The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures and they confirm the UKIP boost we saw in yesterday’s poll. Topline voting intention is CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%.

The 17 points for UKIP is, obviously, once again their highest. This has a knock on effect for Labour and the Conservatives: the Labour score of 38% is the lowest that YouGov have shown them at for over a year (the last time they were that low was February 2012), the Conservative score of 27% is the lowest YouGov have shown them this Parliament (and, indeed, ever – you have to go back to before YouGov started regular polling in 2002 to find that sort of level of Tory support).


504 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 27, LAB 38, LD 11, UKIP 17”

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  1. D’y’know, this isn’t even funny. UNS on Mr Wells’s calculator gives Labour a 108 seat majority, but it won’t be UNS: with UKIP concentrated on the south east and east, LD holding up in SW, SNP in Scotland, the various in NI, Labour up in both norths and yorks, Plaid in Wales, the only place where it’s a straight lab-con fight are the midlandses…where Lab is in the lead. It’s a Tory perfect storm: c’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la politique.

    rdsm

  2. Even if the Cons and UKIPs merged to get 44%, that would give an OM for the united side of 8 seats.

    I think we’re in for many months of “It’s the economy stupid”.

  3. UKIP are not negligible in the South-West as well – “It’s the fish, stupid”.

  4. The Tories are kippered.

  5. Any data on how data like this would translate to real votes?

  6. @PeteB

    I can’t help but think that UKIP being non-negligible in the South-West is the reason why LDs are holding up there…

  7. It is not as simple as a straight UKIP to Tory swing. If you look at the data of 2010 vote to current VI, you will see that UKIP takes votes from all 3 parties, although a greater no. of Conservative 2010 voters. Some of the hatred felt by ex-Tories seems quite visceral. Not sure they will all return in 2015.

  8. @Statgeek

    …and of course, if they did merge, Labour would return to the forties as that’s the ideal way to alienate the minority of 2010 Labour voters from voting UKIP.

  9. Being totally straight, I think UKIP are taking from Lab as well as Con, although obviously mostly from the former.

    Funny how UKIP have 1.7 x the Lib Dem amount in the poll, and yet that probably won’t lead to a seat!

    pS, no response from TOH – is that because he feels he lost the argument from previous thread?

  10. @Chatterclass

    Yes, but when it’s 75% odd from Con, it’s safe to talk in terms of how the UKIP>Con swing with change things.

  11. *will change things

  12. @David Anthony

    Any data on how data like this would translate to real data? :P

  13. @Martyn:
    This came up in the other recent threads. The strongest UKIP support tends to be in the South and the Midlands (20% or better), followed by the North (mid-teens). In London and Scotland, it tends to be down <10%, and I presume Wales is a similar story. I also suspect that support in NI is negligible.

    For the moment, this puts Labour at risk of dropping to third in the South (probably amid a Tory romp in the region, regardless of their bad position nationally). In Scotland, the Tories are largely a non-factor…but there's nothing new there.

    It's not really a "perfect storm" for the Tories: They had weak support in Scotland and Wales before and continue to do so. Ditto in the North. The Midlands look like a dead heat to me (Wales being a weak spot but being shoved in with the Midlands), and London isn't looking too good, either. So it would be a bad result…but it also wouldn't be a blowout.

    I would be interested to see an SE/SW breakout of the South (and remind me: Does "Rest of South" include any parts of Wales?), as well as a hair more detail on the Midlands.

  14. If you look at the historical polls on the right hand side of the page for 1979-1983 perhaps that shows the trajectory we are on now.

    Back then Labour were doing quite well, 50% in the polls, then along came the Limehouse declaration, they dropped to less than 30 and took decades to recover.

    The Lib/SDP climbed from 12% to 27% to 42%, then suddenly dropped and once the Falklands war started they never really recovered.

    Back then Labour lost its core vote, now we have the Tories losing their core vote to UKIP.

    If we follow the trajectory, UKIP should start outpolling the Tories after the European elections next year, that will mark their high point, followed by a 10% collapse heading into the general election as some votes head back to the Tories for that election. Labour should win the 2015 elections comfortably, followed by an economic crisis as by then the debts will start exceeding 100% of GDP and we will have to go the IMF for a bailout (will happen no matter who wins the GE, Tories haven’t done anything to grow the economy, and Labour won’t have time/ money to invest to turn it around). Tories have pushed all the big cuts until after the election, and they are too deep to ever happen.

    Following that things should really get interesting. Hopefully a new party emerges, as the current lot are all hopeless – no vision.

  15. I wanted to know what the actual vote totals were on 2nd May as opposed to the projections so I worked them out myself:

    Actual votes cast on 2nd May in the county council and unitary council elections (using highest vote in multi-member divisions):

    Con: 2,030,456
    Lab: 1,277,535
    UKIP: 1,183,836
    LD: 818,076
    Green: 207,225
    PC: 9,021
    Others: 407,106

    Total: 5,933,255

    Percentages:
    Con: 34.22%
    Lab: 21.53%
    UKIP: 19.95%
    LD: 13.79%
    Green: 3.49%
    PC: 0.15%
    Others: 6.86%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0

    Rallings & Thrasher national projections:
    Lab: 29%
    Con: 26%
    UKIP: 22%
    LD: 13%

    Difference:
    Lab +7%
    Con -8%
    UKIP +2%
    LD -1%

  16. These are the ‘chapters’ of polling trends we’ve see during this parliament (along with the most noteworthy political events that occurred during them):

    GE 2010-late 2010 – Tory lead, Coalition relatively popular

    Late 2010-late 2011 – Labour lead, cuts begin to bite

    Late 2011-March 2012 – Labour and the Tories neck and neck, Cameron’s European veto, Labour and Miliband’s difficulties

    March 2012-present – Labour lead, unpopular budget, economy still not showing many signs of recovery, UKIP gradually gain support and breakthrough in county council elections and several by-elections

    So that’s four.

    2005-2010:

    GE 2005-late 2005 – Labour lead, Blair handles 7/7 well, Tories going through a leadership contest.

    Late 2005-April 2006 – Tories pull level with Labour, Cameron gets off to a good start, Lib Dems not the force they were a year ago due to division and leadership change

    April 2006-June 2007 – Tories take the lead, Labour go through a ‘black Wednesday’ and infighting, Tories make significant progress in local elections

    June 2007-October 2007 – Labour regain the lead, Brown has a long honeymoon

    October 2007-April 2008 – Tories take a clear lead after the ‘election that never was’ but not reallt in any landslide territory

    April 2008-September 2008 – Tories surge into a huge lead following the 10p tax row and major breakthroughs in the local elections and a victory in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election follow

    September 2008-early 2009 – Labour regain ground after the financial meltdown

    Early 2009-late 2009 – Tory lead back into landslide-like margin, expenses scandal, Labour third in votes in European elections and suffer huge losses in county council elections

    Late 2009-April 2010 – Tory lead narrows as Labour get back some core support as the general election nears, general election called

    April 2010-GE 2010 – Lib Dems surge into the high 20s/low 30s after the televised debates, ‘Duffygate’, election result is a hung parliament, Tories and Lib Dems form coalition

    That’s 10. It was suggested on Political Betting a while ago that the Fixed Terms bill (which I’m personally in favour of by the way) may have taken some of the ‘fizz’ out of voting intention patterns. I think that may be an accurate analysis, despite the UKIP surge.

  17. One thing’s for sure; If UKIP are polling at 17% close to the GE then the FPTP debate will get a new lease of life.

    Not that I’m trying to dredge it up here. I just think I’m safe in assuming it will at the relevant time (plus I don’t yet have a position either way).

  18. I’m wondering whether the UKIP rise will motivate Lord Ashcroft to do some more polling of the marginals.

    This might calm Tory nerves; UKIP may not be doing well enough to actually dislodge Tory MPs. Then again….

  19. How many seats in the South are vulnerable to the split vote letting Labour in?

  20. On those vote numbers, I’m just wondering whether there were more places without a Labour candidate, without a UKIP candidate, or both. IIRC, UKIP didn’t have candidates in a number of wards…but I also know these elections were in places that Labour often doesn’t bother to run anyone.

  21. @Amber

    I dunno how much it’ll calm their nerves becuz there may be rather more marginals now…

  22. @ Carfrew

    I dunno how much it’ll calm their nerves becuz there may be rather more marginals now…
    ———–
    LOL. I’m guessing that there’s nothing quite like the anguish of a back-bencher in a safe seat who suddenly realises his seat is no longer safe! If polling of the marginals showed they’d survive, I think they’d calm down a bit.

    But you might be correct; it could make things worse if UKIP is more concentrated in the South than I think it is.

  23. @Carfrew:
    Not a lot. IIRC from 2010, Labour is frequently an afterthought south of the Thames and it’s The Tory and LibDem Show. Now of course, this may have changed with the LDs losing a lot of support down there, but even still there are plenty of places that Labour was struggling to get into double digits last time.

    That’s why I suspect those seats are ripe for UKIP voting mischief: The odds of “letting Labour in” in a lot of cases is…well, not really on the radar unless you get a mass of LD votes heading their way. If I had to guess further, that LD support is concentrated in the general vicinity of Cornwall (which as a whole tends to be Tory/LD swing) instead of the South West (which tends to be something of a gimme for the Tories for the most part).

    And of course, these are over-generalizations. There are seats in all regions that are a lot closer or different (Labour tends to win seats in Bristol, Tories have a shot at a few seats in Scotland and the North, etc.)…but it’s handy as a rule of thumb. One way to think about it: IIRC, in 1983 Labour was dropping deposits south of the Thames like they were going out of style.

  24. Elderly working class females who voted Tory for Queen & country are now swelling the UKIP vote, at least according to my interpretation of YG cross-breaks anyways.

  25. Ratio of 2010 losses to UKIP (per YG with UKIP at 16%)

    Labour 1 (24votes) LD 2 (53votes) CON 6 (143votes)

  26. @Amber and Gray

    Yes, if one goes by the council elections I don’t suppose Tories need to be too worried in the South. I suppose what I am really wondering is that if UKip rise further, say after the Euro elections and Bulgaria/Rumania thing, at what point does that start to change. Obviously in seats where Labour poll rather low already UKip are liable to just leapfrog them…

  27. UKIP got exactly 20% on May 2nd, not adjusting for seats they didn’t stand in. Interesting that the projection was actually higher than that, at 22%.

  28. UKip have a bunch of councillors now, will be seen as less of a wasted vote, may get a further boost from Euro elections and have two years to leverage all that and develop a ground game they’ve lacked up to now. One wonders where the ceiling is…

  29. Labour have, since Nov 2010, pretty much stood still.

    You can take the Dan Hodges view: That this is a dire lack of progress;
    or
    You can take my view: That this is bl**dy remarkable, given a 4th Party surge the like of which we haven’t seen since the SDP wreaked havoc with the Labour vote back in the early days of Thatcher!

  30. “Even if the Cons and UKIPs merged to get 44%, that would give an OM for the united side of 8 seats.”
    Which in reality wouldn’t happen, much like a merger of Lib and Lab probably wouldn’t give them 49% (although if Con+UKIP merged and were polling 44%, we’d probably see a Lab/Lib electoral pact).
    But it would be a very interesting scenario to see – and given the Lib’s mistakes over AV, I suspect that a condition of a Lib/Lab pact would be PR post-election.

    On to the poll –
    Crude average of 2 polls prior to locals –
    Con 31, Lab 41.5, Lib 10, UKIP 11

    Crude average post –
    Con 28 (-3), Lab 38.5 (-3), Lib 10 (-), UKIP 16.5 (+5.5)

    Unfortunately, the Lab figure is probably misleading, since the 43 for Lab sticks out like a sore thumb.
    If we take the average of the two polls from a week before..
    Con 30, Lab 39, Lib 11, UKIP 14
    You get..
    Con -2, Lab -0.5, Lib -1, UKIP +2.5

    Unfortunately because of the missing bank holiday poll, my weighted 7-day average actually includes an extra poll (I can’t be bothered with complicated jiggery-pokery to fix it) –
    But that currently stands at (with changes on a week) –
    Con 29.7 (-1.5), Lab 39.3 (+0.2), Lib 10.2 (-0.5), UKIP 14.2 (+1.4)

    So a more complicated picture of the poll movement starts to emerge.
    If the Lab 43 hadn’t happened (and instead been 40), that would reduce the average to 39, which would be -0.3 for Lab according to weighted average and -1.5 according to a crude average.

    So it would seem that most of the support lost is from Con, not Lab – but the latest shift down to 38 for Lab (not seen since Feb 2012) would at least indicate some Lab>UKIP movement.

    The next few days are going to be interesting – immediately post-Eastleigh, it took a few days for UKIP to gain +3, but their VI continued to slowly rise up until the recent ‘Con bounce’.

  31. Just a thought, but there are five ways I can see the UKIP position on a number of NOC councils going:
    (1) They get brought into government and it “takes away the magic”, harming UKIP.
    (2) They get brought into government and screw it up, harming UKIP.
    (3) They get brought into government, perform well enough, probably reducing some of their protest potential but also giving them some legitimacy.
    (4) They get locked out of government by a Lib-Con pact (or some other mixture), allowing them to remain a defiant protest vote.
    (5) They get locked out of government, reinforcing their status as a wasted vote.

  32. 2010 LDs in today’s YouGov look a bit extreme, but a trend nonetheless. Fewer going to Lab; going home, going UKIP, going Green instead.

  33. @Billy Bob:
    You hit on something that I think has been missed: A lot of the “traditional” LD constituency of younger voters has been going Green or home rather than picking one of the main parties. Granted, some of them probably only voted last time because of Cleggmania (so they actually /will/ be no shows insofar as they wouldn’t normally have showed in the first place)…but it presents another issue for the main parties.

    One thing I’m intrigued by is the comparative support of Labour among 25-59 year olds. Just wondering, but do any other pollsters use different age breaks?

  34. @ Tinged

    But it would be a very interesting scenario to see – and given the Lib’s mistakes over AV, I suspect that a condition of a Lib/Lab pact would be PR post-election.
    —————-
    I could see the LDs retreating from PR for Westminster & even the Lords if (when?) they get slaughtered in the 2014 EU elections.

    I think they’re reeling from the discovery that so many of their voters viewed them purely as a protest vote; it seems to me that they always considered their lack of government experience to be holding them back & singularly failed to realise that it was actually a major asset.

    The LDs were in favour of equal sized constituencies & now they are not; I think PR will similarly fall by the wayside when realisation dawns that PR probably makes the LDs more, not less, vulnerable to shifts in VI.

  35. @Gray

    IpsosMORI go for

    18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+, 75+… they also give figures lumping them together (18-34, 35-54, 55+).

    From memory I think one polling company gives a 60+, 70+, 80+.

    We often see poor samples (response rates) with the 18-24 group. On the other hand the oldies are more opinionated and willing to tell you about it. 60+ is rather broad though – these days that will cover two distinct generations.

  36. @ Gray

    I think nobody will give a fig for how UKIP perform in local government unless there are major scandals or stunts from their Councillors which the local & mainstream media cannot avoid covering.

    Nobody has given a moments notice to their performance in the EU parliament notwithstanding Farage’s stunt of launching a personal attack on the EU President. I think voters taking notice of their performance in local government will be all of a piece with that.

  37. If these figures could be carried through to a GE , I Know they won’t but it’s fun to speculate.

    We would be looking at a Labour Government with a 100+ Seat Majority 30 odd Lib Dems and the Tories looking for a new leader.

    BTW UKIP would retain their present representation in parliament.

    All from a vote for the winning party of less than 1 in 5 of potential voters.

    Isn’t FPTP great!

  38. Today’s Macbeth x-break for UKIP made me smile. A big fat 0%.

  39. A UKIP-Con pact would never work. For one thing, many moderate Tories would not want to be seen with them and would defect to the LDs or stay home.

    Secondly, many of UKIP’s former Labour voters would balk at the prospect of governing with their mortal enemies and would run back to Labour or not vote.

  40. The rise of the Liberals between 1972 and 1974 in a sense helped Labour into power in 1974 – their vote being pretty much evenly spread in regions. Labour never fully recovered in the South East – it still hasn’t.

    The Heath government also began to feel like a government in power but not in control. This same feeling did for John Major. It also to some extent did for Labour between 74-79 when in the govt lost control of the political agenda after not calling the election in Oct78 & in the Winter of Discontent that followed. The same was true of GB after the election that never was… In all cases these were governments too were fixated on their party’s priorities rather than the country’s priorities.

    Were I DC the return of Europe would worry me almost more than these post local election polls. for nothing he can do or say will necessarily resolve matters politically….and we’ve 2 years left of this damaging saga to run….and the Euro elections and Scottish Independence Referendum next year.

    Both Labour and Conservatives need to be concerned – Labour that its vote has slipped significantly below 40% at this stage of a Parliament; the Conservatives that their vote has slipped below thirty and seems to be stabilizing there. however, if this is 4 party politics for real either of the big parties will do well to struggle to get 35% of vote and the high thirties will give either a majority if the other is in the lower thirties.

    What this all may mean if the government is seen to drift as the coalition drifts apart than another coalition may not be viewed with equanimity by voters.

    I still think the economy will matter most & for the present the gravest danger to conservative prospects remains the fact the for those in lower paid work, wages are not keeping pace with inflation and they feel poorer and resentful. In the end that may scupper the government….

  41. OK. This is now getting interesting. The lost LDs that had gone predominantly over to Lab over the last 2.5 years are now splitting.

    According to my (imperfect but probably instructive) analysis of the Lost LDs, something like 22% of them are supporting UKIP in today’s poll. This time last year it was more like 8-9%.

    That difference equates to 2-3% of the entire poll. If those voters were previously calling for Lab, that in itemised would be enough to explain Lab’ drop from ~42% to ~ 39% over the last 3 months.

    Now, this really IS interesting. Because, if we discount the possibility that this 2-3% of the electorate has entirely changed its political opinions in 3 years (there being almost no points of commonality between LD 2010 policies and those of UKIP) then presumably this is the politically disillusioned group that would drop their electoral knickers for the first charming man who looms them in the eye and says “I’m different”. The ones who fell for Nick in 2010 and now are swooning over Nige.

    Which, if true, raises all sorts of issues for Labour. Of course, Labour could (have) played the game by electing a leader who would be equally dashing and seductive (although who thinks that DM would have been that man, and not been characterised as BananaMan or Mr Bean, once leader, is deluded). But the bigger question is, does Lab NEED to chase these votes?

  42. I think UKIP’s potential impact at the 2015 GE is being underestimated by many. Firstly even at a 16-17% VI level Nigel Farage must stand a decent chance of defeating John Bercow in Buckingham.

    Secondly many poll-crazy people, including me, are feeding current numbers into election predictors and coming to the conclusion that UKIP will score zero seats won. The fallacy there I believe is that the predictors can only assume a uniform spread of party votes along the lines of previous results. Of course local variations will occur, for example UKIP’s recent successes in Boston, Folkestone etc, which some pundits have drawn attention to. Once UKIP can reach a VI figure of 20%plus these Parliamentary constituencies will become seriously winnable targets for them.

  43. @LeftyLampton

    Unite are calling for a complete ban on Bangladeshi clothing imports. That’s much more UKIP territory than Labour.

  44. @Amber Star

    Puts him in the mainstream in the UK. Not nearly as astounding as Alex Salmond’s attack on Donald Trump.

  45. It think it’s pretty clear that UKIP will take more votes from the Conservatives than Labour. But even if they take the same percentage from both, Labour gains from it..

    Labour would be better off with a 35% to 25% lead than with a 40% to 30% lead, for instance.

    This is neglecting considerations about the effect the presence of UKIP is having on the internal politics of the conservative party, which will damage it even more as conflicts on Europe grow.

    I don’t think Milliband has to do much more than keep quiet and watch the fun in order to win the next general election.

  46. Portillo joins Lawson and Stuart in The Times this morning.

    Nearly as many 2010 LDs gone to UKIP as to Labour in this poll.

    Farage on a roll .

  47. @leftylampton:
    Labour probably doesn’t need to chase them. Labour just needs to hold onto enough of a split among them in the Midlands to get through the next election with a majority of at least 20-30 seats.

    I suspect that Labour gets a majority with about anything over 35% or so, assuming the Tories aren’t hot on their heels (i.e. 35-34 would get very interesting simply because the Tories are likely going to be shorted their usual vote piles in their safest seats). Below that you enter a danger zone of sorts, simply because a lower vote share with Labour still in the lead implies a certain amount of chaos with the smaller parties.

    To throw out a situation that would be a royal mess, consider LAB 33, CON 27, UKIP 16, LIB 13, OTH 11. I don’t consider this sort of a result likely in the least at the moment, but it’s not horridly implausible if things go on as they have been. On the one hand, I agree that a result like this likely to generate some sort of Labour majority…but I don’t think the 354-225-42-28 result that a UNS shows on this sort of result is likely in reality since, well, the result won’t be uniform and it’s really hard to call that majority certain.

  48. The biggest change I believe is that it no longer seems at all likely that UKIP can fall back to 5% or so at the election in 2015 in the absence of major ‘events’ (Europe is the most likely source here).

    It follows therefore that the Tories will likely have to write off that part of their potential support .They’re going to have to draw more from elsewhere – with Labour the largest source available.

    I agree with Robin that a Con-UKIP pact is a non-starter:Farage wouldn’t be able (or,I think,willing) to control newly ambitious local groups amongst other things.

    I agree with Amber that the new UKIP councillors will be largely irrelevant, next noticed when they have to stand for re-election 2 years into what’s near-certain to be a Labour-dominated government.Hope I’m still around in May 2019 to enjoy that showdown!

  49. Retained 2010ers in this Poll

    Con 57%
    Lab 81%
    LD 33%

  50. @ Wolf

    Unite are calling for a complete ban on Bangladeshi clothing imports. That’s much more UKIP territory than Labour.
    ————–
    Not really because it’s about elfin safety which is anathema to UKIP.

    There have been horrendous incidents in Bangladesh this year; most notably the building collapse which cost the lives of almost 900 garment workers. There are still dead workers being found & the toll could exceed 1,000 people.

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