Long after I should have, I have finally got round to collecting up polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum next year on its own page here (though I’ve put the polls as they stand in this post too). This should include all the polls so far that have asked the referendum question since it was set last year (both before and after the Electoral Commission tweaked it!).

As you can see, there isn’t actually any obvious trend in the polling, each company’s figures seem to be roughly steady. The main variation there is actually between Panelbase, who do regular polling for the Sunday Times, and the polling done by Ipsos MORI, TNS BMRB and other companies, with Panelbase tending to show a much tighter race than the others. One can only speculate what the reasons might be. Panelbase take the slightly strange decision of only including people certain to vote in a Scottish Parliament election in their samples for referendum voting intention, which could have an impact. There could also be a mode effect – Panelbase use online fieldwork, MORI conduct interviews by telephone, TNS BRMB use face-to-face polling (a method that has otherwise all but vanished from British political polling). It is no doubt something we will return to closer to the actual referendum.

  Survey End Date Yes No Wouldn’t vote D/K Yes Lead
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 16/05/13 36 44 <1 20 -8
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 05/05/13 31 59 n/a 10 -28
Ashcroft (1) 02/05/13 30 56 2 11 -26
TNS-BMRB/Herald (1) 02/04/13 30 51 n/a 19 -21
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 22/03/13 36 46 0 18 -10
TNS-BMRB/Scottish CND (1) 28/02/13 33 52 n/a 15 -19
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 09/02/13 34 55 n/a 11 -21
Angus Reid/Mail on Sunday(1) 01/02/13 32 47 1 20 -15
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 22/01/13 34 47 <1 19 -13
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (2) 04/01/13 32 50 3 16 -18
YouGov/DC Thompson (2) 24/10/12 29 55 2 14 -26
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 19/10/12 37 45 0 17 -8
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 15/10/12 30 58 n/a 12 -28
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 10/08/12 35 44 0 21 -9
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 17/07/12 36 45 0 20 -9
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 14/06/12 35 55 n/a 11 -20
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 01/02/12 37 42 <1 21 -5
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 29/01/12 39 50 n/a 11 -11

UPDATE: With remarkable timing, the Sun Politics team have put up tonight’s YouGov figures (for Great Britain!) just as I put up a new post. Tonight’s daily poll stands at CON 27%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 16%. The Conservative 27% matches their lowest score this Parliament with YouGov (previously seen just after the locals at the start of the month). Usual caveats apply, it may be a blip and be back to normal tomorrow, but coming after that Survation poll at the weekend it could be we are seeing damage from the latest bout of infighting. Keep an eye on it.


542 Responses to “Scottish Referendum Polling”

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  1. NEILA

    Pity they didn’t try & help him take the true path then.

  2. @ RAF

    Your summary is very good. Hopefully I don’t offend anyone: Islam is essentially a post-Babylonian Judaism with Christian and Totemistic elements.

    But your last paragraph is extremely important. I wish it was repeated and broadcast.

  3. @Roger

    “Of course if you followed that excellent polling site UKPR”

    No, I didn’t spot it, but that’s a YG pdf, and I don’t always surf the in between articles.

  4. Rupert Osborne, futures dealer at City broker IG, said: “The stronger home sales and [falling] jobless claims … fit with the idea that the US economy is approaching a point where a reduction in stimulus is appropriate. This neatly illustrates the irony of the position; traders across the world are openly hoping for poor US data since this keeps the Fed involved.”

  5. @Amberstar – I was quite amused by the stock market falls today, as it follows quite a few commentators in the last few days (like Toby Young) saying what a good job the government is doing because the FTSE is at record levels. A few on here have said something similar.

    Yes @Turk – I do mean you….

  6. Alec

    How do you know it’s not investors taking a profit I certainly have in the last two days on the advice of my broker, that’s the way the stock market works it goes to a record high which everybody who dabbles knows is the time to sell if you’ve invested in the right stock.

    Incidently I’ve never mentioned the stock market in any of my comments before this one, as it bores me rigid, you sure you’ve got the right person.

  7. @Michael Elliot
    “Atheism (as the term is most commonly used) is the *lack* of a certain type of belief, which is quite a different thing from a belief.”

    That depends.

    Hard atheism is the definite belief that there is no God.
    Soft atheism is the lack of belief that there is a God.
    Hard agnosticism is the belief that it is impossible to know whether there is a God.
    Soft agnosticism is saying that you don’t know or care whether there is a God.

    Almost all soft atheists are also in one or both categories of agnosticism. Most of the outspoken (Dawkins-type) atheists would appear to be hard atheists, even if they insist that atheism is a lack of belief. It’s similar to the way some Christians claim not to be religious because they don’t like the connotations of the word.

  8. Old poker adage, ‘ you’ve got to know when to hold ’em, you’ve got to know when to fold ’em, you’ve got to know when to walk and know when to run, don’t count your money when you’re sitting at the table, time enough for that when the dealings done’. That little missive is displayed on the office wall of the NY head of JP Morgan Global Markets. Markets rely on volatility, without it there are no markets, immutability is not a feature of the market, stock market movement is necessary, so don’t make the mistake of thinking that there is any logic at work, it’s simply the nature of the beast.

  9. Alec

    I see having looked it’s not just the UK, it’s stock markets round the world that have fallen our figures are comparable to France and Germany it’s all, because China has released some poor trade figures, lucky I listen to my broker good for her.

    That was the second and last time I will mention stock markets as they operate in there own little international bubble regardless of how the host country is doing so it’s difficult to see how they show if the economy is doing well or not.

  10. GreenChristian,

    “Most of the outspoken (Dawkins-type) atheists would appear to be hard atheists, even if they insist that atheism is a lack of belief.”

    I’d say that “Dawkins-type” atheists would, by and large, judge the existence of a deity as being very improbable. That wouldn’t be in contradiction to their insistence that atheism is a lack of belief, though.

    Laszlo,

    “According to Engels atheism is a form of theism…”

    I don’t think I’ve heard or read that before. Doesn’t make much sense on the face of it, though I guess he had something less silly in mind…

  11. I expect Cameron’s neo-Churchillian statements following the death of the soldier in Woolwich will sweep all the stuff about revolting tory MPs, swivel eyed loons, and Europe from the front pages, leading to a tory surge. well at least a partial recovery in the polls.

  12. @ Michael Elliott

    (Apologies to everyone for the little dialectic logic below – really unimportant for anything we discuss here, but it was called for)

    I guess the statement is in the “From Utopia”… Doesn’t really matter, because it is a basic premise of dialectics.

    What it wants to say, rather valid in my view, that by positing the opposite, you actually acknowledge the original statement (a and minus a has the same absolute value. Minus a is meaningless without a). That is, I don’t believe in God, means that there is God (otherwise you cannot make the affirmative). Atheism is a mere negation of theism (one of the complications is that in English “agonisticism” is often used, but being agnostic means the denial of the ability to know the truth, which is actually a contradictory statement as it states that I know one attribute of the truth that it cannot be known). In addition, such a mere negation does not offer the opportunity to step out of the dichotomy (unmediated statements leave invalid dichotomies behind).

    The proper logical answer is that there is no God (as opposed to “I don’t believe in God”), that is, you stepped out of the original premise of theism, thus you are not an atheist, but a materialist. There are many consequences of this, but anyway. The most important is that you need to build a completely different logical model. The advantage of this is the ability to recognise the belief in God as a social force. It also does allow not only the acknowledgement of “no God” in nature and the recognition of while there is “God” in social life (transcendency to be precise). Dawkins did not get to the second one…

    [Apologies again… But it’s quite late, so hopefully…]

  13. Oops. Michael Elliott, combine some of the stuff I wrote with GreenChristian’s points.

    However, I think, it particularly important to acknowledge the possibility of someone recognising “no God” in nature and then happily accepting “God” in society.

  14. BILLY BOB
    “political missions informed by ideas of a religious utopia are no less dangerous than some of the secular post-enlightnment utopias we have been offered”
    Gray’s thesis is about the concept of a linear time towards a material utopia, progress, development, as against the cyclical social time, renewal, sustainability, risk management in the religious concepts, but also in resource management of half the world’s population. So the debate is close to classic political debate about peasant economies as against state or contract managed market economies. Nasser, Ghaddafi and successive Pakistani and Afghan rulers reigned over societies which were basically the former.
    A serious Muslim thinker in some authority with whom I worked in the eighties said the west would never understand Islam, since it is a religion of the desert. Taking that broadly he meant that Islam, like other religions has its meaning and function within its own context; the confinement of women makes sense in the Swat Valley or in Baluchistan, but that isolated context transfers badly to Karachi, where in consequence Sunni have been bombing and killing scores of Shia Moslems and vice versafor the past sixty years. They would continue to do so towards Shia, or better still, Christians, if we place them in a position to do so in Afghanistan, or London. Stick a label on it and call them Al Qaider or Taliban, but historically there is a misplacement going on which has its roots beyond religion.
    “Black Mass” and Gray’s previous book “Straw Dogs” are short and very readable, and very sound on the origins of religions, and BM parltcularly of the origins of the Iraq conflict.

  15. Good Morning All. LASZLO: Brilliant post. thank you.
    In the Oxford debate last year chaired by Anthony Kenny, Professor Dawkins admitted to Rowan Williams that he should call himself an Agnostoc, rather than Atheist.

    To gasps of astonishment Dawkins admitted that as a philosopher he could not prove that ‘there is no God’. This is close to Anselm of Bec’s argument.

    As you say, a Materialist can have a different world view from a Theist. Darwin’s later book : Descent of Man shows this.

    POLLS.
    Ab amazing 13 point lead.

  16. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd May – CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -34

    USUAL CAVEATS APPLY…

  17. I can’t see how you can decide if God exists unless you first define God.

    If “God” is defined as “the answer to the questions to which we do not (yet) have an answer”, then God exists (as a concept) in the same way that Pi does.

    It seems unlikely that we will ever have all the answers so there will always be an unknown and if we call it God then I don’t care.

    Gives you something to pray to when there is nowhere else to turn.

  18. @Michael Elliot
    “I’d say that “Dawkins-type” atheists would, by and large, judge the existence of a deity as being very improbable. That wouldn’t be in contradiction to their insistence that atheism is a lack of belief, though.”

    I think the fact that they spend plenty of their time vehemently attacking those who believe there is a God strongly suggests that most of them have crossed into strong atheism. Having a belief doesn’t mean that you can’t acknowledge that there’s a small possibility that you could be wrong.

  19. Today’s poll- don’t get excited. Labour are weighted up way more than usual.

  20. I’m just hopping in and out – I haven’t even been lurking because I’ve been avoiding the inevitable discussion of the tragic events of Wednesday.

    But I did notice something in my trend data for YouGov so I couldn’t help but post..

    NickP
    The 30-day weighted average figure for Labour has been at 39.4 for the past 3 days, indicating that the trend for Labour is stabilising around that point (subject to a change in trend and it going the opposite way).
    Con VI is still falling (currently at 30.1).

    But since these are long-run trends, it’s safe to assume that there could be the start of an upward or downward movement that it’s yet to pick up on.
    I just thought it was interesting that Labour seems to be stabilising around 39.4.

    7-Day weighted average for Lab VI has risen to 39.6, but that’s nothing to get too excited about yet. And Con VI has hit 29.2, which is the lowest this parliament.
    Equally the 30.1 for the 30-day trend is the lowest for Con this parliament.

    Obviously these figures are subject to change, with the possibility of economic improvements and UKIP/Tory infighting disappearing from the media.

  21. “To gasps of astonishment Dawkins admitted that as a philosopher he could not prove that ‘there is no God’.”

    God knows why there were gasps of astonishment (did you see what I did there?) – this is the view that Dawkins has always taken, namely that there is no evidence for the existence of God(s) and plenty of evidence for natural explanations of acts attributed to God(s). He has always maintained that if the evidence changes, then so will he.

    @Turk – unless I’m mistaken, you slipped in a mention of the record levels of the FTSE a few days ago in a list of reasons why the economy was looking much better for the Tories. I took note for future reference, but didn’t bookmark the page, so if you want to refute this you’ll have to trawl through your last few days of contributions – I can’t be bothered, as it was just a bit of fun.

  22. More interesting than the ups and downs of the stock market were the reasons. Part of it was to do with poor trade figures from China but the other reason that some economists have talked about was the threat of pulling QE in America.

    I’m happy to admit that while I have some sort of understanding of QE a lot of the repercussions are a mystery to me and probably to most economists as well. However it suggests to me there is some sort of bubble going on which is not based on reality and potentially means the markets are addicted to something that really isn’t healthy for them and is masking another potential crash.

  23. Grrrr ! If I wasn’t anti-EU before then I am now. Looks like they have done for our local village conker knockout comptetition. We still have the annual welly-throwing event but that’s small consolation.

    http://order-order.com/2013/05/23/bonkers-conkers-eu-ban-plan-new-legislation-outlaws-conker-trading/

  24. Ozwald,

    From the EU regulations: “The use of seed in private gardens is not covered by the EU legislation and private gardeners can continue to buy any plant material and sell their seed in small quantities Moreover, it will be clarified that any non-professional (e.g. private gardeners) can exchange seed with other private gardeners without falling under the rules of the proposed Regulation. “

  25. @ Ozwald – you do know that this is guido fawkes messing about dont you?

  26. @Alec

    Yes the stock market has been doing really well for some months now, and those who know how to play it have made a lot of money. There was an expected correction yesterday. So What!

  27. I think it is still too early to see much Woolwich effect in the polls. However we are at exactly the right time for the gay marriage debate to impact the polls. And the result does not look good for the Conservatives.

  28. @Hal & Reggieside

    My post was tongue in cheek!. I just love some of the daft and quirky things which some folk get involved in. In any case it would be pointless for me to enter a conker competition as I usually miss the conker and do myself an injury! I will stick to marbles, much safer.

  29. Think todays polls is a tad high for Labour. If you look at the difference between ABC1’s and C2DE’s and then look at the age cross breaks, it seems a little odd.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8lvxse4f91/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230513.pdf

  30. @TOH – I wasn’t actually making any comment re the merits, impacts of effects of stock movements, only that some others (here and elsewhere) have been citing these as signs that the government has been doing well.

    As it happens, I think there is a lot of sense in the argument that the market highs are illogical and divorced from company performance in the real economy, and are based more on the impacts of QE. If true, this suggests a bubble, and bubbles always burst. The Japanese market has romped to record highs since the bond buying spree Abe kicked off, but they are now seeing bond yield rise, which suggests a disorderly come down in bond prices is on the cards, and this was another of the key reasons why markets started to tumble yesterday.

    I have no doubt that canny folk can make money in all kinds of stock market scenarios, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t seeing artificial bubbles and that when these bubbles burst, they have big impacts on the real economy.

  31. “Today’s poll- don’t get excited. Labour are weighted up way more than usual.”

    What is wrong with “weighting” a sample?

    Isn’t that the right thing to do, to produce a more accurate result?

  32. Two interesting foot notes to todays poll.

    Ukip at 12% in the youngest voters is very high since the last time I looked at cross breakswhen they always had their vote rising with age,

    The second is in Scotland where the Tories are only two pionts behind the SNP.

    I find both figures suprising, but I have not looked at the cross breaks for a while, so this might be a trend or just a single set of figures.

    Anybody been matching these cross breaks?

  33. Snp only 2% above cons. Is crazy.

  34. I posted the comment about the international stock-market from the ‘expert’ because it interested me that ‘the market’ seems to prefer QE to other signs that the real economy of the US is improving vis-à-vis employment etc.

    The switch out of equity must go somewhere – I am talking about significant funds not the buttons invested by individuals who comment here – & it will be interesting to see where it goes.

  35. Oswald
    I think you’ll find that the EU regulation does not cover conkers which have ceased to be viable genetic material, e.g. when they have been stored for two years among your football socks having previously had a hole made with your Dad’s 3.0mm. drill carefully to avoid creating any split in the outer skin and then soaked in polyurethane varnish.
    Anyway, good luck in the tournament.

  36. @amber,

    We could see some interesting things in the market if eventual impact of QE drives inflation, and/or eventual movement of some money out of equities linked to issues with fiat or even wider potential issues with say the derivatives market. Will be interesting to see, as still a lot of money sloshing about. Gold is one potential beneficiary, it’s off about 30% in the last couple of years,

  37. @nickp – ” …when there is nowhere else to turn.”

    You wait for lumbering two-tonne intergalactic armour-plated guardian Dodos from The Fifth Element.

    Priest: Hurry! The wall is closing!
    Mondoshawan: Here is your mission… pass your knowledge on to the next, as it was passed on to you.
    Priest: I-I will do as you command, but please hurry! You still have time!
    Mondoshawan: Time not important. Only life important.

  38. @ Chatterclass

    Today’s poll- don’t get excited. Labour are weighted up way more than usual.
    ————-
    The up-weighting seems to be mainly because of a low number of returns from the London region. The outcome in the London area, after weighting, doesn’t seem unusual but I suppose, as ever, we shall have to wait & see. That said, I think I will get a little bit excited because otherwise, what’s the point of poll-watching?

  39. @ Simon

    Snp only 2% above cons. Is crazy.
    ————–
    Yes, it is unusual but it could be the effect of the referendum & Better Together Campaign.

  40. The Scottish CB is way off the norm for all the parties’ VI.

  41. So we now know the answers to some of my questions:-

    They were both British; of Nigerian descent.
    They were both known to the Security Services.
    They had both converted from Christianity to Islam.

    Adebolajo was exposed to talks & films by extremists at Greenwich University, where he converted & changed his name to “Mujahid”.He was part of Choudary’s flock and recently preached “rambling & intense” lectures outside Poundland in Woolwich, handing out extremist literature.(When doing so he wore white robes & cap Howard-When he butchered Drummer Rigby , he didn’t-it’s a little less simple than you think I fear)

    Both the Security Services & the Police are going to be investigated by a variety of bodies for their conduct in connection with the Woolwich murder.

    Bob Stewart calls for the deportation of all extremist preachers, & to hell with the HRA.

    None of this activity will make the slightest difference.

    Security will say they know lots of things about lots of people-but they can’t follow them all 24/7
    The Police will say they they did a great job.
    The Politicians will say …..blah blah blah…….& change nothing.

    Everyone will say , the Muslim “leaders” have condemned this -so that’s OK.

    In today’s Times, journalists spoke to a Muslim resident of Woolwich who had observed Adebolajo’s rants outside the local Poundland store.
    “Abdullah” told the Times-“He was saying some things that I believed were way out…speaking so passionately about killings.”
    Abdullah took advice from “some brothers” about whether to call the police as “Adebolajo was speaking some things that, if he acted upon them , will cause problems to himself , others and maybe death”.

    They advised Abdullah to report nothing until he saw the man again.

    The next time Abdullah saw him was on tv clutching a bloody cleaver.

    Whilst Security, the Police , and the Politicians go through their navel gazing-what is the Muslim Church going to do……….apart from saying we condemn murder in our name?

    Why did it tell Abdullah not to alert the police about Adebolajo?

    Why did it not send a qualified , accredited preacher to stand next to Adebolajo outside Poundland & explain to the passers by-and to Adebolajo why he was so wrong & deluded?

    Why was it not on C4 & the BBC as swiftly as Choudary-alongside him-telling us not to listen to him?

    Why does it not take steps to ensure that films, presentations, lectures ,tv programmes which misrepresent Islam and/or urge violence in its name are stopped-in Universities & Colleges, in shops , on the internet?

    Why is it not out there , with loud & angered presence , saying do not say these things, do not listen to these things-they are not us-they are wrong?

    Why?

  42. In the yougov poll, there is a lot of weighting going on, I wonder is this has affected the result. ie

    Males 18-24, 20 to 104
    PPI – Others , 140 to 22
    Sun – 133 to 393

    They do seem to be scoring Labour higher and UKIP lower than others.

  43. Colin

    Two loonies butchered a soldier and you want the whole UK and Islamic establishment brought to book?

    There’s a large Muslim community in the UK numbering in millions and few of them get involved in or support this stuff. Did you want the Pope out at the scene every time the IRA blew something up?

    Kneejerk stuff leads to wars in Iraq and/or far right Parties going up in the polls.

    Cool it.

  44. NICKP

    We aren’t on the same planet-let alone page.

    If I responded you would never get to read it.

  45. I would rather not read it.

  46. @colin – I find it rather ominous that you’ve elected to select a Muslim called Abdullah, who heard the rants outside Poundland, asked some brothers about what to do, and then did nothing, as your entry point into a lengthy bout of anguish about Islam and what they are/are not doing to combat extremism.

    This might have merit if it was only Muslims who heard these rants, but I’m assuming a number of Christians, atheists, white people, black people other people etc also heard these rants outside Poundland. We are not, at this stage, aware of whether any of these people called for an accredited vicar, or reported these things to the police, so we could equally set up a lengthy moan about the state of the British white working class and what’s wrong with them as they don’t challenge extremism.

    However, I do get your point regarding the responsibility of Muslims, but I have to say my sense from this is that there are really quite strenuous efforts from most Muslim elements in the UK to combat this kind of thing, including numerous examples of them reporting brothers to the police. You’ve chosen to pick up a TV broadcast, presumably edited, of a single, unverified report into unidentified and unspecified ‘brothers’ on which to base your post.

    I’m also somewhat relieved that these attackers where known to the security services. It would be far more worrying if they weren’t on the radar at all, and I’m sensible enough to know that some attacks are bound to slip through the net – that’s the price we pay for democracy.

  47. ALEC

    In view of your second para-response from me is pointless.

    But I do recommend the Indy article I linked to.

  48. @John Pilgirm
    Thanks for the tip about the polyurethane varnish. Neat.
    I like things which take me back to boyhood! When my daughter found out that i used to be a trainspotter she begged me not to tell any of her friends as she would be ashamed to be known as a ‘trainspotter’s daughter’. !

  49. @Colin

    “Whilst Security, the Police , and the Politicians go through their navel gazing-what is the Muslim Church going to do……….apart from saying we condemn murder in our name?”

    I think that comment (and much of the rest of it) betrays little understanding of how Islam functions as a religion. There is no equivalent of the COE or RC in operation, no diocese, bishoprics or ‘churches’ per se. Mosques are independent from each other. Basically there is no ‘bat phone’ sitting next to the equivalent of a local bishop telling him that some extremist nutter is preaching outside of poundland or iceland for that matter.

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