This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun is up now and has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%. Full tabs are here.

Following the rather surprising ICM result on Monday, this latest YouGov poll has the BNP at 0% (Actually it is what some polls would put as an asterisk, meaning less than 0.5% but not actually zero). This is fairly typical of at least the last year, with the overwhelming majority of polls showing the BNP on 0% or 1%.


50 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 15”

  1. Nick Clegg in the Chair for PMQ’s today.

    That should be fun!

  2. that little old lady in Wales mustn’t have been surveyed this time!

  3. Unemployment up 15000, more of those green shoots Colin is on about

  4. Pleased about the BNP percentage. Anyone got any numbers yet as to how many UKIP were BNP – I know some have been found out..

  5. I just wished they would split the Midlands from Wales, how are you supposed to measure PC VI, if it is dumped in with a region they dont stand? Or know UKIP’s strength in Wales?

  6. I think the revelations that the oil price might have been rigged for the last 10 years – and it’s the EU that are getting to the bottom of it – might turn out to be quite significant.

    The Eurosceptics really don’t want to find themselves on the wrong side of that row.

  7. CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%.

    These are very neat looking numbers.

  8. Anyone got any numbers yet as to how many UKIP were BNP – I know some have been found out..”

    Voters or members?

    I know the UKIP has a ban on ex far right party members joining them. Something the main 3 parties dont have.

    If you are talking voters, I read 1 in 3 voted UKIP, not sure where the other 2 in 3 went. Might be hard to know for sure because people wont be honest.

  9. “I think the revelations that the oil price might have been rigged for the last 10 years – and it’s the EU that are getting to the bottom of it – might turn out to be quite significant.”

    It’s hardly commendable if it’s took 10 years, and why didn’t the US get wind of this? They have been historically net importers.

  10. Simon

    That the oil price is rigged is old news, that someone wants to do something about it is very new

  11. IIRC unemployment is typically a lagging indicator of economic recovery. Can anyone more economically literate than me confirm what the most reliable leading indicators are?

  12. @AW

    Thanks for that explanation.

    So a weighting of 18 for 1 person is plausible.

    I am left wondering why a company with an effective sample size of 500 and with 18 of those depending on 1 person should in some quarters be referred to as the “gold standard”. Perhaps because historically the gold standard eventually turned into dust?

  13. @ Statgeek

    If you hadn’t chopped a point from Labour, your prediction would’ve been bang on. But still, 30, 39, 10, 15 was the closest anybody got to predicting this YG, so jolly well done.

  14. Nick Clegg will be asked about an EU referendum at PMQ’s which will be a little odd. The coaltion government don’t have any policy for a referendum, so he won’t be able to answer for the government. All he can say is that the coalition have no plans for a referendum during this parliament. Any referendum after May 2015 will be up to whoever forms the government.

  15. @ BFR

    Can anyone more economically literate than me confirm what the most reliable leading indicators are?
    ———————-
    A combination of rising employment & rising output (productivity) per person almost invariably indicates the potential for a return to real growth. By real growth, I mean increasing GDP followed by increasing living standards (as opposed to paying people who don’t create added value &/or inflationary increases in the money value of wages).

    Those are, IMO, the most reliable indicators according to conventional economic ‘wisdom’ following the type of recession from which the UK has suffered (or is suffering depending what these indicators show when the next numbers are released).

  16. Nick Clegg will be asked about an EU referendum at PMQ’s which will be a little odd.
    ————–
    Does anybody else actually watch PMQs when it’s Nick & Harriet?

  17. @Amber

    Ta very much. It was calculated with hours of statistics, and at excessive cost. Truth be told the average of the last five polls were (most recent in brackets):

    Con 29.4 (31)
    Lab 38.6 (38)
    Lib 9.8 (10)
    UKIP 15.4 (14)

    Split the diff with Con at 30, round up for Lab, Lib and down for UKIP, based on the numbers. Scientific method you see. Or we could just say “Lucky guess”. :)

    @Simon

    “I just wished they would split the Midlands from Wales, how are you supposed to measure PC VI, if it is dumped in with a region they dont stand?”

    I made a little mention of it here:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/

    Not very scientific, but multiply by 4.3 is a reasonable guess, but you’re dealing with integers, so it’s very approximate.

    @TingedFringe (Last thread)

    “Do you track the ‘Do you support/oppose the coalition agreement?’ question?”

    No. Just the approval, and leadership ratings.

    @Postage Included (Last thread)

    “I have the DKWNVs back to just 22/03/13 including cross-breaks – not as much as I thought, but if you do want it I have no idea how to send it to you! Just post it as a comment on your site?”

    Send it to enquiries [at] statgeek.co.uk

  18. @ Simon,

    “I just wished they would split the Midlands from Wales, how are you supposed to measure PC VI, if it is dumped in with a region they dont stand? Or know UKIP’s strength in Wales?”

    Hear, hear. Apart from anything else, it makes it impossible to accurately gauge Lab vs. Tory VI in the Midlands because Wales is distorting it.

    @ Amber,

    Eh, I might today just to watch the Eurosceptics torture Clegg.

  19. From Wikipedia (so not 100% reliable)….there are also some pretty technical ones besides these.

    Leading indicators:
    – Average weekly working hours
    – Unemployed newly signed on in the month
    – Stock market, i.e. FTSE
    – Business orders (stock and investment goods)
    – Consumer expectations

    Lagging indicators:
    – Total unemployment
    – Inflation rate for services
    – Bank rate
    – Personal indebtedness as a proportion of income.

    I’m fairly confident that unemployment generally only starts to fall when a recovery is well on track, as the first part of the recovery cycle uses up existing slack in production capacity rather than generating new jobs.

    Green shoots = / = falling unemployment.

  20. ROGER REBEL

    Mervyn King was hinting at them too in his last Inflation Report this morning.

  21. Big fat ron

    Rising unemployment could indicate an improving economy if its caused by folk returning to the work force similarly falling unemployment may indicate worsening confidence in the economy if its caused by folk leaving the labour force. Context is everything

  22. Again it is a subsample rather than definitive, but on the basis of todays poll I think UKIP is running at about half it’s UK average in Scotland.

    Taking Scotland out of the mainland figures I think 16% England/Wales, 8% Scotland is about right.

    In a way the 21% outside London in the South t UKIP’s relative weakness in the North highlights the Tory problem , UKIP is strongest where the Tories need to hold and weaker where Labour is strong.

    Oh and unemployment is down again up here with a record number of jobs, and both the Herald and Scotsman are viewing Cameron’s EU U turn as broadly good for the “Yes” side.

    Oh and my take on the BNP is that somewhere in Wales there is an enormous women eighteen times normal size angry that that foreigners are coming over here and eating all the pies.

    Peter.

  23. Generally, as our Norwegian correspondent notes, unemployment only usually starts to fall in a sustained way when a recovery is well underway.

    So we could be recovering and unemployment could be going up. I am not sure that even if we are in recovery, it is so robust that it could not be blown off track if, for example, we have another poor summer or the Co-Op’s banking issues turn out not to be isolated.

  24. The much vaunted “polldrums” have undoubtedly been injected with the polling equivalent of a north-easterly (or should that be south-easterly from a UKIP point of view?) but if you were being a bit more sanguine than some of the rather more over-excited amongst us have been, then the fairly familiar 40:30:10 Lab/Con/LD (10% Lab lead) configuration continues along its remorseless way, largely undisturbed. The UKIP surge has trimmed the edges off all the major parties, particularly the Tories, but I don’t detect anything remotely seismic taking place at all and comparisons with the emergence of the SDP in the early 80s are fanciful.

    Of course, those who have already written Miliband’s political obituary, or Cameron’s and Clegg’s for that matter, will pore over the innards of these polls and find the evidence they’re looking for and interpret it according to their own prejudicial agendas, but I still think opinion is pretty much ossified and largely impervious to events at present. The recent local elections provided some opportunity for the 30% of the electorate who bothered to vote to indulge in some harmless ballot box tomfoolery, but it is ludicrous to read too much into what took place then and projected national vote share figures based on those elections are for the birds, in my view. The winner in those elections, once again, were the supporters of “I Can’t be Bothered Party”. I also think Kellner is guilty of over-interpretation in his recent analysis of the polls and my hunch is that the majority of the electorate won’t get engaged in the real political issues until much nearer the election. Accordingly, the polling playing field is currently open to the political nerds and melo-dramatists (of which I’m not one, of course!).

    There was a man from the polling organisation Populus on the Radio 4 Today programme this morning and he was talking about the importance that the electorate places on Europe as a political issue. If you ask people to list, unprompted. the issues that are important to them, Europe never features in their Top 10. However, if you prompt responses on Europe as an issue, they get quite animated and express increasingly hostile views. What’s this telling us? In my view, it confirms that a lot of UKIP’s current support is made up of people who are motivated by issues other than Europe and, yet again, the Tories are banging on about an issue that resonates much more as an internal party problem than it does with the wider electorate. Silly really, because they’re laying bare their divisions over an issue that doesn’t shift significant numbers of votes. In contrast, however, perceptions of divided parties and governments do exercise voters’ minds.

  25. @ BFR

    Leading indicators:
    – Average weekly working hours
    —————
    That’s a simplified version of the added value indicator, the presumption being that hours will usually only be increased when they will generate needed productivity.

  26. Blimey, Douglas Carswell has just popped up as the voice of reason on the EU! Things are entertaining.

    I note with amusement that Dan Hodges has photocopied his usual ‘Why (insert current event) Proves Ed Miliband Is Useless’ for the Times this morning. I wish I could earn my corn from such a narrow skillset.

  27. @ BFR

    I found M&A figures pretty good in predicting upswings and incoming recessions.

    Pure output figures (rather than value added) in manufacturing also tend to work.

  28. The papers seem to be making a big deal out of the Tory Euro-split, but I can’t help wondering if it will pass by most people and won’t dent the Tories much…UNLESS things start to go downhill again on the economy.

    The Lab line about jobs being important but the Tories are wasting all their time arguing about Europe may well resonate with some people.

  29. The Office of Fair Trading are going to get some sh*t over the petrol market.

    Add that to the debacle over gas and electricity, over water and over transport and the new efficient, cheaper privatised utilities and the regulators that look after them are looking more and more of a failure, basically they have stolen what used to belong to the public and now use them to extort money from that same public.

    Petrol has never been public owned but perhaps, like the others, it SHOULD be.

  30. NickP – it’s more an opportunity cost. People don’t notice much that politicians do or say at the best of times, so if they waste those few opportunities banging on about issues people don’t give a monkey’s about then it hurts them.

    Put it this way, every day the Conservative spend talking about Europe is a day they don’t spending talking about fixing the economy, or keeping prices down or reforming public services, or cutting crime or improving education or any of those issues that people do care about.

    It’s a problem of missed opportunities, of perceptions of weakness and disunity and of looking like they care about different issues to those voters care about.

  31. NickP,

    The issue might not resonate but the impression of the government will and could renew the narrative from the omnishambles budget… There is a formula for it;

    Weak+ Divided+ Muddled= Time for a Change

    Peter

  32. Anthony,

    You can add your “Indifferent” to my formula if you like!

    Peter.

  33. Nick – petrol has been publicly owned. The government owned 51% of BP between 1915 and 1979.

  34. It’s interesting though that Labour ain’t gaining, in fact has taken a hit as the Tories decline and LD stay on the bottom.

    I don’t believe those UKIP waiverers are going back to Tory any time soon, but Lab could gain again easily. Not being quite so openly split (despite the Blairite best efforts) and not being in Government look like plusses!

  35. Anthony’s right. I think Europe comes around 10th in the list of things that people are bothered about.

  36. aw

    There you are then.

  37. AMBER
    CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%.

    These are very neat looking numbers.

    I agree, and think that they will be so attractive to voters that all future polls will show the same figures up to the GE.

    BTW I have been having a very weird selection of six TV stations in my pleasant Portuguese hotel on the waterfront during my continued spell taking the trade war to the Chinese on behalf of DC: I could select only from BBC World, France 24, Russian TV entertainment channel, similar Italian, and similar Chinese – the latter producing the most immaculately copied western rock concerts, beautiful voices, sh-tty 60’s Blue Peter presentation.
    Anyway….the point of this post is to respond to your recent exchange with a blogger – Bleriot? – who deplored the negative responses he was getting to his thinly veiled abusive language of a protagonist – no matter how hard he had tried.
    France 24 did a very good report on the debate on gay marriage in the Assembly and on the public response, notably on the far more lively language about the debate used on the social media than in the public press. I thought your correspondent might be able to use the quote given by the very nice English ex-Roedean twenty-something France 24 reporter about the blogger who managed to get home with: “Sors-toi, pauvre conne!” – which she interpreted for us as “Go away, you horrible person!”

  38. Well today’s YouGov looks like a good benchmark with nice rounded figures 30/40/10/15 which we can easily measure movement against.

    Any permanent movement down from 40 for Lab or 30 for Con would be bad bad bad for those parties (although Lab could win with 38/35/15/10 I suppose).

    It’s a bit more exciting at the moment..!

  39. @ Amber
    “[Austen’s novels] are an excellent insight to such things because, as you say, Austen does not write with the detachment of hindsight, her novels were set in her ‘real’ time.”
    [Belated response!!] Interesting.

    The other Grandes Dames of the 19th cent novel — Eliot, Brontes, Gaskell, etc — wrote about the past; same true of most men [Dickens a partial exception?]
    From late-19th century most novelists evoke the present or a [recent] past which they had experienced.

    I think (?) the same is true of Russian/French novels. Dostoyevsky or Flaubert novels may partly be seen as more “modern” because unusually they were also set in “real” not “past” time.

  40. Question for AW-
    I have noticed that Labour has lower VI amongst the 18-24 age group (and 60+ but that is expected), and the Conservatives visa versa. Is this a weighting issue, or are young people more likely to vote Conservative than those in the age 25-59 brackets?

  41. Has there ever been a polling question of whether Nick Clegg would be a better leader of the Tory party, than David Cameron ?

    It is a silly question of course, as it is not possible, but it would be interesting what the result would be.

  42. @ John P

    I agree, and think that they will be so attractive to voters that all future polls will show the same figures up to the GE.
    ———–
    LOL! That would be lovely.

    I am very happy to see that you’ve time to join us again; I hope your project is going very well.

  43. Huckle

    It would be a no for me, anyone else?

  44. Chatterclass – don’t know I’m afraid. Always a bit dubious about crossbreaks for under 25s, they are hard to poll.

  45. New thread! Horrible poll for Labour, so all the blues should rush over there & turn cartwheels. :-)

  46. No, they shouldn’t. They should all go over there and respond in the spirit of non-partisanship.

  47. @Amber Star

    “CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%.

    These are very neat looking numbers.”

    Never trust a number that ends with a five or zero.

  48. In fact not so different. In the likely to vote( as opposed to headline def vote), Labour 38 and 8 point lead.

  49. CROSSBAT11
    Good analysis.
    Lefty’s and Carfrew’s use of a ‘sysrtem’ approach to factors in VI would, I surmise, apply quite well to the irrelevance, equally seen in the results of local elections and in the EU reerendum debate, the latter being more to do with structure and a complex use of public resources which noone except the bureaucrats and specialist interest groups has any grip on.
    Systems are within our understanding if they relate to our own NHS or schools or housing, but aren’t within any manageable understanding, exercised in VI,, when it comes to bailing out Greece.