Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, with topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 13%(-2). The three point Labour lead is the lowest we have seen in any poll since a ComRes poll last September (conducted during the Conservative party conference) and the lowest MORI have shown since April 2012.

All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).

UPDATE: As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.

UPDATE2: Full tabs are here. Greens on 6%.


400 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. No prizes for guessing which party the BNP’s voters have desserted to

  2. Curious as to the other 12% – presumably Green, BNP, nationalists and others from the loonier fringe?

  3. Tim – as Simon points out, the implication is that there are rather a lot of “others” there (though that assumes the poll sums to 100%, with rounding it ain’t necessarily so).

    You mind find there are no missing BNP voters to track down!

  4. Second utterly weird poll this week.

  5. No prizes for guessing which party the BNP’s voters have deserted to

    Don’t you mean “voter”, singular?

    Well, there’s her and Reg, I suppose. Unless Reg is secretly a little old lady in Wales.


  6. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has called on France to present a credible programme of structural reforms as new data showed Europe’s second largest economy had slipped into a triple-dip recession.

    France’s economic woes mirrored losses across the eurozone.New growth figures for the first quarter show a collective contraction of 0.2% for European Union members.

    The figures mark the fourth consecutive quarterly shrinkage and a 1.0% drop on a year-by-year comparison.

    Barroso, who was due to meet President Francois Hollande in Brussels, said France must pursue reforms if the EU was to grant it two more years to bring its budget deficit down to 3% of economic output as promised.

    The extension would be approved “if France presents a credible reform programme so that France can regain its competitiveness”, Barroso told Europe 1 radio.”

    Sky News

  7. The BBC’s take on those OP results from EU countries which Richard in Norway posted here for us :-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22516099

  8. I was thinking the same 12% on “others” weird indeed.

  9. The effect of the turnout factor shows how essential it is that Labour have a GOTV plan & work it assiduously right up to the GE!

  10. Labour lead is probably around 8% IMO.

  11. @Amber

    GOTV?

    George Osborne to Vatican / Venezuela / Vietnam?

  12. Alec

    I don’t think the polls are weird I just think were seeing a shift in public opinion over the last few weeks since the council elections Those elections may effect the future polls in the same way as the omnishambles budget change the polls last time.
    Of course whether it lasts is another thing, I think it’s possible because the economy will pick up in the next two years and by and large the welfare changes have had a positive impact amongst the majority of the public.
    But we will see, at least it makes life more interesting and in turn less predictable.

  13. @ Statgeek

    LOL. Get Out The Vote (or for the BNP, get out the voter).

  14. Anthony

    With regards to the ICM figures, it’s worth pointing out that the effect of the lone Welsh BNP voter is not entirely due to the sort of demographic weighting distortion you described in a previous thread. The main problem seems to be to do with how they deal with the 2010 vote recall.

    Presumably very few people are unwilling to admit they voted BNP – there was only one in May and one in April. So it seems that if they are still a BNP voter they will automatically get massively up-weighted. Obviously if the lone BNP-er also happens to come from various under-represented demographic groups, the effect is magnified even more.

    I suspect this may have only happened in the last two polls and that previously they have lumped all the Others (possibly excluding UKIP recently) together for weighting purposes.

  15. Roger – it’s a possibility I considered… but we can’t actually tell so I didn’t mention it. ICM weight by past vote, but I am not sure if they individually weight by BNP, GRN, UKIP, other, etc… or weight “others” as a collective group as you suggest they used to (I know they are shown separately on the tabs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean ICM weight that way).

  16. Amber “LOL”?
    Little Old Lady?

  17. Before taking likelihood to vote into account the MORI figures are:

    Con 31%

    Lab 38%

    Lib Dem 10%

    UKIP 11%

    which shows the difference MORI’s strict cut off makes. As already discussed, it also has the effect of massively cutting down the effective sample size to 535 and hence increasing the margin or error.

  18. Looking at the tables, I see that Labour have lost over 10% over the last 6 months or so for Ipsos Mori. More interestingly, it’s been largely to UKIP. During the same period, the Tories have suffered a similar but smaller drop. That should put to rest the “New UKIP supporters are upset Tories” narrative.

    Faragemania? I.e. would current UKIP supporters go ape if Farage actually did a deal with (or went into a coalition with) the Tories?

  19. BNP 4% one day, Greens 6% the next, seems like there is a flaw somewhere by these companies. YouGov results do seem a lot more stable and accurate for the smaller companies. WDIK

  20. @ Bill Patrick

    Actually, I think Anthony’s looked at this in detail (i.e. checking the breakdown of UKIP voting intention to how they voted in 2010), and this did indeed show a mixture. Conservatives a little more than Labour and Lib Dem, but certainly not enough to back up this idea that it’s all going to switch to the Tories in 2015.

    I think a UKIP/Conservative deal this side of the election is unlikely – UKIP are making too much mileage out of saying all the parties are as bad as each other to stop now. If they did, the Labour defects would either revert to Labour or defect to another party. Not so sure what would happen to the Lib Dem defects, but it would be foolish for the Conservatives to assume they’ll absorb all the UKIP vote by doing a deal with them.

  21. Chris Neville-Smith,

    I didn’t want to suggest that Anthony had been sucked-in by such simplistic thinking.

    I agree with your points.

    One confounding factor for 2015 is the number of people who will vote: will it be as high (relatively speaking) as 2010? Higher? Lower? If there’s one thing to be learned from the past 20+ years of turnout, it’s that unpredictability of the result encourages people to turn-out, but even that hasn’t stopped a steady decline in British democracy since 1992.

  22. @Colin
    “Barroso, who was due to meet President Francois Hollande in Brussels, said France must pursue reforms if the EU was to grant it two more years to bring its budget deficit down to 3% of economic output as promised.”

    Such threats. But what’s the sanction? That the Bundesbank sends in its tanks, via Belgium?

  23. @ John TT

    Amber “LOL”?
    Little Old Lady?
    —————
    Love it!

    These polls would be quite the downer for me, were it not for the wit of UKPR commenters. They really cheer me up. :-)

  24. It is always confusing and fascinating to see one poll as YouGov with the tidy numbers of 40/30/10

    to then see 31/34/10.

    Anthony’s point: change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote.

    is obviously a major factor.

  25. PHIL HAINES

    I don’t think the Bundesbank is a factor anymore-at any rate their tanks aren’t.

    Other than that-a very good question.

  26. ROGER MEXICO.

    Do you feel that MORI Polls lack credibility because of the points you raise?

    Do your reservations invalidate MORI Poll to Poll changes–which seem quite interesting in this Poll

  27. @Colin

    As long as the methodology is transparent and the data collected appropriately, there is nothing wrong with it as such. You just have to judge it appropriately.

    This is one of the issues with general statistical literacy – people can access a huge range of data online, but their ability to access it often outstrips their ability to properly interpret it. This especially applies to journalists.

    The data or researchers then get the blame, of course.

    Personally, I see no problem with both surveys – it seems that Labour has a reasonable lead but that quite a few of their voters are not completely sure they’ll vote yet (but if they do, they’ll vote Labour). This puts us in interesting territory. Were I Lynton Crosby, I would see this as an argument in favour of a negative campaign – if the Tories can’t get more votes themselves, they can at least put Labour voters off voting – all the more as it will affect them more than the Tories.

    Similarly, it suggests that Labour may do better running a positive campaign as otherwise they may deter their own supporters from turning out (unless they say ‘you have to vote or that lot will get back in’, which often works well, but may not if they don’t give voters enough of a feeling that Labour will be better).

  28. In other news, does Nadine Dorries actually want to be thrown out of the Tories? Giving an interview to the Speccy saying she’d like to run as a joint UKIP candidate the moment she’s reinstated isn’t just odd, it’s downright provocative.

    I’d give her the boot if I were them, pour encourager les autres.

  29. Nadine Dorries wants to be a joint Tory/UKIP candidate.

    Just pick a party, for god sakes.

  30. Nadine’s comment seems bizarre to a Scottish person; ’tis like a Labour MP saying she’d like to also represent the SNP. Bonkers.

    However, given that Farage & some other Tories have been making noises about an electoral pact, she has company in her ‘crazy’ zone.

    I wonder whether today’s Ipso Mori will give Farage pause for thought. If (as IM allegedly shows) the UKIP are taking voters from Labour as much as, or even more than, the Tories perhaps Farage should think again about making electoral pacts with any Party (or its individual MPs).

  31. @Amber

    The only consistent thing in all this is that Labour and Labour supporters generally shy away from pacts, alliances, coalitions and deals.

    Consistently unwilling to compromise? ;)

  32. I’m just really glad that I don’t come on here daily any more just to read the banter – the polls are now exciting too! And if in the most non partisan way possible, we could push up the lib dem score a bit (….well, a lot) this site would be the perfect entertainment.

    Thanks guys!

  33. Bit of a tricky one, that; re. Dorries wanting to be a ‘joint UKIP candidate’. The kneejerk thing is to say, well, you can’t do that, you’re either a Conservative candidate or you’re not, so you’re out.

    The big problem with that is that it Dorries is then bound to become a fully-fledged kipper, so booting her effectively automatically creates a UKIP MP – surely the last thing the Tories want right now. It would also make her a second, relatively recognisable face for UKIP alongside Farage, which is something they desperately want.

    If on the other hand, Cameron was able to say “these are Conservative candidates, whom the local UKIP association has also decided to endorse”, then the idea might not look so daft after all.

  34. GOTV

    GeorgeOsborneTransVestite

    Don’t tell anyone though.

  35. Greens on 6%?

    Should I get my hopes up or is this another little old lady in Wales?

  36. Pablo

    I would love to see VI’s for the Greens for the European election as it is PR.

    PS What happended to the other 419 Pablos?

  37. @spearmint
    On the contrary I am a relatively young (male) business owner/school governor in Scotland. You couldn’t get much more of a contrast.

  38. Joint candidates for UKIP is a false economy, IMHO. It could tear the oarty apart, right vs left. How would they win a cllr in the north or many parts of the midlands if they are associated with the Tories?

    Think of the publicity “a vote for UKIP is a vote for the nasty Tories”

  39. What a lovely afternoon.

  40. CHRIS RILEY

    Thank you.

  41. Personally, I don’t believe the Greens are really on 6%.

  42. Alec
    #

    The Greens are on 6% today. Enjoy it.

    Quick question, where do you sit on the EU, much debated on here.

    PS Read yesterday in one of the papers that there was a surge in support for the BNP! Really they dont understand polls do they.

  43. If it wasn’t for the irritation of Europe, things would be really looking up for the Conservatives. Even Mervyn King today talked up the recovery. The Labour lead is looking increasingly fragile to me.

  44. @Rich

    Agreed

    You hear and read a lot more about Europe, than you do the economy. The recovery will or wont(triple dip) save the Tories. If in 2015 the recovery is really kicking in then will the public really risk putting Labour back in charge, especially with GB fresh in peoples minds.

    The economy is also linked to Europe, if the UK is doing well in 2015, then leaving the EU and even Scotland leaving the UK become less of an issue. When the ship is riding high, why jump?

  45. Good Evening All.

    Polls tightening, it seems, maybe.

    Two years ago on here I was lampooned for suggesting there is always a tory claw back.

    There is a tory claw back on the way.

    Will Ed last until 2015?

    Yes, imo

  46. @simon,

    I agree, although I am a pessimist, so if I had to bet I still think a small Labour majority is favourite, but those people talking up a Labour landslide under EM are not being objective. This election is two years away, and if we get a strong recovery and living standards rising again, I think it’s really up for grabs.

    Rich

  47. Anybody stay up last night and watch. Mississippi Burning?

    Wow. How powerful. It made me angry inside towards the characters.

    That is why I can vote for UKIP with a clear conscience, unlike others parties. If I found someone “unsavoury” in my UKIP branch, then I was have them kicked out. They are all Ex Labour anyway, so unlikely. They couldn’t be Tory, this is a working class area in the Midlands!

  48. @ Statgeek

    Consistently unwilling to compromise?
    ———-
    And tribal too. ;-)

  49. Dan, my girlfriend is going to be interviewing Michael Rooker (who played one of the cops in Mississippi Burning) in a few weeks. It’s a great film!

    I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again – I’d like to see dual candidacy as decided by constituency parties.

    In both three-way marginals and safe Tory seats with a split opposition, Lib-Lab and Lab-Green candidates would terrify the Tories.

  50. MRnameless

    Which side of the commons would a joint Lab/Lib MP sit on if Labour had a majority?

    What if the two parties disagreed on policy, then they would have two “whips” trying to sway thehis/her vote.

    What happens in a local election where only two parties put a candidate up? ie Lab and LD’s. They have a joint candidate and the public have no choice! Not good.

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