The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures and they confirm the UKIP boost we saw in yesterday’s poll. Topline voting intention is CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%.

The 17 points for UKIP is, obviously, once again their highest. This has a knock on effect for Labour and the Conservatives: the Labour score of 38% is the lowest that YouGov have shown them at for over a year (the last time they were that low was February 2012), the Conservative score of 27% is the lowest YouGov have shown them this Parliament (and, indeed, ever – you have to go back to before YouGov started regular polling in 2002 to find that sort of level of Tory support).


504 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 27, LAB 38, LD 11, UKIP 17”

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  1. Tory MPs could be allowed to vote against the Queen’s Speech next week as a row over an EU referendum deepens.

    -So assuming Labour do to could this trigger a vote of no confidence and bring forward the GE?

    I don’t think so but One lives in Hope!

  2. Must admit Cammo is good value when he gets all red-faced and rattled by Balls’ off-mic asides. “Chillax, have a glass of wine” etc…

  3. Radical cleric Abu Qatada would voluntarily return to Jordan if the Jordanian government ratifies a treaty drawn up with the UK government, a court has heard.

    The treaty deals with the use of evidence obtained by torture.

    Abu Qatada’s lawyer, Edward Fitzgerald QC, told the court of the decision during a hearing to decide whether he should be released on bail.

    -Is He a Tory Supporter?

    Let’s see how Theresa May Handles that little bomb shell

  4. “The UK collapsed back into recession in the first quarter of 2012 using the technical definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
    However, new estimates of construction industry activity in the first three months of 2012 suggest that the economy only flatlined. As a result, technically, there may never have been a double dip.
    The ONS now believes that output in the quarter contracted by 5pc, not the 5.4pc previously thought. In terms of levels of GDP, it has revised construction output for the quarter up by £108m to £25.273bn.
    Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec, has calculated that an increase of just £70m in national output in the first three months of 2012 would cause growth to be revised from -0.1pc to 0.0pc.
    All else being equal, the construction industry revisions would suggest that the economy did deliver just enough activity to escape the technical double dip recession.

    “As things stand, the revisions to the construction data mean that the UK didn’t double dip over the back end of 2011 and beginning of 2012,” Mr Shaw said.

    Confirmation will not come until June, when the ONS makes its next official revisions of past estimates, and any future change to the past growth in services or industrial production could offset the gains made by construction.”

    DT

  5. However, new estimates of construction industry activity in the first three months of 2012 suggest that the economy only flatlined.

    -Well that’s a relief break open the Bollinger

  6. STEVE

    @”Let’s see how Theresa May Handles that little bomb shell”

    Considering the effort she expended in setting up an end to this man’s legal wriggle room-a new pair of shoes I should think.

  7. @Steve

    Yep, were booming all along and didn’t notice!! We can reverse all those cuts now….

  8. STEVE

    @”Well that’s a relief break open the Bollinger”

    It has -like its rapidly disappearing counterpart- political significance, but no economic significance.

  9. CARFREW

    @”Yep, were booming all along and didn’t notice!! ”

    Flatlining actually.

    But we will know in June.-one year after the first estimates !!

  10. @COLIN

    “Flatlining actually.”

    ——–

    Oh. That’s a disappointment. I could’ve got all excited there for a moment…

  11. Why is DC voting with the Tory rebels?

    If he wants a referendum why doesn’t he put that in a Gov’t bill and then see the libs etc vote against.

    Voting against his own Government is not a good look.

  12. Mark Johnson

    This is what I mean – just some random names but not any reasoning

    For me the three of them were slightly deranged megalomaniacs with psychopathic tendencies (not an uncommon feature in top business leaders as well apparently).

    Have any of them been any good – I think the conclusion from me would be absolutely not – so perhaps someone who doesn’t fit your criteria would be a better bet on actually being good at the job instead of ‘looking Prime Ministerial’

  13. @colin,

    Totally agree. Theresa May has made a huge effort on this one and if she gets there, then she has achieved what no Labour Labour Home Secretary did. This is not an easy one given how the ECHR works, but get ready for some sniping if she does succeed! (and sniping if she doesn’t)

  14. So what would help mums stay at home?
    ————–
    An end to the scroungers & skivers rhetoric would be a good start. An end to calling single women greedy, sponging breeders would help too.

    But most parents aren’t going to stay at home. The economic disadvantages linked to doing so are disastrous for most women (& despite Dan the Man, it is mostly women). Their career role, salary & pension simply never comes close to catching up with those who haven’t taken a career break. This affects their ability to buy a home for themselves & provide for themselves when they retire.

    And when better-off women seek redress in the courts for what will be a life-time’s economic disadvantage, the public most often side with the wealthier husband saying: The kids are at school; the lazy cow should get off her bum & find a [better] job!

    So, end the skivers & scroungers rhetoric; end the lifetime of economic disadvantage; then we can talk about all parents having the opportunity of staying at home to look after their children.

  15. DC won’t be in the UK, so he can’t vote.

    Lesson from reading the Sun…

  16. @LASZLO

    So basically DC has put it about that he will vote for a referendum but ‘oh what a pity he is not going to actually be in the UK’ very clever and/or manipulative.

  17. @ Colin, Rich

    Which bit of ‘Qatada’s lawyer said it at a BAIL hearing’ passed you by?

    At any actual hearing, the lawyer will say ‘my client was simply trying to avoid being incarcerated again, separated from his family again, when he has committed no crimes.

    And Qatada will be a hero, he has ‘forced’ the UK & Jordan to sign a specific anti-torture treaty drawing attention to the alleged torture of witnesses in Jordan.

    This is the first – & probably last time that I shall venture a comment on this – quite frankly I think there is more to this than meets the eye. Theresa May is playing her part in it well but IMO, she will not ‘succeed’ in having Qatada permanently excluded from the UK because, despite what the public are led to believe, that is not the aim.

  18. @Ken
    “I agree that Ed M is beginning to look Prime-Ministerial, he should be, it cost a fortune in plasticine to make him”

    Do I detect a hint of jealousy?

    @All
    I am off to a party so can’t reply to you all.

  19. @ Couper2802

    Or the Sun tries to manipulate. But I don’t know.

    Found it more interesting that Rifkin came out against Lawson and Portillo. The Conservatives played this one during Major with little success. Oh well conviction politicians.

    However, considering the current public mood Labour will have to say something this time (AD has done it, but not enough), because it won’t go away save a miracle economic growth in the EU with high pound exchange rate to buy cheap cigies and wine.

  20. @Paul Croft

    Thats because I’m right Paul, as you know.

  21. @ Amber

    While I agree with your points and liked the building of the logic, surely the first question is: why should mothers stay at home with the child beyond a certain, very young age (and parallel with this why should kids go to school at 4 – my view is that they shouldn’t go to school until they are 6)?

    Psychology cannot agree on this, although there’s some evidence that wider social interactions are beneficial to them at around 3. So, if it wasn’t a political game, the discussion would be about building up the infrastructure (small, up to 40 kids in groups with highly skilled staff (not primarily about safety, but teaching such young children to vocabulary, music, nature, art, existence in peer groups, etc).

    So, I think the women-children question will remain a political game or women will have to break through the false dichotomy.

  22. If the Public were asked.

    Do you want the removal of your right to retire to a Sunny Country unless you have very large amounts of disposable income .

    I suspect the result of any referendum on Europe would be very different to that which is now being portrayed in the Media.

    Unless we became members of the EEA (Like Norway) where we will have to comply with all EU legislation and pay for the privilege without any representation then we could see the return of over 1 million pensioners and a lot of very unhappy nearly pensioners to boot!

    However, Norway is in a stronger position regarding it’s relationship as it was never in the EU in the first place.

    Who knows what terms of residency the EU might wish to impose on the UK if it mucks them about .

  23. Steve – at some point I remember asking a survey that asked half the sample of they thought British people should or should not have the right to go and live and work in other EU countries, and the other half if EU citizens should have the right to come and live and work here, with predictably contrasting results….

  24. @ Steve

    That belongs to the debate and not the question. Obviously, raising the issue of the EEA will put UKIP and those Tories who are their friends in an extremely difficult position – if they say that exit and EEA, it becomes meaningless. If they say neither, it is an extremely difficult position (I would argue impossible) for the next few governments, MPs and business (export and imports would stop as there wouldn’t be valid customs duties).

    There might be merits in leaving the EU, but it is not feasible (without joining the EEA (or becoming the 51st state of the US or a province of some other country.

  25. Given it was the Tories who took us into Europe In the first place, and now many of them are keen to take us out, if we leave are they going to want to take us back in again in a decade or two?…

  26. @ Laszlo

    The current childcare conversation is predicated on such care being for the short-term economic benefit of the parent(s) & society. It is all about cost & nothing about the benefits of having a low child to carer ratio AND the carers having good qualifications.

    Politicians are having problems with the immigration debate; they do not want to add to their problems by saying parents are not the best people to care for their own children! This used to be the view in the UK, BTW.

    Sending children away to boarding school was good for them; wanting to send your children away was aspirational. The Queen, a much respected ‘working’ mother with huge resources, sent her children away!

  27. Carfrew,

    I’m pretty sure Britain has been part of Europe for quite some time.

    It was the Tories who brought us into the EEC, but I’ve heard that the EEC doesn’t exist anymore. They brought us into the Maastricht Treaty, which is also history now.

    The debate is over whether or not we should be part of a post-Lisbon EU.

  28. Actually, the leaving of the EU debate (when/if it starts) remind me to some interesting questions for the Scottish referendum. If Scotland becomes independent, presumably it would have to take its share of the UK debt. I tried to find anything about it, but failed. I suppose it would influence public opinion.

    While I have no intention to draw parallels, the origin of the Yugoslav war was Slovenia’s attempt to become independent without debt (with the support of the newly united Germany).

  29. @Bill

    Thanks for that. My way was quicker and clearly you knew what I meant. Now if you’d like to address my point…

  30. @ Ken
    I agree that Ed M is beginning to look Prime-Ministerial, he should be, it cost a fortune in plasticine to make him……

    Presumably your plastic wife Barbie cost even more to manufacture — to reply with a joke even older than yours.

    I think you should explain why the Co-Op bank maybe foundering — or have you run out of excuses for Brit.bankers.

  31. @ Bill Patrick
    and I wonder how many Labour supporters would rather we left the EU but simply arn’t as open and vocal like some Conservatives seem to be.
    Rather a lot I would like to bet!

  32. Ken

    A mate of mine has bet me substantial amount of money that I wouldn’t be able to cope with living like rich people do for a whole month – so I thought of your apartment overooking the Thames and your fleet of clippers, chatting about footy etc.

    For me its about the glory of winning, not the money so you could keep that, I’m not bothered.

    July would be good for me – how about you?

    Paul

    PS There’s a tenner in it for you – maybe a bit more.

  33. A bit like all Political Parties will have good things and b ad things in their Policies to suit most people (apart from the totally blinkered)
    Well I think the same applies to the EU – some things are good and others certainly not – I believe the whole EU project has gone too far for some people and the powers that be need to accept we need to at the very least take a step back and re-invent some aspects of the ‘dream’ before there is an implosion or explosion – take your pick!

  34. @ Amber

    Thanks – yes, it looks like how you described.

  35. @” think you should explain why the Co-Op bank maybe foundering — or have you run out of excuses for Brit.bankers.”

    An interesting one.

    Just as well they pulled out of buying those 600 Lloyds branches!

    Unions in a spin about it-they have a significant interest . CWU calling for a “public enquiry” ?. It is for shareholders & the new PRA to hold Bank Directors to account ( or whatever the equivalent of shareholders in in the case of the CO-Op Bank)

    Moody’s seems not convinced that they can fix the undercapitalisation via asset sales-we will see what the PRA says-first big test for them.

  36. Carfrew,

    Your way of expressing your point was quicker and also misleading: one does not simply take a country into the EU. Instead, there have been a variety of institutuional arrangements over the last 40 years that governments have entered into. The Tories can’t take us out of the EEC, because they already did so in the early 1990s by dissolving the EEC.

    Therefore, someone can consistently think that (a) it was right to enter into the EEC in 1975 and (b) it is wrong to be in the post-Lisbon EU right now. Maybe if the EU radically changed into something radically different, that same person could consistently believe that (c) we should enter into that new arrangement.

    Mark Johnson,

    Denis Healey is at least one who has become more vocal. I don’t think he is inconsistent for having been a staunch voice of sensible pro-Europeanism in the 1980s’ Labour party and now speaking out against the contemporary EU.

  37. The Cooperative Bank plc is wholly owned by Co-operative Banking Group Ltd, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Cooperative Group Ltd, which is run & owned by it’s 6 m members.

    Unity Trust Bank Plc provides specialist banking services to trades unions and charities in the United Kingdom.Individual trades unions and federations own a majority 73.23% of the bank. The Co-operative Bank Plc, which supplied management expertise in the initial launch period, owns a 26.66% stake.

  38. @ Colin

    The troubles of Co-op in financial arms are manifold. There are generic problems with their business model, some management problems too. In the last two years it started to go to panic mode, which didn’t help.

    But of course public enquiry is nonsense and the members’ enquiry wouldn’t help either. But they will have to mobilise support if they want to rebuild the business, because the problem is not simply recapitalisation

  39. Laszlo

    Moody’s identifies most of its risks as steming from Britannia Building Society, which it acquired in 2009. Moody’s said the Co-op under-estimated the risks of the acquisition, especially against the backdrop of weak economic conditions.
    It added: ‘Moreover, the bank’s ability to generate the earnings needed to replenish capital, if higher losses materialise, is diminished by its slow progress in realising merger-related revenue and cost benefits.’

    Moody’s calculated that the Co-op’s ‘problem loan ratio’ had increased to 10.9 per cent at the end of 2012 from 8.1 per cent in 2011, reflecting a deterioration in its commercial property portfolio.

    Speculation is that the capital shortfall will be assessed at around £1bn.

    I hope the Labour Party’s overdraft is safe !

  40. ……….and political donations too !!

  41. @ Colin

    There’s enough cash in the Co-op Group. So it’s not a problem, but the volume of the business is not big enough to finance non-interest expenses (and cannot be cut sufficiently). So they have a sales problem. They would need a very different approach to the market (and not generic customer relations).

  42. This may have been mentioned already but…

    Con 27%
    UKIP 17%
    Total Centre-right/right: 44%

    LD – Centre 11%

    Labour – Centre left/left 38%

    Who said the political spectrum in the UK is “shifting left”?

  43. LASZLO

    @”There’s enough cash in the Co-op Group. So it’s not a problem”

    I think you are wrong.

    Moody’s identifies a capital shortage. So does the CooP Bank-its parent is trying to sell its life insurance and general insurance operations to fund the Bank.

    Moody’s say this will not be enough-even if those sales are achieved.

    The PRA ( which told other Banks last month they need to raise £20bn ) will have the final say.

  44. So the capitalist banks are in deep trouble because of their greedy, grasping management.

    It seems the socialist bank isn’t so different?

    Or could it be that the banks aren’t quite so responsible for their own (and everyone else’s misfortunes) as is normally characterised/caricatured?

  45. Steve2,

    The complicated story that’s in the British attitudes surveys is that Britain has moved to the left on many issues (e.g. homosexuality and race) and to the right on many other issues (e.g. nationalisation and taxation).

  46. Laszlo

    This is from Moody’s report :-

    “Moody’s believes that Co-operative Bank is unlikely to be able to generate a significant amount of capital through earnings. As such, to maintain capital ratios at the level required to satisfy its ongoing regulatory objectives, Moody’s would expect to see the bank deleveraging its balance sheet and receiving additional support from its parent (Co-operative Banking Group Ltd (unrated)) following their announcement to dispose some assets, such as its life and general insurance businesses. Moody’s believes that there is material uncertainty as to whether these actions alone will be sufficient to maintain the capital base at the required level given the losses the bank may experience in its non-core portfolio.

    The review for further downgrade will allow Moody’s to examine the effectiveness of the bank’s plan to strengthen its capital structure, improve profitability and reduce its cost base once the full implications of the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) review are known by the bank, which is not expected until end-May 2013.”

  47. NEILA

    Bad lending & crap management is the Bad lending & crap management whatever the political affiliations of the bank.

  48. @Bill

    Completely off the point. I was just asking about them taking us back in again which you said nothing about.

  49. @Amber,

    I think the biggest problem is that stay-at-home mums are now looked down upon. I think both the left and right are to blame for this.

  50. AMBI

    I agree.

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