Following the very peculiar ComRes poll for Open Europe there is a more normal one out tonight – their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 30%(-2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+4).

This is the first ComRes telephone poll since the local elections and shows the same trend we’ve seen from other companies – a big boost for UKIP at the expense of the main two parties.


255 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. Anything with Freema Agyeman in is worth watching!

  2. Hope AW does a piece on today’s Times YouGov Poll on attitudes to EM.

    Fascinating.

  3. As I keep saying to anyone who will listen, Ed Miliband is a good public speaker and those that write him off for a lack of charisma need to take note of the fact that during the local elections he wasn’t out making grand policy pronouncements, he was travelling round the country, standing on a pallet and getting a very positive response.

    Correspondingly, their vote went up significantly. They gained 291 seats, including places like Witney, and despite the absence of media attention had a solidly successful day.

    People appreciate when a leader is willing to come out and speak to them far more than any number of tweets. I fully expect, on this basis and on that of all the polling so far, that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister in 2015.

  4. Over 60s at 39/29/6/20 this morning !! ??

  5. The Bow Group (oldest Tory think-tank: John Major, president; Howe/Howard/Hesletine/Lamont, senior patrons) and Conservative Grassroots have announced a summit meeting next month to discuss 2015 tactics with UKIP and “a possible Conservative/UKIP electoral pact”.

  6. RICHARD………….You might be interested in a Chinese led development contract, signed yesterday, and flagged up by Boris, in the Royal Albert Dock. A billion pound investment to create a 35 acre business park, bringing 20,000 new jobs, £23million pa, business rates, and £6billion pa for the UK economy.
    A Chinese business delegation, including the lead developer, ABP (China), described the deal as, ‘creating a 24hr mini-city so that Asian businesses can work on Beijing time, a gateway for Chinese and Asian businesses to set up their European HQ’s. The Chinese Ambassador, and representatives of 20 Chinese banks were at the signing.
    The Royal Albert Dock is in an Enterprise zone, next to City Airport and the new Crossrail station, completing in 2018. Good news

  7. Looking at todays Sun YG poll, I think this is much more in line with the actual current position in the country.

    My gut feeling is that Labour enjoy a lead over the Tories of between 5 to 8%.

    This is not enough for Labour to maintain this lead and win in 2015. It is too early to make any prediction about what will happen in 2015, based on current polling. At the moment Electoral Calculus are showing an 87% probability of a Labour majority, with only a 2% probability of a Tory majority. Much depends on what happens with UKIP and Lib Dem voters.

  8. R HUCKLE

    Just plugged some realistic-sounding results (LAB 35.9, CON 32.4, LD 12.5, UKIP 13.2) into Electoral Calculus and that gives a Labour majority. For Labour to lose, they have to do worse than the Conservatives, which is looking like a pretty tall order.

  9. @ Ken

    I have a feeling that by 2030, the Chinese will be running the world from Beijing. Westminster and Brussels will both be answering to the Chinese Government.

  10. @CHRISLANE1945

    Did you read the interesting article by Brian Gould?http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/29/labour-break-economic-orthodoxy-tories

    I hope EdM follows this route.

  11. @mrnameless

    Yes the Tories would need to be several points ahead of Labour to win a 2015 election, but this cannot be totally ruled out. IF the UK economy recovers and UKIP flirting Tories return, then the Tories can win a small majority. You have to remember that there are dozens of seats with very small majorities and these are difficult to predict. As I said, much depends on what happens with UKIP and Lib Dem votes.

  12. @Ken

    In that case shouldn’t Gove make teaching Mandarin in all schools a priority so our worker’s benefit from this investment?

  13. @R.Huckle

    I think it was Dawkins, in response to a similar comment about gut feelings, who said “I don’t think with my guts”.

  14. @LizH

    Gove didn’t learn Mandarin at school, so our kids won’t be learning it now.

  15. The Bow Group (oldest Tory think-tank: John Major, president; Howe/Howard/Hesletine/Lamont, senior patrons) and Conservative Grassroots have announced a summit meeting next month to discuss 2015 tactics with UKIP and “a possible Conservative/UKIP electoral pact”.

    -Will be interesting to see how the Tories defend reintroduction of smoking in public buildings and a further average £200,000 tax cut for millionaires while increasing taxes on OAP’s with an income of £250 a week.

    After all Ethics is just a county East of London
    and needs must!

  16. @Chris Riley

    I already got into trouble this morning so I better be careful what I say.

  17. “@ernie

    @R.Huckle

    I think it was Dawkins, in response to a similar comment about gut feelings, who said “I don’t think with my guts”. ”

    I think the 2015 GE will be very difficult to call right up to polling night. So this far out, my gut is as good as any current analysis.

  18. @ MrNameless… if Milliband becomes PM it will be by default, rather than talent or engagement with the public… his personal ratings are pretty poor by anyone’s standards.

    If there was polling by constituency, then you might be able to quality control these polls and get a more realistic sense of what these headline figures might actually deliver.

    @Ken, Chinese involvement in our economy is not particularly good news for Tibetans…
    China will not be “running the world by 2030”, they have enough trouble managing their own country… a country that is teetering on the edge of a famine and pollution disaster that would eclipse anything you might have seen on the telly going on in Africa. There are a heap of alarming economic trends going on inside the country that also do not bode well for Sinophiles eager to see the sleeping dragon awake.

  19. if Milliband becomes PM it will be by default, rather than talent or engagement with the public… his personal ratings are pretty poor by anyone’s standards.

    ——–
    So no change from Cameron then!

  20. Oops I see I used a grocer’s apostrophe in one of my posts.

  21. Seal pup,

    China isn’t teetering on the edge of famine because they can afford to buy as much food as they need.

    What that does to world food prices and the cost of our groceries is another question but it won’t be the Chinese who go hungry first.

    Peter.

  22. R HUCKLE…………In mentioning decisions made on, ‘gut feeling’ or ‘instinct’ one is immediately heaped with opprobrium on here. I often resorted to both Okkams razor and Gordeon knot solutions in my business career, although we engaged the services of analysts and economists, they were used simply to provide, often conflicting, opinions, when decisions were made they were made by me, with their contributions noted for professional reasons….in other words, BS baffles brains.
    I rather enjoy the company of Chinese people, the majority of our clients were from the Orient and therefore we got to know them as friends, they will never build Empires, they don’t want to, but, naturally, they are very active in securing their interests, we helped them with their money management and found them highly engaging.

  23. LIZH………Don’t worry about learning Mandarin, Chinese children are learning English, they admire us for our enduring spirit and feel obliged to speak our language, the language of course, of business, even the French are being converted, there are 600,000 of them in London.

  24. @Ken

    Me too, I often had to make “gut feeling” decisions while in business as often speedy decisions are necessary. It worked for both of us most of the time i suspect.

  25. SEAL PUP…………..I have been a regular visitor to China, and have seen at first hand the massive challenges that they face as a result of their industrial growth, they aren’t fools, they are dealing with these challenges as a priority, however, they don’t have the philosophical approach of the West, you have to get to know them to understand them. Of course they make mistakes, those mistakes create opportunities for us, we can export our knowledge of environmental and other salient issues, they welcome us.

  26. @STEVE – “Ethics is just a county East of London”

    And Tilty, Tolleshunt Knights, Snoreham, Sheering, Margaretting, Mucking, Helions Bumpstead, Great Henny, Foulness, Fobbing, Feering, Chignall Smealy, Buttsbury, Boreham, Bocking and Birchanger-Barling are the towns and villiages therein.

  27. Ken,

    As ever you make reference to your success as evidence of your supposed wisdom. However both both Okkams razor and Gordeon knot solutions are far from ‘gut feelings’ they are systematic approaches to problem solving.

    Ockams razor is evidence based far from gut being defined as;

    “Ockam’s razor is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in logic and problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.”

    Equally cutting the Gordeon Knot is about calculating when to cut your losses as the effort to unravel a problem is more than the benefit.

    Far from gut feeling both of these are actually logical evidence based alternatives to it.

    I know you like coming on here and telling us how clever you are but quoting two methods of problem solving that you use that contradict your argument isn’t the way to prove it.

    Peter.

  28. Hello everyone,

    Isn’t this site supposed to be a discussion about Polls and Polling.
    You seem to all drift off into various strange discussions and topics.
    Odd!

  29. THE OTHER HOWARD……..I get the feeling ;-) that some people posting here are not business decision makers, perhaps their limit is deciding when to hand in an essay on how unfair everything is.

  30. R HUCKLE
    “I have a feeling that by 2030, the Chinese will be running the world from Beijing. Westminster and Brussels will both be answering to the Chinese Government.”
    Take a look at Hong Kong (or Bangkok or Singapore, come to that), if you wish genuinely to see whether the Chinese government would involve itself in a commercial development of an Asian and ChineseEU oriented centre in London. There would be no benefit for them in doing so and no logistical basis for it – it would not be manageable.
    On learning Mandarin, there will be some better options for young Brits, both in China and in, for example, Vientiane, where Soochow University are just starting a Laos campus, offering Business and Social Science Degrees with Mandarin teaching; lot of fun on the way to a thriving business career.
    Seal Pup: “sleeping” dragon? Blimey, what will happen when it wakes?

  31. “I get the feeling ;-) that some people posting here are not business decision makers, perhaps their limit is deciding when to hand in an essay on how unfair everything is.”

    That comment makes me recall the words of Kryten – “I’m almost annoyed!”

  32. PETERCAIRNS…………I don’t agree with you, I think perhaps you tend to over analyse………it can be confusing.

  33. Ken,

    “business decision makers”.

    Why use an argument when a cliché will do.

    True the biggest business decisions I ever had to make was interviewing fund managers for the Highland Councils £1bn pension fund.

    What I looked for were people who could clearly explain their philosophy and methodology, so that I was clear what. I was getting, what they would do and how they would do it.

    Anyone who talked about like you do was filtered out very early on. I wouldn’t trust £100m portion of a pension fund to someone who said;

    “engaged the services of analysts and economists, they were used simply to provide, often conflicting, opinions, when decisions were made they were made by me, with their contributions noted for professional reasons”

    You remind me more and more of Sir Alan Sugar on the Apprentice.

    Every episode he dishes out his Wisdom on the failed candidates based on his years of experience, but of course he only does it after he knows the result.

    Equally although I only watch it for the comedy value it only takes a couple of episodes to realise that this weeks “Wisdom” is the opposite of what he said a few weeks back .

    Peter.

  34. PETERCAIRNS…………May I quote Louis Zukofsky……….

    Had he asked me to say Kadish
    I believe I would have said it for him.
    How fathom his will
    Who had taught himself to be simple.
    Everything should be as simple as it can be,
    Says Einstein,
    But not simpler.

    Incidentally, how’s the Highland Councils pension fund ?

  35. Fascinating shift of emphasis in the EU Commission on fiscal matters.

    Trying desperately to speed up recovery, they have given France, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, POrtugal & Slovenia two more years to meet deficit targets ( the Osborne Plan!).

    But there is a quid pro quo-they must make efforts to lighten labour regulations, deregilate services & revamp social spending. Barroso is tough on France :-” Our message to France is very demanding. This extra time should be used wisely to address France’s failing competitiveness. We need reform & reform now.”

    He tells France to tackle it’s pension system, it’s labour laws & it’s tax system.

    Mr H not happy-” The commission is not entitled to dictate what we have to do-On structural reforms it is up to us & us alone to say what is the right path”

    The tension between the grand vision of EU wide monetary union , fiscal probity & economic convergence on the one hand; and good old fashioned national sovereignty is palpable.

    All of this plays to DC’s Bloomberg speech principles & objectives.

    Meanwhile growth in UK this year is forecast by OECD to be greater than in Germany, with France in recession.

    OECD chief Padoan said ” Europe is in a dire situation” & calls for a major ECB programme of QE.

  36. @Ken
    “Don’t worry about learning Mandarin, Chinese children are learning English, they admire us for our enduring spirit and feel obliged to speak our language”

    As a businessperson I would prefer to know both the languages so that I am sure they are not pulling the wool over my eyes.

    Businesses prefer to hire people who can speak the language of their trading partners and not teaching Mandarin for instance would mean that more Chinese people will be brought in because our workers will not be qualified for those jobs.

    Not having the right skills in the UK means we have to import labour or outsource work which results in unemployment in the UK. Isn’t that what happened in IT for instance because of short sightedness of businesses and failure of our education system to be forward looking instead of harping about the past.

  37. Ken,

    No idea how the Pension fund is doing, not my job anymore?

    As to your quote by Louis Zukofsky, as one of my lectures once cutting told my tutorial group;

    “Quoting the great thinkers in an argument doesn’t make you one, quoting them instead of an argument proves it!”

    Peter.

  38. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”There would be no benefit for them in doing so and no logistical basis for it – it would not be manageable.”

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/uk-abp-londondocks-idUKBRE94S0W620130529

    So Reuters is wrong to report this is it?

    RE this quote :-“ABP’s Chairman Xu Weiping told Reuters. It hopes to sell 70 percent of the space to Asian firms, as Chinese companies prefer to own rather than rent their offices, he said.”

    …..is it in error?

    ….wasn’t this said ?

    …does the Chairman of ABP not understand what he is doing?

    Or could it be that you don’t know what you are talking about ?

  39. Looks great Ken-Canary Wharf 2?

    By the way-what happened with The Shard?-looks like a white elephant?

  40. PETERCAIRNS……….That looks like a quote to me..you share my joy.

  41. @R Huckle
    ‘This is not enough for Labour to maintain this lead and win in 2015. ‘

    You may be right, but it is ,perhaps woth pointing out that Labour has a bigger lead at present than it enjoyed 3 years into the 1970 – 74 parliament . The Tory lead in Autumn 1977 – 3 years into the 74 – 79 parliament was also smaller.

  42. @Colin
    “But there is a quid pro quo-they must make efforts to lighten labour regulations, deregilate services & revamp social spending.”

    That’s hardly a left wing agenda is it? I don’t know what puzzles me more – why there’s so little hostility towards the EU from the left in the UK, or why there’s so much from the political right.

    The pivotal moment in Labour’s previous change in stance towards the EU is generally held to be Jacque Delors’ address to the TUC Conference over two decades ago. Perhaps Baroso should now be given a similar invitation with the aim of prompting another U-turn.

  43. COLIN……………The Standard called it, ‘ City 3 ‘ last night. The Shard is being fitted out, Southwark residents are being prioritised during the initial recruitment phase, so I have been involved in getting my group of young people engaged, there are over 1500 jobs on offer, from maintenance and security to hospitality and admin. It’s looking impressive, the whole area, called, London Bridge Quarter, is booming.

  44. LIZH……….Our people spoke mainly Cantonese, however, we had two Mandarin speakers, various dialects, during my final couple of years. I take your point about learning the language, but we found Hong Kong educated expat Brits to be the best option, UK students would need to spend time in China to understand enough to help in business communication.

  45. PHIL HAINES

    @”That’s hardly a left wing agenda is it? I don’t know what puzzles me more – why there’s so little hostility towards the EU from the left in the UK, or why there’s so much from the political right.”

    It isn’t-but you see the vestiges of dirigisme in Hollande’s response.
    Elsewhere, even the Commission seems to be abandoning it. But it is a strange spectacle -central directives to member states on how to become competitive……with one another.

    re reaction from the UK right-DC really needs to be explaining to his troops how these shifts of emphasis in EU mirror his Bloomberg Speech approach. The tide is flowing his way-if only the backwoodsmen would pause & think about it.
    Of course if you just want Out-none of this is relevant.

    re reaction from the left-it is epitomised in the NS article by Rafael Behr today-mere political shenanigens & no sign of strategic thinking whatsoever.

  46. KEN

    That’s good news-I was beginning to get the impression that it might have been built in the wrong place.

  47. Ken,

    It was a direct quote from my lecturer but unlike yours it was relevant in that it contributed to the argument rather than obscured it.

    There is nothing wrong with a quote if it takes the discussion forward.

    My contention is and has been from the star my disregard for your line of reasoning that amounts for little more than;

    ” I’ve always been successful therefore I must always be right”.

    I prefer people to explain how and why they do things and why they work as opposed to “They do because they do”.

    I don’t make any great claims for any wealth of experience but by an large I find people who can’t clearly articulate why they do things usually don’t know themselves.

    It’s a bit like those in the States who attacked Nate Silver because they had a “gut feel” for it, it didn’t fit with what they were hearing, or you can make statistics say anything. He wiped the floor with all of them, because he understood what he was doing and could prove it and that left all the “I’ve been doing this for years and have a feel for it” brigade in his wake.

    Peter.

  48. COLIN………….Try…..www.the-shard.com

  49. PETERCAIRNS…………I recognise a pattern here, you are of an analytical bent, I’m a gut feeling person, never the t’wain shall meet. We have a divergence of views.

  50. KEN

    I guess the Qataris are in no hurry.

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