This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 29%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here. It’s the highest Labour lead for a while, but all the normal caveats apply.

This is the first poll conducted since the murder in Woolwich, although I would not necessarily expect any impact on voting intention yet. Events like disasters or terrorist attacks can have a political impact if a government is seen to have handled them in a competent manner, or just by virtue of taking other stories off the front page, but time will tell.

I expect we will see some more detailed polling on attitudes towards terrorism over the weekend.


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 42, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. Clearly the first proper poll for ages.

  2. NICKP
    Am I mistaken, or is that a deeper salmon pink than hiterto?

  3. @NICKP

    Shame there’s not a “like” button on this site!

  4. Sorry but this is obviously a rogue poll, but enjoy it while it lasts

  5. Even if a bit outlying, this one does continue the trend of the last few days with the Con VI stubbornly under the 30 IIRC.

    It doesn’t matter to EM if the 3% from UKIP to Lab stays or not. 39% will do him very nicely thank you.

  6. I think the Lab score is probably a tad high, but again Cons are below 30%. I suspect that had the news not been swamped by events, these polls would have been increasing internal party pressures.

  7. I commented at 1212 but it plunged into auto mod. It was just to say that the tory vote remains below 30 whatever the rest do.

  8. Indeed Alec.

  9. I think the 22% UKIP poll was a rogue a poll. Caused by malevolent Tory grass roots hard nuts playing mind games with the leadership. How can UKIP’s 22% drop to 13% within days?

  10. @Expounder

    Didn’t the UKIP 22% come from a poll with a very small sample compared to most other polls? I suspect the low number of people polled biased the results somewhat.

  11. @joshc

    Good point, I suppose it depends who does the polling. I bet
    Cameron had his legs and fingers crossed. Lol

  12. Labour has been weighted up more in this poll than normal. It may be an outlier.

  13. @John Pilgrim – fpt

    Apologies, but I am one of nature’s worriers. I guess there is always pressure from commercial interests (inventory restocking during conflict) – and as Romney made quite clear during the 2012 campaign, they do have one or two areas on their “unfinished business” list.

  14. Neil A

    Just caught up with last night’s post.

    Thanks, I’d forgotten about Nicky Reilly. Actually, he can be put in a similar category to Richard Colvin Reid (the Shoe Bomber) and perhaps a few others with mental challenges.

    It’s perhaps a bit like the USA Navy training dolphins to be torpedoes.

    So Security services have learned, one imagines, to put no-hopers and misfits in a danger category. Come to think of it, you and Steve are knowledgeable, do you agree with a warder (prison officer) friend of mine who said nearly all his charges were in that category?

    Bit off topic, but interesting; at least not partisan.

  15. Occasional Notes on Cycling 99

    Ms. Way, the woman who tweeted she “definitely knocked” a cyclist off his bike, has appeared on ITV & BBC. She regrets the tweet. She played the victim, stating, tearfully, that threats have been made against her etc. Ms. Way’s employers, who have suspended her from work, sponsor local sports, esp. cycling!

    The cyclist, also on TV, is a v. measured, decent sort of fellow, a model of reasonableness, & not in the least vindictive towards Ms. Way. [With these traits he would be a hopeless poster on YouGov.] He was a perfect advert for cyclists while she was the opposite for motorists.

  16. The tory VI has been averaging just below 30% for a while. The infighting is having a steady effect and the last week or so have been particularly bad.
    Woolwich may give them some relief as it takes the steady stream of disgruntled backbenchers of the screens – but only temporarily. The problems still remain – bitterly divided over europe and ‘modernisation’, a widespread and deep distrust of cameron, the rise of UKIP and an economy steadily flatlining.

    Camerons position seems impossible – lurching after UKIP in order to shore up support from his own core voters – and party – puts him on a collision course with the lib dems and will alienate more centrist voters. Heading for the centre leaves him to be devoured by the right.

  17. hello, I’ve been a lurker on this site for a while, hope you don’t mind me using my first post to ask for some help. I have a student who is researching the extent to which family voting traditions affect people’s VI. Would you be able to point me/him in the direction of any studies/polling on this topic? many thanks for any help.

    for what it’s worth, the Lab=40 looks like a blip to me, I predict none of the 3 main parties will get much beyond Lab=mid 30s, Con=high 20s, LD=10ish until the GE campaign. what odds would you give me that 2015 sees the lowest % (of the population eligible to vote) voting for one of the 3 main parties, since universal suffrage began? what’s the current record for this?

  18. “I expect we will see some more detailed polling on attitudes towards terrorism over the weekend.”

    *groan*

    What would be the point in asking these questions in the aftermath of the Woolwich murder ?

    It’s almost certain to return a ‘I think the security services should round them all up & lock them away just in case they….’ kind of response isn’t it ?

  19. UKIP have gone in coalition with Labour and the LibDems
    on Norfolk County Council. Boost to Labour there I think.

  20. I wonder how hard the UKIP support actually is. There is clearly a core support of around 11% but over that it seems to get flakey.

  21. Obviously the Tory in-righting is having an effect, as for the Woolwich tragedy, if it is going to boost any party it will probably be UKIP.

  22. Obviously a bit of an outlier. You Gov seems to be holding up pretty well for Lab after a nervous month for them. Still not sure if this means a divergence between You Gov and the other polls or whether the other polling companies will start to show similar results to You Gov. I guess we have to wait a month on most of them now but could be the emergence of UKIP has caused some methodology differences now that weren’t there a year ago.

    Has AW added a spell checker? when I type Gov it gets underlined in red! let’s try you’re and your… doesn’t get underlined!

  23. @ Reggieside,

    “Woolwich may give them some relief as it takes the steady stream of disgruntled backbenchers of the screens – but only temporarily.”

    There is in fact a fixed date for Euroshambles Episode 5,623. The Private Member’s Bill on the referendum is up for debate on June 19th, and Bone et al. are going to be all over the airwaves moaning about how it hasn’t been given government time, especially if it gets talked out at first reading. So Tory infighting will be out of the spotlight for a maximum of three weeks before it comes back in force.

    It may be back sooner, because the Tory ministers seem to be taking a moderate, sensible line on panicked anti-terrorism legislation but I doubt the swivellier backbenchers will be satisfied with that. And on the other side there’s David Davis and the other civil liberties advocates. Cameron could be looking at a three way split and a protracted fight over this, especially if the Lib Dems hold firm.

  24. wolf

    UKIP have gone in coalition with Labour and the LibDems on Norfolk County Council. Boost to Labour there I think.

    Norfolk CC make-up is Con 40, UKIP 15, Lab 14, Lib Dem 10, Green 4, Ind 1, so that’s a real rainbow coalition. The Tories apparently expected Lib Dem support but failed to get it. The Greens seem to be supporting on a conditional basis and not taking positions.

    You would think that the ‘obvious’ coalition was Con-UKIP, but that doesn’t seem to happened which may be an indication that UKIP are more than just the mildly-disaffected Tories with only a different agenda at national level that some believe/hope them to be.

    Interestingly the new Leader of the Council is Labour though UKIP are the second largest Party. All but one of their councillors are new though, so that may be the reason.

  25. @David

    “Obviously the Tory in-righting is having an effect, as for the Woolwich tragedy, if it is going to boost any party it will probably be UKIP.”

    I have a funny feeling that you may be right and I await the weekend YouGov poll with interest. There was a mini-debate on the previous thread about whether Cameron and his government might benefit politically if they were seen to be handling the current terrorist crisis well. If they did, it wouldn’t be a total surprise because people tend to rally round their Prime Minister and Government when they feel threatened or insecure. Blair enjoyed a bounce in the immediate aftermath of the 2005 London bombings and, historically, there are many such similar examples. However, bearing in mind the current febrile state of our domestic politics, and the conflation of explosive issues thrown up by Wednesday’s outrage (race, immigration, religion, terror, crime etc), it wouldn’t surprise me if a populist party like UKIP benefited.

    For the disillusioned and frustrated, a simplistic diagnosis and a set of easy answers can sometimes prove irresistible.

  26. Shevii

    Spell-checking came in with IE10. If you’re using IE, IE10’s probably been loaded automatically last night.

  27. Cameron is clearly on firmer political grounds with this murder than with recent events in his party and in the HoC, but I think the respite will be a short one.

    Europe will not go away, nor will UKI, or Mr Clegg, The ‘swivel eyed loons’ might, but they would probably be welcomed by UKIP.

    I guess a short respite followed by further decline is on the cards.

  28. Martin Williams.

    I believe the quoted phrase was ‘mad swivel-eyed loons’ but as it contains a tautology, perhaps everyone is saving the originator’s blushes.l

  29. There is a very moving article in the ‘Catholic Herald’ on line version with an interview with the lady who got off the bus to be with Drummer Rigby, and who talked also to the man who is being charged with his murder.

    Well worth a read.

  30. “Interestingly the new Leader of the Council is Labour though UKIP are the second largest Party. All but one of their councillors are new though, so that may be the reason.”

    I suspect it’s more that Labour were more acceptable to the Liberals and Greens. To get a majority the coalition need the Greens to provide confidence & supply, and I suspect propping up a UKIP administration would have been a bridge too far for them.

  31. That said, the UKIP leader has publicily made “we need to learn the ropes” type statements, so probably a mix of both.

  32. UKIP’s alliance with Labour in Norfolk, when David Cameron turns up his toes they will find engraved on his heart, ‘Loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists’ it won’t be easy for UKIP to do an alliance with the Tories after that. If Farage was consulted, I’m sure he made it quite clear (in blunt language) that any alliance with the Tories was out of the question.

    Errr Gov is not an actual word, that is why it was underlined.

  33. “”We don’t know why they are doing this. There is no answer to it.”

    Stockholm police spokesman
    BBC.

  34. Laurence Logic Corner.

    Martin Williams.

    ‘I believe the quoted phrase was ‘mad swivel-eyed loons’ but as it contains a tautology, perhaps everyone is saving the originator’s blushes.’

    Could be pleonasm. But is it kind of hendiadys? In any case it emphasises the (alleged) madness of the said swivelled eyed Tories? but I don’t think he should be blushing because of his English usage. He might be blushing everytime he sees a swivel-eyed grass roots Tory.

  35. See above.

    Meant Howard!

  36. I can well believe a Stockholm Police spokesman would be dim enough to say such a thing – the Authorities there have never seemed to switched on to the general mood.

    People have been warning of this for years as the government have pursued policies that (apparently deliberately) ghettoise the poor in grim out-of-town suburbs.

  37. “Errr Gov is not an actual word”

    It is in the Sweeney.

    Regarding the alliance, I have noticed over the years that when it comes to NOC situations, Labour are quite adept at getting control in any shape or form. Look at their unwillingness to support the SNP or Conservatives North and South of the border for certain policies (which might be sensible ones), but make coalition with them for control of councils (generally ally with Con in Scotland to prevent SNP, and ally with anyone to prevent Con in England).

    No mention of coalitions in that respect though. ;)

  38. Woolwich may give them some relief as it takes the steady stream of disgruntled backbenchers of the screens – but only temporarily. The problems still remain – bitterly divided over europe and ‘modernisation’, a widespread and deep distrust of cameron, the rise of UKIP and an economy steadily flatlining.

    One would think they’d learn.

    But no.

    Ultra-right or ultra-left = puts off the voters.

  39. @Howard,

    There are certainly a lot of misfits and no-hopers in prison, but the problem is that there are an awful lot of misfits and no-hopers in society too. Many of the them have already been to prison before, and will probably go to prison again. It’s rather hard to work out how we could keep an eye on them in a way that we don’t already do.

    As a bit of a misfit and no-hoper myself (at least within a policing context) I am a bit reluctant to turn a spotlight. After all, Mohammed Siddique Khan fitted right in and had plenty of hope, with a wife, children, a job as a learning mentor at a school etc. Didn’t stop him detonating at an Underground station.

  40. I wish I had something to say about the events of the last few days. The scenes in Woolwich made me feel like a spectator at some ghastly scene like putting out of Gloucester’s eyes in Lear. But obviously in the profoundest way this is desperately sadder and more tragic than anything penned by Shakespeare.

    Then we have the man shooting himself in Notre Dame to protest gay marriage….

    We tend to think we’ve become immune to religious excess sometimes neatly forgetting our own recent past and always overlooking events in Ireland as if they were in another world to the one where our politics has played such a part.

    Yet the measy meal we make of faith and belief in God must puzzle Him almost as much as it pains Him. Our most human need is to make others to conform to the way we think and it often blinds us to truths all about us….

    And thus back to the lesser truths of the polls….Labour’s increase likely to be an outlier but in any event after the recent run of less and glowing publicity for the Conservative party such a blip might mean nothing more than the public briefly registering this fact…

    Behind all this lies a hard fact that this autumn the party conferences will be of more than usual importance to all the leaders but perhaps most of all to EM who has reached that moment when he needs a policy narrative to begin to emerge. Here the signs of rebuilding the Welfare state once more around the contributory principle might well play exceptionally well if it can be seen to be part of a wider attempt to deal with structural problems & a big house building programme would work well on so many different levels, financial, economic & social.

  41. I think the gay marriage debate is far more important to VI than the Woolwich murder as it directly affects a significant minority.

    Somehow Cameron managed to get the bill through but lose most of the credit for it due to the dissent from his backbenchers, and in a double whammy, lose supporters of the dissidents to UKIP.

    Labour gained from playing a pivotal role in getting the measure through.

  42. @ Donna.
    Welcome etc.
    I have a student who is researching the extent to which family voting traditions affect people’s VI. Would you be able to point me/him in the direction of any studies/polling on this topic?”

    Can s/he not just type the ? into Google to get started.

    “what odds would you give me that 2015 sees the lowest % voting for one of the 3 main parties, since universal suffrage began? what’s the current record for this?”

    No odds at all. Seems v. probable. But:
    Do you mean the lowest % voting for one of the three parties, OR for [all] the three parties. Universal suffrage was introduced for 1929 election for no particular reason, AJP Taylor says, other than a junior minister blurted out it would be.
    The answer to former ? is 1951; to latter 2010.

  43. Both nuclear reactors at Torness power plant taken off line due to seaweed. 1200MW of generation capacity out of commission until June 7th.

    Torness represents about 10% of total nuclear capacity, and currently around 50% of all UK nuclear capacity is off line.

    #NeverHappenedtoWindTurbines

  44. Anthony

    apols for previous post [now deceased] In my defence, amost every word was a direct quote from a previous poster’s analysis of current polling…………….

  45. Neil A

    Indeed. I heard some former bigwig of MI6 (that confused me, i thought they just did the ‘foreigns’) say on the Beeb that he couldn’t imagine where to start, so i don’t imagine the MI5 lot do either.

    In this case, one of the perps, at least, had been filmed doing the ‘I am a militant follower’ bit, but even if he was so known, anyone, including you and I, could get a few carving knives or use a car as a weapon. Indeed, someone has just pleaded guilty to have perpetrated that latter felony in Swansea. Not only that, but acquiring a firearm is merely a matter of having a few quid and a wander down to a sleazy inner city watering hole.

    I think what intrigues me, (on subject thus), is, how many go for the platitudinous statements, rushed out by all politicians, and how many just think, ‘oh well, that’s what they feel they have to do i suppose’.

    Those who get totally affected and wrapped up in the sadness of it all, may possibly form views that may lead to a different voting intention? This must be the explanation of why all the political leaders rush to the microphones every time. Damage limitation must be the motive.

  46. @ Howard

    Damage limitation must be the motive.
    ———-
    Yes, politicians must give the appearance of caring after an incident such as this; & there’s actually some justification for doing so in this particular case because the perpetrator actually said: Your government doesn’t care about you (or words to that effect).

  47. I think in fairness to politicians, they are not immune to the say shock and heart-rending that the rest of us feel and I for one assume that despite the rather cliched language of their statements they are actually sincerely made.

    I do think there’s a sort of emotional mob mentality in modern Britain which the public expects everyone to buy into and “share the pain”. I suppose it’s a combination of Diana and social networking. But I harbour no cynicism about DC, NC or EM in relation to the Woolwich murder.

  48. @Alec,

    Clearly there is a need to invest more in the nuclear industry ;)

  49. Norfolk Council voted 41-38 in favour of a motion proposed by Toby Coke, leader of the UKIP group, seconded by Richard Bearman, leader of the Green group, to agree in principle to change Norfolk County Council’s cabinet system of decision-making to a committee system.

    Nice to see the Greens and UKIP working so well together.

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