Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, with topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 13%(-2). The three point Labour lead is the lowest we have seen in any poll since a ComRes poll last September (conducted during the Conservative party conference) and the lowest MORI have shown since April 2012.

All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).

UPDATE: As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.

UPDATE2: Full tabs are here. Greens on 6%.


400 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. “Only 22% of the public can correctly name their own MP research published on Wednesday has revealed”
    ……

    In Scotland and in particular West Central Scotland most voters think their MP is a Monkey in a “Red Rosette”

    “The head of the research team, Professor David Nuttsack of Glasgow University said, “it’s been a long-held postulate that when voting Labour in a traditionally red constituency, there is absolutely no rational thought given to the decision. We tested this hypothesis in a two-stage research programme, focusing on the Glasgow North-East contituency and culminating in the by-election process yesterday.

    “There’s an old adage that one could shave an ape, stick a red rosette on its arse and it would still get more than half the votes. We therefore did exactly that – we picked up a monkey from Edinburgh Zoo, put it in a suit and got him selected as the prospective replacement for Michael Martin”

  2. David Nuttsack? Lol

  3. carfrew

    “Panini’s” is always seen with an apostrophe so, is restaurants use it it must be correct.

    Breaking news: Beckham joins UKIP.

  4. UK Image Project.

    A project to promote moisteriser use in UK men.

  5. @BlueBob,

    So the polls are narrowing and voters are more positive about the economic future.
    As long as the Conservative back-benches do not start to bang on about europe we could see further in-roads on the Labour lead…oh wait..

    ***************

    So true. There is a great opportunity here for the Conservatives, but I just wonder whether some of these back benchers actually get it. The economy is improving, exporters are doing well, the FTSE is roaring, the outgoing bank of england governor has effectively doubled the growth forecast, and we have a cracking replacement coming in. Will be frustrating if the focus moves off the improving economy.

  6. @Paul

    Well the proprietor offered me it cheap, so he could spell it any way he likes far as I’m concerned. Tasted nice enough, either way. People keep asking me for my lighter though. People smoke, but no one has lighters any more except me it seems…

  7. @Carfrew

    “Because it is obvious that leaving data out can skew results unless you have a good reason it won’t. Which you don’t.”

    I think that leaving in outliers skews results more than taking them out. That’s a good reason, don’t you think?

    “And no matter how many other questions you ask me, that won’t change until you come up with a reason…”

    Reason provided. Over to you.

  8. carfrew

    Jolly interesting lighter story: have you considered writing as a career?

  9. @Rich

    Some people don’t care much about the economy or even getting re-elected. They want to preserve or recapture their idea of what Britain should be. And to them it’s no use if they get re-elected or the economy improves if things they consider more important have gone down the pan In their eyes…

  10. Re cafe and greengrocers apostrophes, what I find really weird is a whole string of edible plurals with just a selected few deemed to require one. It seems as though they don’t understand the function of the letter S at all.

  11. PAULCROFT
    carfrew
    “Jolly interesting lighter story: have you considered writing as a career?”

    —————

    Not yet, but I’m learning from you all the time Paul. Eg about the poppoes. I’m on tenterhooks wondering what happens next. Do you take them for a walk again?

  12. Crofty
    Oh please give us some amusing examples’.

  13. @Statgeek

    Well obviously you think that or you wouldn’t do it. I just wondered what the reasoning was. Why you think that’s the case…

  14. ewen

    “Crofty
    Oh please give us some amusing examples’.”

    Of wot in tikkler? Dunno that I can at the mo’ mind you as I have my chronic fatigue syndrome back and that is not as funny as you would expect.

    I think I got tired last night larfing at oe Roley’s brilliantly ironic and funny post.

  15. “Not yet, but I’m learning from you all the time Paul. Eg about the poppoes. I’m on tenterhooks wondering what happens next. Do you take them for a walk again?”

    There’s itte evidence of brilliance to support that thought CF.

    As for the puppoes, like me – and luckily – they don’t like the rain.

    “Tell us again Daddy about the sun, when you had a labour government.” they woof.

    “Rite Toe puppoes” I reply: “gather around the fire on this chilly summer evening and…………”

    They fall asleep in a warm glow.

  16. itte is german for little

  17. Yes, very good Paul. I do a casual comment about a lighter and to you that’s a wonderful opportunity to play the literary critic.

    (Ironically, I did get offered a book contract once. But the NHS intervened amongst other things…)

  18. Watching a load of young Scots chanting “Scum, scum, scum” at Farage does little for their own image.

    I think language like that almost always says more about those using it than those on the receiving end of it

  19. carfrew:

    It actually wasn’t lterary criticism – just a light joke.

    Well – a lighter joke to be accurate – but either way, as I hadn’t thought you were aiming for the Booker prize with the comment I hadn’t thought you would be upset by mine.

    I think it has the potential to be the start of a spy thriller but, as with all my literary ideas, I shall just leave it there along with The Adventures of Percy Penguin – a near classic ….. just needed writing, illustrating and publishing.

  20. You do make l laugh PaulCroft!

    l too suffer from chronic fatigue syndrome,due to Prostate cancer and its treatments.
    (All of you boyos* out there in UKPR land SHOULD get a Prostate Specific Antigen test,if you are coming up to 50…Prostate cancer kills around12000 men a year in the UK,the same mortality rate as Breast cancer and yet no automatic screening for us blokes).

    *yes, even Reg of the BNP

  21. Ewen

    My dad died @ 54 after a long battle with Bowel Cancer. I would rather not have a test, as I dont want to know. Maybe i’m stupid after all. Or maybe i’m just scared.
    And I dont want to approach a Dr and for them to say “you’re being paranoid” ie lack of education out there.

  22. @Paul

    I wasn’t upset by it, since it was just sarcasm really.

  23. Dan
    Sorry to hear about your Dad,of course the choice is yours as far as tests are concerned,Prostate cancer is a funny one though ‘cos it’s the only cancer ,as far as l am aware, that has an easy,non intrusive test that gives early warning,and therefore gives you options.

  24. Here is the link to Farage in Edinburgh on the BBC;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22562394

    Don’t recognise anyone personally but you never know, although this tends to be more usual for the SSP or the AFL rather than the SNP.

    Peter.

  25. @Paul

    I wasn’t upset by it, since it was just sarcasm really.

    No it wasn’t: had it been you could have been upset I spose.

    I was just amused by its irrelevance and the way you dropped it in,

    Written language is so much more difficut to nuance than spoken language innit?

  26. @ PaulCroft

    Maybe it tells less about Farage… But this was the way in which Mosley was stopped before and after the war – just at a larger scale, so my problem is with the 50 odd people. Who knows what their slogans say about them. Would have been more confident if larger number echoes them. Actually, it seems they were rather peaceful.

    Anyway, from UKIP radicalism, it surprises me that he was surprised.

  27. Dan

    Though I am not a Dr I can guarantee not knowing you have something will not stop you having it.

    Get yourself checked: Gps are far more irritated by people who don’t – for whatever reason – than those who do.

    I llike to se my GP at least once a week for a full check-up.

    Paul

    ps That was an exaggeration – I sometimes just go fortnightly. Anyway, serious advice, get checked and sleep peacefully.

  28. @Carfrew @Statgeek

    It can be correct to leave out outliers (although it is always preferred to transform the data in such a way that they are no longer outliers. But you can’t simply say that a point is an outlier, you have to have some robust basis for labeling a datum as an outlier.

    @Carfrew

    Paninis and and panini’s are both wrong. Panini is the plural, the singular is ‘panino’.


  29. Paninis and and panini’s are both wrong. Panini is the plural, the singular is ‘panino’.”

    Are clever people really supposed to be posting here?

    I shall ask for a panino down at the Nest tomorrow and see what they say.

  30. I don’t know about a panini, but I had Belly of Pork as a main tonight, and it cost £26…

  31. Farage will be delighted with what happened earlier.

    Poll predilictions for tonight?

    CON 31 LAB 40 UKIP 14 LD 11

  32. pS, anyone see the Daily Politics today?

    Diane Abbot was rubbish. Mahwinney came across a dinosaur – seen and done it all before, but just sadly out of touch with 2013.

  33. Well you must be very amused at your own posts then Paul.

    Anyway, I think you’ve squeezed the pips out of this one Paul, let’s move on.

    —————-

    @Robin
    Well I suppose you’re right, it’s Latin after all but from my admittedly lowbrow perspective, it said panini on the wrapper, and I was just happy they had some left since students are revising and when they are revising they are like locusts, and the guy who runs the place is Italian, and I’m not going to correct him when he’s giving it me cheap. He could call it a lawnmower if he liked, and I would be just fine with that, so long as it’s toasted bread with piri piri chicken or whatever.

  34. cf

    “Well you must be very amused at your own posts then Paul. ”

    Nice.

  35. Anyone ever wanted to know what Paul Croft does/did for a living?

    Here he is in action.

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01356/cane_1356044c.jpg

  36. @jack r,

    Used to see a lot of abbot on that late night show with Portillo, and it always struck me how even handed and unbiased Portillo was, where as I found her very ideologically driven. Just my own opinion.

  37. Unless I’m very much mistaken, that isn’t our estimable Paul Croft, but the actor Jimmy Edwards (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Edwards ) in his character from “Whack-O”

    rgdsm

  38. @PeterCairns

    I imagine it was a short-term alliance of anyone who stand to lose if UKIP gain any popularity, with the usual Edinburgh or Glasgow rent-a-mob.

    I wonder what the good folk of Scotland would make of a similar reception in London for Salmond.

  39. Statgeek,

    “I imagine it was a short-term alliance of anyone who stand to lose if UKIP gain any popularity, with the usual Edinburgh or Glasgow rent-a-mob.”

    I can’t agree with that really, yes there is a militant element in Scottish politics particularly on the left but there is a long tradition of actively opposing the BNP and the likes of the EDF.

    Part of being to the left of most of the UK particularly on places like Glasgow is that anything even vaguely racist is like a red rage to a bull.

    On that basis This might well be, and seen as, an over reaction but I don’t think it had anything to do with fear of losing votes to UKIP.

    Peter.

  40. The Farage stuff was on the news. Not that I would vote UKIP, but do these protestors actually want a broad political spectrum and freedom of speech?, or do they want a one party system left of centre?

  41. Has anything happened today?

    I’ve just crept out from under the horror image provided by @Paulcroft from last night of Nicholas Soames and Eric Pickles colliding in the Large Hadron Collider.

    Couldn’t face the world for a few hours while I wrestled with that one.

  42. @Robin

    The plural of panino may be panini in Roma, Venezia, Livorno, or Firenze.* In London the plural of anglicised panini is paninis.

    * For non-travellers, this is Rome, Venice, Leghorn, and Florence.

  43. No polls today. Getting withdrawel syptoms.

  44. Ukip are the least of scots worry. Nat front standing in. Aberdeen donside

  45. Who woud win a “Mister Smug” debate betweem Salmond, Galloway and Farage?

    I’d put it down as a three-way tie with all of them contesting the result.

    Alec:

    Welcome back to the real world where, as you rightly guessed, sod-all has happened, although, on a personal level, despite my knee is giving me ole gyp [mustn’t grumble] I have still managed to come up with some brilliant fingering for my Bach arrangement for the 11-string.

  46. Question Time dominated by Europe…

  47. PS

    Why hasn’t medical science come up with a method for getting pain killers down to one’s knees?

    The problem is obvious, even to a layman ike wot I am.

  48. No French updates from ole Colin today. Either he’s ill or things are looking up over there.

    Perhaps cause and effect and its both…….

  49. Stick corp. Tax down to. 12.5%.

  50. RICH
    “you can’t criticise the Tories for everything, when they took on the budget deficit, they made commitments to ring fence the NHS and international developmental yet still they get lambasted from many on the left. I think a lot of the criticism is ideologically motivated, no matter what the Tories do!”

    On those fronts, a reasonable scepticism is justified by the facts – and not only of the Tories. 0.7% of GDP is a ludicrously high level of commitment on overseas aid, and has been shown to be unspendable, unworkable and unnecessary.
    Blair and Brown’s commitment to ending World Poverty was an unrealistic piece of uninformed rhetoric, but Cameron’s decision a year ago that half of overseas aid could be allocated to military operations, for whatever cause, gave ring-fencing almost as bad a name as its apparent meaning as privatisation in the Tory lexicon when applied to the NHS.

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