Following the very peculiar ComRes poll for Open Europe there is a more normal one out tonight – their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 30%(-2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+4).

This is the first ComRes telephone poll since the local elections and shows the same trend we’ve seen from other companies – a big boost for UKIP at the expense of the main two parties.


255 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. IANANTHONYJAMES……………No it’s not.

  2. @IanAnthonyJames

    There are still two powerful unions – the BMA and the RMT.

  3. I’m with Ken on this one.

    No poll’s tonight. Arrggghhh

  4. RAF –

    Good point and look at the results they get for their members.

    Ken – great debating there. You have convinced me and I’ll be out campaigning for the Tories and cheering on Murdoch and Dacre now……

  5. IANANTHONYJAMES…………Quite.

  6. IAJ

    Ole Ken doesn’t usually stretch to THREE words in a debate so count yourself lucky.

  7. PAULCROFT………..Wot debate, did you read the contribution to the great debate by IAJ, a sentence. Typical from the conditioned Left, perspective.

  8. Conditioned Left that’s a new one on me Ken.

    I guess we are all symptoms of our conditioning. left, right and (I was going to say LDs but already covered – sorry could not resist).

  9. JIM JAM……….I meant, of course,’ air conditioned lift’. ;-)

  10. Bloody iphone.

  11. For all people on the left attack “Thatchers Anti-Union Legislation”, which by the way I am no fan of, what really did for Union membership in the 70’s through to after 2000 was change.

    Rising standards of living and house prices and ownership along easy credit high employment levels and technological change, all made people believe rightly or wrongly that they didn’t need a Union.

    One of Thatchers great successes was to get more credit for those changes than the Tories deserved and to put more blame than deserved for the problems before on the Unions and Labour.

    Now that with the recession people feel that many of those beneficial changes are being reversed they are looking more favourably on the Unions.

    Peter.

  12. Well I would say that without unions you can’t have fair and effective free markets as Adam Smith observed, there is a disparity of pricing information between the unorganized workers and the organized bosses, unions help balance that up so that workers can get the real market rate for their work

  13. @Amber, Roger Mexico

    Thank you, clever people. I was going cross eyed trying to understand the ComRes tables.

    I quite like the idea that LibDem voters are suffering from “false memory syndrome”, but I prefer the idea that they are too embarassed to admit it because this ties in with the fact that ComRes is a telephone poll. After all, we all do things on-line that we wouldn’t do face to face – I’m sometimes quite reasonable on-line, for example.

  14. ken

    I did read IAJ’s contribution and it didn’t take long as you say. I was surprised [and quietly imressed] that you stretched out your riposte beyond the call of duty and your usual two word reply, so well done on that.

    Nice applause fo Ashley Cole I thunk.

  15. This could be interesting!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-22711395

    Nick Hancock won well in 2010.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/portsmouthsouth/

    Wonder how UKIP might fair in a by election?

    Oh and before Anthony does I would remind everyone that we can and should talk about a potential by election without reference to any allegations or court proceedings.

    Innocent till proven guilty.

    Peter

  16. Whoops it is of course Mike Hancook.

    Nick Hancook should probably be arrested for his jokes but as far as I know hasn’t yet, but we live in hope!!!

    Peter.

  17. PAULCROFT…………A few Chelski lads out there tonite, bit of an anti-climax really, now they’re all off to Brazil, Ooooher missus.

  18. Rising standards of living and house prices and ownership along easy credit high employment levels and technological change, all made people believe rightly or wrongly that they didn’t need a Union.


    Odd that as in G

  19. In his book, I think it’s John O’Farrell who makes the claim that legislation like the minimum wage and employment rights (domestic and European legislation) made a lot of people feel as though they no longer needed to be a part of a union.

    Of course, that has the problem that once a government willing to enact those laws goes away, the workers are left out in the cold.

    You can either have a unionised workforce, or you can have stringent government regulation of competition and wages. Without those, there will inevitably be exploitative behaviour.

    In other news, I joined the Labour Party yesterday. I was already a Fabian, so I thought I might as well take the leap. Only costs me £1 a year!

  20. Rising standards of living and house prices and ownership along easy credit high employment levels and technological change, all made people believe rightly or wrongly that they didn’t need a Union.


    Odd that as in Germany Union membership has risen over the same period

  21. Steve,

    In Germany the political narrative has long been that Unions were part of the solution and that perception persists. In the UK the public bought a different narrative and once a perception is established it is hard to change.

    Peter.

  22. MRNAMELESS………Good career move, if you get to the top you’ll be able to start an illegal war, massacre innocent civilians, and walk away a multi-millionaire, and all for £1pa, congratulations.

  23. Or found the NHS and make massive advancements in social equality for women, gay people and the working classes. I’m not of a Blairite tendency.

  24. I think Ken’s comment should be removed, calling Tony Blair a murderer is not in the spirit of bipartisanship.

    You can disagree with the war in Iraq, but accusing a politician of “massacring innocent civilians” is just not on.

  25. Mrnameless

    It’s funny as I genuinely was considering joining Labour the other day, I was on the website reading all the “Why I’m Labour” and was strongly considering it. I really am edging closer to them more and more.

    Then the Terror attack in Woolwich happened the next day and it reminded me about Labour’s fundamental imo flaw, their immigration policy.

    But yes it did hit me that actually, Labour with a better policy on immigration would be the ideal party for me.

  26. MIM………..I’m telling the truth.

  27. @Lazlo

    You said – many of these things are being done

    I looked at the website for one of the China development agencies

    http://www.chengduhitech.co.uk/Trends/News.asp

    Look at the massive investment they are getting, they are signing up huge investments many times a month.

    I looked at their policies

    http://www.chengduhitech.co.uk/Guide/Government_Policies.asp

    I then went to the website for the UK department of business. I can’t find any recent stories about any companies locating to the UK on their site.

    And when you look at the policies in comparison to the Chinese ones you can see why

    https://www.gov.uk/government/topics/economic-growth

    The world has changed. Companies now expect governments to chase them for investment, to offer generous packages for that investment. We are not competitive with those policies anymore and the Chinese for one are taking over our industries.

    The party that gets that message and acts on it and turns us into the next China or Ireland will win the next election.

  28. MITM

    I don’t have a problem with their immigration policy so that wasn’t an issue to me, but what it might be worth asking yourself is whether a policy on immigration with which you may disagree outweighs their views on other things that may matter more.

  29. MTM,

    Given that both suspects were born here and at least one was brought up as a Christian, what has the murder got to do with immigration policy?

    Peter.

  30. Oh Peter

    You can say the same old lines as much as you want, but even you must acknowledge that people are waking up on the immigration issue. Before it was taboo, now it’s being discussed openly, and more and more people are in support of limiting immigration, we have a government that is at least committed to reducing the number, you can’t deny this issue any longer. I know you will try, but ultimately, you will fail

  31. @ Postage Included

    I’m sometimes quite reasonable on-line, for example.
    —————
    ROFLOL :-)

  32. I would always find it difficult joining a Labour party that didn’t share my views on improving the electoral system and on the fact that one cannot place a price tag on a country’s civil liberties. I think that those are issues EM needs to be careful on if he wants to take liberal-left voters like myself for granted at the next election. That said, I’m probably not very representative so my opinion is highly unlikely to matter a great deal.

  33. MTM,

    No even a poor attempt at an answer, but I’ll give you another chance to spell it out;

    “What has the Woolwich murder to do with immigration”

    If waking up to “the immigration issue” is branding thousands of innocent British citizens because of two madmen then we are waking up to a nightmare.

    Peter.

  34. I wonder what the likely swing back from this mid-term poll towards the Government will be.
    Miliband is unpopular [] and [many people think] he’s a weak leader, and that Ed Balls and Gordon Brown ran the economy into the ground.
    I predict a narrow Con victory of about 11-15 seats or one with enough seats to lead some form of Government.
    The LDs will retain about 35-45 seats but with only about 13-14% of the vote.
    Labour will gain about 5 seats net
    and the SNP will gain no seats.
    (These are most likely forecasts – Labour could win overall).

    On the attack in Woolwich, we must not let it divide us. I am proud to live in an international country.
    I favour our existing laws being enforced – so those who preach hate or call for killings/beheadings are prosecuted as inciting murder. Perhaps it could also be suggested to those who don’t like it here – even if born here – should leave (unless they have committed a serious crime, in which case they should be dealt with here).
    It is a difficult area, because other Muslims are the backbone of this country and want nothing to do with these people.

  35. @ Joe James B

    It is not very democratic that you want to deport most of UKIP’s supporters – or did I misunderstand something in your post?

  36. @ Man in the Middle

    Goethe: if it wasn’t so tiresome to think, many more would do.

  37. @Joe James B
    In a recent discussion on “10 O’Clock Live” Toby Young put a case very similar to yours to Ken Livingstone: ie Miliband and Labour generally were rubbish and it was just obvious that the Tories would win in 2015. Ken reponsded by stretching out his hand to the young man and saying “£100 that Miliband will be PM in 2015”.

    Toby Young hesitated and said “Do you mean an overall majority?” To which Ken responded “either way”.

    Obviously Toby, a real Cameron fan though he is, was calculating the odds thus: a worse than evens chance of an overall Labour majority; a better than evens chance of a Labour Government of some sort (including minority or coalition). He had to take the bet regardless of course., but the hesitation was telling, and the grin on Ken’s face as they shook hands was a picture.

  38. And BTW.

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 29th May – CON 30%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%; APP -36

  39. Good Morning All.
    JOE JAMES B: It has been my view for some time that the poll lead for Labour is not secure, but I think it is unlikely that the tories will be far enough ahead to form their own administration. Therefore I would be expecting a Lab-Lib deal.

  40. Dear me ChrisLane…I am amazed you think there would be any “Lib” part of the equation to deal with. Surely even 1 MP is a tad too high under your repeated analysis? Or are you prepared to consider Orkney & Shetland a LD gimme?

  41. @ Postage

    And Ken could always hedge the bet with the bookies and make a profit either way :-)

  42. What do people mean when they say EM or DC isn’t a strong leader?

    In the case above I suspect they just mean he’s not the leader of my team.

    In EM’s case I think he has managed to hold together a party that is still suffering internal divisions (although to be fair more at a senior rather than a CLP level). He’s avoided any obvious traps, which is one of the main goals of opposition. He also seems to be developing his own leadership style more successfully than (for example) Howard and IDS managed.

    These all seem to indicate that, so far, he has been an effective leader of the LP. Is that the same as strong, or is there some other elusive quality that counts?

    So for our recent leaders:
    GB – strong, divisive, ineffective
    TB – strong, effective
    JS – sadly we’ll never know as he didn’t really have enough time

  43. GRHNHPORTS.
    Good Morning to you, and to LIZ H. (Poole 10k on Sunday)

    Ten Lib Dems might make the difference. The Callaghan-Steel alliance nearly saved the country. One of the great ‘If only’ questions .

  44. THE SHEEP.
    Thank you for your fine post, fully agreed.

  45. @CHRISLANE1945

    Good morning to you too. Looks like I have made a bad start with my reply to Joe James B which has gone into moderation.

    Good luck with the 10K but I am sure it will be a breeze for you. I started training yesterday for a 7K road & track fun run which includes a 150m ascent which was scheduled for the 22nd June and I have just found out that it has been postponed to the 7th of September.

  46. I happened to catch the Sky Press Review last night anyone know who the female journalist was who made the statement in the face of the latest You Gov Survey that Labour had and I think I’ve got this right “already written off the next election” this ludicrous assertion went without comment.

    I appreciate people are entitled to their individual opinions and these might be coloured by political affiliations but on a newspaper review show it would be nice to see newspapers reviewed regarding their actual contents.

    I was forced to turn over to repeats of Law and Order UK!

  47. @Chrislane et al
    Do you really think a LibLab deal is possible? To me it’s the least likely result, because the LDs don’t want it (and will want it even less when nearly all of their seats are marginals with the Tories).

    Recent LD pronouncements that in 2015 they’ll look to negotiate first with whichever party has most votes, rather than seats, tacitly confirms they are seeking a second LibCon coalition. Why? Look at the numbers. If Labour beat the Tories on votes even by a whisker they’ll be either a majority or so close that they won’t need Clegg. But if Labour poll fewer votes than the Tories Clegg has an excuse to linger on with Cameron – even if Labour have more seats, by claiming “it’s the votes that count”.

    The odds of a libLab government in ’15 depend on a Labour lead greater than nothing but less than 1/2%. It’s possible, but unlikely.

  48. LIZ H: I saw your response, and it has now gone.

    There was a very interesting discussion about Ed Miliband on Radio Five Live, last Sunday evening. Peter Kellner and Neil Kinnock were on.
    Ed Miliband is not a ‘modern’ personality, but very thoughtful and a man of integrity, I think.
    It will be fascinatiing to see whether a ‘lack of charisma’ tells against him in this 24 Hour media age.

  49. “The EU is taking Britain to court over immigrants’ entitlement to benefits.

    The European Commission is convinced Britain is breaking EU rules by not allowing nationals from member states the same access to benefits as UK citizens.

    Through applying an extra ‘right-to-reside’ test it is alleged that Britain could have prevented migrants working and living in the UK from claiming some benefits”
    __________

    And Europe wonders why more and more people in England are turning to UKIP?

  50. Steve,

    “I was forced to turn over to repeats of Law and Order UK!”

    It couldn’t have been that bad!

    Peter.

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