This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 29%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here. It’s the highest Labour lead for a while, but all the normal caveats apply.

This is the first poll conducted since the murder in Woolwich, although I would not necessarily expect any impact on voting intention yet. Events like disasters or terrorist attacks can have a political impact if a government is seen to have handled them in a competent manner, or just by virtue of taking other stories off the front page, but time will tell.

I expect we will see some more detailed polling on attitudes towards terrorism over the weekend.

184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 42, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. amber

    “Yes, politicians must give the appearance of caring after an incident such as this”

    I don’t think that’s a fair way to put it. Uitimately they are human beings first and poiticians second and, if we all feel the shock, horror and sadness, I am quite sure they do also.

    But, as Neil implies, its one thing feeling it and quite another articulating it to camera later, when, essentially, you have composed the words and have to re-enact the pain.

    Obama is wonderful at this but I have no doubt all out poiticians are decent sincere people.

    The story of the last text message the soldier sent is Mum was heart rending.

  2. @Norbold,

    The “Vote UKIP, Get Labour” message begins here…..

  3. Smallest UKIP lead over LDs since May 3rd.

  4. Good Evening everyone

    I picked up earlier that the two suspects have not been arrested under the Terrorism Act. Interesting.

    Another thing that people don’t know, is that Woolwich is the seat of local government for Greenwich Council. Seems to have been an odd sort of takeover when Greenwich devoured Woolwich. Normally, you would expect the elected officials to want to be on the sunnier side of town, rather than its nadir, but there you go.

    Local fable has it, however, that the elected officials don’t much like the town hall, and instead spend most of their time in the,Woolwich Centre – and especially in and around Woolwich Library – which ironically they’ve recently farmed out to a big society organisation on a,15 year contract.

    Why is all this relevant? Well the Woolwich Centre (where DC gave his speech) is very close to where the incident took place. Where were all the councillors? We saw lots of ordinary folk thinking it was just another day in the life of their flood plained citadel, as they walked on and past the fray. Where were the politicos?

  5. @Pete B

    I think most are agreed it’s an outlier.

  6. @Norbold,

    The “Vote UKIP, Get Labour” message begins here…..

    Vote UKIP get …Who cares, all of the above are the same.
    Vote Labour get, the same old overspend.
    Vote LD’s get broken promises.
    Vote Tory get bedroom tax.
    Vote Greens get ????.
    Vote BNP elect a northern MP(Worrying), but their Facebook page has only a few hundred less likes than the LD’s and is rising fast. Also more than twice the UKIP likes.
    Vote SNP get thugs.
    Vote PC for a welsh speaking wales.

  7. Hmmm…..will UKIP need a bigger auditorium for their Party Conference this Autumn….?!?!?!?!

  8. Sweeden are having big problems with immigration. If we are not careful, this will happen here soon.

    Do we really want to see this? If it does happen, then UKIP will be polling above Cons.

  9. Err, Earth to Dan.. it’s happened here already. Many times.

  10. Neil A, Amber and Paul Croft

    Thank you for not pillorying me for my attempted analysis. I am worried about Paul’s probably correct analysis of who would be the most effective responder (Obama) to a disaster or outrage.

    What worries me is that he is correct. Neil mentioned the syndrome that works in the favour of the ‘X factor’ politician and that is what worries me.

    In fact, I don’t know what encouraged the family of the murdered soldier to appear before the cameras but that worried me in just the same way.

    The chances that any of my family could do that are nil. Is it stiff upper lip or what is it that decides that?

    Who are the people who are egging on the victims to do this anyway? I know the news media is very much without principle but is there no limit?

    What do voters think? I do not think they will not react as I do, sadly. How will they react?

  11. Err, Earth to Dan.. it’s happened here already. Many times.


    Are you serious? Immigrants have torched primary schools. Missed that in the news. However I wouldn’t rule it out.

  12. @simon

    not really the right site for UKIP trolling

  13. “I do not think they will not react as I do, sadly.”

    Omit the second ‘not’, my apologies.

  14. @ Neil A

    Clearly there is a need to invest more in the nuclear industry ;)
    Or the seaweed industry ‘cos we seem to be good at it.

  15. Amber and Neil

    Energy is the one non-political issue (at least as far as i can discern, i don’t see it up the list of people’s concerns).

  16. @Chatter

    Not me. I was doubting claims that the tourching of Primary Schools had happended in the UK, that was claimed by Neil A.

    I don’t troll, i’m on here every day. I’m just a “poll freak”

  17. I said in my comment yesterday that the politicians would be genuinely upset & dearly wish it hadn’t happened so I’m not going to add anything else to that.

    I will say, I sort of agree with Howard that nothing would induce me to go on TV, were I the family of somebody who had been killed in tragic circumstances.

    I can only think that because the Help for Heroes campaign was very important to the their lad & many of the public are expressing their solidarity with the family by donating to that campaign, they wanted to ‘give something back’ to the public.

    And in some ways, army families do feel that they are part of an ‘extended family’. When somebody they love is killed they are encouraged not to grieve alone but to rely on their ‘extended family’ to help them get through it.

    These two factors have possibly played a part in the family’s decision to interact with the public at this time of deep, personal grief. If the media – or the charity – pushed them in any way, then that would be too horrible! We can only hope that, whatever the family’s reason(s), it helps them & that they never have even a moments regret about having done so.

  18. @ RAF

    Thanks for both pieces of information. The first one remains quite confused (not surprising after the paper on the evolution of the definition of terrorism that I linked the other day). The description of the locality seems rather important (I’m not sure about the contrast between citizens and councillors, but I assume there’s more than you expressed explicitly).

  19. amber

    My brother’s son was killed at the age of 14 when someone punched him, once, as he queued in a fish and chip shop. He was a very gentle sweet boy.

    What I found strange – as I felt I would be seeking isolation – was that all Malcolm wanted to do was talk about it – contacting papers and so on. I don’t think those of us who haven’t experienced it can possibly undertsand the emotional necessity but it may be that the publicity offers some sort of validation for the person’s life.

    I hope I never have to discover how I actually would react.

  20. This has been a tragic few days. How about we now had an outcry when our soldiers die abroad in wars that are forced on us by so called WMD’s.

    Lets get involed in Syria, Lybia and everywhere else and not expect problems. George Galloway is a real politician.

  21. Paul

    I’m so sorry to hear that.

    We need a zero policy attitude to crime and anti-social behaviour in this country.

  22. Both inaction and action have repercussions. I’m glad its not me making the judgements.

  23. Thanks Amber, sensible comment, as so often.

    May i plug a post on an ex-colleague’s blog? Sue Marsh has an eulogy to her recently lost father. I thought it was very instructive to we who post here, especially on my theme of ‘stiff upper lip’. Doesn’t mean you can’t be angry about anything.

    The site is called ‘Diary of a benefit scrounger’

    the link is

    and it’s the second post down.

  24. It would seem that the days of mourning in privacy and restraint are now gone..
    The media in this country seem to be well on the way to reducing every human
    Emotion to a sound bite or a photo opportunity.We are all the worse for this.

  25. @ Dan the Man and Simon

    The whole thing started with shooting a 69 years old in his own house. The police might have been right, but they wanted to cover up (you have parallels from the 1980s and more recently here).

    It is not about immigration. If your name is Laszlo, you can get a job. If your name is Mohamed or Arabic sounding you won’t.

    In the main flashpoint about 400 people have been involved, yet only about 12 people have been arrested. About 100 cars have been set alight. But it’s almost exclusively Stockholm (in Malmo about 3 people are rioting…). More specificallyspecifically Husby and similar outskirts where social housing was created for immigrants (otherwise known as ghetto).

    Immigrant children leave school at 16 because schooling doesn’t offer them anything, carrier advisors do not care with immigrant children. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of the rioters are under 20 (I think we saw this here too). , coloured kids are more likely to be stopped by police than white ones (familiar?).

    Parents of the rioting children demand true integration policies (it’s on the TV unlike here). The only party that blames immigration policies for the riots is the Swedish National Democratic Party, an ally to UKIP. Now the SNDP is actually an fascist party even though they removed the swastika (and now the third largest party in Sweden).

  26. @ Anthony Wells

    I don’t know why my previous post went into moderation. It was a summary of the Swedish situation on the basis of Swedish newspapers and TV. Was it because of the link between UKIP and the SNDP?

  27. Oh, Paul. My heart goes out to your brother; it must have been awful for him & for you & all your family.

  28. @ PaulCroft

    Terribly sorry for your family. Really horrible.

  29. Paul Croft

    Yes, understood. I do not believe we could expect the news media to understand private grief. If i were in the position to advise anyone I loved, I would (have and will) advise to stay away and keep clear.

  30. Simon/Amber

    Thanks it was very sad undeed. Quite unusually Mark’s Mum died [possible drugs overdose] a couple of years later [she and my brother were seperated and Mark ived with his Dad] Malcolm then died of a sudden brain clot when he was at works shortly after that and was, briefly, on the same life support unit as his son had been.

    Ths was all 18 plus years ago but for for relatively young members of the same familiy to die so soon after each other, for different reasons was very strange.

    It was awful for my Mum to ive through: she lost her father when she was about 14, lost her daughter at the age of 7 and my Dad when he was under 60. To then lose a grandchid and a son was more than she should have had to bear.

    I sang for many years with Malcolm – we recorded in the 70s – and I still miss his close harmony voice more than I can say.

  31. Oh, the irony….

  32. Bereavement is the oddest thing.

    I lost my son aged 17 just under seven years ago from heart failure due to a genetic condition. Even though. I had given up being a Councillor then to look after him and knew it was only a matter of time it isn’t something you can prepare for.

    I once read a poem which I recall said ” Death even long expected is still a shock” and that pretty. Much sums it up. It also sneaks up on you so that quite unexpected things that mean nothing to anyone else can trigger a flood of memories and emotions.

    Right now I am trying to deal with my twelve year olds reaction to it. He was only five when Thomas died but as his big sister who is eighteen has the same condition he recently google it and found her life expectancy is only the early twenties.

    Up until now he had grown up with her being as he put it “wobbly” and then in a wheelchair, but he has now to try to come to terms with the fact that she isn’t just in a wheel chair but gravely I’ll, although even at eighteen she hasn’t anything like the cardiomyopathy that her brother had.

    I do feel for him because over the years it has been hard enough for us as adults. One of the reasons I know what it is like for a twelve year old is that when my father died my late son Thomas was twelve and I remember him telling me;

    “It’s alright for you and mum, dad you are adults and Emily is only seven and can’t understand, but I can understand but I am not an adult.”

    We like to think we teach our kids about life, but sometimes it’s the other way round.


  33. @Simon

    “Vote Greens get ????.”

    Energy crises (note the plural).

    SNP thugs? My SNP councillor would blow over in a breeze.

  34. Paul
    Imagine all the people… For Lennon’s beautiful song to come true, there would need first to be one society, since religions – not just ones with a God – function to provide an explanatory paradigm of the social structure and causes of things we can’t encompass. One such being the solace they bring. I’ve posted once or twice ironically about our – mine and others – attempts to relate or explain a sense of restoration of the spirit from turning, however briefly and unbelievingly, to religiion (and if you play Bach you’re not far removed from that experience); and realise it is because it tugs my heart to sense the comedic in trying to communicate that experience: Crossbat11’s account of the comfort he found in kneeling for a spontaneous moment in a quiet church; or a bearded Mullah who was my close associate and friend in Pakistan, who said “Ah John, the first prayer before dawn, going through the still dark streets, away from the family, to the quiet Mosque – that’s when you feel at peace with everything.”

  35. Gosh Paul and Peter those are terribly sad times you have both suffered & you both have my condolences. To have lost family members so young is very very sad.

    Re the press conference by the family of Lee Rigby – I watched it when it was originally broadcast and Sky went to great lengths to tell viewers that the family had asked for it. I think Sky were very aware that there would be a public outcry if they had asked the family rather than the other way round.

  36. In Kirsty Wark’s interview with Anjem Choudary, and with Shams Adduha Muhammad, the Imam of Ebrahim College, and Julie Siddiqui, Executive Director of the Islamic Society of Britain,, Choudary repeatedly refuses to condemn the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby, and equates it with the “hundreds of thousands of deaths of people in Iraq killed by UK forces” in response both to Wakes and to Shams. Shams concludes that it is impossible to have a dialogue within the Muslim community with the radical Islamists whom Choudary represents, saying, to paraphrase him, that they are a group which closes themselves off, as having a political Islamic agenda, one which does not allow them to condemn terrorist killings as un-Islamic, or to separate that condemnation from opposition to UK and other engagement in foreign policy entailing military killings of civilians in Islamic states, which Shams also condemns.
    It is around that division that my concern for greater action on the part of the Islamic community and leadership is focused. I accept the view of people posting here, who are better versed than me in the structure or lack of it of Islam in the UK, that there is no single structure or authority which the Islamic community may bring to bear. Rather, based on this and other evidence of the divide which exists within the UK Islamic community, I believe that overt governmental and public support should be given to Islamic institutions and bodies such as those which Siddiqui and Shams represent; and overt governmental and public opposition, including public information as to who they are and what they stand for, should be strengthened and maintained against the forces which Choudary instructs and claims to speak for. I do not, for one second, think that mine is aligned with a right-wing response – rather the contrary, Choudary’s language and ideas are the persuasive language of an evil with which we are familiar in history and which the left have traditionally fought against. There is a real danger that that response may otherwise take place on the streets.
    There must, I believe, be stronger action by government to remove the ground on which inequalities and social conflict have prospered. In proselytizing young mainly male Muslims, Choudary is well aware of where to plant and nurture the seeds of division and mistrust. Reports of the rioting of immigrants in Sweden are against a background of 16% unemployment among the mainly Muslim youth from Turkey, Iraq and Iran, by comparison with 6% unemployment in the same age group in the general population. These are figures which are strikingly similar to those which existed in the UK thirty years ago and which have persisted or worsened in areas of immigrant concentration.

    It would seem that the days of mourning in privacy and restraint are now gone..
    The media in this country seem to be well on the way to reducing every human
    Emotion to a sound bite or a photo opportunity.We are all the worse for this.

    -I understand Sky News who aired this first only did so because the Family Asked that this occur.
    I might have got this wrong but it would cast a better light on what appeared to be a gross infringement into personal grief

  38. Re the fallen soldier’s family:
    Yes, they will have asked for a press conference, but only because the police will have advised them to do it to lessen media intrusion – this is standard practice.

    I am (was) distant friends with a family who suffered a media-worthy ‘tragedy’ – the tabloid intrusion was sufficient that the teenage daughter of the family (at school with my girls but a different year) killed herself shortly afterwards.

    It’s why my support for Hacked Off, even if they can get a bit carried away now and again, and contempt for tabloid journalists is unwavering…

  39. Dan the Man
    As I know having been on the receiving end of the bricks and bottles in more than one riot it is quite possible to have a riot without depending on “immigrants”!

    Riots generally tend to occur in poor areas,with young populations and high levels of unemployment it just happens that in Sweden these correspond with the areas with the highest migrant population.

    I have no doubt that the Daily Mail wishes to establish a link between migration and disorder this is because of its own Political Agenda and not based on any statistical analysis.

  40. Regarding the riots in Sweden, compared to the UK history of rioting it’s small beer.

    Not that I’m recommending rioting, but rioting in the UK has a very long history and goes back many Centuries, thankfully todays rioting rarely ends in somebody being killed, unlike riots of old like the political meeting in the 1815 Peterloo riot 15 killed, hundreds injured and that was because a riot was feared but not actually happened.

    Incidently rioting by the armed forces usually by the Navy has also occured the 1906 Navy barracks riot in Portsmouth springs to mind.

    In my living memory since 1950 there’s been series of race riots in London, Liverpool and other major cities, poll tax riots. the riots in London recently and many others including Nothern ireland a few of which have resulted in serious damage and distruction to property and serious injury and death (NI) to bystanders participants and police.

    It’s a sad inditment of human nature that rioting is part of the fabric of human nature, and is in some way a safety valve for venting frustration, usually by a minority of people who’s voice is not being heard on a variety of subjects. On balance it’s a thing to be avoided, but sadly it is understandable and the price we pay on the road to improvement of the human condition.

  41. STEVE
    Fair enough. My point is that if you are going to avoid open conflict between young men of any background and the rest of society you’ld better educate and employ them. If, for whatever reason, you allow a differentiation of access to employability and employment between an immigrant population and mainstream society, then you are, for the reasons you cite, asking for trouble and for the creation of an “immigrant” problem.

  42. john pilgirm

    Yes. And if you extend that a wee bit, if you allow a big disparity between opportunities to exist between any group you are asking for trouble in the long run.

    You have to give people the keys…education, jobs, affordable transport and comms. The truth is that people will seek to improve their lot and if you prevent them they’ll seek other routes, many of which the rest of society won’t like much.

    Like austerity, it’s counterproductive.

  43. NICKP
    Tom Burns in 1963 wrote a study, intended for urban planners, which demonstrated that current alarmist reports of delinquency in Scottish new town high rises was purely down to the baby boom of a decade earlier and the weighted fertility of rehoused populations moving in. There was no difference whatsoever in the deliquency v. adolescent population with the rest of the country.
    In terms of the mechanics of urbanisation and migration there’s an inevitable link between the status of the in-migrant group – which in that case was ‘overspill’ from Glasgow – and perceived characteristics, easily exploited by editors and the commentariat with an agenda.

  44. Thurs night out took a poll with friends last GE 8 Tories 3 Lab 2 no vote. Thurs 10 UKIP 2 Lab 1 no vote if they stick to that think it could make a lot of the polls look a bit out ALL the Tories including myself voting UKIP all voted UKIP at local elections.

  45. To change the subject from the awful events in London and the riots in Sweden; As time goes by, I am starting to wonder about what we have got ourselves in to in terms of the way central banks are running monetary policy and effectively interest rate and currencies markets, rather than independant market forces doing so, this rather makes redundant the question of who gets in to power next. I agree something needed to be done, but we almost seem to have a worldwide race to the bottom led by huge balance sheet expansion via QE. I doubt whoever was in power here would have much effect at all. Of course there will be some policy tweaks between parties, but I think it’s at an altogether fractional level against what’s current happening on a monetary basis both here and at a global level.

    and @nickp, comparitively speaking, there actually isn’t half as much austerity as people on the left are citing. It literally is something of a myth. If QE doesn’t work as intended, and we see issues in the fiat markets or even say derivatives, we might see real austerity then. I hope this doesn’t occur of course!

  46. and very sorry to hear of some of the personal tragedies mentioned on here.

  47. Rich

    You are not wrong, worrying times lie ahed in the gamble that is QE.

    I wouldn’t call running a budget defict of £120,000,000,000 as austerity. We are still massively overspending. A problem this government and previous governmeents have not fixed.

    And people think the UKIP vote is only a “protest vote”
    Well people see the current governments policy as “nasty” and the previous lot as an “overspending” party. So where do they vote?

  48. rich

    QE is not working at least as the intention is stated, as the banls are lending to small and medium sized businesses.

    Being a cynic, I wonder whether the UNstatetd intention has more to do with bailing out insolvent banks and inflating away debt.

  49. Dan

    I agree with your analysis as of a UKIP voters considerations for the other big parties but I would still categorise it as a protest vote. Any vote that is not driven by being against something is. UKIP haven’t really given anyone anything to vote for, other than our amputation from Europe and a restriction on marriage to only those of different and distinct sexes. I suppose for some that is enough…

  50. rich, nickp

    QE is not supposed to “work” on its own. It can prevent the situation getting worse, and also it can facilitate the transmission of a fiscal stimulus (government spending) to the economy. But it is not a substitute for a fiscal stimulus.

    The big question is whether the deficit is large enough to get us back to growth. On the evidence so far it appears not.

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