Long after I should have, I have finally got round to collecting up polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum next year on its own page here (though I’ve put the polls as they stand in this post too). This should include all the polls so far that have asked the referendum question since it was set last year (both before and after the Electoral Commission tweaked it!).

As you can see, there isn’t actually any obvious trend in the polling, each company’s figures seem to be roughly steady. The main variation there is actually between Panelbase, who do regular polling for the Sunday Times, and the polling done by Ipsos MORI, TNS BMRB and other companies, with Panelbase tending to show a much tighter race than the others. One can only speculate what the reasons might be. Panelbase take the slightly strange decision of only including people certain to vote in a Scottish Parliament election in their samples for referendum voting intention, which could have an impact. There could also be a mode effect – Panelbase use online fieldwork, MORI conduct interviews by telephone, TNS BRMB use face-to-face polling (a method that has otherwise all but vanished from British political polling). It is no doubt something we will return to closer to the actual referendum.

  Survey End Date Yes No Wouldn’t vote D/K Yes Lead
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 16/05/13 36 44 <1 20 -8
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 05/05/13 31 59 n/a 10 -28
Ashcroft (1) 02/05/13 30 56 2 11 -26
TNS-BMRB/Herald (1) 02/04/13 30 51 n/a 19 -21
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 22/03/13 36 46 0 18 -10
TNS-BMRB/Scottish CND (1) 28/02/13 33 52 n/a 15 -19
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 09/02/13 34 55 n/a 11 -21
Angus Reid/Mail on Sunday(1) 01/02/13 32 47 1 20 -15
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 22/01/13 34 47 <1 19 -13
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (2) 04/01/13 32 50 3 16 -18
YouGov/DC Thompson (2) 24/10/12 29 55 2 14 -26
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 19/10/12 37 45 0 17 -8
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 15/10/12 30 58 n/a 12 -28
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 10/08/12 35 44 0 21 -9
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 17/07/12 36 45 0 20 -9
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 14/06/12 35 55 n/a 11 -20
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 01/02/12 37 42 <1 21 -5
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 29/01/12 39 50 n/a 11 -11

UPDATE: With remarkable timing, the Sun Politics team have put up tonight’s YouGov figures (for Great Britain!) just as I put up a new post. Tonight’s daily poll stands at CON 27%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 16%. The Conservative 27% matches their lowest score this Parliament with YouGov (previously seen just after the locals at the start of the month). Usual caveats apply, it may be a blip and be back to normal tomorrow, but coming after that Survation poll at the weekend it could be we are seeing damage from the latest bout of infighting. Keep an eye on it.

542 Responses to “Scottish Referendum Polling”

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  1. So, far from there being a sudden tightening in favour of the Nats, the Panelbase poll and its difference from other recent polls was a purely methodological phenomenon? In fact, they’ve had a better score for the Yes camp, back in early 2012 and the difference from the last Panelbase score must be within the MoE.

    I had thought that I had been polled by TNS BRMB. I remember that it wasn’t a familiar polling company.

  2. Occasional notes on Pathological hatred of Cyclists no 54.

    “Police are investigating after a driver apparently boasted on Twitter that she had knocked over a cyclist.
    The tweet was made by a young woman and ended with the comment “#bloody cyclists”.
    It said: “Definitely knocked a cyclist off earlier – I have right of way he doesn’t even pay road tax.””

    Of course most adult cyclists own cars & pay vehicle excise duty; a fact that escapes the more brain dead of the petrol heads.

  3. @ Howard
    What do I know? (While paying tribute to Ken’s hunches, just because he and I can make money does not say that we can predict political ‘events’).

    I think you answered your own question with great success.

  4. Yougov interesting, high UKIP reading for them, I wonder how keen the Libdems will be on PR now seeing as they’ll get 31 seats and UKIP 0 on those readings.

  5. Am I being sober and serious here? Who cares!

    So: to conclude — every single poll produces a “No” vote?

    Yukkh! The nationalism thing (though the Goveians want to redeem it through junior-school mind-bending) has played out.

    Let’s be realistic here. Quite frankly, on present bases, what decent Scot would wish to tie him/herself to [the current government] down south?

    And after Scotland: home rule for Bernicia! And East Anglia! Then, an end to to Wessex hegemony!

    Seriously: Churchill’s proposal (about 1911-12) of a federal constitution was about the best offer going.

    We blew it.

  6. @ AW

    “Usual caveats apply, it may be a blip and be back to normal tomorrow, but coming after that Survation poll at the weekend it could be we are seeing damage from the latest bout of infighting. Keep an eye on it.”

    Should that be a swivelled eye?

    I have to say that after the “loons” comment at the weekend I was very surprised when yesterday’s YouGov barely moved a jot. That just didnt ring true to me at all.

    This YouGov just feels a bit more believable given recent events.

  7. Robbie Alive.

    Thanks very much.

    Most grateful you are paying attention to my posts, especially just as (typically) AW changes the thread.

    I just cannot envisage any factor that would change the Scots referendum outcome in 2014. Neither can I see what difference it would make to English seat outcomes in the 2015 GE. Anyone have an idea how it would?.

  8. Anthony,

    No comments section on the referendum page?


  9. Good Evening All. Just in from an evening out with close friends celebrating full time employment.after eighteen years of searching for it.

    AW: Thanks for veryonteresting polling on the Scottish question.

    Where is Old Nat please? Doesanyone know?

    As to YG polls; seem to be all over the place.

    Except, i tink, for LD vote.

  10. So the best yes is 39% and worst no is 44%.

    Doesn’t look unbridgeable, but thinking of the US elections, probably is.

  11. If the the UK leaves the EU it must need VERY good evidence it’s worth it, otherwise why take the risk. The same applies to Scotland.

    The risk that things go wrong with independence, massively outway any possible benefits. Benefits will never be massive, but the risk of a currency or monetary collapse would cripple Scotland like happened to the PIIGS.

  12. No comments on any “pages” on this part of the site (as opposed to blog posts). Design decision. And it helps stop spam (it takes a while for spambots to find a page. The comments on blog posts automatically close after a fortnight, so there is only a brief while for spambots to find them. Pages stay there for ever, so become spam heaven. You want to see how much spam gets deleted off the constituency guide every day, hundreds upon hundreds of the crap)

  13. @Chrislane

    You must be voting Tory then for getting you a job. lol

  14. @AW

    What is a “Spambot?” and what/why does it spam? Especially on a political site?

  15. Congrats on the job, Chris!

    I will be looking for a full-time job myself soon….am about to move house (and area) shortly and start something up (hopefully!)

    Am excited but very stressed about moving and setting up a business.

  16. Really quite poor poll numbers now for Tories, in more than one poll. Not unexpected, but there is real pressure on their leadership to turn this around. Bad news also for the SNP, who are relying on fear of Tories as a key plank of their campaign.

    @Chrislane1945 – I almost never agree with anything you post, but I’m delighted to hear of your success with the new job. It must be deeply relieving and satisfying, and I wish you well in your new role.

  17. @AW – have a seemingly innocuous post in automod, and as it contains a message for @CL1945, I wondered if it could be saved from purgatory?

  18. David: “Yougov interesting, high UKIP reading for them, I wonder how keen the Libdems will be on PR now seeing as they’ll get 31 seats and UKIP 0 on those readings.”

    Given that PR would yield somewhere in the region of 65 seats for them on 10%, I should imagine that their position is unchanged.

  19. Not so sure about Bill Patrick’s comments. Since January Panelbase have gone from -13 to -10 to -8 – same poll, same methodology.

    Furthermore I think they are right to concentrate on certain to votes. Without question YES voters will be more motivated to get to the polls.

    Read the crossbreaks from the latest Sunday Times poll. The age and gender and party support structure looks very credible.

    This Scottish vote is all to play for.

  20. Simon

    You must be voting Tory then for getting you a job. lol”

    Took the words out of my mouth. (Literally-took the keys from under my fingers)
    You might call me ungrateful but my company’s turnover has doubled since the Tories came to power but I don’t blame them. I believe that it was good business skill on the part of my staff and colleagues. The tories were better than labour, however, that I’ll admit. Our company’s employer satisfaction ratings have gone up and I will attribute some of that to the Tories.

  21. The conservative party has to decide which way it wants to go. Does it;

    1) Move to the right and kick out the(de-list) Pro-europe MP’s.

    2) Move to the centre and let(kick out) the “Right Wing” to UKIP.

    3) Carry on as is. And sink below UKIP or even LD’s in the polls.

    The party can’t keep all sides happy, so needs to decide on the direction before it destroys itself.

  22. “As to YG polls; seem to be all over the place.”

    No they’re not.

  23. Reg

    I have to agree, under Labour for 13 years he couldn’t get a full-time job, but under Tories, he got a full-time job.

    I really think the Tories are trying to repair our economy. They have 2 years, when the economy needs to recover, otherwise I fear they will become extinct.

  24. Its quite remarkable that the tories wil have lost the greater part of the gay vote due to the actions of wel over 100 of their MPs whilst at the same time losing the affection, an probably a lot of the votes, of the 1950s brigade

    Hard to make up really.

    Ed must be thinking “Blimey this is easy! – I haven’t even started yet.”

  25. “I really think the Tories are trying to repair our economy”

    One would imagine so. Problem is most people asked to say precisely what is is they ARE doing would probably reply:

    “I dunno really – cutting stuff and making people redundant I s’pose.”

  26. I think the YES may be more likely to go to the polling station than the NO. Maybe the swing is a soft Dk -No – DK

    What’s Panelbase’s record on similar polls? There aren’t any similar polls are they?.

    Is it going to be a NO vote then? I hope none of those whose wishful thinking deludes them into to predicting a UK Conservative victory will not say it couldn’t be a YES, but it doesn’t look like a YES at the moment.

  27. @Paul

    Ed can just go to Hawaii for the next two years and return as PM.

  28. @Paul

    Ed can just go to Hawaii for the next two years and return as PM.

  29. Simon


  30. I just got myself a couple of rather tasty crunch cream bikkies from a brand new packet – but one of them just had outer bits – no creamy centre !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Has this ever happened to anyone else? It certainly never happened to me under a labour Government.

  31. Typical bankers getting all the cream.

  32. Paul Croft

    Simon probably meant Havant or Havering . These typos.

  33. Paul Croft
    You sure they weren’t cream crackers? No cream in them.

  34. Simon

    Are you saying that in order to save the conservative party it needs to be destroyed?

  35. mister wotsyername

    You are making rather light of my creamless crunchy cream disappointment.

  36. howie

    Paul Croft
    You sure they weren’t cream crackers? No cream in them.

    see my comment to wotsisname

  37. Thing is somewhere, someone has got two lots of cream.

    I am indignant.

  38. @Paul

    Ed is being gifted this election, by the Tory split.

    Ed is winning polls, yet we dont see him, he may as well be on a beach somewhere.

  39. @ChrisLane1945

    Congrats on your recent job success.


  40. Simon

    He’s not daft you know, low profile wins OK. Actually I saw an article about his criticising poor DC. Pushing open doors can have an adverse reaction like falling over unexpectedly.

  41. @ Howard

    Indeed kicking dead lions/pandas/baby seals etc seem to have a bad effect on the British public.

  42. @ Chris Lane1945

    Congratulations! Is being full-time for the later years of your teaching career really important vis-à-vis pensions & such like, as well as for getting you the professional respect which you felt was very important? If so, then extra kudos to you for persevering until you succeeded.

    I expect you’ll even find a good word for the LDs, at least for one, celebratory, day. :-)

  43. Whilst composing my complaint to Fox’s crunsh creams this thought came to me:

    the Cleggster has the perfect opportunity to pull out of the coalition right now. He can say that he admires DC still but finds the tory party and some ministers impossible to work with.He can cite Europe, gay marriage. He can promise to support all sensible measures to turn the economy around.

    In doing so he would, in turn, make it possible for the tory party to get rid of cameron and thus make them a smaller, more right wing party, leaving the lib dems two years [or less depending on how relations with labour go] before an election.

    just possible.

    by the way, i don’t think parties come back from descents like the tories are going through. look at Major, Blair, Brown. Once the “magic” goes its gone for ever.

    Thatcher was an exception through outside events but she lost it in the end. Dissatisfaction can only wait so long.

  44. So what we can also see in these polls that there is an anybody but lefties (shockingly LD are lefties here) pool not only the previously identified anybody but Tory.

  45. RiN

    No, the opposite

    The Tories need to decide where they are going to avoid destruction

  46. @ Simon

    It’s relatively simple: go after the remaining LibDem votes.

  47. @Simon

    “Ed is winning polls, yet we dont see him, he may as well be on a beach somewhere.”

    Well maybe it’d give him time to come up policy which doesn’t involve stringing random words together in a speech.

    Interesting poll though. I have a sneaking suspicion it won’t be the worst our PM sees before 2015.

  48. Looks like Yougov have detected some of the survation UKIP surge here, which encourages one to think that it’s not that much of an outlier. Perhaps they will detect more of it tommorow, if it is there.

    that 11% labour lead is pretty chunky, Cons dipping down below 30% again of late. What’s DC to do? Carry on and hope for the best, pick a direction (left or right), or try his best to keep everyone from the right and centre-right on board? If he were Mrs T and facing Foot, easy, but now, things less so.

    Perhaps it would be better to do this internal wrangling whilst in opposition, preferably if recently heavily defeated so reformists can be enabled more easily?

  49. PAULCROFT………Coincidentally to your creamy dodger story, I once opened a packet of Polo mints, to find, shock horror, mints with no holes in, I was beyond shocked, my lawyers were very supportive and the matter was settled, satisfactorily, out of court. I shall never forget the pain though, and still require counselling from time to time, the NHS is excellent, sparing no expense on my treatment. I blame it on Gordon Broon.

  50. @ Stan J

    There must be a special edition of EM’s speeches and this is what you are watching/listening to.

    I find it a cognitive puzzle when the predisposition paths are closed and thus the information appears to be random redundant signals in the process.

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