TNS BMRB have released their latest poll. Topline voting intention figures are CON 28%(+3), LAB 37%(-3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are from their previous poll a month ago and show the same trend of a narrowing Labour lead and increase in UKIP support that other companies have shown since early April, though the scale of the narrowing is probably mostly a reversion to the mean (their previous poll showed a rather incongruous 15 point Labour lead). Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.


298 Responses to “TNS BMRB – CON 28, LAB 37, LD 7, UKIP 18”

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  1. @Bill

    “I thought it was to carry out the policies in their manifesto.”

    That’s the party’s job; not the government’s.

  2. Statgeek,

    Fair point: the government also has a responsibility to govern wisely and fairly. In fact, in many systems, executive and legislative functions are much more separate than in the UK.

  3. @Roland

    “Tartan Rent A Mob”

    Please do not bring my country’s choice of pattern into the equation. You have no way of knowing the nationality of all the rent-a-mob, and as far as I’m aware they, if they can be categorised, were a left-wing rent-a-mob.

    Aberdeen Donside can generally be described as ‘Aberdeen North’, and that’s as left-wing as Aberdeen gets (although I think the modern Aberdeen North is part of Aberdeen Central in this case).

    Why Farage chose Edinburgh is beyond me. Cameron might as well have chosen Glasgow North East to campaign for a Fife seat, and would have had a similar reception.

  4. the poll lead for Labour is shrinking, it looks bad for 2015

  5. AMBER
    “Do you even know the difference between tolerance & intolerance?
    You really seem to believe that anything you support should be celebrated & anything which you don’t should not be tolerated.
    Either you are deliberately trying to wind people up or you are utterly irrational when writing on this topic.”

    I do not support and have never said that I support UKIP but I have the tolerance to listen to their message. I can then decide if I agree with it or not. I do the same with every other political party, from the BNP to the Communist party. That is tolerance. Thankfully neither of those awful extremes will ever form a government in the UK but they all have the right to put their views forward.

    It seems to be you who are deliberately winding people up and being irrational (as you put it) by seemingly supporting people who are intolerant to others. i.e., they see the way to behave is to simply shout down the opposition and insult them with foul language, both written & spoken. Bullying is clearly easier than proper argument.

    In our society everyone has the right to express their view. The fact that, (it seems), the left do actively encourage the suppression of free speech, is perhaps the reason why I fear any government further left than Tony Blair.

  6. There was only a very short clip of Farage’s “Bannockburn Moment”, but from what I saw there was a tight knot of young men jostling him at less than an arm’s length, shouting “scum” at him and causing sufficient anxiety that the police put him in a minibus.

    I wasn’t there, but the police seldom bundle people into vehicles to spare their feelings. I’d say they were concerned that he was about to be assaulted.

    That’s not protest. That’s thuggery. (Not to mention illegal. In England and Wales at least).

  7. Couper

    I have a downs nephew, so to lie and say ukip would kill my nephew is sick and disgusting.

    How dear you say UKIP p[olicy is to abort “downs” children.

    I feel so ill be your comments, I really hope you appologise.

    I am a tory but think this type of comment is vile.

  8. ‘Acting in the UK’s best interests’ is a policy common to the political parties – they simply disagree as to what those ‘best interests’ are! The idea of national interest is entirely subjective.

  9. denise maddison

    “the poll lead for Labour is shrinking, it looks bad for 2015”
    _______

    I really don’t think anyone thinks/thought Labour would win the next GE. Wrong leader, negativity and weak on policy.

  10. is there a poll tmorrow

  11. ‘I really don’t think anyone thinks/thought Labour would win the next GE. Wrong leader, negativity and weak on policy.’

    The bookmakers – at present – appear to take a different view.

  12. STATGEEK

    “Why Farage chose Edinburgh is beyond me. Cameron might as well have chosen Glasgow North East to campaign for a Fife seat, and would have had a similar reception”
    ______

    I don’t even think Cameron would had got a reception like the one Farage received in Edinburgh had he visited Glasgow North East.

    The Scots don’t like right winged politics and politicians who have generic view of UK politics like UKIP.

  13. Good grief………………………….

  14. GRAHAM

    “The bookmakers – at present – appear to take a different view”
    ___________

    “At Present”… indeed…

  15. This is all jolly productive.

    Going on to actual “stuff”, does anyone know why Government/local Government can’t run schools and we. apparently. need “Academy brokers” ?

    [who can be sued for misconduct…….which is nice.]

  16. They’re currently on 83% probability to take a majority and the Tories are on 1%. That will probably shrink towards the election but as Nate Silver proved in the US, partisan wishful thinking does not beat mathematic reality.

  17. @ Allan Christie

    ‘“At Present”… indeed…’
    Yes, bookies are well known for not taking into account possible future developments as they love to lose money.

  18. STATGEEK
    Blame Prince Albert not me.

  19. @Paul,

    I think the theory is that local authority education committees are considered (by the government at least) to be time-serving, jobsworthy, settle-for-mediocre drudges and that giving schools direct control should energise them.

    The headteachers (or at least the sort of headteachers who throw themselves into union activity) seem to strongly disagree. Which is a bit of a worry, particularly as they are the people who are supposed to be channeling that energy.

    I do think it is rather sad that they chose to be so rude to Gove, however. There are ways of expressing your strong disapproval without being insulting. Especially for highly educated professionals.

  20. @ Neil A

    I wasn’t there, but the police seldom bundle people into vehicles to spare their feelings. I’d say they were concerned that he was about to be assaulted.
    —————
    The Edinburgh police, I am pleased to say, have shown themselves to be really excellent at policing demonstrations & events.

    Therefore, I think you are probably wrong in your assessment that they believed Farage was about to be assaulted. They were not there as his ‘personal protection team’. The Edinburgh police were there to keep the peace (which is their prime objective during demonstrations); they are also very pragmatic. The quickest & easiest way to restore peace was to remove one man, Farage, from the area. So that’s what they did.

  21. That’s not protest. That’s thuggery. (Not to mention illegal. In England and Wales at least).

    -Is it thuggery when you are asked questions over the phone you don’t want to answer?
    Because metaphorically speaking Farage Bundled Himself into the nearest pub when the questions were a little less anaemic than the standard suck up He gets in most interviews.

  22. @Amber

    “The Edinburgh police were there to keep the peace (which is their prime objective during demonstrations); they are also very pragmatic. The quickest & easiest way to restore peace was to remove one man, Farage, from the area. So that’s what they did.”

    Indeed. In some ways it was better for Farage too. If that had gotten out of hand, it might have been “Pub Brawl” in the headlines.

    I’ll remember this incident if any notable politicians are coming to my neck of the woods. Just get a few dozen folk to stand in front of them and shout “Scum!” until the politician gets lifted. In my day, one egg would have achieved the same result (politician exits stage left).

  23. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22564369

    “Of the 150 MPs who responded to a poll for Alcohol Concern, 26% thought their colleagues drank too much.”

    While 74% thought they keep up with the rest.

  24. There were two arrests following the demonstration (one of the men arrested is English, BTW). It’s not clear what the eventual charges (if any) will be. So not thuggery; chanting & holding placards is what people do to show that they are strongly for or against something.

    And it’s not restricted to the left – or has everybody forgotten the fuel blockades which were a protest against the Labour government & the Countryside Alliance’s noisy demonstrations against legislation banning fox hunting?

  25. @STATGEEK et al.

    “Rent-a-mob” is patronizing. It was a small protest organized overnight by anti-racists. No one “rented” them.

  26. NEIL A

    @”I do think it is rather sad that they chose to be so rude to Gove, however. There are ways of expressing your strong disapproval without being insulting. Especially for highly educated professionals.”

    I watched the Q&A session on tv.

    Gove was the model of politeness as usual. He answered every question in detail , and it has to be said was listened to by the audience.

    Each side made their points forcefully & there was no acrimony.

    It was a perfect example of everything that the Rent-a-mob vs Farage encounter was not.

  27. @ Neil A

    “I think the theory is that local authority education committees are considered by the government at least) to be time-serving” etc

    (1) Control of schools is being taken away from elected local authorities & centralised in the hands of quangos — academy managements — accountable only to the Dept. of Educ.Do you think that the control of the police should be given over to non-elected managers solely responsible to the Home Office.

    (2) Most teachers, many headteachers & many parents are opposed to academisation & yet they have no real say in the process.

    (3) For the gross financial scandal that has recently engulfed E-Act, the second larges t academy chain in the country, I refer you to the following link provided by Cloud Spotter. Please read it & assess my “theory” that academy managements are self-serving & vastly prodigal with public money..
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10064084/David-Cameron-rejects-gay-marriage-criticism.html

    (4) Do you think the fact that most schools are currently under the control of Labour councils has anything to do with Gove’s policy of reducing the power of councils over schools?

    (5) Do you think the fact that Gove etc engaged in a ceaseless barrage of aggressive criticism of teachers since May 2010 has provoked them to be rude to him in return.

  28. @ Statgeek

    In my day, one egg would have achieved the same result (politician exits stage left).
    —————-
    Yes, I’d forgotten about the egg thrown at Prescott. The same thing happened to Ed Miliband but he didn’t punch anybody. He just laughed it off.

  29. @ Neil A

    I thought the teachers were more polite to Mr Gove than the police were to Mrs May.

  30. DENISE

    I am sorry-and disgusted-to have to tell you that it does not require UKIP to start aborting Down’s children.

    In 2011, of the 196,000 abortions in England & Wales, 2307 were under “Ground E”- ” that there is a substantial risk that if the child were born it would suffer from such physical or mental abnormalities as to be seriously handicapped.”

    Of those, 512 had Down’s Syndrome .

  31. @robbie,

    I don’t really know enough about school management to have a strong opinion either way. I was just setting out what appears to be the government’s argument.

    On the specific question that I can answer, yes I absolutely believe that the police should be run by unelected managers accountable only to the Home Office. I call them Inspectors, Superintendents and Chief Constables….

  32. @Amber,

    Yes they were indeed. The Police Federation’s behaviour in recent years has been atrocious, and I include the treatment that Jacqui Smith received in that.

    I suppose it’s a factor of the socio-economic status, education and background of low ranking police officers vs headteachers.

  33. @statgeek,

    Of course, throwing an egg at someone is an assault, and therefore also illegal – and thuggery.

    @Amber,

    Even if the police were only acting to prevent a breach of the peace, what form did they think that breach was going to take? Surely having a crowd standing in the street chanting slogans doesn’t breach the Queen’s Peace (if it did there would be quite a few more arrests). I hardly think they expected Farage himself to start throwing punches. That leaves an assault on Farage as the only possible deterioration in the situation that makes any sense to me.

    However it is all a very subjective judgement, particularly given the very small amount of material I’ve seen. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion.

    Personally, whilst I absolutely support the right of our citizens to protest, to demonstrate and to say what they like about anyone they like, I don’t really think there’s any need for abuse, threats and disturbances.

  34. “rent-a-mob” is one of these easily thrown out word groupings that has no meaning iat all f no-one has actually been hired.

    I would say that that happens very very rarely and I doubt if there is evidence produced anyway.

    Its use is calculated to denigrate those protesting as having no real passion about whatever it is they are protesting.

    It should go without saying that violent behaviour and language should not be tolerated in any circumstance – whether it is people who are against racism or for fox-hunting. Ultimately debate and elections finds people out and I’m not a great fan of shouting as a way of making any point – it just makes it louder, not better.

  35. There is a lot of talk here about, weather Ed can lead Labour to victory, or the size of poll lead he needs for an overall Majority.

    I would like to make the point that all of this is irrelevant. What matters in terms of will Labour have a majority.

    What matters is what happens on election day in places like Crewe, Stafford, Chester, Worcester, Cardiff North, Cardiff Central. etc…

    Now bearing in mind that Labour are becoming well organised in these areas right now. And that the Tories are pulling out of seats they would need to win to get a majority, such as Telford. I fail to see how a Tory victory is possible.
    Moreover, in my Own Shrewsbury & Atcham constituency, Labour managed to out-poll the Tories in terms of votes, despite the lower turnout across the board, and despite the fact that it simply isn’t a target seat. – conclusion is that the bookies have it right that we are heading for a Labour majority, and that it is possible that it might be quite a large one?

  36. @The Lorax
    Shouting F off back to F ing England, is a really pleasing slogan for “anti racists” to articulate my friend.

  37. @ Neil A
    “I don’t really know enough about school management to have a strong opinion either way. I was just setting out what appears to be the government’s argument.”

    (1) What you call an argument, I call propaganda.
    (2) Thank you for your clear reply re the police.

    You believe that power should be completely centralised & that local agencies/interests should have no say in the running of major, (partly) locally funded institutions. I don’t. We just have different opinions.

    One final point. Chief Constables are associated with this or county. Under yr centralised system they would be scrapped as county-level administration would be irrlevant. The Met would also be abolished. Correct?

  38. @robbie,

    Yes, I am in favour of a Police Service of England and Wales (or possibly seperate ones for England and Wales, if that suits the Welsh better).

    In general I am with the SNP on this. The advantages of nationwide command structures for things like policing and firefighting outweigh the advantages of having small, parochial organisations that “respond to local needs”.

    People need the police to fight crime, and the fire brigade to put out fires, wherever they are.

  39. @ Allan Christie
    “The Scots don’t like right winged politics”
    I am a scot and I usually find that the BNP is described as a right wing party. I don’t know how you describe it?

    @Dan
    Neither my wife or I are racist. We employ two second generation Poles as maids, as well as my business having an Asian warehouse manager. That does not mean I agree with immigration. I believe that it should be put to an immediate stop not just a cap. If you want to see why I suggest you see some areas of Glasgow, Birmingham and other such cities. I have to travel through them whenever I go to some of our premises in the south.

  40. Whatever the pros and cons are of Gove as education boss I am glad that I am a governor of a private school rather than a state school.

  41. @ Neil A

    Even if the police were only acting to prevent a breach of the peace, what form did they think that breach was going to take? Surely having a crowd standing in the street chanting slogans doesn’t breach the Queen’s Peace (if it did there would be quite a few more arrests).
    ——————–
    It’s not the Queen’s peace in Scotland; it’s the peace of the citizens. The Edinburgh police were not reacting to the situation deteriorating. It was about the police having to balance the ‘competing’ rights of two groups of citizens, not about them enforcing a single, unalienable right of one group. In their judgement, the citizens who were demonstrating had exercised their right to protest for long enough to make their point; & they were now becoming an unjustifiable inconvenience to other citizens who were trying to go about their business. So it was now time to restore the peace (in the context of a demo or event, this means get things back to ‘normal’ not that there was an arrest-able breach of the peace event happening or about to happen).

    Therefore the Edinburgh police, having made a judgement call, had to make the ‘action’ decision: should they attempt to break up the demonstration which would have taken considerable time & persuasive effort on their part; or should they remove Farage from the area, thereby removing the focus of the demonstration so that the protestors would all trot off peacefully?

    IMO, They made a fair judgement, balanced the ‘competing’ rights of Scottish citizens & acted appropriately.

  42. @Roland Haines
    I remember the first time I came on UKPR I came on due to the fact that I was particularly annoyed by a comment of Paulcroft. I had a heated debate with him and a few others but we finally managed to come to a peaceful conclusion.

    Point of post: Paulcroft seems to naturally annoy people.

  43. new thread

  44. @Neil A

    “Of course, throwing an egg at someone is an assault, and therefore also illegal – and thuggery.”

    Yes, but throwing an egg at a politician is fair enough. Note that I say ‘an egg’, and not eggs. See it as a kind of reward for their delivery of their promises.

  45. reg

    “Point of post: Paulcroft seems to naturally annoy people”

    Thanks Reg – shall I put you down for a “maybe”?

  46. NEILA

    @”That leaves an assault on Farage as the only possible deterioration in the situation that makes any sense to me.”

    If you watch the coverage-you see Farage get into a taxi-with police surrounding him, and the crowd shouting & jabbing fingers at him.

    The taxi driver says something to the police & Farage gets out again. He speaks to the police , shrugging his shoulders, & they cart him off in their vehicle.

    A reasonable interpretation might be-taxi driver refuses the fare for fear of an attack on his vehicle.

    Leaving the police to protect Farage from an assault.

  47. @ Neil
    “People need the police to fight crime, and the fire brigade to put out fires, wherever they are.”

    A fire is a fire wherever it burns.
    But the lingusitic abilities, ethnic composition, class-background, parental & home circumstances, religiosity, of schoolkids differ by locality.
    I gave some talks in a S. Mancs primary school. The classes were 95% non-white, some kids learning English from scratch. I would like local authorities with local knowledge to have the major say in how such schools are run, rather than a centralised machinery which, judging by its propaganda, has no conception of the pressure the teachers are under & what such schools need & can achieve.

  48. NEIL A
    “The advantages of nationwide command structures for things like policing and firefighting outweigh the advantages of having small, parochial organisations that “respond to local needs”
    These are not mutually exclusive structures. On the contrary, the effectiveness of a nationwide command structure would be its adaptation to local or regional characteristics and needs: delegation, or in a wider international setting, subsidiarity, in Eurospeak. A lot of the debate here is about how, by what expression of choice, that adaptation or delegation takes place, e.g. by contract in the market, or by administrative control and public consultation, in the public sector, down, for example, to parent-teacher meetings in schools, or police-community consultations in urban policing.
    ………………………………………….
    “Rent-a-mob” is not just patronising; it is an intended falsehood. A small group of activists, whether they shout or shake their fists, or just hold up placards, are not a mob; and they are not rented. Within our democracy, and others, they are exercising a freedom of expression, often in the context of deliberate failure of disclosure on the part of organised political movements, which hits the headlines and makes a worth while and necessary point.

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