This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now up here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 30%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16% – continuing to show a boost for UKIP from their local election successes. Economic optimism also remains higher (or at least, less strongly negative) than it has been since May 2010. The rest of the poll covered immigration, europe and the monarchy.

Immigration

The public do not rate the government’s current handling of immigration – only 15% think they are doing well on the issue, compared to 75% who think they are handling it badly. Asked which party they would most trust on the issue of immigration UKIP now have a convincing lead, 30% to the Conservative’s 17% (Labour are picked by only 12%).

Asked about whether some of the government’s recent proposals are workable, a large majority (80%) think fining companies who employ illegal immigrants would work and 60% think stopping illegal immigrants from receiving non-emergency health care would work. Opinion is more divided over whether requiring landlords to check the immigration status of people renting a property is practical – 48% think the idea is workable, 40% think it is not.

EU Referendum

62% of people think there should be a referendum on Europe (as usual!), with the vast majority of these thinking it should be held before the next general election (if you support something, why wait?). More interesting is that people also tend to think it would be possible for David Cameron to deliver this if he really wanted to – 48% think that Cameron would be able to get the support of other parties for a referendum if he tried, compared to 31% who think other parties would not agree to holding a referendum before the election. In practice, most people still do not expect there to be a referendum in the near future. Only 6% expect a referendum this Parliament, only 31% in the next Parliament.

Asked how they would vote if there was a referendum, at present 30% would vote to stay, 47% to leave. This is a comparatively large lead for the “OUT” vote compared to YouGov’s recent polls on the topic, although still smaller than the sort of 20 point plus leads that OUT had last year. If David Cameron renegotiated British membership, said that Britain’s interests were now protected and asked for a YES vote, people continue to say they would vote to remain in the EU in by 45% to 32% (the key difference is Conservative voters, who would currently vote to leave, but say they would vote to stay if Cameron renegotiated and recommended a yes vote. In practice, of course, this would depend on whether Cameron could sell whatever he negotiated to his supporters).

Monarchy

A majority (53%) of people think the Queen should remain in her role for life, compared to 33% who think she should abdicate. Asked specifically about what should happen if the Queen were to become too ill to carry out her duties 48% think she should then abdicate, 43% think she should continue as Queen even if many day-to-day duties were carried out by other members of the royal family. This is a turnaround from March when a majority wanted to see the Queen continue even if too ill to carry out her functions. There has also been a significant shift in attitudes towards Prince Charles – 50% of people now think that he will make a good King when the time comes, up from 37% when YouGov asked the same question back in May 2012.

My guess is that the two shifts are not unconnected – the drip-drip of news stories of the Queen cutting down on engagements, stopping flying and Prince Philip’s stays in hospital (perhaps too the abdication of Queen Beatrix or even the death of Baroness Thatcher, who was very close in age to the Queen) is gradually making people consider the Queen’s future, and making them consider Charles as her successor. It has previously been reported that the Queen sees the monarchy as a lifelong duty and that she would never abdicate, but public opinion does seem to be gradually preparing itself for the point when she is no longer Queen.


382 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 30, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 16”

1 2 3 8
  1. Survation are tweeting about a poll they’ve done for the Tories showing UKIP on course to win 8 constituencies. Sounds dodgy to me, but have you got any news about it Anthony?

  2. Quincel – not a poll, its adding up local election votes within Parliamentary constituencies and using that as a prediction for the next general election.

    Sigh.

  3. Re the Queen. Surely she will want to continue for at least another two years when she will overtake Victoria as the longest-serving British monarch? That I think is the date the Queen and Prince Philip have as a target to work to.

  4. Pretty much the only realistic chance for UKIP winning any seats is if they pick their strongest seat from last time, run Nigel Farage as a candidate, and concentrate all their resources there.

  5. Interesting and clearly indicates the rise of UKIP is good news for Labour at a GE under FPTP as transfer support from the Tories and LD outweighs that from Labour by 6:1

    The Approval ratings were also interesting out of the Four Parties only the Tories now think the Government is doing a Good job.

    UKIP’s supporters disapproval rating at 85% is nearly as high as Labour’s

  6. Its all looking stable in the polls circa, 9 point Lab lead, lib dems circa 10pts, UKIP circa 15pts.

    I dont expect much to change in the next few weeks. The next by-election could be the next event to change the polls.

  7. Michael Gove on manoeuvre’s on the AM show today.

    Cameron needs to watch His back.

  8. Poll pretty much in line with Rosie and Daise’s Hummocky Hill predictions. Its uncanny.

  9. 2% of UKIP supporters would vote to remain in the EU. Who are these people and have they joined by mistake?

  10. Ed Miliband is not even popular with in his own voters as 26% rate him as doing fairly or very badly. DC with only got 10% of his own voters saying the same. Nick Clegg is on 43%, wow.

    Nick Clegg is in big trouble, and Ed, how will “undeciders” be attracted to him, if a massive 26% of his own party dont even rate him?

  11. So only a minority believe that there will be a ref in the next Parliament, it is as I suspected most folk don’t think that DC is sincere about this.

  12. Richard – false logic (your assumption may very well be true, but we can’t tell it from this poll result as we know from previous polling that most people don’t expect the Conservatives to win the next election, so wouldn’t expect Cameron to be in a position to deliver it anyway)

  13. Interesting how equal marriage hasn’t really changed at all. Most are still in favour of, it, particularly the the younger two age brackets, and most still favour it being brought in this year. I suspect it is not the issue some of the Tory opponents make it out to be in terms of driving people away to UKIP from the Tories.

  14. Has any polls been published on the popularity of HS2, bear in mind it is costing £40bn and no doubt costs will escalate?

  15. Colin

    FPT

    Spending at garden centres going up?
    Is that what you call “green shoots”?

  16. AW

    Yes I know, I was just trolling a bit

  17. Lefty

    That is completely different poll. Comparing appples with oranges again.

    26% is ONLY the Labour voters, 26% think he is doing “Badly & Fairly badly” ie Even his own party dont rate him.
    I bet Tony Blair in 1997 did not have many in his own party of the opinion he was doing ” Badly”

    The conservative figure is only 10% and they are in power.

    This GE is far from over.

  18. “2% of UKIP supporters would vote to remain in the EU. Who are these people and have they joined by mistake?”

    I tend to think you can get at least a couple of percentage points of people who’ll say any old rubbish…

  19. @Niall

    “I suspect it is not the issue some of the Tory opponents make it out to be in terms of driving people away to UKIP from the Tories”

    I disagree.

    Tory vote share has dropped significantly since 2010. UKIP has grown significantly. Look at the “strongly oppose” column for each party and compare current voting intention to 2010 votes. Current Tory and Labour voters are less likely to strongly oppose equal marriage, Lib Dem voters are now more likely to strongly oppose and UKIP voters are 43% strongly opposed, the highest by far of any party.

    So the conclusion is this measure moved Tory and Labour voters to UKIP, and Tories picked up some Lib Dem voters. Or that people who chose UKIP for other reasons are more opposed to this measure. Suspect it is a bit of both.

  20. Back to the poll first what do you UKIP voters think?

    78% think DC is doing badly
    83% think EB
    88% think NC is doing badly

    From those figures, it doesn’t look like their voters will be back to main 3 parties anytime soon.

    The Lib Dems
    45% think that DC is doing “well”
    26% think EM is doing “well”

    So maybe their voters will be swayed more towards DC than EM.

    87% of the Conservatives think DC is doing “well” so looks like they will be sticking with the party, ie their poll rating should have bottomed, an may increase a bit.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

    Worth a read.

  21. Of course there should be a polling question on whether DC is believed about his referendum promise seeing as it will be a central plank of their election campaign “only the Tories will deliver an in/out referendum” is something I’ve seen a lot of

  22. Dan

    Look at that link again. Look at QS 4/5 & 7

    Q4/5: 47% VI for the Tories.

    Q7: If the Tories win the GE, who would make the better PM.
    Thatcher, 33%, Heath 55% DK 12%

    So at the very least, a significant minority of Tory voters weren’t sure that Thacther would be any better than Heath. Which is about as damning an opinion as it was possible to have! And that was within 6 months of her winning a decent majority.

    And yes, the Winter of Discontent happened in the meantime. But it didn’t shift Thatcher’s personal standing. By the last week of the 79 GE campaign, Callagham headed Thatcher by 50-31 on the question, “Who would make better PM?”

    The conclusion is clear. The Tories won in 79 DESPITE Thatcher. She was a personal liability. So, when faced with a Govt that appears to have failed, and has presided over a weak economy, an Opposition can win despite having a leader who is unloved.

    And hey! Who knows? EM may even end up having a ceremonial funeral in 35 years time, after proving to be the Saviour of His Country. Stranger things have happened…

  23. As recommended by PoliticalBetting: some of you may like this:

    http://ifyoulikeitsomuchwhydontyougolivethere.com/generator/gen2.html

    rgdsm

  24. Dan

    I guess you’re fairly new to this site, so welcome.

    Your comments on the opinions of the Leaders of party supporters show some clear top-line info, but this doesn’t really tell us much more than we already know.

    UKIP supporters are disillusioned with all the main parties
    The rump of LD supporters than have remained with that party are sympathetic to the Govt.

    I’ve been digging a little deeper than that for a couple of years now, and looking at the opinions of the really Importnat group of voters; the 2010 LD supporters who no longer support that party. Given the very low amount of movement between Lab and Con directly, the votes of the Lost LDs will be very influential in 2015.

    You can estimate the opinions of the Lost LDs by calculating how many current LD supporters hold a view, and subtracting this figure from the number of 2010 LD supporters who held that view. It’s not perfect, because it ignores the (very small) number of people who have become LD supporters since 2010. But over time, it probably gives a decent stab at estimating Lost LD views.

    With this approach, for 2.5 years, the Lost LDs have had a significantly less negative opinion of EM than they have of DC or NC. Typically, their net opinion of EM has been ~-15-30%, whilst the net figures for DC and NC have been in the minus 50-60% and minus 70-80% territory respectively.

    In today’s poll, the figures are

    DC
    Well: 20%
    Badly: 74%
    Net: -54%

    EM
    Well: 29%
    Badly: 56%
    Net: -27%

    NC
    Well: 13%
    Badly: 84%
    Net: -71%

    Conclusion? The Lost LDs don’t much care for any leader. Which means that they are unlikely to be basing their vote on their opinions of the leaders. And if they DO hive weight to their opinions of the leaders, they have FAR less negative opinions of EM than they do of NC or DC. Which means that discussion of EM’s failings are not terribly Importnat in regard of how this crucial constituency will vote.

  25. Martyn

    They’ve nearly got it right. But comparing those comments to ones on the DM website, I reckon the random generator’s spelling is a mite too good, and the opinions a tad too liberal.

  26. Lefty

    26% of Labours own voters, and 46% of the Lib Dems own voters think they are doing a bad job. However you look at it those figures are not good, and they are the type of people who could switch VI, to the Torys or UKIP.

  27. LEFTY:
    Good afternoon from an emotional Old Trafford. Polls showed that AF was doomed in 1989, but he came through in the end.

    My memories of 1978-79 differ from you. I remember grudging respect for ‘Maggie’ in Manchester, when I was starting my long teaching career.

    DAN THE MAN.
    I agree with you; that the Tories could well pick up soft UKIP and LD support when it comes down to the day of reckoning in just under two years time.

    Ed has done well to shore up the ‘core’ support, but as Peter Mandelson has pointed out recently, Ed is not doing enough to appeal to natural tories. The ‘35% strategy’ is flawed, imho, as they say here.

    SEASONS IN THE SUN by Dominc Sandbrook on the UK 1974-79 is brilliant by the way, sad and anger-making also.

  28. ChrisL

    Whatever your personal recollections are, they don’t agree with the polling data.

  29. @STEVE
    Michael Gove on manoeuvre’s on the AM show today.
    Cameron needs to watch His back.
    ********

    Perhaps he should watch his front….

    For Brutus is an honourable man…so are they all, all honourable men….

  30. @ Dan the Man

    The LIb Dems who think their party is doing a bad job are likely to be committed Lib Dems who are uncomfortable with the compromises made with the Tories in coalition. I would suggest these voters are not liable to switch further right, more likely to go Green or possibly Labour (although i would think they would have done so already if going to).

    Cheers
    BFR

  31. AW

    “false logic ”

    Now that’s not something you get here very often.

    ChrisL

    “The ’35% strategy’ is flawed, imho, as they say here.”

    O dear: I missed that announcement.

  32. @ Anthony, RiN

    Richard – false logic (your assumption may very well be true, but we can’t tell it from this poll result as we know from previous polling that most people don’t expect the Conservatives to win the next election, so wouldn’t expect Cameron to be in a position to deliver it anyway)
    —————-
    It may be false logic but wasn’t it you who told us: Never underestimate the public’s ability to hold two conflicting opinions at the same time. :-)

  33. Ed Miliband is not even popular with in his own voters as 26% rate him as doing fairly or very badly. DC with only got 10% of his own voters saying the same. Nick Clegg is on 43%, wow.
    Nick Clegg is in big trouble, and Ed, how will “undeciders” be attracted to him, if a massive 26% of his own party dont even rate him?

    Irrelevance at a GE Jim Callaghan was more popular than Mrs Thatcher in 1979 and John Major out scored His own party significantly in terms of Popularity in 1997.
    The only genuinely popular PM’s were Blair in 1997 and 2001 and Thatcher in 1987

    However, We don’t elect PM’s in this Country .

    Cameron as the Prime Minister of a Coalition government (please remember the Tories didn’t win in 2010) has the unenviable position where nearly 40% of those supporting Conservative or LD rate him as doing badly.

    EM is actually more Popular (well to be accurate less unpopular) with Conservative and Liberal Democrat Voters than DC is with Labour voters

  34. @ RiN

    Yes I know, I was just trolling a bit
    ————–
    You can’t be trolling
    If your comment’s about polling. ;-)

    Where’s the poetry monitor when we need him?

  35. @ Dan the man

    “26% of Labours own voters, However you look at it those figures are not good, and they are the type of people who could switch VI, to the Torys or UKIP..”

    As a member of the Labour Party my guess would be that a large proportion of that 26% are those who think that Ed is not taking the party left enough, so they certainly would not vote Tory or UKIP. They might not vote at all but in all likelihood at a GE they will still vote Labour as the best of a bad bunch.

  36. Quincel

    Survation are tweeting about a poll they’ve done for the Tories showing UKIP on course to win 8 constituencies. Sounds dodgy to me, but have you got any news about it Anthony

    Well they say it’s for the Sun rather than the Tories, but as Anthony said all they did was add up the relevant County Council votes to see who’s ‘won’ those particular constituencies. Usually the BBC does this sort of thing in a “just a bit of fun” manner, though they didn’t this time possibly because so many constituencies had no or incomplete voting and many County divisions are split between constituencies[1]

    The actual report with link to tables is here:

    http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

    Of course people vote differently in local and national elections and turnout is much higher in a general election (maybe double). So it’s not much of a predictor – at best it indicates stronger areas for UKIP without forecasting a win.

    I was actually surprised it was only 8 constituencies, with only one (Boston and Skegness) with significant lead over 10%. Once again it shows how evenly spread most of the UKIP vote is.

    [1] Survation seem to split the vote for these pro-rate, but that assumes the various Parties’ vote is evenly spread through the division.

  37. amber

    “Where’s the poetry monitor?”

    The poetry monitor’s resting at ‘ome
    Trying to make up the words for a pome

  38. Amber

    It was trolling, I wrote a line saying exactly what AW said but then deleted it! I was deliberately being provocative

    I’m not ashamed, I would do it again(yellow blobby thing)

  39. Being popular & doing a good job aren’t the same thing.

    Actually Ed M is said to be very likeable. Labour supporters who aren’t keen have two reasons:
    1. Many of them voted New Labour for years; now Ed M is saying NL were a bit rubbish at some things. That is not going to win him a popularity contest with all the Labour supporters but, IMO, he’s made the choice to change the Party’s position on some issues & that has a cost. IMO, he prefers it to be a personal cost, rather than a cost to the Labour Party.
    2. Some supporters would like to see more policies; or a clearer commitment to some policy positions which Labour are taking but with the wiggle room of: we’ll have to see where things are in 2015. Many people are, IMO, weary of pragmatism & want some certainty; i.e. a government which intends to achieve its stated policies despite the future circumstances.
    3. Despite my opener, some people see: Good at his job* but substitute – Is Ed M likeable/ liked/ popular with people? And there’s never any shortage of people saying he isn’t so it becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophesy.

    * The Opposition leader’s showcase for being good at his job is PMQs (from the perspective of the Party’s MPs); it’s said Cameron has been dodging PMQs lately & this hasn’t been good for Ed M (which is possibly at least part of the reason why Dave is avoiding them, if he really is).

  40. Anthony,

    You forgot to mention Pope Benedict stepping down on largely health grounds as well.

    Oh and for those who aren’t up here, Labour is to launch it’s own “No” campaign in Scotland be to fronted by Gordon Brown.

    Peter.

  41. @ RiN

    Politicians’ ability to keep their promises (i.e. be sincere) is very low. On a Party basis, only 21% say Labour will keep their promises & only 14% say the Conservatives will. It’s reasonable to assume that an EU referendum is quite high on the list of promises which people expect not to kept.

    That’s why I assumed you were talking polling, not trolling. Although I recall that Norway was the country in which trolls were said to live when I was a kid. :-)

  42. @ Peter Cairns

    Oh and for those who aren’t up here, Labour is to launch it’s own “No” campaign in Scotland be to fronted by Gordon Brown.
    —————
    Thanks for the update, if it’s true. The last I heard, the Labour ‘no’ campaign was to be led by Anas Sarwar.

  43. @ Croftee

    LOL. Gud’un.

  44. LEFTY

    NIce one !

  45. What we actually boil down to, is we have a current set of leaders who arnt particularly inspiring to the electorate. How this might affect the GE is unclear at the moment. I still think this is worse for EM, as you would to an extent expect a leader opposing spending cuts to have a much higher rating, and 26% of his own voters viewing him poorly is pretty staggering to be honest.

    Viewing the 62% of people in favour of a referendum, do we just have to accept that we are a far more euro sceptic country than most of mainland Europe?

  46. CL1945

    @”SEASONS IN THE SUN by Dominc Sandbrook on the UK 1974-79 is brilliant by the way, sad and anger-making also.”

    It is -as are his other two histories:-

    State of Emergency. The Way We Were:Britain -1970-1974

    and

    White Heat-a history of Britain 1964-70

    Just finished the last one.

    An incredible detailed look at our history over those seminal 15 years.

    Superb.

  47. @ Peter Cairns

    I’ve just checked the Scotland on Sunday report which says:

    “GORDON Brown will return to front-line political campaigning tomorrow by spearheading Labour’s bid to keep Scotland within the UK, Scotland on Sunday can reveal….
    “However, he is not expected to officially lead the Labour pro-UK campaign and will not to be given a title…
    “Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader and the campaign’s co-ordinator, said: “We are excited about putting forward our case for Scotland in the United Kingdom based on Labour values of solidarity, community, fairness , equality and social justice.””

    Gordon Brown will speak at the Glasgow launch of the ‘no’ campaign. BTW Alistair Darling spoke at the Edinburgh launch on Saturday 4th. The Surgeon’s hall was packed; standing room & not everybody was able to get in.

  48. @peter,

    Are you being serious about Gordon Brown heading up a no campaign? I might revise your chances! :-)

1 2 3 8