Following the very peculiar ComRes poll for Open Europe there is a more normal one out tonight – their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 30%(-2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+4).

This is the first ComRes telephone poll since the local elections and shows the same trend we’ve seen from other companies – a big boost for UKIP at the expense of the main two parties.


255 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. COLIN
    Please check R.Huckle’s post of 9.05 and Ken’s of 8.58, to which he was responding.
    Ken’s view, based, I suppose, on the Reuters and other reports, was that this was good news. I share his view. Huckie’s opinion that this would lead to Westminster and Brussels answering to Beijing by whenever, assumes that a commercial development and – as you emphasise – property ownership in a capital city lead to political influence. I suppose, so, within the laws and commercial practice of the UK and the City of London, which I should have thought would swallow it up and say Yum Yum.
    The history of Chinese commercial and population diaspora, notably in South East Asia, but also in London and New York, don’t suggest that it leads to political involvement that is not fully integrated with and supports national systems. On the contrary, a massive Chinese commercial investment is a hostage to economic and political fortune, much to be welcomed.
    Have I missed your point, though?

  2. SIMON
    Posts about housing, or immigration, or Chinese commercial investment in the City of London, and Boris’s support for it, concern indicators of and formative elements in voting intention. Thus, e.g., would massive investment in the East of London create employment in run-down areas, and thus affect the votes of Londoners? If that does not interest you, maybe you should stick to train spotting.

  3. EM rather poor rating with the general public is entirely the fault of Labour HQ keeping him wrapped in cotton wool and not over exposing him to public view.

    It would appear that Labours strategy is to keep EM from public debate on policy because thay know he is unpopular with the voters, which is unusual as leaders normally reserve that privialage to after they’ve been elected, not whilst leading the opposition.

    It is a pity Labour seem to have so little confidence in there leader because he is an intelligent man and although I would never vote Labour anymore, I would like to hear his alternative views to the other parties.

    Because the polling is so volitile I think it’s a mistake to keep EM under wraps, for Labour HQ to expect to win by default may work but it may prove to be a costly mistake.

  4. ‘You may be right, but it is ,perhaps woth pointing out that Labour has a bigger lead at present than it enjoyed 3 years into the 1970 – 74 parliament . The Tory lead in Autumn 1977 – 3 years into the 74 – 79 parliament was also smaller.’

    Yes, but Ed has a funny nose, unlike Mrs T or Mr Wilson, who were both utterly normal and unremarkable.

    Hang on…

  5. Ken,

    “you are of an analytical bent, I’m a gut feeling person, never the t’wain shall meet”

    Actually that’s not my point, rather more interestingly you are also an analytical person, you just don’t recognise it.

    Lots of successful people who talk about experience and gut instinct are actually using established techniques that can be classified and taught.

    They may not realise it or want to admit it but they do.

    Your own use of “Ockhams Razor” and the “Gordeon Knot” show that. You apply sound principles to your decision making process, what fits the facts is probably right, cut your loses when the costs get to high.

    The fact that you don’t acknowledge or articulate the underlining processes doesn’t mean there aren’t ones.

    Peter.

  6. Re debate on Chinese investment, I was reacting to this.

    “A Chinese business delegation, including the lead developer, ABP (China), described the deal as, ‘creating a 24hr mini-city so that Asian businesses can work on Beijing time, a gateway for Chinese and Asian businesses to set up their European HQ’s”

    If you look at what is happening in parts of Africa for example. The Chinese companies who are based there, are employing lots of their own people to do the mining, build the ports, the roads and the railways.

    Not saying that this investment is not a positive thing, but that you have to be careful to ensure that on balance it is postive for the UK.

    Does the phrase ‘ he who pays the piper, calls the tune’ apply ?

    As for whether this discussion is relevant to UK politics and polling, yes of course it is. Over many years politicians of all parties have celebrated foreign investment in the UK as it is seen as vitally important to whether the UK economy is successful or not. If the investment leads to jobs and GDP growth, then the party in government may gain as a result.

  7. @Simon

    Online clicky-box ‘polls’ on articles on newspaper websites are basically a joke, that shouldn’t be paid any attention to as they don’t give you any useful gauge of popular opinion at all. Not only are they going to be hoplessly biased to the readership of that website, but also easy to game, and couldn’t possibly even produce a representative sample of the people who read the website.

  8. PETERCAIRNS………..And on that positive note, I shall take my leave for lunch with a couple of, dare I say it, rather interesting, Fitch ladies, always a pleasure to be wined and dined by the brainiacs.

  9. R HUCKLE
    I think we agree. It’s a good thing, and in itself not related to political development.
    “Does the phrase ‘ he who pays the piper, calls the tune’ apply ?”
    It might be relevant to ask “Which piper?” Developer, Banks, lobbyists – it may well be that the City and Government, of whichever hue, will want to tighten up the regulatory systems, and that one of the purposes would be to build on this strengthening of commercial ties both with China and with the EU.

  10. RH

    “My gut feeling is that Labour enjoy a lead over the Tories of between 5 to 8%.

    This is not enough for Labour to maintain this lead and win in 2015”

    Para two is quite emphaticaly a statement – which you almost immediatey contradict with “it depends on etc etc”.

    What is the point of such posts?

  11. We were recently discussing here the possible poll effects of rising inequality.

    The North/South Divide, regional development, a housing crisis in London and the potential for another damaging property(Commercial &Residential) in London all were discussed.

    In that context a new major development in the city could be seen as a good or bad thing and more importantly will be perceived as such by different parts of the electorate.

    So as it is related to polling, how do people think different groups will react to this development?

    Chineses announce major commercial development in London!

    Inner London Average earning Tory?
    Inner London Working class Labour?
    Northern public sector Labour?
    Scottish middle class SNP?
    Home Counties middle income Tory?
    South east retired UKIP?
    South West wavering LibDem?

    Peter.

  12. simon

    “@AW

    Why don’t you create a forum for general chat, so the comments page can just be just comments about polls.

    I don’t want to have to wade through dozens of posts, and only find 1 at most about the polls”

    Anthony: While you’re at it can you do another forum for footy and pups?

    Thankyou in advance.

    Paul

  13. It’s funny how every time Labour has a mediocre poll we start hearing all these rumblings from conservative guts. A national bout of indigestion? Well, since we seem to be polling everyone’s entrails today, here’s the augury from mine:

    Has anything happened in the past three years to increase the 2010 Tory vote share? Yes, exactly one thing- the collapse of the Lib Dems. And polling consistently shows that more of them have gone to Labour by a ratio of at least 3:1. Let’s say they drop to 16%, which is generous given their current polling but not implausible with pre-election poll narrowing, tactical voting, incumbency advantages, etc. We can reallocate 6% of the vote to Labour and 2% to the Tories (leaving Labour on 36% and the Tories on 39%).

    If that were the only change since 2010, the UKPR swing calculator would give a hung Parliament in which Labour have a plurality and the Conservatives and Lib Dems together do not have enough seats to form a majority government.

    And of course that isn’t the only change. Every other thing that’s happened- the rise of Ukip, the unpopularity of the incumbent government, the difference in net approval between David Cameron and the Labour leader, the perception of divisions within the Conservative Party- disproportionately hurts the Tories relative to their position in 2010.

    My gut tells me that these numbers just don’t add up to a Tory victory in 2015, no matter how you digest them.

  14. Spearmint,

    Pretty much spot on.

    As ever the debate gets back to;

    We need solid reasons to show how and why the Tories can turn it around, not just the suggestion that they might.

    It’s possibility v probability. It’s possible they might but it isn’t probable!

    Peter.

  15. JOHN PILGRIM

    I was responding to these remarks from you :-

    “Take a look at Hong Kong (or Bangkok or Singapore, come to that), if you wish genuinely to see whether the Chinese government would involve itself in a commercial development of an Asian and ChineseEU oriented centre in London. There would be no benefit for them in doing so and no logistical basis for it – it would not be manageable.”

  16. Steve

    That was Carole Malone on Press Preview.

    She has a history of not telling the truth as is evidenced on her Wiki page & the upheld complaints to the PCC.

    Her pronouncements on Labour & Ed Miliband ought to be taken with an enormous bucketful of salt.

  17. Good Afternoon All. Sun is out on our beach.

    PAUL: you seem a habby bunny this half term afternoon.

    The Polls look very tight, I tink.

    Not a nice front page article on ED M today in THE TIMES.

  18. @CHRISLANE1945

    “Not a nice front page article on ED M today in THE TIMES.”

    The right wing journalists have been reading GQ.

  19. Another EU plan falls to bits :-

    http://www.euronews.com/business-newswires/1974328-exclusive-europe-plans-major-scaling-back-of-financial-trading-tax/

    It’s all looking a bit-oh dear this doesn’t seem to work-over there at present.

    Where is the Conservative spokesman saying “We told you so” ?

  20. CL1945

    It is the YouGov Poll analysis on the inside pages which is of interest.

    Mind you Gordon Brown supporters may generate a whistfull smile.

  21. wistful !

  22. Colin,

    “Another EU plan falls to bits”

    Eh, no; More the EU doing what it always does when it meets an obstacle, backing up and then pushing forward slowly or round it.

    They will get what they want in the end as usual it’s just “Softly Softly Catchy Monkey”.

    Peter.

  23. PETER CAIRNS.

    “Slowly” is right certainly. It is the modus operandi-not much appreciated by millions of young unemployed people one imagines.

    Can something which was not unforseen be an “Obstacle” ?

    Could we compromise on “cock-up” ?

  24. I have never bought a Murdoch paper but do allow myself to read when in coffee shops (local independant tax paying ones preferably) and have just read the articles in the Times about the poll numbers for EM.

    Our host is quoted and as ever more balanced that the paper itself whist his Labour sympathising boss is more pessimistic re EM, at least as presented by the Times.

    Looking at poll numbers from a perspective that is not searching for good news for our own team is something many of us could do with attempting,

    A thread on this if time allows would be useful rather than selective quoting by me and others.

    Ken – When I travelled to France I was unable to conduct business in French but French people appreciated my doing a little conversationally which helped the work. I know from my current business with China that any attempt to know some Mandarin (could be Cantanese depending on the business) is most welcome and invaluable in terms of non-price competition. My youngest will start Mandarin as he enters Secondary School next year and I am very pleases about it.

  25. “There’s always one smart ars.”

    Thankyou Simon, that is generous.

    I’m sure there is nothing Anthony would like to do more than set up an online chat-forum.

    Meanwhile I shall just have to continue to discuss footy and pups here.

  26. Colin,

    The FTT was a pointless beast after all the previous backtracking. An estimated income of £3.5bn a year across the entire EU financial system is utterly useless in every respect.

    How much of that would be lost in administration costs alone?

  27. turk

    “EM rather poor rating with the general public is entirely the fault of Labour HQ keeping him wrapped in cotton wool and not over exposing him to public view.”

    I hadn’t realised that: where did you find it out and do they need extra for his nose?

    I s’pose its just possible he IS allowed out sometimes but its not reported by the media.

  28. @Paul

    The footy I find painfully uninteresting, but without your pup updates (pupdates?) my days would be far less enjoyable.

    In terms of the polls, UKIP seem to be heading back down to 4-5% at the GE ;)

  29. If only the unions voted for David M along with everyone else, 2015 would be all sewn up already.

  30. Jim Jam – well Peter wrote his own piece, while I gave Roland some quotes for his piece (so I’m not quite sure what the Times shows me saying, though Peter assures me I said very sensible things!)

    Simon – I used to have open threads now and again for people to let off steam. I don’t think they ever really worked – people just got into bad habits on them.

  31. “If only the unions voted for David M along with everyone else, 2015 would be all sewn up already.”

    Well, the Lib Dem 2010 voters would be voting Green for starters, since DM supported the Iraq War and signed off on the ‘enhanced interrogation’ of UK nationals by US intelligence…

  32. COLIN
    Oh, I see. A matter of wording. The Chinese government will not involve itself in the commercial development. It will not, pace R.Huckle, rule the world from the former Albert Dock – though l’ll grant him its potential for the plot and setting for next Bond film.

  33. Surely the issue with Miliband is whether his popularity or lack of it scares people off voting Labour.

    I’m not sure if much polling was done on Kinnock to the same level questions are asked today. I stand to be corrected, but 1992 felt like it was Kinnock’s popularity that lost it in some shape or form because he seemed to have the Labour Party under his control so did represent Labour.

    But I don’t know whether this unpopularity was due to people scared of him being too left wing or offering too big a change to society or because they didn’t feel he was competent.

    Not really easy to frame a question that would have any meaning but something along the lines of ‘would you be worried if Miliband became MP’ as opposed to just does he look Prime Ministerial or what do you think of the job he is doing.

    I don’t get the feeling people fear Miliband especially- they might think they are people better than him but I’m not sure people will be going into the polling booths thinking “I just can’t vote for this man because the economy might collapse”.

  34. DAN THE MAN
    You clearly did not read Crossbat11’s moving piece on walking the cold winter streets on a Saturday afternoon unable to remain caged in the house waiting for another Aston Villa survival. This paradigm of the long interregnum while the tory boys play pass-the-ball and Ed doggedly stays in his own half, with no signs of any constructing movement, let along down the left flank, is the language of frustrated voting intention to those of us up on the popular side. You’ld better watch yourself, mate. Wot breed are those pups of yours, Paul?

  35. d t m

    “Well the current policy on comments is not followed if Anthony is happy with that fine”

    “There are plenty of footy sites out there to discuss footy issues, here is not the place.”

    I need to be sure which of the above it right dan: is it what Anthony is happy with or what you are happy with that I need to worry about ?

    Thankyou.

  36. Shevii – good distinction.

    DC is clearly ahead of his party in polls whilst EM is behind but how much more do those preferring DC think of him, not that much perhaps amongst key swing voters in the centre.

    My hunch is that EM may cost of a few votes but the second question is would anyone else available do any better (or have done)? We will never know but I am with Alex – I think the press would have got in to DM re rendition and other stuff and whilst his higher profile would most likely have helped VI in the first year or 2 by now the question being asked would be ‘Can Labour win with DM?’

    Apologies for repeating that imo an OM was never on for 2015 for Labour given the mountain to climb, only the perceived incompetence of the Coalition at times including 2012 omnishambles budget made it seem possible.

  37. John,

    ” though l’ll grant him its potential for the plot and setting for next Bond film.”

    No with the cash Skyfall raked in from China it wouldn’t be!

    (For some reason that came out like Yoda!)

    Peter.

  38. JP

    “Wot breed are those pups of yours, Paul?”

    Not sure I should answer till here back from oe Dan.

    Still, bugger it, I will: Rosie is a black and tan border terrier, 16 months, utterly beautifu. Daisie is a Schnoodle [3/4 mini schnauzer/1/4 mini poodle, very cute, very noisy.

    CL1945

    “sun on the beach”

    I wondered where it had got to.

  39. @Alex Harvey – “DM… signed off on the ‘enhanced interrogation’”

    Is that a fact?

    Most foreign policy experts agree that the transition to Gordon Brown as PM and David Miliband at the FO signalled a clear break with Bush era methods – it was reported as “opening a rift with the Bush administration” – admittedly he was faced with backlog of legal claims relating to cases dating back to a 2002 or thereabouts. The UK was aware of the problem and issued revised guidance when Jack Straw was at the FO.

  40. It would be surprising, given EM’s academic background, experience in government, and close association with the Unions and their think tanks, if he is not – given the 4 year sabbatical the 2010 handed him – learning how to do the job. He will, I judge, have the best researched and grounded understanding of the economic and political climate of Britain, of any Labour PM, perhaps since Attlee. Those on this blog who expect an array of policy statements at this stage of the electoral cycle, both misunderstand policy making and misjudge the capability EM is like to show of getting it right and doing it at the right time.

  41. On Ed Milliband, I am not a huge fan and even if it is no doubt unfair I just can’t see him without thinking “More Cheese Grommet”.

    However I think the leadership ratings don’t currently have the resonance that they normally would.

    Firstly mid term leader ratings aren’t that important. They can become a factor if they become part of a wider narrative but to do that there has to be a link between the personality and the problem.

    In that respect it is far harder for a PM who is identified with fixing, or not, every problem.

    Right now it is as has been the case since the crash, “the Economy Stupid” and a focus on that is overshadowing everything. In one respect that gives Ed an easier ride in that he can sit in the shadows and watch the world throw bricks at Cameron but it also keeps him out of the spotlight.

    I think it is less being kept out of harms way that not being able to get noticed.
    With the Economy front and centre we have had more a battle of the Chancellors over the last few years.

    It’s more a question for Anthony who I am loathed to suggest goes rooting through his filling cabinets, but I’d be curious to know if there is any polling on the salience of the leader to voting choice in general and more specifically if it changes over the parliamentary cycle.

    It seems fairly logical that who would be the best PM come to the fore as the election approaches but I’d like to see it quantified.

    What I can say from 2011 in Scotland is that when you have what is seen as the best leader and the best party you can win big.

    Peter.

  42. “@Alex Harvey – “DM… signed off on the ‘enhanced interrogation’”
    Is that a fact?”

    I recall it broke in the Paper That We Do Not Mention.

    I found it: I think I overegged the man’s guilt, for which I apologise: http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2010/sep/21/mi6-consulted-david-miliband-interrogations

  43. @AW
    Sorry to quote from the “other site” on here, but there you’re quoted there as saying in the “Times”:

    “Anthony Wells, of YouGov, said that the discrepancy between Mr Miliband being viewed as a better leader while appearing to trail Mr Brown in many respects could be explained by the timing of the previous questions. Voters, particularly those who had just backed Labour in May 2010, were likely to be better disposed towards Mr Brown in the aftermath of his defeat than when they looked back now…..the answer to a direct comparison showed that voters “clearly connect better to Ed Miliband than Gordon Brown”

    That makes some sense. I still recall the live coverage of Brown leaving Downing Street with his family. It was difficult not to be moved by that dignified exit.

    As for the poll, focused solely on the Labour leader, it adds weight to the idea that this part of the Murdoch Empire is out to get Miliband for very obvious reasons. The polling data doesn’t even support the headlines – a net 15% say Miliband is a better leader than Brown was.

  44. Phil – actually a lot of the responses were probably before Brown had left Downing Street! We put the poll into field on the day after the election and tried to get responses as quickly as humanly possible so we had fresh recalled vote and party ID data for future weighting. The long fieldwork period is because we also left it open for a very long time for stragglers.

  45. Anthony,

    Did you also do a “refresher” poll for Scotland in 2011.

    Equally if you do it regularly then in theory you are developing a very large database that will let you track and analysis voter preferences over time and between elections (including different types) and to cross reference them with issues.

    The results of that deeper work will be worth a bob or two?

    Peter.

  46. Steve

    if Milliband becomes PM it will be by default, rather than talent or engagement with the public… his personal ratings are pretty poor by anyone’s standards.
    ——–
    So no change from Cameron then!
    ————————————————-

    Or Thatcher.

    I’m sure I’ve bored everyone to tears by pointing out the following fact at length and regularly, but it appears that many have not yet absorbed it into their psyche.

    EM’s personal standing vis-a-vis the PM is far better than Thatcher’s was on polling day in 1979.

  47. chrisL1945

    “PAUL: you seem a habby bunny this half term afternoon.”

    Which paul and what is one of them?

    As an aside re “stuff” not about polls, I find the odd asides – such as cross Batty’s genuinely moving story of his Grandad at the Villa match, many years ago – give me a better insight into who I am discussing things with – in the same way, I s’pose – as my puppy tales demonstrate wot a lovely bloke I am, and so on.

  48. @ Dan,

    “I do think the Labour lead is at risk of falling, it can’t really get any worse of NC and DC, and ED is not seen as PM material in the polls”

    Oh, certainly it will fall. I don’t think anyone here (maybe Ann?) believes Labour are going to top 40% at the general election, or that the Tories will be below 30%. The question is, will it fall enough to keep Ed Miliband out of Number 10? Remember, the Tories need a lead of more than 3% even to have a shot at coalition.

    @ Shev II,

    “I stand to be corrected, but 1992 felt like it was Kinnock’s popularity that lost it in some shape or form because he seemed to have the Labour Party under his control so did represent Labour.”

    I think there was also a problem with Labour as a whole not looking like a party of government since Kinnock had spent the past nine years struggling to get control of it. He was tainted by association. Coming out of thirteen years of what is in retrospect beginning to look like a relatively functional government, Miliband is in a much better position.

    He has plenty of ~other~ problems- his television interviews are consistently disastrous, he has an odd looking face, Labour are still losing the argument on the economy- but going into an election with the least toxic brand on the market is a huge advantage.

    Re. comment policy and footy- I’ve tried scrolling and recommend it highly. Although of course one would hate to miss the daily polling forecast from the puppoes.

  49. Kinnock blew it in Sheffield.

  50. Steve2 – do you have polling evidence for this assertion?

    Not polls before and after rally but evidence that the rally caused the change?

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