This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline voting intention figures of CON 29%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here. It’s the highest Labour lead for a while, but all the normal caveats apply.

This is the first poll conducted since the murder in Woolwich, although I would not necessarily expect any impact on voting intention yet. Events like disasters or terrorist attacks can have a political impact if a government is seen to have handled them in a competent manner, or just by virtue of taking other stories off the front page, but time will tell.

I expect we will see some more detailed polling on attitudes towards terrorism over the weekend.


184 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 42, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. @peteb
    There is a theory that it is exactly what should be done. QE is not making much difference, except to make very rich people even richer. It would probably be more effective to just give everyone a lump sum of money to spend. But, the problem is that it is a class issue and a moral issue. People are meant to earn their money. It is a class issue because it is not considered immoral for Cameron /Osborne etc to inherit vast amounts that they didn’t earn. But is immoral for ‘plebs’ to be given unearned money (and then they might not be prepared to work for the minimum wage on a zero hours contract).

  2. Business ceased to be about the margins especially in the US. It is about the ability of attracting debt that allows for increasing the volume of profits and of course externalising the risk. This has been on for at least 40 years. It seems to work – of the publicly traded companies barely any has gone to liquidation in the last 60 years. The risk is pushed on the banks, the markets and the tax payers. The 2008 crisis was NOT because of greedy and reckless banks. It was well within the processes that started in the 1970s.

    @ Pete B

    By your definitions businessmen aren’t sensible because business aren’t deleveraging – just the opposite.

    Anyway, in order that this roulette could continue beyond short term, the money have to be redistributed among players (or the Casino has to give away money – more QE. Especially a lot more money for banks).

  3. @ RiN and Pete B

    My response went to auto mod.

  4. @ Neil A

    I fully agree with you, whatever one thinks of the intervention in Afghanistan and the war against Iraq, terrorism is quite independent of them. It is possible that these increased the number of applicants, but did not create the vacancy.

  5. GRAHAM
    The justications for going into Iraq were phoney – no WMD and no association with or presence o Al Qaider – the intelligence total crap, and B&B’s motives conditioned by religious zeal at the expense of common sense, or any rational concern for the consequences. The reasons for war in Afghanistan – opposing Soviet presence and their interest in access to blue water through Baluchistan – were of interest to antiquarian armchair strategists willing to suborn Pakistani army and religious politics to create the Taliban, to continue the production of opium, to deeply harm the freedom of women throughout the region, to satisfy the demands of US domestic politics, and to sacrifice the lives of British men and women under the command of misguided and misdirected military idiots. So, in case you’re in any doubt, I oppose the interventions in both countries, and agree with others that we are reaping the consequences.
    That does not stop me wanting a rational political and governmental response to both the complexities of immigration management, and to the – to my mind – less complex question of the origins of home-grown radicalism and terrorism, for which people like Choudary have a heavy responsibility.
    I am, on this blog, interested in how public understanding of the latter problem plays into the formulation and implementation of policy, and thus in the public response, to to policy,, or to the views of politicians, expressed in VI. To take the long view, I consider an understanding of the link between failures of equal access to and the quality of education, employment and decent urban conditions as factors in this as much as the rational management of foreign policy, and believe government directed investments in education, employment creation, with a positivie discrimination towards communities with a concentration of immigrant communities, and in economic development in countries whose poverty gives rise to migration to the west, as the basic conditions for the avoidance of terrorism. I believe this site to be of great value in examining how this and opposing or alternative views play out in determining who we get in government, and how VI and wider support for rational policies in these areas may emerge in the formation of government

  6. Guys, I meant to bring this up earlier this week when it actually happened (I was kinda preoccupied on Tuesday with other things and then I’ve been fighting exhaustion the rest of this week) but I wanted to say how sorry I was to hear about what happened to that soldier. It’s as horrifying and shocking as it is disgusting. I feel horrible for his family. My heart goes out to them. My condolences from across the pond.

    You have to wonder what is going through the heads of the perpetrators. I don’t know what makes people capable of such calculated, premeditated evil. Just awful.

  7. Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 24th May – CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -38

  8. @ Billy Bob (for whenever you’re around)

    I think you will appreciate this map as much as I do.

    http://graphics.latimes.com/la-mayoral-maps/#13/34.1446/-118.4591

    You can plug in any address or landmark you’ve read about in a Raymond Chandler novel (or a James Ellroy novel if you’re like my college best friend) and see what precinct it’s in and how that precinct voted! And the numbers will change in the end but only in one direction (Garcetti’s) at this point.

    I should note the election results in the precinct that is home to Hugh Heffner, Petra Ecclestone, and John Williams (as well as the former home of Ronald Reagan and Jane Wyman, Omar Sharif, Aaron Spelling, Lloyd Bridges, and Bertrand Russell):

    Garcetti: 68%
    Greuel: 32%

    Election results in the precinct that is home to the British General Consulate Residence:

    Garcetti: 66%
    Greuel: 34%

    My sister noted a few weeks before the election that Wendy Greuel had successfully channeled Margaret Thatcher…or the portrayal of her in the movie, the Iron Lady. Also, Thatcher wasn’t exactly a friend to public employee unions….of any kind (hard to see any kind of labor union spending unlimited amounts of money on Thatcher’s behalf to bash Callaghan, Foot, or Kinnock) and Thatcher never ran on a platform of “vote for me, I have a vajayjay”. Greuel….she was like a cross between Maggie Thatcher and Ed Milliband with a little bit of Harriet Harman mixed in.

    Btw, did I ever tell you how much I love Republicans? And I mean, LOVE Republicans. ABSOLUTELY LOVE THEM. (For right now anyway, at least those who live and vote within the limits of the City of Los Angeles). So much so that I decided Wednesday would be “Hug-A-Republican” day but that’s been extended through the week now.

    America’s second largest (and most important) city will be led by a Keynsian. :)

  9. amber…the something for everybody poll?

    Lab still on 40%. Con 30%. Ukip third. LD managing double figures. Looks a lot different to either:

    Lab 39 Con 31 LD 9 UKIP 15

    or

    Lab 41 Con 29 LD 9 UKIP 16

  10. Leadership polling –
    Pure Approval –
    Cameron 34 (+2)
    Miliband 30 (+3)
    Clegg 16 (nc)

    Net Approval –
    Cameron -27 (+3)
    Miliband -28 (+7)
    Clegg -59 (+2)

    Interesting Terrorism questions –
    How effective are the coalition at dealing with terrorism? (Changes since January)
    Effective – 41 (nc)
    Ineffective – 47 (+9)
    Split is almost entirely partisan – with UKIP voters the most concerned that that the government is ineffective.

    How would you rate the chances that you, family or close friend would be hurt in a terrorist attack –
    Total High –
    2005 – 16
    January – 8 (-8)
    Now – 10 (+2)
    2005-Now -6

    Total Low –
    2005 – 63
    January – 59 (-4)
    Now – 54 (-5)
    2005-Now -9

    Almost non-existent –
    2005 – 13
    January – 19 (+6)
    Now – 26 (+7)
    2005-Now +13

    So the big shift has been toward an almost non-existent likelihood, even after this attack.

    Weekly weighted Averages (changes on a week)

    7-Day –
    Con 29.2[1] (-0.9), Lab 39.7 (+0.3), Lib 10.3 (+0.8), UKIP 14.5 (-0.1), Green 2.3 (-)

    30-Day –
    Con 30[1] (-0.8), Lab 39.5 (-0.1), Lib 10.1 (+0.1), UKIP 14 (+0.8), Green 2.2 (nc)
    Con VI is still falling, Lab has stabilised at around 39.4, with today’s shift either a blip or the start of average movement upward (too early to tell).
    So last 6-figures:
    Con 30.8, 30.6, 30.4, 30.2, 30.1, 30
    Lab 39.6, 39.5, 39.4, 39.4, 39.4, 39.5
    Lib 10, 10.1, 10.1, 10.1, 10.1, 10.1
    UKIP 13.2, 13.5, 13.6, 13.9, 13.9, 14
    Reminder that these are the ‘long-run’ figures, so Con could be settling at 30 (and the long-run is only just catching up), but I’ll know more in a week or so (unless recent events massively shift VI).

    [1] Both these figures are Con lows for this parliament.

  11. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”a rational political and governmental response ”

    Whether it is rational or not , you & I can decide what we think.

    It is certainly expensive-millions have been spent.

    The programme is called “Prevent”. It was started under Labour & continued under this government.

    Cameron has just announced a review of Prevent.

    Some might say-not before time.

  12. I just woke up from a dream where DC had resigned and gove was the new PM, had to check here in case it wasn’t a dream, I think I may have to give up sleeping

  13. “@ richard in norway

    I just woke up from a dream where DC had resigned and gove was the new PM, had to check here in case it wasn’t a dream, I think I may have to give up sleeping ”

    Afrer that nightmare, I think you need to go to a quiet place to meditate for half an hour.

    Gove is only popular with intellectual Tories, which fortunately is only a small sect within their party.

  14. R HUCKLE

    @”intellectual Tories, which fortunately is only a small sect within their party.”

    …..a sect which is completely banned in the Labour Party I believe?

    Thanks for this morning’s chuckle!!!

  15. Chuckle-Huckle………should have made more of that .

  16. @Colin

    Glad it brought a smie ! Labour have Ed M as their token intellectual. You don’t want too many, as it puts voters off.

    I think there is some polling to suggest that voters don’t warm to intellectual types. They prefer people that they can relate to.

  17. R HUCKLE

    @” think there is some polling to suggest that voters don’t warm to intellectual types. They prefer people that they can relate to.”

    Really?-very Howardian-and depressing.

  18. Why do we pay attention to commentators on the polls? Toby Young is still commenting with undiminished confidence. Yet nine days before the 2010 GE he predicted 115 LD seats and 195 Labour. Actuals were 57 and 258. Not a track record to command confidence.

  19. @David Butler

    Clearly Free Schools are the answer, as they apparently are to everything else.

  20. Thanks to TF and Amber.

    My first reaction was, it would seem high time for DC to go and be nasty to Barroso or Rompuy or (some such press media hate figure) but on the other hand perhaps those so influenced are already in the 14% UKIP VI corner?

  21. DAVID BUTLER
    Because commentators are paid to defend a certain ideological position and won’t let facts get in the way of that position.
    This is true across the political spectrum and across newspapers.

    So they’ll abuse polls as ‘evidence’ for their position that is already decided.
    Thankfully we have UKPR to get the actual facts on polling numbers (even if we, below the line, disagree on what they actually mean).

    All –
    Looks like we’re heading for a coalition (and potentially internal Labour party) bust up over the data/communications bill which Clegg vetoed.
    Lots of Labour, Lib and Con MPs/Lords pushing for it, but Labour and LibDem high command pushing against it.

  22. Re Toby Young
    My favourite prediction of his was where he said Cammo had secured the 2020 World Cup for us!

  23. @R Huckle

    “I think there is some polling to suggest that voters don’t warm to intellectual types. They prefer people that they can relate to.”

    Talking of fully paid up members of the human race and politicians that people can relate to, did you see Alan Johnson’s interview with Nick Robinson on Marr’s programme earlier this morning? He was talking, amongst other things, about his recently published autobiography which chronicles, without a trace of maudlin self-pity, his early and formative years. It’s a moving and extraordinary story of hardship and emotional trauma. He was brought up in poverty in the then slum part of Notting Hill in the 1950s, with an absentee father and a mother who died when he was still very young and his elder sister, herself only 15, became in effect his lone step-parent. To think that he emerged from that childhood as the manifestly rounded personality that he is, and then to become a very successful politician, is a great tribute to both him and his elder sister.

    It troubles me grievously to think that he felt he couldn’t take that last step to challenge for the Labour leadership because, as he puts it, of that lingering lack of self-confidence that stemmed from his desperately difficult childhood and lack of formal education. A great loss because I would love to see a man or woman from Johnson’s background attain the highest office in the land. A former postman who used to deliver letters to Chequers before, later in his life, next visiting as a Cabinet Minister. One the great political anecdotes of our time, in my view, and the most telling definition of what social mobility really means that I can imagine.

    That said, I’d be careful of too much anti-intellectualism. Some of my great old political heroes – Crosland, Crossman, Jenkins, Healey, Foot, Shore – could be classified as intellectuals. The politics of ideas is important too.

  24. RH and Colin
    You’ve got me trying to think about a Lab MP ‘intellectual’ (not inverted commas). Since Blair stopped that nonsense, I am struggling. On the basis that intellectuals are prone to ‘gaffes’ (being honest or amusing) I nominate Liam Byrne (there’s no money left’). I am also very fond of Gerald Kaufman. I will never forget his gesture in stepping down as FCO spokesman following his depiction as a snake on the Spitting Images TV programme. He said that he identified himself as a problem to Labour’s re-election and was removing that problem.

  25. Note not not.

  26. COLIN
    Thanks or the heads up on Prevent. Prevent in turn is part of CONSENT – https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/97994/contest-summary.pdf, which includes other “workstreams” of a counter-terrorism strategy

    Not a site I am going to tilt at, except to note that the Government’s 2011 review of the previous government’s Prevent programme makes a strategy change: “Prevent must not – as it has it the past – assume control of funding for integration projects which have a purpose and value far wider than security and counter-terrorism. The Government will not securitise its integration work: that would be neither effective, proportionate nor necessary” – while it recognises that “People drawn to extreme right-wing terrorism are usually male, poorly educated (although there are some cases of high-achieving individuals) and often unemployed.

    That is, the spending on Prevent is decided to be specifically that of counter-terrorism, because of the opposition to it on grounds of the intrusion of policing and interlligence gathering – snooping – in community and civic activities aimed at a wider integration of immigrant communities. The downside of this change of strategy, or direction, seems to me to be that of the separation of security measures and agencies from the work and agencies engaged in integration. IMV the failure of equality of education and employment is at the root of radicalisation, and should be the basis of positive discrimination and thus of integration, joining mainstream social policy with a long-term security strategy .
    I wonder what the further planned review of the program might reveal in terms of the possible widening of a gap between security and community, and between policing and dissafected groups, vulnerble to radicalism and its propagandists, who use that gap as an instrument of contestation between their authority and that of government.

  27. If you look at the predictions for individual seats on Electoral Calculus, it seems to show not only a whole bunch of LAB gains, but also Labour overtaking the Lib Dems as the second-place party in a lot of places.

    If that’s true, it could put Labour in quite a good position for 2020. Or will tactical voting keep pinning them down?

  28. @SoCalLiberal – “I decided Wednesday would be “Hug-A-Republican” day but that’s been extended through the week now.”

    Well fry me for an oyster, I do worry about you sometimes.

    I have an Ellroy on the shelf, but haven’t read it yet. There are only so many Chandler novels unfortunately (but they repay re-reading), so I’ve been out SF way in the company of Dashiell Hammett and the Continental Op, and am now back in LA with Cool and Lam/Perry Mason etc, courtesy of Erle Stanley Gardiner… they lack atmosphere and characterisation but are ingeniously plotted.

    Gardiner passed the bar exam in 1911 and practiced out of Ventura… his novels are full of procedure. Mason (the fictional office has a Madison code) is not above planting false cues, with the intention of forcing the police/DA to delve a little deeper and inadvertantly uncover some genuine evidence (I doubt you could get away with that now). A side project was the Court of Last Resort, where Gardiner gathered together legal experts to review real-life miscarriages of justice.

    That is quite a result for Eric Garcetti: “America’s second largest (and most important) city will be led by a Keynsian.”

    Sad to say, there are plenty of distressing stories about the consequences of austerity here, which currently fall below the radar of our media. Added to that, the weather has been abysmal.

    On the bright side, rain isn’t always such a bad thing. Here is a bookshop in LA, it probably serves latte now though:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqoxk3SrZRw

  29. JOHN PILGRIM

    I have a post on the new thread which was written after this mornings Times & the last few days’news.

    It is in Mod-so AW clearly wants the subject dropped-don’t blame him.

    I don’t agree with your”the failure of equality of education and employment is at the root of radicalisation, ” it is far far too simplistics & naive.

    ..still… by by CONSENT. PREVENT & the rest of it-and hello TERFOR.

    On we go -with fingers crossed.

  30. COLIN
    Recognition that, to quote HMG, ” “People drawn to extreme right-wing terrorism are usually male, poorly educated (although there are some cases of high-achieving individuals) and often unemployed. “, doesn’t mean not seeing a need for strengthened policing and security: V. complex, and needs to be strengthened, within its own parameters but in combination with positive discriminatory funding and special measures tailored to communities in areas of high minority youth unemployment.

  31. JOHN

    Suggest you read the accounts of Micheal Adebolajo’s life-his good education & upbringing-then the sources & places of his radicalisation, the role of the LA in funding “preaching groups” which he attended………….

  32. COLIN
    Source? I will, but this doesn’t surprise me. There is a case for seeing domestic terrorism as having some of the characteristics of Ho’s prescription of guerrilla warfare (petty war, literally) as conducted as fish within a surrounding shoal; the mass of urban, young, immigrant, Islamic, unemployed, not so much poorly educated as educated in the mosques, maddrassas and on the internet and street corners. So, get rid o the sea an the shoal.
    What goes to the heart of my concern as to successive versions of acronymic anti-terrorist “workstreams” – aaagh!! – is that they are set up by the same expert clowns whom I’ve encountered from the informed fringes of Afghanistan, well-heeled academy and bureaucracy-bound progenitors of ineptitude..

  33. Any decent newspaper John-and news broadcasts.

  34. Ukip/con 46 lab/lib 45

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