Following the very peculiar ComRes poll for Open Europe there is a more normal one out tonight – their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 30%(-2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+4).

This is the first ComRes telephone poll since the local elections and shows the same trend we’ve seen from other companies – a big boost for UKIP at the expense of the main two parties.


255 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. Headlines will be gap narrows to 4 points after labour collapse

  2. So a clear trend now which you can see clearly on this graph (ukpolling report graphs unfortunately do not have ukip plotted yet)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    UKIP is picking up from all support across all parties.

  3. It’ll be interesting to see whether YouGov continues to give Labour high figures in the 40-42% range compared to the other pollsters.

  4. Has there been an effect triggered by the death of Lady Thatcher? See http://westernindependent.blogspot.com/2013/05/opinion-polls-thatcher-effect.html

  5. still fell very strongly that the figures are incorrect due to weighting, telephone poll and if it was random and area of polling. just add 8% to ukip and you may be in right ball park

  6. Without seeing the actual details we can’t be sure, but I suspect that, rather than UKIP picking up votes from all parties, there’s instead a trend to the right across all sectors. So UKIP are picking up votes from the Tories, but the Tories and LibDems in turn are picking up votes from Labour.

  7. Nice-I like it.

  8. 4 point gap. Are you sure. someone is wrong. Polls widening, narrowing. I.m lost now. No real trend.

  9. That result,( I wouldn’t be surprised with the way people feel about the two main parties if it isn’t accurate) would give Labour a majority of 42 UKIP 0!

  10. @Simon

    ComRes were already showing a tighter gap than other pollsters.

  11. Today the earlier ComRes had Labour 37, Cons 26. Is this the same data with different weighting?

  12. Colin

    “protest marches”…..

    I don’t think you see any unless its “our” fault. Intervening, not intervening, thinking about intervening……….

  13. Headlines will read

    “Labour lead over UKIP slashed to 17%”

  14. @ Allan Christie

    Headlines will read:
    “Labour lead over UKIP slashed to 17%”
    ——————–
    Independent’s actual headline:

    “Exclusive: Tories now more divided than under John Major, voters believe”

    Sub-header:
    “Large majority think David Cameron lacks leadership skills to deliver victory at next election, survey for The Independent shows”

    Continues:
    “Most Britons believe the Conservatives are more divided today than they were under John Major, according to a poll indicating that voters are deserting the party after a series of internal rows.

    A large majority of voters think David Cameron lacks the leadership skills to deliver victory at the next election, the survey for The Independent shows.

    The scathing verdict on the health of the Tory party revealed by the ComRes survey follows a bruising fortnight for the Prime Minister in which he was hit by backbench rebellions over Europe and same-sex marriage.

    It also finds backing for the UK Independence Party has climbed to a record high, with nearly a fifth of Tory supporters at the last election saying they would switch their allegiance to Nigel Farage’s party.

    Labour support has fallen to 34 per cent, a drop of four points since last month and its lowest share of the vote since Ed Miliband was elected leader. The Conservatives are on 30 per cent (down two), Ukip on 17 per cent (up four) and the Liberal Democrats trailing with 10 per cent (up one).

    Most worryingly for Tory strategists, the notion that the party is at war with itself appears to be growing. Fifty-six per cent regard the Conservatives as more divided than during John Major’s turbulent leadership in the 1990s, with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Forty-nine per cent of Tory voters and 72 per cent of Ukip supporters see the party as more split than it was in the 1990s.

    The recent turmoil also seems to have tarnished the voters’ view of the Prime Minister’s leadership ability, with 61 per cent doubting he possesses the qualities required to win the election outright in 2015, compared with 23 per cent who believe he has the necessary skills.

    Nearly two-thirds of Tory supporters (63 per cent) still have confidence in his leadership….”

  15. AMBER STAR

    Okay I’m probably a bit premature with my headline. :)

  16. The tables are up here:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_28_May_2013.pdf

    According to those tables, 9% of Lib Dems, 8% of Labour and 16% of Conservative 2010 votes would now vote for UKIP.

    Also Of interest is the question “Q.5 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as…?

    UKIP scores the lowest here, 13% of UKIP voters see themselves as Labour, 26% see themselves and conservative, 4% Lib Dem

    So why would the vote UKIP then? I suspect a lot of tactical voting. After the local elections voters have realised if they want to displace their safe seat candidate from the party that always wins, UKIP is the party of choice to do that.

    Looking at the regional breaks seems to support that. UKIP are now the opposition of choice in the North East at the expense of the Tories, and they are also becoming the opposition of choice in the South East at the expense of Labour.

    Lib Dems used to take this role, but now only seem to be strong in the South West.

    So UKIP is the party of protest, but voters in the North are not going to suddenly turn to the Tories in 2015, because they know the Tories can’t win there; and voters in the South are not going to turn to Labour, Labour voters there are more likely to turn to UKIP to keep the Tories out.

    So I expect UKIP will remain strong right through to the 2015 elections.

    But that doesn’t mean that all of their voters really like their policies, or that there has been a swing to the right. It is just a feature of first past the post.

  17. @Amber

    After the debacle of their last poll, I’m almost as reluctant to believe ComRes as I am Nick Clegg. (AW – That’s a comment on polling. Honestly.)

    But, if we must, the message that stands out from this poll is that it’s only the split in the vote for the right wing parties that’s keeping the heat on Cameron. Behind that headline, the pool of support for two parties competing on right wing agendas has grown by 2%, while that for Labour has fallen by 4%. Con + UKIP is now 13% ahead of Lab. That hardly suggests that the left is winning the battle of ideas, however much the FPTP arithmetic may disguise the message.

  18. I just found out I’m going to be living in Mr. Clegg’s constituency come 2015. So, question – Do I campaign insanely hard for Labour in Sheffield Hallam, hoping to come from third to first, or do I take the train back from Sheffield to NW Leics. and attempt to unseat Andrew Bridgen?

  19. @Phil

    Not to mention the 10% Liberals who are in the main supporting a right-wing Orange Book version. Frankly it’s pretty deserved. For as long as the voice of the Left comes through a Blairite vehicle we’ve no hope of winning the arguments, just conforming to them.

  20. @Richard

    According to those tables, 9% of Lib Dems, 8% of Labour and 16% of Conservative 2010 votes would now vote for UKIP.

    Interesting, so now Tories make up less than half of the UKIP rise!

  21. No, the Lib Dems and Labour both took fewer votes in 2010 than the Conservatives, so 16% of the Tory vote is greater than the sum of 9% of the Lib Dem vote and 8% of the Labour vote.

  22. Fair point, but it’s significant we’re needing to weight what the proportions mean in terms of votes, when less than a few weeks ago (the last time I checked) the contrast in the proportions were so pronounced it was nearly 3/4 Tories.

  23. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 28th May – CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%; APP -34

    I must admit I find the ComRes tables pretty inscrutable, but I have a suspicion that the UKIP difference between ComRes and YouGov could originate in the different treatment of Don’t Knows/Won’t Votes. Could someone who understands the meaning of all those weightings elucidate?

  24. @Craig
    Looking at the breakdown of 2010 voters switching to UKIP in todays YouGov (25% Tories, 5% Labour, 11% LibDem) just emphasises how different a picture we’re getting from different pollsters. ComRes are picking up something, I’m sure, but the question is what?

  25. “(25% Tories, 5% Labour, 11% LibDem)”

    155.25/621 Tories, 24.9/498 Labour, 48.4 LibDem

    6:1:2

  26. *48.4/440 LibDem*

  27. @MrNameless

    Bridgen. Nick Clegg will be facing plenty of opposition already. And with a good candidate NW Leics is a target seat…

  28. More properly:

    129/515 Tories, 22/448 Labour, 39/352 Lib Dem
    (excluding wouldn’t vote/don’t know).

    Then reallocate the don’t knows pro rata and you are back at 6:1:2

  29. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 28th May – CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%; APP -34

    …. as Colin said earlier “Nice-I like it.”

    A poll a day to suit everybody – how equitable.

    Wonder if the Tories will ever hit the dizzy heights of BIG THIRTY again in any of them?

  30. I would be surprised to see Nick Clegg lose his seat. Indeed I think the LibDems could be a big winner from the rise of UKIP. I couldn’t before see where the LibDems were getting their vote from in 2015. If you support the government you’ll vote Tory. If you reject the government you’ll vote Labour or UKIP. The demolition of the LibDems seen in council elections would be replicated in the general. I thought.

    UKIP changes that. Whilst UKIP are picking up a lot of voters for many they are too extreme. If the Tories move right to try and head them off (and I don’t see any other option for them) then the LibDems might win supportive of government plus moderate votes. Plus the UKIP factor of splitting seats into multi-way votes could see them retain more seats in exactly the same way that I expect the Tory/UKIP split to let Labour pick up seats they wouldn’t otherwise win.

    Its going to be a fascinating few years!

  31. Farage has hopes of 20 joint Con/UKIP candidates at the GE.

    Nadine can see herself as one of up to a hundred such candidates… improbable, but UKIP will be in a stronger position to negotiate formal/informal pacts than at any previous GE.

  32. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 28th May – CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 15%;

    ———
    The significance of all these polls IMO is that Tory support appears to have consistently dropped below 30% ,while Labour’s remains in the high thirties (as it has for the last 2 Years) at this level it would seem unlikely in the extreme that outright victory could be the Tories in 2015 and Labour could be looking at a landslide with only a third of the votes cast.

    FPTP at its best.

    Looking at the Bookies (not renowned fro giving money away) the latest betting at Ladrokes on 2015 result is:

    Labour Majority
    11/10
    No Overall Majority
    6/4
    Conservative Majority
    4/1
    UKIP Majority
    100/1
    Liberal Democrat Majority
    200/1
    So Labour Odds on Favourites
    At 4/1 I feel these are rather generous odds for the Tories.

    Rapidly becoming a One Horse Race

  33. Forgot to add Odds on Labour being the biggest party 8/15 on

  34. Incidentally Billy Bob you will get odds off 25/1 on any Government involving UKIP.

  35. Survation poll showing Tory collapse, ComRes showing Labour collapse, dear old you/gov showing little change
    enough to make your head spin.

    Maybe we should go back to throwing some coloured sand in the air, or hanging up some seaweed to see which way the political wind is blowing.

    Or maybe we are reading far to much into polls which are reacting to immediate events of the day.

  36. Well sacre bleu !

    After the ECB concerns about the effect of the EZ Financial Transaction Tax, comes the latest Central Banker to say it might be a problem.

    Christian Noyer-governor of the Bank of France.-France being one of the 11 countries planning to implement it.

  37. @TURK

    But all polls showing a Labour majority.

  38. I think the big unknown now is what happens to the UKIP vote between now and the next election. It is of little consequence to UKIP itself (even with their current support they will gain approximately zero or close to zero MPs), but of huge consequence to the other three parties.

    Suppose half of UKIP VIs revert to their old parties in time for the next election. Which half? It could be evenly distributed, in which case the Conservatives will probably still lose unless they simultaneously manage to turn things round with Labour. If Conservative defectors return but Labour / Lib Dem defectors don’t, they’ll probably win. If Labour / Lib Dem defectors return but Conservative defectors don’t, it’s game over.

    Any of these three scenarios is plausible, and there is no precedent here. UKIP is now the wildcard that makes the next election unpredictable.

  39. Chris

    Relax let go of those straws

  40. @Chris

    If there are UKIP\Tory deals it makes the return of Lab\Libs likely and it unlikely UKIP will pick up any more support from Lab\Lib.

    UKIP will become the equivalent of the Republican Tea Party, with much the same effect.

  41. ComRes 2010 voters having a different 2015 intention pattern from YG could be due to ‘false recall’.

  42. Coupler

    The UKIP/TP parallels are manifold.

    An organisation which has the express intention of pressuring the mainstream Right party to move back to its 1980s turf.

    An organisation with the desire to see extreme Laffer Curve tax policies implemented, but dressing this up in language that sounds appealing to the little guy.

    Deeply conservative social positions in a society becoming more liberal by the year.

    By far the most likely outcome is that UKIP will succeed in pulling the Tories rightwards, as the TP did with the Republicans. And, so long as the UK left doesn’t take leave of its senses, we will then have an unelectable Right in both UK and USA for the foreseeable.

  43. Survation poll showing Tory collapse, ComRes showing Labour collapse, dear old you/gov showing little change
    enough to make your head spin.

    Even Com RES show the Labour Party collapsing upwards (if that is possible) from their 2010 GE Performance by 5%
    While showing the Tories improving by a fall of 7%

    If these results were replicated at a GE with only a third of the votes Labour would have a majority of around 40.
    LD’s despite losing nearly 60% of their votes would keep 70% of their seats

    UKIP with around 1/5 of the votes would gain no MP’s.

    Isn’t FPTP wonderful.

  44. The key differences with the Tea Party are that UKIP won’t be able to select Tory candidates,merely attempt to influence them and if enough right-wing Cons are no longer members (preferring UKIP) the remaining Tories may trend left. That probably counts as a possible plus for Cons.

    On the other hand UKIP certainly intends putting up a lot of its own candidates and we now have a lot of people investing time and money presumably with that in mind.Definitely a negative for the Tories relative to the Republicans in the USA.

    There’s also clearly the makings of some entertaining squabbles within UKIP.Farage is every bit as endangered a leader as the other three and unlikely to survive in the role after 2015 ,IMO.

  45. @TURK

    Do you think there is a danger if there are joint Tory\Cons candidates that Cameron and other leading Cons will be asked to defend UKIP policies?

    I think that would be quite dangerous and distracting in the GE campaign.

  46. Tory/UKIP candidates would be disastrous both for the Tories and UKIP.

    The Tory switchers would stay, true, but the Labour and Lib Dem switchers probably wouldn’t.

    Socially conservative Labour voters might go BNP or fold back to Labour, and Eurosceptic or anti-Coalition LAB and LIB voters might well go for the Greens or (where they’re standing) Respect/Liberal Party.

    However, the bigger danger for them is that UKIP policies (which, remember, are not supported by 80%+ of the electorate) become associated in the public mind with Tory policy. Then we get the popular image of the nasty party returning even stronger, the UKIP/CON pact is wiped out and Prime Minister Miliband begins his five successful terms of office.

  47. @MRNAMELESS

    That is what I am thinking as well.

    A big distraction in the GE campaign when Cameron\Osborne are asked to defend re-introducing smoking in pubs, flat rate of tax, re-nationalisation(how will they pay for it…) etc

  48. “On the other hand UKIP certainly intends putting up a lot of its own candidates and we now have a lot of people investing time and money presumably with that in mind”

    On the ground UKIP are getting a lot stronger with branches springing up accross the country, some very determined people, something Tory are weak at.

    I think the main two parties are complaicent in their strong areas and that leads the door open for LD’s, UKIP, and Greens, maybe even Respect.

    The LD’s won seats in my constituency from Lab in the locals, its a Lab marginal, only a couple of hundred votes in it. 12 years ago Labour polled 60%, that was down to less than 34% in 2010(in decline since 1997).

    UKIP will be abe to do what LD’s have done, and gain strongholds, where support will stick, despite a national fall.

    Interesting times ahead.

  49. @Mrnameless

    Now, now… even Margaret Thatcher and her successor only got 4 consecutive terms, and I’d only attribute 2 of the re-elections to the LAB/SDP-split and the subsequent organizational turmoil… ;-)

  50. There are endless problems with a Tory/UKIP pact.

    First problem is that it would be near-impossible do do this as long as Cameron is leading the Conservatives. A lot of UKIP’s vote-grabbing is down to jumping on the bandwagon for various issues dear to the old guard on the Tory Right. UKIP would almost certainly want the Conservatives to drop policies such as gay marriage (or even a free vote on gay marriage) in return for a pact. Cameron will almost certainly be unable to agree to UKIP’s demands. So the only scenario where I could see this happening is in the aftermath of a leadership coup. And we know from 2008-2010 that this level of infighting causes you to haemorrhage votes. It’s highly unlikely the Conservatives could get themselves into an electable state in 2010 whether or not they have a UKIP pact.

    If we instead assume that the Conservatives somehow manage to form a stable pact with UKIP this side of the election, there is still a whole load of problems:

    * Firstly, it won’t result in the UKIP vote going en-masses to a Conservative/UKIP alliance. People who switched from Labour and Lib Dem won’t stick around. I’d give it a maximum of 8% extra, rather than the entirety of UKIP which a lot of Tories seem to think.

    * Secondly, never mind the difficulty in picking up votes from a Labour > UKIP > UKIP/Con alliance; the Conservatives will be gambling with their own voters. Moderate Conservative who’ve stuck by with Cameron’s more socially liberal stance are liable to be scared off by this.

    * And then there’s the implication of coalition arrangements. If the Conservatives do somehow turn things around and end up as the largest party after the next election, it’s unlikely to be with an outright majority, or even an outright majority with UKIP allies. Without a UKIP alliance, they could probably forge another coalition with the Lib Dems. There is no chance of a Con/Lib coalition if UKIP’s in the picture – you’ll probably get a Lib/Lab/Nat coalition instead.

    * And don’t forget you’ve got to govern in the meantime. Can the Conservatives really count of Lib Dem support to govern if they’re simultaneously forging an alliance with UKIP? Doesn’t look workable.

    That’s not to say this won’t happen – the Conservatives are not terribly pragmatic when they’re in panic mode. Can’t rule this out – but it would be an extremely bad idea to do this.

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