This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 29%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here. It’s the highest Labour lead for a while, but all the normal caveats apply.

This is the first poll conducted since the murder in Woolwich, although I would not necessarily expect any impact on voting intention yet. Events like disasters or terrorist attacks can have a political impact if a government is seen to have handled them in a competent manner, or just by virtue of taking other stories off the front page, but time will tell.

I expect we will see some more detailed polling on attitudes towards terrorism over the weekend.


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 42, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. @dan,
    It makes me wonder whether at some stage we might have to revert back to something like a gold standard. The move to fiat currencies back in 1933 by Roosevelt is the one event that you can arguably trace the current problems back too, rather than any Thatcher/Reagon economics in the 80s like is trotted out so often by those with vested interests against free market economics.
    Fiat currencies of course allowed a system where by much deeper deficit spending could be made, which in theory might sound good for monetary flexibility, but in practice now seems to be at a position we are arguably struggling to control?

  2. Hal

    How is running a bigger deficit going to produce sustainable growth, I mean what’s the mechanism? It’s the same as the austerity should work by freeing up capital for the private sector to borrow, it ain’t going to happen because folk already owe too much. The problem is the monetary system, debt can not expand for ever, it’s a mathematical impossibility but our system of money requires that debt is constantly expanding

  3. Rich

    We were on the gold standard until 1972 when Nixon closed the gold window “temporarily” since then currencies have been free floating fiat

  4. @richard,

    You are talking of the Nixon shock, and you are partly right, but effectively what happened around 33/34 changed the value of the dollar and the way it related to gold, as well as the outlawing of ownership of private gold. This effectively ended the true gold standard in favour of fiat.

  5. Of course the money we have now is not true fiat in that it is based on debt. True fiat like the Lincoln greenbacks, Bradbury pound, tally sticks and the currency of the Roman republic, is issued by the state and spent into existence by the state rather than lent into existence by banks

  6. petercairns

    “Bereavement is the oddest thing. ”

    It is indeed Peter: very obvious, but the finality of it is absolutely terrifying, even when expected and death is a genuine release.

    My Mum died aged 90, over ten years ago, and I am still unable to read her cards and letters that she had written over the years and that are still around in drawers.

  7. RiN,

    The problem in the economy right now is too much saving and insufficient spending in the private sector. When this happens, the government has to step in and spend. Failure to do this on a sufficiently large scale leads to a recession.

    At the moment it appears that the deficit is just large enough to stave off collapse and flat-line the economy, or possibly (being optimistic) a very weak recovery. To get a robust recovery, the government should spend more (or cut taxes, or both). As indeed the IMF just said.

  8. @hal,

    I disagree. We seem to have got addicted to this bizarre semi Keynesian obsession with Govt stimulating demand which is so entrenched we actually have a lot of people wanting it to continue ad infinitum. Balance sheets are all the time continuing to expand rapidly.

  9. Rich,

    Balance sheets are not the problem. Unemployment and underemployment are. That’s the problem the public* want to see tackled.

    * at least, the under-60s do.

  10. RICH
    Following on Hal’s point, do you think we get indicators for public consumption that give us a measure of how the economy is doing, in a way which is meaningful to the man on the Clapham omnibus? FTSE is what we see every day, or even on the hour, and GDP from time to time. I can see how FTSE might relate to balance sheets, but both may have an inverse link to the unemployment figures, themselves misleading in respect of full or part time employment or of self-employment; and, say, to personal debt, which may be a crippling factor both to individuals and to the economy.

  11. HAL

    @”QE is not supposed to “work” on its own. It can prevent the situation getting worse, and also it can facilitate the transmission of a fiscal stimulus (government spending) to the economy.”

    QE has nothing to do with fiscal stimuli. Fiscal stimuli are carried out by Government via tax reductions and/or government spending programmes.

    QE-or Asset Purchase-is carried out by central banks and is a monetary stimulus , carried out by injecting new liquidity into the financial market-typically via the banks.

  12. HAL

    @”The problem in the economy right now is too much saving and insufficient spending in the private sector.”

    There is another view-that the problem is too much debt which is cramping private spending, and reducing bank liquidity & solvency ratios via debt impairment charges, thus limiting commercial lending.

  13. I read that the Co-op bank is suspending new corporate lending, whilst it repairs its balance sheet. The banks are still not in a position to help the recovery.

  14. The Guardian have just posted a rather misleading headline on a YouGov poll about Islam in Britain. You have to read quite a way down the page before it becomes clear that perceptions of Islam and Muslims haven’t really changed, and in some areas have actually become more positive.

    Misleading, sensationalist reporting of polls is something the G-Spot have done a few times lately, and I find it a trifle irksome.

  15. @ RiN

    Convertibility of the dollar and Swish Franc (from 1944) and many other currencies (from 1956) to gold was only available to monetary authorities (and only the French used it). It wasn’t gold standard, but dollar standard. It was unsustainable as soon as the US foreign trade became negative.

    The gold standard was suspended numerous times (in recessions) while it was in force (actually helped small shocks to become recessions. It didn’t help the economy and when it should have worked it showed itself ineffective.

  16. @ Hal & Colin

    “There is another view-that the problem is too much debt which is cramping private spending, and reducing bank liquidity & solvency ratios via debt impairment charges, thus limiting commercial lending.”

    Surely that’s just the other side of the coin not an alternative explanation? The high debt leads to more saving, which hurts spending etc.

  17. The constant expansion of balance sheets through QE monetary policy has not been done to this level across so many different countries. The problem I see, is that there is now a lot of vested interested in this policy as most of the money is staying at the top of capital markets and inflating stock markets. How we get out of this to a true free market with areas such as interest rates set by the market is going to be very hard. In the end, I think debt will come back to be a big problem, but only time will tell. It will also be interesting to see if gold will win out in the end. The current conditions you would think make gold incredibly attractive, but conversely we are nearly 2 years in to a bear market, which has seen the value come down by around 30%, with apparently still a lot of short positions out there.

  18. @ John Pilgrim
    ‘Choudary repeatedly refuses to condemn the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby, and equates it with the “hundreds of thousands of deaths of people in Iraq killed by UK forces”

    I have always taken the view that the US- British attack on Iraq was an act of terrorism on a massive scale. As such , the evil incident of last Wednesday does bear comparison to the many thousands of innocent victims of that conflict. I unreservedly condemn both – but I do suggest that those who are now up in arms over this latest tragedy and who defend our conduct in Iraq , can reasonably be accused of hypocrisy and double standards.

  19. AU

    You can save , without debt-ie amassing net assets.

    Or you can save, with debt-ie reducing indebtedness.

  20. @ Rich

    I agree – all this money seek opportunities to be spent, especially to various securities. The P/E ratios are still modest, so the bubble has a long way to go. Oddly the loose monetary policy hasn’t fuelled any M&A bubble yet. It is mainly because the top end of the corporate sector is actually increasing its indebtedness (to buy back shares and pay dividends and also to replace earlier debts).

  21. Current UKPR polling averages = 28% + 37% + 9% = 74%. In other words 26% missing – not worth bothering about?

  22. This London taxi drivers daily news is worth watching if you’re on the left, probably to be avoided if you’re on the right.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8G1BseJicM&list=UUGThM-ZZBba1Zl9rU-XeR-A

  23. Graham

    “Hypocrisy and double standards”

    As a human being I’m appalled by the horrific killing in London the same as I’m appalled by violent deaths in any country.

    I was opposed to Blair involving us in the Iraq war for many reasons , but to say the wars in Iraq were acts of terrorism by the west is a gross distortion of the facts, as is the ridiculous claim by Choudary that UK forces killed hundreds of thousands of Iraq’s in that war.

    What could rightly be discribed as an act of terrorism was Husseins rein of terror over his own countrymen which lasted from 1979-2003 in which many thousand were tortured/gassed and murdered by Hussein and his muderous sons.

    When he was hung by his countrymen for mass murder in 2006 there were few in Iraq who shed a tear especially the many thousands of families who’s loved ones went missing during his reign of terror, including my son’s wife, two of her uncles were murdered by Hussein’s police for speaking against his party in 1983 there bodies were never found.

    Even with all the problems that have beset Iraq since the end of the last war, you will find few who would like to go back to the days of Hussein.

  24. @stutter.

    The 9% is libdems which leaves the 26% for others including UKIP.

  25. Turk,

    I am sorry but to my mind an unprovoked attack on a sovereign state in clear breach of international law was an act of terrorism. I would compare it to Italy’s attack on Abyssinia in 1936. Yes – Hussein was evil – but so are many other world leaders yet we have done nothing about them beyond often propping them up. Was he so much more repulsive than Mugabe or the apartheid regime that ruled with terror in South Africa for many decades? Nothing was done about these vile people. The Iraq affair was not motivated by moral principle at all but by a desire to cosy up to the US. We really should not be too surprised that some people use the sufferings of the innocent to extract revenge in some way – even though the effect is but to add further to the long list of victims.

  26. We freed Iraq from a dictator.

    The only hypocrisy I see is the people who whine about us in Iraq yet seem outraged we’re not in Syria helping rebels linked to Al Qaeda.

  27. Man

    Do you think we should be getting/have got involved involved in either case?

  28. @Graham,

    I fully appreciate that the grounds for going to war in Iraq were fairly spurious, but I think you fall into the same false interpretation of “terrorist motives” that many others do.

    Islamist terrorists were plotting and carrying out violence against western civilians before the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Certainly, the deaths of muslims in the Middle East is a useful propaganda tool for recruiters, but the idea that if we weren’t engaged in “illegal” wars abroad that we would be safe from Islamist terrorists is just boll**ks.

    Read the placards. “Islam will dominate the world”. For Islamist extremists, the whole world is unfinished business. The rapid military expansion of Islam in the 7th century is the model. The stagnation and reversal of that expansion from the 15th century is seen as a temporary setback.

    The excuse might be that they don’t want British soldiers in Muslim countries, but the truth is that they envisage a Muslim Britain with no place for “Westerners”.

    This is all of course anathema to modern Islam, with its emphasis on peace and tolerance, but unfortunately some parts of the Qu’ran are quite easy to interpret as a recipe for Islamic world domination.

  29. Neil A,

    I don’t actually dissent from anything you have said. My fear is that our past actions have created a smokescreen or a pretext for extremists to latch on to.

  30. Laszlo

    P/E ratios are not that modest, but the real question is will those ratios be sustained at these valuations, profit margins are already at historic highs and the consumer is suffering from declining real income, the numbers don’t add up and any rational view of the future has to anticipate either falling margins and/or falling sales. Without growth in real income the present P/E ratio can not be sustained, of course the only way real incomes can grow is by taking from the profit share, it’s a classic catch 22

  31. Colin

    Individuals can save by amassing assets and/or pay down debt but it is not possible mathematical for everyone collectively to do so because all money is debt, therefore one persons asset is another persons debt

  32. Intervention is a very complicated situation, now the Disney ideal is that yes we would boldly charge into all these countries to free them from their dictators and the people would all be thankful and we’d all be friends.

    Unfortunately what tends to happen is we remove a dictator, a power vacuum is created, chaos unfolds, the people are ungrateful (Benghazi attack on US embassy anyone?) and someone much worse, eventually steps up.

    So overall no I don’t think we should intervene, just let the Arabs get on with fighting each other and hope they leave us alone.

  33. Rich

    Yes gold is in a bear market but it’s odd that people who want to buy the metal have to pay a lot more than the spot price, of course as with all markets the amount of gold traded on exchanges is far in excess of actual stocks of the underlying resource. Some say that the price of gold is being manipulated downwards, I don’t know about that but demand is very strong from worried individuals and from non western central banks. I agree with Laszlo, going back on the gold standard would be an absolute nightmare, historically the inflation/deflation swings have been extreme in a real gold standard and gold hoarders can and did manipulate the quantity of money in order to gain access to real assets at knockdown prices causing extreme damage to both the economy and society at large

  34. My view of the Iraq invasion was that it was an act of strategic resource gathering and a means of providing a springboard for possible further western interventions in the region.

    Just wait till Iran fulfills its nuclear ambitions, things are going to get very interesting.

    for me QE was only ever designed to prevent the world economy seizing up completely until real confidence-led growth reappeared and could take over.

  35. New Survation poll:

    Labour: 35% (-1)
    Conservative: 24% (nc)
    UKIP: 22% (nc)
    Liberal Democrat: 10% (-1)

  36. @ Graham

    “I have always taken the view that the US- British attack on Iraq was an act of terrorism on a massive scale. As such , the evil incident of last Wednesday does bear comparison to the many thousands of innocent victims of that conflict. I unreservedly condemn both – but I do suggest that those who are now up in arms over this latest tragedy and who defend our conduct in Iraq , can reasonably be accused of hypocrisy and double standards.”

    i just dont think there can be any moral equivocacy between then actions of these two butchers on Thursday and our seriously misguided, possibly criminal foreign policy.

    However I dont think you can accuse my position as one of double standards because like you I unreservedly condemn both.

    More importantly though I hold to the view that two wrongs do not make a right.

  37. Where’s that 1% Lab gone then? Also, the UKIP vote and Tory vote holds up. Could be more than an anomaly if it happens again.

  38. I wouldn’t describe the Tory vote as “holding up”. The last Survation poll was thought to be a bit of an outlier. Another 24% from them is bad news for Cameron.

  39. Yes, I meant ‘holding where it was’. I blame lack of sleep.

  40. BBC World Service poll has Iran as most unpopular country in the world while Pakistan is second most unpopular.Germany is most popular country in the world.

  41. “@ Neil A

    I wouldn’t describe the Tory vote as “holding up”. The last Survation poll was thought to be a bit of an outlier. Another 24% from them is bad news for Cameron.”

    Agree bad news for the Tories. Whoever made the comment ‘swivel eyed loons’ may have totally wrecked the Tories slight chance of winning in 2015. This comes on top of the previous comments made by Cameron and other Tories about UKIP.

    Pretty bad politics making comments about the character of supporters of parties. While there may be supporters that obsess about certain issues, you can’t make general comments about them, as many others may think you are talking about them. You can’t insult loads of supporters and expect them to remain loyal or consider switching back, if they had been flirting.

  42. Rich

    I have a post to you which has tripped auto mod, heavens knows why, hopefully it will pop out later

  43. Wolf

    Is that a voodoo poll?

  44. wolf

    “BBC World Service poll has Iran as most unpopular country in the world while Pakistan is second most unpopular.Germany is most popular country in the world.”

    Oh, one of the ole German polls then.

  45. I’m very surprised Iran came bottom. They have quite a few supporters. What of North Korea, Zimbabwe, Israel? All widely despised worldwide too.

  46. “BBC World Service poll has Iran as most unpopular country in the world while Pakistan is second most unpopular North Korea,3rd

  47. “BBC World Service poll has Iran as most unpopular country in the world while Pakistan is second most unpopular North Korea,3rd Israel 4th

  48. @richard,

    Just spent an hour or so listening to a piece from David Stockman. I found what he said about the current world QE cycle very interesting. He is adamant it’s the wrong course. £85 billion a month continuing in the US, with a lot of people hoping it won’t come to an end given what it’s financing. I honestly am starting to have concerns how we could ever get out of this if interest rates ever go back to being independant rather than kept at this artificially low level. If they climbed to 5% let’s say, a historically modest figure, there is a huge amount of public and private debt that would be very difficult to service. Not to mention the additional real austerity it would trigger.

  49. Rich

    Stocks is depressing to listen to but he knows his stuff but as far as rates going up, it won’t happen because the price for anything can never be greater than the market can bare. Quite simply if investors try to raise rates it will lead to defaults and everyone goes down together, this is why rates have been declining over the last 30 years

  50. Rich
    Totally agree. Sensible people are paying down debt just now, but lots of people aren’t sensible. The current system of trying to finance growth by debt seems unsustainable. Why do we have to pursue growth all the time? Is it just to service debt? Surely a ‘flatlining’ economy is perfectly ok so long as the population is stable or falling?

    If they do have to print money (QE) and want growth, why don’t they just give everyone say £1000 each instead of shifting it between different arms of the government?

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