Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, with topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 34%(-4), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 13%(-2). The three point Labour lead is the lowest we have seen in any poll since a ComRes poll last September (conducted during the Conservative party conference) and the lowest MORI have shown since April 2012.

All the usual caveats about unusual poll findings apply and the full tabs are not yet up on the MORI website, but MORI’s Tom Mludzinski says the change is mostly due to Labour voters saying they are less likely to vote (as regular readers will know Ipsos MORI use the harshest turnout filter, only including respondents who say they are absolutely 10/10 certain to vote. Most other companies either use softer turnout filters, weighting down people who are less likely to vote, or ignore turnout filters completely away from election time).

UPDATE: As with the YouGov/Sunday Times figures for the last few week’s, MORI’s figures also show an increase in economic optimism… or at least, a decrease in pessimism. 30% now expect the economy to improve in the next year, 31% to get worse – a net “feel good factor” of minus 1. This is up from minus 19 a month ago, and the highest since July 2010.

UPDATE2: Full tabs are here. Greens on 6%.

400 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13”

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  1. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has described protesters who besieged him in an Edinburgh pub as “fascist scum”.

    Presumably he did it from England?

  2. National statistics report from yesterday says 13% of population now immigrants. 45% of those are UK citizens (like myself). The rest look like they are mainly from Europe (Poland, Ireland. Italy, France, Germany, Portugal)

    So most will be eligible to vote in the EU elections next year. And a growing percentage are eligible to vote in the national elections 2015. (generally after 5 years you can become a citizen)

    Given the US election result was widely attributed to the immigrant vote, and given the rapidly changing face of Britain in the last few years (daily mail has some nice graphs showing most of us arrived in the last 10 years), and given that most parties are jumping on the anti immigrant bandwagon, will be interesting to see how that impacts results.

    Have there been any polls done around immigrant voters, who they intend voting for and how that has changed over the last year as many parties turn anti immigrant?

  3. “Ed must go.”

    Where to?


    Ta to all for painkiller advice – treid ’em all. Am starting to think it is just god’s way of letting you know you’re hurting.

    Another night like last night though and I shall give it the rubber mallet treatment.

  4. “Does this sometimes show how the Conservatives get it tougher on these issues over Labour? I actually think it does.”


    Well they did set themselves up a bit with the “all in it together” line. And cuts to HMRC. And people may be more bothered about it in an era of cuts and no growth…

  5. Chatterclass

    Thank you.

  6. I am not about to jump ship, but I to have just heard the Farage / BBC Jock interview. What a shame that leading people from my party, haven’t got the spherical’s to talk about a distinct and quite numerous minority of Scots Nats, in the truthful way that Farage just has.
    I have been banging on about anti English hatred in Scotland for well over 30 years, in which time it has increased considerably. Finally, a heavily reported politician has tasted it and had the balls to respond to it.

  7. I agree. People were intensely relaxed about corporations getting filthy rich as long as the profits appeared to be trickling down. Now that the economy has crashed, the forgotten second half of Mandelson’s aphorism has come into play with a vengeance. In this climate a government of any colour would be expected to crack down on tax evasion. That’s why most of the criticism has been directed at the companies responsible, not the Government.

  8. @ Steve
    “UKIP leader Nigel Farage has described protesters who besieged him in an Edinburgh pub as “fascist scum”.
    -You couldn’t make it up!”

    Modern politicians, particularly nationalists, have no sense of irony. & I thought Farage liked pubs. Mind you Scottish beer is awful — my only critiicsm of my favourite country.

  9. Er, that is to say I agree with Carfrew about tax evasion, not Roland about how awful Scots are.

    Perhaps your leaders have been a little quieter on that subject because it’s the Conservative and ~Unionist~ Party and they’d quite like to win the referendum next year? English Tories complaining about the behaviour of Scots, even Scots who are behaving badly, tends not to go over too well north of the border.

  10. @ CARFREW

    “Well they did set themselves up a bit with the “all in it together” line. And cuts to HMRC. And people may be more bothered about it in an era of cuts and no growth ”

    You are right, many people are concerned about “cuts and no growth”. However many people are aware of the background to the cuts and the reason for no growth.

    Their conclusion is that the cuts are essential and the lack of growth is a “Dark Valley” which encompasses the western world. The very fast majority of our peer group in Europe are in an even bleaker place than us.

  11. Statgeek

    It is entirely possible, even likely, that Scotland will vote “NO”, continue to vote Labour for Westminster and give the SNP an even greater vote for their third term in government.

    Part of that will be Libdem to mostly SNP churn and LibDem to Labour churn compensated for by Lab losses to SNP.

    The SNP are likely to improve the efficiency of delivery of welfare and make it more locally sensitive. Also they are going to take advantage of the neglect of the West highland economy where there will be easy opportunities for growth and employment. That should give them some scope to reduce the cost of welfare to some extent.

    Education and Health would still be free and also care of the elderly. If that means that tax has to go up, or pensions take a hit, so be it. Pensioners would accept the sacrifice if given the choice. Raising the retirement age means we need to create more jobs and maybe that isn’t so difficult if we are not relying on trickle-down of bankers bonuses or tax-avoiding international companies.

    Who said ALL Scots are awful ? Try being a little less of a right on liberal and read what was typed.

    BTW, I strongly disapprove of mutilating the genitals of small girls. However, this does not mean I think all Africans are awful.

  13. Apologies: That’s VAST majority of our peer group.

  14. Gove & now Hammond jostling for position in the leadership stakes. May has lined herself up and Osborne presumably thinks that, like Brown, it’s his for the asking? Cabinet ministers lack confidence in a 2015 victory?

    Hammond on QT quoted:
    “There is a real sense of anger among many people who are married that any government thinks it has the ability to change the definition of an institution like marriage.”

    Hammond of course has it completely the wrong way around.
    The state defines marriage [and divorce, and acceptable forms of sexuality] & always has done.

    “The people”, if the state does not recognise, or discriminates, against their marital wishes, make their own arrangements.

  15. A blatent attempt by the “Yes” campaign to divide “us” and “them”

  16. @ Roland.
    “What a shame that leading people from my party, haven’t got the spherical’s to talk about a distinct and quite numerous minority of Scots Nats, in the truthful way that Farage just has.”

    What a “sentence”!

    Is English your 2nd or 3rd language?

  17. @Roland

    Lol, well, it’s not quite as simple as you put it. Polling shows that while Labour aren’t well regarded re: the economy, coalition aren’t either.

    As for what actually is the right economic approach and whether cuts are as necessary or desirable as claimed, well if you’ve followed the debates here you’ll know where I stand on the matter.

    One need not the KoolAid of the coalition on the economy anymore than one needed to drink Labour’s KoolAid in the “no boom and bust” era. The coalition narrative leaves many things out, like how growth slumped once cuts were announced, how this predates slowdown in Eurozone, how the promised growth resulting from cutting the public sector didn’t happen because cuts made people batten down the hatches and industry stop spending because cuts dampened demand.

    It’s quite hard to get coalition supporters to even engage with the factcab economy has difficulty growing without demand. They just keep talking about debt, even though a lack if demand hinders progress on the debt as we have seen. Even business people surely aware of the need for demand will avoid discussing it…

  18. Robbie Alive

    Most beer in Scotland is very bad. Since becoming diagnosed as diabetic I have decided that an easy change in my diet would be just to not drink beer at all unless it was the harder-to-find better stuff.

    I was hoping that there would be a SNP-Green coalition, for SGP want to encourage local microbreweries all along the tourist routes. That’s something a tourism minded SNP could easily support.

    I think it is beginning to dawn on the SG among others that supporting big business on the assumption that tax will be paid and profits not exported isn’t necessarily true and government is left with a problem when closure is beyond averting.

    That would be the difference between 100 microbreweries employing a handful of people, and one big one.

  19. @paulcroft
    Go to your doctor and insist on an injection steroids/ painkiller.

  20. @Roland
    What a breath of fresh air! While the majority of nationalists are good reasonable people (if just misguided), there is a substantial minority who are not, and who, quite frankly are dragging this debate down. This has been going on for years, and the lack of action from the SNP leadership has only stoked it.

    When I look at the footage from yesterday, I ask myself is Scotland the reasonable, tolerant, free-speech loving country it is portrayed as?

    My prediction for Donside is the Lib Dems to lose their deposit (they only got 6% last time in any case) and UKIP to come third, pushing the tories into 4th. There will be a swing to Labour, but whether it is enough to take the seat we will have to wait and see.


    @”The rest look like they are mainly from Europe (Poland, Ireland. Italy, France, Germany, Portugal)

    India & Pakistan ( 13 % between them) far outweigh France, Germany & Portugal.

    The Sub-Continent is the second biggest grouping after Poland-and they have been here much longer.


    @” I ask myself is Scotland the reasonable, tolerant, free-speech loving country it is portrayed as?”

    Where did you see that portrayal as a matter of interest?

  23. Rich, John Pilgrim @ Steve, Jayblanc

    Apart from extra costs above inflation it is proposed to take out of NHS expenditure what is spent by the increase in private patients.

    Then there is the extra burden of contracting, profit and fraud.

    The more agencies involved the greater the opportunity for fraud. It can be as simple of changing postcodes and dob’s and your unit can beggar your neighbour with nil chance of being found out.

    It is possible that they may need to put in extra funding initially to take the place of accumulated personal savings, either held in family savings or in insurance. These have not yet been built up and are not available. The American system will not work until they are.

    Your local trust will be able to sell of half its beds to the private sector and then go bust because of its failure to be “efficient”. It will close, and the NHS facility will not be able to compete in future for the contract.

  24. It’s interesting how differently papers reported on the Edinburgh outing – largest difference between Scottish and English papers, but among English papers too (eg the Scotsman kind of said that Farage wanted to launch his bid in Scotland, but he was unprepared and knows little about it. So, I guess opinions are influenced in this case quite a bit by what people write.

    Farage has an advantage to the demonstrators – being able to put his story out again and again. But it could backfire. While I understand that he had an unpleasant experience and feels sore, he comes across as a bad looser and pretty weak when things aren’t set up for him to present his views.

  25. @Colin
    We’re often told that by supporters of independence, as a way of saying how different we are to England… well yesterday they showed the world we ARE different to England… just not in a good way.

  26. What’s in the koolAid that everyone is drinking?


    Being a UKPR reader, I had got there already.


    Just listened to it. Very amusing. He has some style, one has to concede.

    If he can make political headway up there he will be a miracle worker.

  28. @ John B Dick
    V. Interesting.

    I have been holidaying in Scotland 30+ years. All the people involved in tourism are unfailingly courteous, efficient, & dryly humorous. The food/accommodation much improved, as in England.
    The beer remains the same! Micro-breweries on the tourist routes would be a hit.
    One can see that Scot. tourism must strike a balance between preserving the country’s unique charm & (unspoiled) beauty & providing facilities/diversions for visitors.

  29. Don’t drink it Richard!!

    Not everyone is drinking it!!

    It’s full of spin and bad stuff like that. Drink Bourbon instead. It’s much better…

  30. @Laszlo

    “While I understand that he had an unpleasant experience and feels sore, he comes across as a bad looser and pretty weak when things aren’t set up for him to present his views.”


    Yeah, you mentioned the other day Farage has certain approach that’s tricky to disrupt. Clearly, when thrown off balance a bit, he can seem rather rattled. Bit like Cammo actually…

  31. @ JOHN RUDDY
    Thanks for your support John and I agree with your point entirely. The people on this site who disagree, would be the loudest shouters, if the same group of rent-a mob, appeared in Bradford yelling “Pakies Out”. That these people were shouting Fcuking English Bastard, Fcuk off back to England, makes it fine. Its just Scots airing their democratic rights. As you so rightly say, it does the genuine Scots Nats, no good at all.

  32. Being Scottish I am glad of the reception Farage received. It is time he was called out on his views instead of the easy ride the English media have been giving him. The protesters were against racism and homophobia Farage is using the incident to pretend it was because he is English which is nonsense, it was because North of the Border UKIP are perceived as similar to the BNP.

    Criticising the protesters is not going to help his party’s chances in the by-election I think that UKIP will more than likely lose their deposit.

  33. Interesting report today here:-
    FRENCH people are more “anti” the European Union than the British, with just 41% of French viewing Europe favourably as against 43% in the UK.

    A new study by Pew Research has found that “positive views of the EU are at or near their low point in most EU nations, even among the young. And fewer Europeans now say economic integration has strengthened their nation’s economy than did a year ago.”

    I can see the great European dream ending within 10 years, unless European leaders accept that the workings of the EU have to change with the times. Cameron is on the right track with his desire to renegotiate, then to give the people a referendum – in or out.
    And Hollande’s proposal is just plain bonkers.

  34. @ John Ruddy

    Things are connected. Before the interruption (it would have happened anyway) he said that UKIP now recognises the Scottish Parliament. Jolly nice from him considering that there was a referendum about it – in 1997. So he doesn’t recognise democracy when it goes against him? The only reason he went there and wanted to make the statement (he also tried his hand on Scottish colloquialisms with little success), because he thought he needed it. He never ever debates anything and he loves heckling others. While it wasn’t a pretty scene, he got what he preaches.

    @ Carfrew

    His technique is very clear if you watch him on YT one after the other. He is good in it. But no technique is impervious.

  35. @Norbold

    “Yep, that would make all the difference. As soon as he went and was replaced by ???, newspapers like the Daily Mail and The Sun would welcome the replacement and not write anything negative about him/her, Labour’s ratings would soar to 50% (at least) and UKIP would be finished. And a brave new world would beckon.
    It’s all Ed’s fault.”

    At last, someone speaking some sense!

  36. Thats YOBS, think we are. I would think jobs is a word most of those demonstrators would avoid like the Black Death.

  37. @ Roland

    There were two distinct groups of demonstrators. One of them expressed their views about UKIP’s politics and were quite accurate. The other group attacked him from their own political stance and it was not nice BECAUSE it was only reverse UKIP). Inevitably there were overlaps and some of the media utilise this (having said that all of them has a flavour of glee in their reporting, I wonder why…)

  38. @Laszlo

    Yes, I shall be looking out for that.

    If Farage was a boarder, it would fit a theory I have about him and Cammo…

  39. I have just listened to Farage accuse BBC Scotland of hatred towards him and put the phone down on the interviewer.

    He has got far too used to the fawning from the English media. I am very pleased that at least in Scotland we are not falling for the UKIP nonsense.

  40. Rich

    “Did anybody see QT last night. There was the assistant editor of the FT on, and I found one thing really striking that she said. About 5 years ago she helped chair a discussion with various concerned elements about the amount of tax big companies pay, but nobody was interested, neither the Govt or the media, which you would assume means left wing media. Does this sometimes show how the Conservatives get it tougher on these issues over Labour? I actually think it does.”

    Left wing media ?

    Do you think only the Daily Mirror & the Guardian turned up ?


    All the ‘Scotland says Yes’ campaign need to do, come the referendum: Is run a few PPB featuring random English people that hold views akin to yours and a Yes vote is a certainty

  42. The Guarfian isn’t even left wing…

  43. @ Carfrew

    He went to Dulwich College, but I’m not sure if on boarding basis.

    In my opinion there is a distinct difference between him and DC. Listen to O. Mosley’s speech on sweatshops – interesting parallels…

  44. @JBD

    “The SNP are likely to improve the efficiency of delivery of welfare”

    Would it be too much to have a party in the this millennium, willing to deliver sustainable, private sector jobs?

    Like my previous post said, modern politics is just a welfare bidding war. None of it impacts or factors in my life.

  45. New thread.

  46. @Laszlo

    Yes I would imagine you’re right. I wasn’t thinking so much about delivery when things are going well, but more of what they are like when it isn’t going well.

  47. @Couper
    That would suit me fine. Whilst it is not my parties policy, far from it, I have always wished Mr Salmond every success he would wish himself. [Snip]
    BTW, I support Cameron on gay marriage and renegotiating Europe. I am so sorry that the truth in my previous post hurt so much and I fear our common goal, a separate Scotland, will not happen. Most Scots are just to damn smart.

  48. @ Roland
    “I would guess from your attitudes you are a council school teacher. ”

    “Council school!” V. quaint. No, not a teacher; &, in the current climate, I thank god for that. .

    Illiteracy is probably not caused by the lack of instruction in grammar — I have never had a grammar lesson in my life & I don’t think grammar can be taught successfully by formal means — but by the fact that people don’t read enough.
    I have made myself a functional, though very imperfect, grammarian by reading the classic authors. Besides, they have already said everything knowing.

  49. Well a day after we are sort of getting a clearer picture of the “Siege of Farage”.

    The group involved was probably less than 100.
    It was a lose alliance of left wing non SNP nationalists and Students.
    It really didn’t represent the 80% of Scots who vote for centre and left parties who don’t Agee with UKIP, and it wasn’t really that effective.

    What is less clear is how many if any SNP members were there and if the claim that some of the Students had come up especially from Birmingham and Newcastle as has been claimed ( although that wouldn’t rule them out as being Scots or nationalists)

    All in all I would have preferred it not to have happened or at least to be peaceful.

    It was covered in Brian Taylor’s Big Debate this lunchtime (17/5/13)



    Don’t presume you know my views.

    Scotland contributes more in tax than it receives from the UK that fact is no longer disputed. . No one is making the case that Scotland could not go it alone, in fact the case is that Scotland would be much better off financially without the rest of the UK.

    Which when you consider Scottish natural resources as well as our education system and small population size makes sense.

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