Following the very peculiar ComRes poll for Open Europe there is a more normal one out tonight – their monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 30%(-2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+4).

This is the first ComRes telephone poll since the local elections and shows the same trend we’ve seen from other companies – a big boost for UKIP at the expense of the main two parties.

255 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 30, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. Steve2 – I was campaigning in marginal seats in 1992 having done so at the Langbaurgh By-Election a few months earlier.

    I and few Labour supporters believed we would win in 1992 based on campaign feedback with ‘double whammy’ working but some thought producing NOC was possible.

    Remember the polling companies changed their methodology after 1992 as they got the Tory support and consequently other parties so wrong so the pre-rally polls to the actual result is not helpful.

  2. Jim Jam – you don’t even need to point to the lack of evidence of causality, there isn’t even correlation. The average Labour lead in polls conducted in the week leading up to Sheffield was 1.9%. The average Labour lead in the polls the week after Sheffield was 1.9%.

    (*Both, of course, were wrong, but that’s 1992 for you)

  3. science over assertion and anecdote.

  4. Sheffield:

    What those faulty polls showed was that three was probably no movement before > after.

    What they can’t show – even if they were perfect – is what MIGHT have happened had Kinnock not made himself look so enbeievable UN-Prime-Minsterial with his:

    “WE’RE ALRIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    I certainy thought “bugger” at the time. We’ll never know if people had second thoughts or not – there is no “science” in this matter.

  5. STEVE2
    @” An estimated income of £3.5bn a year across the entire EU financial system is utterly useless in every respect.”

    They are now talking of 0.01% of value, rather than 0.1%-hence the 90% drop in anticipated revenues.

    As you say-pointless.

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