgets.

    All public spending is a compromise between priorities. Either giving money to rich people with children is a better use of money than spending it on something else (hospitals, deficit reduction, policing) or it isn’t.

  27. From the Times:
    “Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, made clear in a speech on Monday that he would use current spending plans devised by the Coalition as his “starting point” should Labour win the next election.”

    So like GB in 1997, who followed the same tactic for 2 years, with Prudence being mentioned in every sentence, he will follow the same plan. However when 2018 arrives will he continue to follow his mentor with, spend, spend spend, willy nilly and maybe even sell some gold if the market falls enough, or will he surprise us all and be a prudent Chancellor for a full 5 years?
    Vote Labour to find out.

  28. Neil A – you are going to hear a lot from Labour along the lines of it is not what we would have done but it is not a priority to reverse it.

    There will be criticism of inconsistency and questions along the lines of will you eventually reverse etc but I think these can be handled.

    The big one for me not in terms of the amount of money but symbolically is the 50p-45p tax rate. Regardless of laffer curve considerations EM/EB have to judge what message they are sending out.Very tricky for Labour who need to not appear anti-aspirational and it may be better to find other ways to get a bigger contribution from higher earners than straight back to 50p
    I reckon work will be ongoing around a hedged based on thresholds for top rates and maybe keeping 45p but having 50p over 1/2m a year or something like that.

  29. @Amber

    There is a world of difference between (1) restricting benefits available to higher rate taxpayers and (2) restricting benefits to the low paid or unwaged alone. The latter is what we normally consider to represent means testing, with all its faults.

    The most important differences are that with the former, issues of low take up do not arise, because the benefit remains available to almost all by default rather than by exception. Further, with the former, we do not effectively create in effect a ridiculously high marginal rate of taxation for the lower paid through benefit being withdrawn at relatively low levels of income. The effective increase in the marginal rate of taxation applies only to the higher paid, albeit with some lumpiness around the threshold point.

    I’m very comfortable in principle with Labour’s change of stance on benefits for higher rate taxpayers, if the reports we hear are confirmed. Socialism should indeed be the “language of priorities”. Cameron can highlight it as much as he likes – more fool him.

  30. shevii

    There seems to be a Survation poll for Sky news semi out.

    Sky (and also the Survation website) are only talking about the In/Out EU question but they have a link to tables which seem to have voting intention- I’m sure Roger Mexico helped me out last time I had a query like this- maybe he can do it again!

    Already looking at them (there’s 107 pages of tables so there’s a lot to go through):

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Europe-Poll-Data-Tables.pdf#page=83

    It’s actually a bit odd because they do ask GE VI and likelihood to vote in a General, but don’t then show the LTV adjusted figures, so these are the percentage without LTV with Don’t Knows (13%) removed:

    Con 23%

    Lab 37%

    LD 11%

    UKIP 22%

    Nats 3%

    Green 3%

    Lots of interesting Euro stuff with Yes and No effectively tied, Labour leading in a Euro poll. I’ll try to comment more later.

  31. I’m still unconvinced that the LD vote share will be more than about 12-13% next time. The reasons why it collapsed haven’t gone away. Also there are some very low Conservative VI’s being detected, low 20’s etc, if they are true then it won’t matter if the LD’s go back.

    About the 45p or 50p tax rate, why not split the difference and have it at 47.5p?

  32. And when I’m in supplying obscure polls mode, here’s one for Martyn.

  33. @Shevi – “Over to you Alec….”

    Badgers have been seen leaving the affected cull areas in droves – they’ve been planning this for months, direct from the AQ playbook.

    If I were Owen Paterson, I’d make really sure I lock my doors at night.

    @Robert Newark – I’m always tickled by the gold sell off thing. It’s something the Tories were doing, he carried on, no one raised any objection at the time as it was seen as a sensible way to get a more balanced asset portfolio.

    Prices go down, prices go up – Osborne has just ‘lost’ you and I a small fortune (not too far off comparable to what Brown ‘lost’) by holding onto gold at record prices and then not selling it before the market price crashed. Are we going to spend the next decade and a half blaming him? Of course not – that would be silly.

    Oddly enough, I do see hints of throwback politics in all of this. Today’s ding dong on A&E is a bit of a classic. The Kings Fund and other independent bodies are pretty clear that while GPs contracts in 2004 had some problems, they are not responsible for the rise in A&E admissions. Long term structural issues and the fact that A&E become so good that nipping into hospital for a minor issue was no longer a complete nightmare, are much more important demand factors in their view.

    Most important of all in the immediate time scale though, was the coalitions decision to scrap NHS direct and replace it with the botched 111 service. However, Cameron desperately needs to persuade voters that something that happened a decade ago is the only relevant factor.

    It’s almost as bad as Labourites blaming Thatcher for the 2008 financial crash.

  34. Right wing voters don’t like Doctor Who as much. I wonder why?

  35. @Alec

    But Gordon SOLD THE GOLD. He SOLD it.

    Repeat x1000 and you, too, can write for Guido Fawkes!

  36. AW – How come my post about voters seeing todays PMQ’s could see the UKIP percentage rise has dissapeared. They are gaining percentage points due to being NOTA, and being seen as the anti-politics party. Much more of the idiotic scenes at PMQ’s where the PM answers none of the questions but repeatedly drones on about Labours Child benefit u-turn would gain them even more points……is that too partisan?

    [Basically yes it is! More to the point, I have a general rule of not allowing comments after PMQs of whether the PM or LotO did well/badly, as it never rises above rather silly partisan cheerleading. Apologies that you clearly weren’t aware – AW]

  37. @ David

    45% of total inward investment goes to London – for the rest of England received 24% less than in 2010 (the rest of the UK increased).

    This was in today’s FT – just to help Colin’s reporting.

  38. Actually CPA expects 2% fall in construction in 2013 – so the happy trumpets about over 50 PMI in three sectors could be a little premature especially as the construction PMI was over 50 between 2010 and first half of 2012.

    I would be happy if I was wrong, but I think that by October the surge will run out of steam.

    @ Colin (from yesterday)

    Credit card payments increased in April (I didn’t say CC debt). Balance transfers actually do not increase disposable income – they help to reduce debt (the minimum payment is the same), but could also reduce spending (as CCs are maxed out).

  39. Thanks for clearing that up AW – PS It must be the first time ever I have been accused of being partisan towards UKIP ;-)

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