Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, with topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 13%(-2). The three point Labour lead is the lowest we have seen in any poll since a ComRes poll last September (conducted during the Conservative party conference) and the lowest MORI have shown since April 2012.

All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).

UPDATE: As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.

UPDATE2: Full tabs are here. Greens on 6%.


400 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. @RICH

    Well Steve did cite evidence to be fair, not anecdote. And Amber simply challenged others to show what they claimed about the NHS didn’t happen in the private sector also.

  2. I keep new would end up in a debate! But they are also looking to get greater value for money by building on the competition Labour brought in to certain markets, something I believe is a good thing, but strangely elements of Labout now oppose, despite them actually kicking it off.

  3. @carfrew,

    My experience of the NHS is very good. I think given the cost it is incumbent on all Govts to get best value for money and bring in reforms where it can improve efficiency etc. I think Blair was right here, and obviously the Conservatives are building on this. As I stated, you can’t criticise the Tories for everything, when they took on the budget deficit, they made commitments to ring fence the NHS and international developmental yet still they get lambasted from many on the left. I think a lot of the criticism is ideologically motivated, no matter what the Tories do!

    Rich

  4. @Rich

    In addition to the ~£1billion taken from the NHS budget as transfers to cover local social care (announced in the October Spending Review), a further 2% of the total operating budget has been allocated to the commissioning bodies reorganisation (announced within last years NHS Operating Framework documents). In actual terms, the operational budget of the NHS has been cut by ~3%.

  5. @ Rich

    Colin wasn’t critiquing the government or the opposition’s health policy. He was decrying NHS A&E nurses based on them behaving, some of the time, in the same way as most workers do.

    When you staff a department to meet crises – which is exactly the point of A&E – there are going to be quieter times. These quieter times allow staff to team build & gel; something which is essential in professions which deal with stressful situations & stressed people. Colin & BlueBob appear to be unable to understand such work or empathise with the people who do it.

  6. @Rich

    Well personally I wouldn’t lambast Tories for the hell of it, and from my own experience I know Col has a point. But it’s not really about whether it’s public or private or not, and indeed the internal Market played a part in nearly assisting with my untimely demise.

    Public or private, you will get bad results with bad systems, as we saw in the banking crisis…

  7. I dont get why the Lib Dems are pushing Royal Mail into private hands, I can understand the Tories doing it but not the Lib Dems! Crazy.

    What’s next the NHS?

  8. BLUE BOB

    Yep-last night

  9. @ Amber Star

    “And your evidence for this is what exactly?”

    My own eyes

  10. @Carfrew

    “I am not seeing how your YouGov example means it’s ok to dismiss data as outliers. Can you explain why?…”

    If your basis for believing anything is based on guarantee, then you must believe in very little. You seem to want some sort of guarantee on the method used. Like I said, I offer no guarantee, other than,

    “here is the data…here is the method used to arrive at the data…here is the objective of the data”

    Similarly, polling companies do likewise. Here is the data, here is how we arrive at the data, here is the objective of the data. I don’t see you asking Anthony for guarantees regarding the data gathering methodologies, so am somewhat bemused at you asking me for a guarantee on data findings based on data which we all accept can be erroneous from time to time.

    I suggest you read up on median absolute deviation versus other measures of dispersion, and form your own conclusions on whether it is reliable. If you have suggestions as to how better the data can be measured, taking into account the level of detail, and the time and resources used, I’m all ears.

    On your point of me ‘dismissing data as outliers’, I suggest you have picked a loaded question. I dismiss nothing. The methodology omits some of the data from the final value reached, while the dataset is offered for all to see.

    From time to time I advise caution on the MAD data when the polls have shifted, due to the nature of MAD not picking up sudden shifts in polling. In that sense, MAD has its weaknesses, but in a period of generally consistent polling, it is very good at highlighting the values that we, as reasonable people would consider outliers.

    Let me ‘cherry-pick’ one of my former examples. The UKIP 8,0,8,8,12 example. What would you make of that without the MAD method? The average is 7.2, while the mad is 8. Some might assume the zero is an outlier, while the 12 is a new jump in the polls and take an average of the four ‘valid’ polls as 9. Others might see three 8s and take 8 as the more reliable estimate.

    Then we see the poll following the 8, 0, 8, 8, 12….it is a 3. What then? Average of 6.5? MAD of 8? None of it is straight-forward.

  11. Rich – “I keep new would end up in a debate!”

    Which is why I asked people to stop…

  12. NICKP

    @”Colin’s posts are mostly a symptom of having a well-nigh pathological dislike of public and civil servants, the NHS and BBC. ”

    Perhaps I can say what I think -rather than what you think I think ?

    Civil Servants -Whitehall.

    I have no doubt there is an army of dedicated staff-otherwise the whole system of Public Administration would obviously come to a halt.
    BUT-I think , at the senior level, it is inadequately resourced-intellectually, technically & culturally, to deal with the governance of a modern economy & government.

    Civil Servants-Local Government.

    As above with knobs on -plus a pay structure at the senior level which rips off the council tax payer.

    NHS:-

    I will give my personal experience:-

    A&E -a hell hole to be in & to work in no doubt. Suffers from the ludicrous concept on which the whole Health Service is built-that people do not get ill at night, or at the weekend.

    Specialist Cardiac Wards .-LIfesaving, brilliant, devoted staff at all levels.

    BBC-Overstaffed. Over paid, Hopeless Newsreaders masquerading as journalists.Addicted to the cult of Top Talent untouchability. A lot more self important than really important. Some great Drama & Comedy occasionally.

  13. @Statgeek

    You are omitting data as outliers. All I asked for was reasoning why this won’t distort things. You can’t give that, fair enough. That’s all I wanted to know…

  14. What about polls?

    Anyone want to guess the next Yougov one?

    My guess a pt Labour lead.

  15. Sorry Colin. Overstating my case again…

  16. 9 Pt Labour lead.

  17. Sorry Anthony-wrote before scanning the whole thread.

    End of for me now on this.

    But I do think A&E / GP out of hours service must be having VI effect-and it’s probably not good for Cons.

  18. @Carfrew

    “You are omitting data as outliers. All I asked for was reasoning why this won’t distort things. You can’t give that, fair enough. That’s all I wanted to know…”

    No. I omit nothing. The methodology omits outliers, and is explained in a reasonable manner. Get that much straight.

    In what way can it ‘distort things’ within the dataset?

  19. Nick

    No worries- I was knackered & pi**ed off-and should have had a cup of tea when I got home , rather than reaching for the keyboard & UKPR.

  20. @statgeek

    Ok, the methodology does it all of it’s own accord, you had nothing to do with it.

    You don’t think leaving data out might not make a difference? Ok…

  21. Oh, look it’s nearly five O’Clock… The adults will be home soon!

    Peter.

  22. @ Statgeek & Carfew

    Really enjoyed the discussion about the statistical nature of outliers and methodological handling them. Outliers is a major problem in regression analysis in economics and the related fields, because in effect the analysis is nothing but comparing the group with the outlier, except it isn’t manifest. In a so called 4* journal (economics related) in a 10-year period I found that 35% of the articles that used such methodologies, the outcome/conclusion was influenced by outliers. Wrote it up as a review article, 2 referees didn’t understand the problem and one thought it was too arrogant and it would have been better had I stated 7%…

  23. Sorry spell check corrected Carfrew in the previous post.

  24. Amber star

    Many thanks for your appraisal much appreciated, I was beginning to get a bit suspicious of the many yougov polls that seem to reproduce the same figures give or take a point or two.
    Especially In what many political pundits view a more volatile period of change, with the rise of UKip, the calamities that surround DC, the Liberals disappearing from view and the failer of EM to make much of a personal impact.

  25. AW
    I think the weather has more to do with confidence in the economic outlook by voters than any other factor (your penultimate para). My reasoning is (surely impeccably?) that the sun costs the voter nothing.

  26. BBC radio journalists are top-class & I think include by far the best journalists in the British media.
    TV news dreadful on all channels & I never watch it. I seldom watch QTime or Newsnight, but the commercial channels have nothing to compare.

    The BBC in the 30s & 40s & later was stuffy & elitist &, under Reith, utterly unrepresentative of popular culture.
    It established its rep in WWII, when TV was shut down, when it was the only relatively free Broadcasting system outside N. America.

    TV in countries which have only public service OR solely commercial television is dreadful.

    By accident we ended up from the late 50s with a balance between strong Public & Commercial systems. The BBC forced up the standards of the commercial & the commercial forced the BBC to achieve popular ratings.

    The (philistine) Right is determined to crticise the BBC to death & will probably succeed. in which case we will end up with TV as in Spain, Italy, Greece = Utter Crap –the only time I have used such a demotic term on this site.

    Finally, I don’t have a TV and don’t understand why anyone would.

  27. Meanwhile in the News which doesn’t feature on UKPR David Beckham retires.

    Come on Roy, stick him on for last 5 mins at Wembley in 2 weeks.

  28. NICKP

    Point taken.
    ——
    As a Retired MET Police Officer and Qualified Nurse married to a Senior Nurse at what is often regarded as the Best NHS Trust in the Country and The Royal College of Nursing Branch Secretary, maybe I am a tad biased regarding a subject I actually know something about !

  29. @CARFREW

    “Ok, the methodology does it all of it’s own accord, ”

    Where’s the apostrophe police when you need tham?

  30. AW
    Didn’t spot your contribution.
    Will stick to the footie!

  31. Always dangerous doing things like that..ok, ok, the spelling police as well!!!

  32. @Carfrew

    Now who’s not answering the questions? ;)

  33. I can’t wait until we get a UK version of Fox news. Fair and balanced reporting that doesn’t let facts get in the way of a story!

  34. @Norbold,

    And the Grammar Police..

    If you’re describing the police as a plural (“them”) then you should ask “where are” the apostrophe police rather than “where’s”. If you meant the police as an institution, “where’s” would be correct but you should have ended your sentence with “it”, not “them” (or “tham”).

    DC Irritating Pedant,
    Sentence Structure Monitoring Unit,
    Grammar Police

  35. Lol Norbold, it ought to be apparent from the bulk of my posts that I know the difference between the possessive and a contraction. IT’S just autocorrect doing ITS thing (see what I did there?!…)

    Anyway the sun’s out, coffee’s nice, the chill sounds of Bonobo and The Avalanche on the playlist and students haven’t eaten all the paninis so all’s good…

  36. STATGEEK
    @Carfrew
    “Now who’s not answering the questions? ;)”

    —————

    I thought it was rhetorical. I’m not defending anything, I simply asked you if you could give a guarantee, you said you couldn’t, I said Ok, that was that.

    Has anything changed in that regard? I cannot see the purpose of your question. Are you changing your mind and saying you now can give a guarantee?

  37. The apostrophe police have given up. Now I just avert my eyes, rather as one does when passing a road accident.

    Neil A was of course quite right. His notebook must be a model of transcription.
    “It’s a fair cop guv’nor. I’se what did it.” etc

    The BBC has a fine grammar quiz testing understanding of the apostrophe, the lesser/fewer conundrum, etc. Obviously I scored 10:10, but Q. 3 is really tricky.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22512744

  38. PETERCAIRNS
    “Oh, look it’s nearly five O’Clock… The adults will be home soon!
    Peter.”
    —————-

    Yes, we were waiting for you Peter. But you arrived before five!!…

  39. @Ewen Lightfoot
    NO he is not as far as I know

  40. @Statgeek

    Or to put it another way, I did answer your question, with a rhetorical question of your own.

    The simple point is that if you leave data out, it may skew the results. Or it Msy not.

    All I was asking was if you could show that using your method, it wouldn’t.

    You couldn’t. Trying to put it back on me won’t work. Because it is obvious that leaving data out can skew results unless you have a good reason it won’t. Which you don’t. And no matter how many other questions you ask me, that won’t change until you come up with a reason…

  41. Out here on Blakeney Point I can hardly see any supporters for UKIP….

  42. John

    We are all on UKPR.

  43. John Murphy

    How are the Sandwich Terns & Little Terns this year?

  44. DAN THE MAN

    @”We are all on UKPR.”

    Surrounded by the mob in that Scottish pub, according to reports.

    Nigel is learning about those Scottish amygdalae-the hard way.

  45. One wonders what will happen when Clegg and Cameron visit scotland.

    Its pretty pathetic acting like that, if you dont like a party, then dont vote for them. It doesn’t help scotland shake off its image.

  46. DAN

    No indeed.

    Reports indicate a particular antipathy to a UKIP representative who expressed certain views about Scotland & “subsidies”.

    Exit courtesy of The Scottish Police it seems.

    …………The Leith police dismisseth us. ?

  47. John M

    Ah, Blakeney Point!……the site of all my childhood holidays. Give the place my best.

  48. Reports indicate a particular antipathy to a UKIP representative who expressed certain views about Scotland & “subsidies”.

    So they were Nationalists. Shocker.

  49. STEVE2

    Scottish smilie.

    Some chap called Monckton I believe.

  50. So the polls are narrowing and voters are more positive about the economic future.

    As long as the Conservative back-benches do not start to bang on about europe we could see further in-roads on the Labour lead…oh wait..

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