The figures for the YouGov poll at the weekend are now up on the website , as is Peter Kellner’s commentary.

Interestingly, the full figures are broken down into “One Nation” and “Clear Blue Water” Tories – i.e. the 43% of members who told YouGov they thought the party should move closer to the centre, and the 50% who thought the party should stay firmly to the right to differentiate itself from Labour.

The most important finding looking at the figures this way is, as Peter Kellner says in his article, that David Cameron is ahead in both groups. Aside from that though there are some interesting differences. Amongst “one nation” Tories Cameron has huge support – he is the first choice of almost half of respondents, with Ken Clarke second on 32%. There is very little support for David Davis (7%) or Liam Fox (4%) on the left of the party.

On the right of the party Cameron’s support is lower – only 32% – but support for the other candidates is pretty evenly split – Davis and Fox are neck and neck on 20%, with Clarke on 18%. Cameron’s support, while drawn slightly more from the left, comes from both wings of the party. Clarke’s is mainly on the left, but he retains a rump of support on the right. Davis and Fox both draw the bulk of their support from the right.

Looking at who members don’t want as leader, predictably enough there is a large body of members on the right of the party steadfastly opposed to Ken Clarke – 54% of “Blue water” Tories say Ken should definitely not be leader. Equally there are large sections of “One Nation” Tories who would staunchly oppose Liam Fox (43%) or David Davis (49%). While there are more members who would object to Cameron on the right (17%) than the left (7%), there doesn’t seem to be any large body of ideological opposition to him (indeed, amongst “clear blue” Tories there are more opponents of Fox (20%) and Davis (20%)than Cameron).

The most obvious explanation for this is that Cameron isn’t seen as a candidate from the left or right of the party by most party members – he isn’t alienating any support for ideological reasons. Whether he can continue in the same vein under the spotlight of the leadership campaign is a different question.

Finally we come to the run offs between the various pairs of candidates. Obviously there are some differences, but in the Davis/Cameron, Clarke/Cameron and Fox/Davis run-offs the winners are the same amongst both wings of the party. The only run-off out of the four that YouGov tested that would be a true ideological face-off was Clarke/Davis – 68% of “one nation” Tories would back Clarke, 60% of “blue water” Tories would back Davis.


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