Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, with topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 13%(-2). The three point Labour lead is the lowest we have seen in any poll since a ComRes poll last September (conducted during the Conservative party conference) and the lowest MORI have shown since April 2012.

All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).

UPDATE: As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.

UPDATE2: Full tabs are here. Greens on 6%.


400 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. PAUL
    “Why hasn’t medical science come up with a method for getting pain killers down to one’s knees?”

    Tried iboprufin – Ibul–ve – ointment? Plus paracetemol, gives them a bit of a helpful reminder of who’s boss.

  2. RICH
    “you can’t criticise the Tories for everything”

    OH YES WE CAN.

    Rained again today – it used to be sunny in the ole days.

  3. Thanks JP – nothing works.

  4. No poll tonight?

  5. no tweet = no great tory/ukip news usually but its all messy now so very hard to predict anythiing.

    probably not much movement tomorrow a.m.

  6. @JP

    Well with the proviso that I’m not a doctor, Problem is that with oral meds, to get the required strength can mean nasty side effects. Anti-inflammatories like ibuprofen and aspirin can give ulcers, Tylenol can damage the liver, and there’s another one I can’t remember the name of that can cause nausea and stuff.

    The next step up is injections…

  7. Is Sun guy still out over the pond?

  8. “there’s another one I can’t remember the name of that can cause nausea and stuff.”

    Cucumber.

  9. Philip Hammond did appallingly in tonight’s Question Time. Charles Kennedy probably came out ahead, but that Labour guy was good too.

    It does seem that large sections of the Tory party can’t figure out where they stand on anything, and while they have two years before an election to sort it out, that length of time only helped Labour between 1995 and 1997.

  10. Watched Sturgeon/ Moore debate on livestream.

    Big win for the nat I would say.

  11. From the soon to be memetic clip, Michael Gove does not seem to be at all popular, either: https://vine.co/v/bEX7rgv2hpX

  12. “Cucumber.”

    ———-

    I don’t think you’re taking this seriously…

  13. Mike Smithson [email protected]

    It’s being reported that Ukip has won the Rawmarsh by-election in Rotherham taking the seat from LAB. No details yet.

    Martin Lipton Martin Lipton [email protected]

    @MSmithsonPB UKIP 1143 Lab 1039 Con 107 BNP 80 Trades Unions against Cuts 61 LibDem 27 (!!!)

  14. Mike Smithson [email protected] 2m

    CON win the deferred Somerset County election in Coker. In 2009 this was LD so a CON gain. Ukip in 3rd place

  15. Mike Smithson [email protected] 2m

    Coker Somerset CC result:- Con 1303 LD 1079 UKIP 702, LAB 195, GRN 165. Turnout 44.33%.

  16. Proof Labour also have a problem re:UKIP. Complacency maybe?

    Or, just perhaps, Labour are struggling because they are one of two protest parties.

    Previously, when CON was in power, it was Lab or Lib when voting for change, and Lab probably seems a more sensible choice for the majority. Now, Ukip is a real protest party with momentum behind them. Lab is almost not a protest vote, it’s kind of a ‘same owd, but slightly different from the current bunch’.

    Very generalised of course, but possible?

  17. Not perhaps as riviting to some as English local by elections but first set piece debate of Scottish referendum is awarded by the journalist panel on STV as a clear victory for the YES side.

    Perhaps of some significance?

  18. Labour won a seat from the Tories in Weymouth and Portland. It’s not all bad news for them.

  19. @MOG

    “the plural of anglicised panini is paninis.”

    No, the plural of anglicised panini is toasted sandwiches.

  20. I think if the YES side are getting themselves heard on national TV etc. they’ll start to gain ground. The most difficult thing for movements such as this to do is find a voice.

  21. Watch the Scotland Tonight debate and would put Nicola ahead of Michael Moore, but not by that much so know knockout blows from either side.

    The one part I thought Nicola got wrong was that she asked Moore why Scotland has to put up with policies it didn’t vote for or support and then let him talk about all the things the coalition was doing right.

    She should have made him address the issue of the democratic deficit.

    Peter.

  22. Peter

    Saw your tweet and so watched the second half again.

    This was pretty comprehensive win for Nicola.

    Hopefully shape of things to come. I think TV could be big bonus for YES.

  23. Ex Pat,

    Like a I said I thought “Yes” came out best but it wasn’t a walk over.

    A lot depends on how long the “No” camp try to keep up this “we’re not telling” game.

    If the “Yes” side keep giving details and the other side don’t then they will start to come across more and more as obstructive.

    As we get closer to the actual referendum and the salience of the issue rises that may well count against them.

    It is good to see the debate as the way the issue is normally covered is shaped by the politics of parliament so for every SNP statement you get one each from Lab, LibDem and Tory.

    That’s not media bias but rather that the news medias political coverage is geared to UK. Political realities and balance so all parties in Westminster get their say.

    It is similar with the LibDem’s, given their Holyrood showing they shouldn’t get anywhere near the air time they do, but the do because of their historic performance at Westminster.

    One on one debates will hopefully help to break out of that.

    Peter.

  24. One of my earliest memories is of being ill before the 1948 NHS.

    In 1974 I was part of the management team responsible for a hospital which was recognised then to be the worst hospital in Scotland.

    I met at that time a GP who once made an emergency house call to a patient by swimming from one island to another.

    Last year I had a triple bypass in what may well be the best hospital in Scotland.

    The woman I love has shared my bed nearly every night for half a century, but not last night. She was in the same hospital. I miss her when she is away even for a few hours.

    This morning she got a titanium hip joint. By noon she was back in the ward. In the two hours that I was there this afternoon, ten staff, including the German anaesthetist and Spanish registrar visited her to do what they do.

    This evening she was telling the grandchildren all about it.

    The hospital gets its pick of the best junior doctors because they want to put it on their CV. Staff of all sorts are proud to be working there, even more so to be trained there.

    A staff nurse told me that morale was good. (I already knew that). I told him that morale was high because the hospital was doing good work, and that the hospital was doing good work because morale was high.

    It is always so.

    When I was in the hospital, my wife went to a family birthday party and was seated between two women who had been at school with Fred Goodwin and did not share his opinion of his own self worth.

    My surgeon doesn’t need a knighthood.

    As frequently as he goes in to work, he discharges a patient who thanks him, sometimes to the point of embarrassment, for extending their life. Three or four times a year he has to tell someone that their relative has not survived.

    Staffing levels are high. They have all the equipment that money can buy, but also use techniques that cost nothing.

    My wife’s surgeon said a MRI scan wasn’t necessary, but offered to get one anyway to reassure the patient. Now the marginal cost with staff in post isn’t much, but the charge in America for what I had would be more than the equity in our house. (Half as much in Canada)

    We will get our travel costs refunded if they exceed £10.00 and that could have included B&B in an on-site four star hotel if it had been needed

    Anecdotal all this may be, but I think I can understand better than most if not all here, the value of the Scottish NHS.

    I have told my GP in the presence of my wife that in no circumstances whatever will I accept private medicine.

  25. @John Dick
    I just wanted to say that I found your musings very moving. My best wishes to your wife.

  26. I have a feeling that Scotland will vote “No”, but keep on voting SNP (maybe more Holyrood than Westminster).

    The possibility of Devo-max seems to be the key to the whole thing, but is it an impossibility, given we now have a Yes/No deal?

    My second greatest fear is that the country vote “No”, and the Westminster politicians take it as ‘business as usual’. I think Scottish politics and indeed Scottish society could become quite a grim place; divided and let down on all sides.

    My greatest fear is “Yes” vote with the independent Scotland being welfare state or welfare state ‘max’. I find it hard to imagine an Independent Scotland being able to wean itself off the welfare system with the SNP (or it’s post-independence state/successor) and Labour trying to outbid one another for the welfare-class* votes in the inner cities.

    *For want of another description – those who rely on the state more than most.

    Even the Westminster Conservatives are upping the tax thresholds, ring-fencing the NHS (apparently), and generally trying their best to occupy as much of the left of centre as they can. Not that such ideas are bad, but the whole system is too welfare-dependent imho. Such is modern politics; policies before principles. Short-term sound-bites before long-term sense.

  27. Statgeek,

    Scottish politics can be misleading: it’s true that there is a grim uniformity of basic philosophies across the SNP, Labour and Lib Dems, but their principles have to be distinguished from their policies, e.g. the SNP have effectively delivered a flat tax cut in the form of the council tax freeze.

    Also, if you actually look at issue by issue polling, people in Scotland on average aren’t significantly less right-wing than in England. The fact that many posh Scots in Hillhead and Aberdeenshire vote for the SNP, Lib Dems and Labour is similar to how many not-so-posh Englishfolk vote Tory in the South; a lot of it has to do with valence issues and group-identification rather than identifying with particular policies.

    For example, the absence of tuition fees on Scottish students has little to do with popular opinion in Scotland and everything to do with the influence of student groups on left-wing parties in Scotland, which is why the SNP forget their opposition to tuition fees when it comes to English students. Similarly, many voted Tory in 1992 yet opposed the privatisation of the railways. People vote for the party they want, which probably doesn’t match their views on every last issue unless they engage in doublethink out of loyalty.

  28. In other words, we’ll tolerate cuts and the elimination of universalism, provided they’re done by a caring social democrats with ordinary Scottish accents, but woe-betide the hardline socialist with the plummy voice and the pretentious manner! Image matters. That doesn’t mean that an independent WOULDN’T be a welfare-state disaster area; it just means that one can’t say it’s inevitable given Scotland’s political dynamics.

  29. PAUL-

    Well, cucumber, yes perhaps – and I know you are not a drinks man – but L-ms-p with hot water and an equal measure of brandy or whiskey – a good blend will do – don’t waste your Laphroaig – repeated every half hour, is a very powerful pain soother.
    CARFREW
    You rub the Ib-l–ve onto the knee, don’t swallow it. Knee ulcers are quite uncommon.

  30. @JP

    Well if he’s even tried cucumbers it’s safe to say he’s probably tried everything, but isn’t the cream more for muscle pain? Dunno whether it’s effective if it’s the joint. Anyways, you can try rubbing his knee if you want, I’ll give moral support by thinking about something else entirely. Good luck, make sure someone knows where you are, especially if he asks you stay to hear one if his pomes….

  31. @paulcroft

    Paul…
    Some of the things I use to help relieve pain…
    I do use doctor prescribed meds for pain, including Ibuleave max, but even they do not give relief on bad days…
    So along with meds (pain killers) I use…
    Heat pads, small microwavable bean bags that I place on effected area (they pretty much wrap around my knees). Be careful of the heat too hot and you burn I use non scented black bag… Amazon has quite a choice
    Tens machine (I have 4 of these little buggers) the 4 pad dual chan ones(( from a well known chemist similar to shoe) but other chemists do have their own brands), they take a little getting used to, as what they do is scramble the nerves with electric pulses so the signal of (I am in pain) is scrambled as well, you have to try moving the pads around to find the best place, but they will work as a distraction at first but they do work for short periods (a few hours)…

    I have been known to use tens at night set the timer and fall asleep with them running… still does not stop you waking up and finding your joints seized and painful again, but at least I can sleep 4-5 hours, again Amazon have a good choice (and yes Paul I use all four tens machines at once, but read instructions well…and never cross the chest with pads)
    I did try the joint specific pads (knee), but I prefer the 4 pads and place where I feel they need to go…

    If you go to tens… rechargeable batteries are a must, unless you pay the big bucks to get mains tens very harsh/strong (not for mobile use, where the small ones you can put on and could go shopping etc)

    Good luck J

  32. @Tojim

    Is it arthritis? Have you tried anti-biotics?

  33. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 16th May – CON 31%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%; APP -38

  34. UKIP leader Nigel Farage had to find refuge in a pub after he was swarmed by angry protesters as he left a press conference.

    When he later left the Canons’ Gait pub in Edinburgh’s historic old town and was escorted into a police van, protestors chanted “scum, scum, scum”.

    ———-
    Oh Flower of Scotland!

  35. Reading the FT this morning, more economic optimism about. Looking much better, as are the polls.
    Did anybody see QT last night. There was the assistant editor of the FT on, and I found one thing really striking that she said. About 5 years ago she helped chair a discussion with various concerned elements about the amount of tax big companies pay, but nobody was interested, neither the Govt or the media, which you would assume means left wing media. Does this sometimes show how the Conservatives get it tougher on these issues over Labour? I actually think it does.

  36. Result from the Rotherham council by-election:-
    UKIP 1143
    Labour 1039
    Conservative 107
    BNP 80
    TUSC 61
    LD 28
    ___________

    Ed must go.

  37. @Allan Christie

    “Ed must go.”

    Yep, that would make all the difference. As soon as he went and was replaced by ???, newspapers like the Daily Mail and The Sun would welcome the replacement and not write anything negative about him/her, Labour’s ratings would soar to 50% (at least) and UKIP would be finished. And a brave new world would beckon.

    It’s all Ed’s fault.

  38. RICH

    @”Reading the FT this morning, more economic optimism about. Looking much better, as are the polls.”

    It begins to have that feel Rich-the first bit anyway-I don’t detect much dramatic change in the Polls.

    Times front page today about Cons planning to split from LDs sooner than planned-minority administration.

    Could be an interesting year.

  39. @john B Dick

    you live well on our money.

  40. @ Allen Christie

    It is reported that the Labour candidate wasn’t particularly popular. Looks like local influence, but I cannot verify it.

  41. @ Rich

    Did you mean the main headline in today’s FT: “The budget black hole at the heart of Osborne’s finances”?

  42. @laszlo,

    I read that over breakfast, that’s nothing to do with economic green shoots, it’s just some ministers, Hammond and the environment one, allegedly not coming up with the additional 2015 cuts required by GO. Personally, with growth returning, maybe Osbourne can trim the £11.5bn target…

  43. @wolf

    “Our money.”

    Please elaborate on who YOU think owns the money concerned.

  44. @ Rich

    I know – just it was a nice contrast with what you wrote.

    I thought, compared to earlier this week FT was less upbeat today.

  45. Coalition divorce most likely in the Autumn of 2014, but will Labour let the Lib Dems back on the opposition benches. At the moment Dennis Skinner is sat where the LD leader in opposition would have sat. In a fight between Clegg and Skinner, I would pick the ‘ Beast of Bolsover’, even though he is 81.

    As for polling, I am a bit confused by them at the moment. The headline figures show about an 8% lead for Labour, with the Tories static at about 31%. But when you look at some of the samples e.g. ABC1 in today poll, it shows that the Tories may be doing a little better, perhaps as confidence in the economy returns, in some areas of the country. Now it is no good for the Tories if the south of Englands economy is doing better, with voters returning to them, if the rest of the country is not enjoying the same.

  46. Rich
    Until growth returns at least to trend and until pay rises exceed inflation the budget deficit will go up not down.

    Neither of these are predicted until after the next election.

    No doubt the Tories and their Right Wing Media Supporters will be pushing the “green shoots” case but frankly it’s a bit hollow when the average fall in family income over the 5 Years in Office will be in excess of 15%.

  47. @Rich, John Pilgrim

    I think you must have missed my first statement on this.

    Yes, while the NHS funding has been “Ringfenced”, saying something is “Ringfenced” is a political statement no more or less.

    In practical terms, the NHS’s total budget has been frozen in real terms, with increases that barely match inflation.

    In *operational terms*, the NHS’s budget was substantially decreased. This is due to the one-off costs of reorganisation for the commissioning reforms. However, this is also due to social care costs provided by the local government budget being transferred to the NHS budget. Working out to a ~1% diversion of NHS spending to local government social care, and a ~2% diversion of spending between 2012 and 2013 to the structural reforms.

    I suggest that the transfer the NHS paying part of local government’s social care budgets may be a significant stretch of “ring fencing”.

  48. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has described protesters who besieged him in an Edinburgh pub as “fascist scum”.

    -You couldn’t make it up!

  49. Jayblanc

    My wife’s own Central London Trust has been required to make “savings” of over £200 million over 5 Years this amounts to a cut in real terms of around 10%

    This is a Flagship Trust for the NHS with World renowned research and often the best clinical outcomes in the UK and I have no doubt the situation is worse elsewhere.

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