The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov/Sun voting intention figures, the first with fieldwork conducted wholly after the local election results. Topline figures are CON 29%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%. The 16% is the highest that YouGov have shown for UKIP (their previous high was 14%, and that was only achieved in the last week or so.)

It’s not a surprise to see UKIP increasing their support on the back of their local election performance – parties that do well at elections and are seen to be doing well and making progress often see a boost in the polls, success breeds success. That probably goes double for a smaller party, since the extra publicity and being seen as a serious contender makes so much difference.


194 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 16”

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  1. Sure, portfolio etc.

    You can generally get bigger (and safer) returns investing in more tangible assets, if you pick the right things…

    Meanwhile, on the Historian thing. It’s not historians per se, it’s when they do economics that one starts to worry a bit…

  2. GRAY
    Agreed. I was just being cheeky, phrasing it as though UKIP were the dominant party.

    In response to Paul Croft’s call for UKIP crystal ball gazing, my guess is that they will slide down to 11-12, popping back up to 14 or 15 at the odd byelection, with diminishing returns as people get more used to them. This pattern will probably hold whether or not UKIP actually win one of said byelections, although a win would prolong their momentum.

    Then they will spike again in the Euro elections, but that is now so widely expected it will not have the same positive media profile or feeling of insurgency, and will be portrayed as a disappointing performance. By the general election they will have subsided, perhaps to the “sweet spot” for Labour of 8% or so where they do maximum damage to the Conservatives without actually winning anything or much disrupting Labour.

    I don’t mean to be quite so dismissive of UKIP as I sound, though. Farage has played his hand very shrewdly so far – some of the few cards FPTP allows minor parties are opportunism and headline-catching until they get a chance to make a breakthrough and put down roots (mixed metaphor monitor, anyone?). Farage will have a pretty narrow window in which to cash in UKIP’s novelty value for something substantial, but I’m not sure how, since their only permanent home looks to be on the far right, which will be limiting.

  3. @Ken

    That joke about strawberries should have been modded, to be fair…

  4. Turk,

    As I posted before the evidence seems to suggest a realignment within the right more than a drift. If at least a segment of UKIP’s vote is just general protest it doesn’t have an ideological component. The same can be said for mid term blues ( or ex-blues in this case). If most of the rest is from the Tories to UKIP then it is realignment.

    Gray,

    Not so sure you have got Scotland quite right.

    Although it is only one poll UKIP are clearly up, all be it a below half UK. Levels. There was an interesting take on them here on BBCScotland;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22420512

    At 14% the Tories look low, but it could just be sample variance. More significantly immigration at number two on over 40% is high for Scotland, if well below the UK figure ex Scotland of close to 60%.

    A combination of the two might suggest that the high UKIP profile after the English locals and the focus on immigration has had some resonance. However if it has hurt anyone it is the Tories with UKIP appealing to the retired middle class Scots who are the stalwarts sticking up until now with the Scottish Tories.

    My other difference is with how good you think things will be for the SNP. Much as I would like to agree. I think on 40%+ for Labour and under 30% for us, it will be Labour on these figures who would be happiest.

    If it stood like this in 2015′( barring Independence of course) I’d expect Labour to pick off Mundell the only Scottish Tory with the help of UKIP and LibDem switchers and the SNP and Labour to share about half of the LibDems seats.

    That would make the SNP the second largest party but still on no more than 10
    With Labour closer to fifty.

    Peter.

  5. I see I have just claimed a “sweet spot” for Labour of 8% UKIP based on no psephological evidence whatsoever. Apologies, polling aficionados.

  6. CARFREW……….Planted a strawberry, attracted a raspberry…! I’ll know better in future, it’s Gordon Broon’s fault.

  7. Corporations (not so much SMEs) are also in a liquidity trap. They have piles of cash but they do not make investment decisions based on achieving a return which exceeds the interest from having the money on deposit. Their internal rate of return is influenced greatly by their desire to maintain the historical dividend level which they established in the boom years.

    They are using cash to buy their own shares not to invest. This reduces the volume dividend requirement so the value can be maintained & it protects the current board from any hostile take-over financed temporarily by ‘the banks’ but ultimately by the cash in the coffers of the corporation which has been absorbed. (As an aside, the only good thing to come from ManU being taken over is that people on the street now ‘get’ that this, seemingly crazy thing, can be done).

    For SMEs, as Laszlo says, they cannot secure funding to buy equipment. This has been evident in the UK for many years (Lefty Lampton can probably confirm). The lending companies assume that either 1. the equipment will be technically obsolete before it’s paid for; &/or 2. there will be no buyer for it, if the firm goes bankrupt; &/or 3. that the value of automation (historically) was predicated on high wages, now wages are low, the process should be done manually, if it is at all possible.

    ‘The banks’ have become entirely disengaged from ‘real’ business (which they perceive as too risky!). They are completely absorbed in financial instruments, speculation & up-front fee taking from any (usually short-term) business deals that they do support.

    Therefore, IMO neither business nor banking behaviour now fits the historical Keynesian model. You need to look to the updated Keynesian models for more relevant answers to the economic questions being posed.

    So, also just IMO, a debate between Lazlo (intellectual rigour from an understanding of Keynes’s actual model) & Carfrew (broad approach based on general, updated Keynsian models & surrounding discussions thereof) would be fascinating but perhaps a tad difficult to accommodate here. I wish I were having dinner with you both this evening! :-)

  8. @KEN
    “CARFREW……….Planted a strawberry, attracted a raspberry…! I’ll know better in future, it’s Gordon Broon’s fault.”

    ———-

    Aw Ken, I only said it ‘cos your other comment got modded. And anyway you said Lefty was a dinosaur…

  9. @Amber

    Yes, and banks are also preferring assets to investing in business. Safer, again. Some of this is a natural consequence of the Big Bang and ending the split between retail and investment banking. When a bank could only do retail they had less choice about investing in business.

    I should add I’m not a “Keynesian” per se, but you can’t ignore his point about demand.

  10. @ Billy Bob

    Thanks for that analysis, which I agree with.

    LD support has been a mixture of Liberal / Social Democrat idealists (core voters), tactical voters more focused on keeping out Tory or Labour (mostly anti-Tory), and ‘none-of-the above’ floating voters.
    I can sensibly see the floaters and anti-Labour voters moving to Tory and especially UKIP. I guess the true ‘none-of the above’ are unlikely to return now LDs are ‘one of the above’, but some of the anti-Labour may well do so if LDs are still seen as the best chance of stopping Labour.

    There were a lot of LDs who were conceptually in favour of coalition government, but in practice only really thought that would mean working with Labour, and felt betrayed when Clegg went in with Cameron. I can definitely see most of the anti-Tories and some of the LD believers have moved Labour, although some may revert when the reality of their constituency choice or fundamental beliefs reasserts itself as the election nears.

    I guess I mentally (and incorrectly) defined the ‘lost LDs’ as excluding the truly ‘none-of-the-above’ voters, as they never had any commitment to or belief in LDs in the first place!

    I suspect LDs will end up in 2015 with votes from most of (80-90%) their core, a proportion of tactical voters (as the logic for tactical voting still applies in some cases, very few converts, and very few ‘none-of-the-above’ voters – I anticipate an outcome in the 10-12% range, fourth behind UKIP but holding 30-35 seats?

    Just a guess though…
    BFR

  11. For dinner, can we invite Lefty too? And RiN for the MMT stuff? Don’t wanna leave anyone out… we could do a round of golf in the Algarve first and Ken could carry the clubs. He charges £90 I think…

  12. AMBER STAR…..Are you by any chance in the business of sweeping generalisations, is there money in it ? Your post shows a complete disregard for the actualité. Billions are being lent, in all manner of ways, to all manner of businesses, turn up with a viable case, and, chances are, you’ll get your money. Banking isn’t meant to be risky, we’ve done the irresponsible stuff, now we’re back to proper, considered, financing. Jeez.!

  13. TOH

    “@Ken

    Your wasting your time, they won’t listen. Your right of course”

    Howard: when you are n an objectve/dispassonate frame of mind you should read through some of your posts. The above for example translates as…

    Ken is right so he doesn’t need to listen
    “They” are wrong because they won’t listen.
    You are able to judge the “verdict” objectively.

    You can’t [well, you shouldn’t] have it both ways – especially about somethng that divides opinion at an even more rarified level than UKPR.

  14. Amber

    Anecdotal evidence from my own experience. Our micro-SME with a ten-year record of year-on-year growth, never having made a loss and never having called on our £20k overdraft facility found itself 2 years ago with a delay in the placement of a (to us) major contract from a blue chip multinational firm who had a steady track record of placing and honouring contracts with us. We have a turn-over of ~£1million. We needed £50k to keep paying wages until the contract came in, rather than lose key staff, then to run the contract until the first staged payments were made. The high street bank that we were with refused to extend our overdraft facility and my business partner and I ended up personally funding the temporary cashflow shortfall.

    That, to me, sounds like a dysfunctional approach to risk management by banks.

  15. Dunno about blue and red but there is so much argument here about stuff that is neither black nor white that we might just as well decide the election on the basis of Ed’s nose.

  16. @ Carfrew

    Maybe Ken will pay for dinner.

    I had to say that or he’d have to stop saying that lefties only spend other people’s money! ;-)

  17. @ Ken

    Banking isn’t meant to be risky, we’ve done the irresponsible stuff, now we’re back to proper, considered, financing.
    ————–
    Jolly good.

  18. @Paul Croft

    “Howard: when you are n an objectve/dispassonate frame of mind you should read through some of your posts. The above for example translates as…

    Ken is right so he doesn’t need to listen
    “They” are wrong because they won’t listen.
    You are able to judge the “verdict” objectively.

    You can’t [well, you shouldn’t] have it both ways – especially about somethng that divides opinion at an even more rarified level than UKPR.”

    Just reading your comments, you seem to just want to argue with everybody< Cant we keep the discussions to the poll and stop fighting.

  19. From the Graun…

    Tuesday 5 March 2013 08.13 GMT

    “Bank lending falls by £2.7bn in final quarter of 2012, says Bank of England

    Three major banks cut back on loans as building societies use cash from government’s funding for lending scheme

    Bank lending dropped by £2.7bn in the last quarter of 2012 after three major banks cut back on business and mortgage loans. Photograph: James Boardman/Alamy
    Phillip Inman, economics correspondent

    The flagship funding for lending scheme (FLS), intended to throw a lifeline to credit-starved businesses and households, faced fresh criticism yesterday after the Bank of England revealed that billions of pounds of lending was sucked out of the economy in the last three months of 2012.

    Lending fell by £2.7bn in the final three months of last year after bailed-out Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland – accused of “stabbing business in the back” – retreated from offering mortgages and loans. Spanish-owned Santander also cut back lending.

    The three big banks offset efforts by scores of building societies and smaller banks to expand lending, undermining the government’s plans to increase the availability of credit under the £80bn lending scheme, whose 39 members accounted for £2.4bn of the total contraction in lending.

    The two state-owned banks, Lloyds and RBS, cut the number of loans they made last year despite tapping the FLS for billions of pounds of cheap funds.”

  20. @ Ken

    Billions are being lent, in all manner of ways, to all manner of businesses, turn up with a viable case, and, chances are, you’ll get your money.
    ————-
    This is not the situation at all, Ken. Funding is provided for short-term deals or middle-men arrangement type deals; mid-term lending rarely happens unless there is collateral.

  21. Heartbreak in the Mark Hughes household as he leaps up to answer his mobile phone only to be asked if he’s ever been mis-sold PPI”

  22. As your prime minister I would legislate IMMEDIATELY for words that begin with an “ESS” sound but start with the letter P to be the first in line for alteration by the relevant department.

    My government [viz – me] would also consider other anomalies such as “bow” meaning two different things and ruff and rough sounding the same.

    I woud run the economy by getting lots of people to shout at each other and then toss a coin.

  23. steve

    I hope he has and its too late for him to do anythng about it.

  24. LEFTYLAMPTON……….IMO, your bank acted responsibly, and the outcome was positive, why should you be encouraged to borrow when you can provide capital yourself, your bank manager is shrewder than you imagine.

  25. Even better if it WAS Sir Alex and he just wanted advice on what to do now he’s retired.

  26. Ken

    I’m sure you are right.

    Of course, our bank manager didn’t know that we could provide capital ourselves. The way I see it was that he was making a call on a £50k bet at extremely short odds. Clearly his take was that the return (payment for the overdraft facility plus interest) didn’t make the bet worthwhile.

    His call. Taking everything into account (including the source of funding for the contract that we had lined up and our track record) I think he made an incorrect call. I would say that wouldn’t I?

    By the way, in making that call, he has also lost subsequent business with us because we changed bank immediately.

  27. Meant to add. We were lucky in that both my partner and I had collateral in our houses that we could call on. Other micro-businesses in similar circumstances might not have been so lucky. Had we not been in that situation, there would now be another company gone bust with highly qualified technical staff out of work and a small export area lost to the country.

    A tiny anecdote, but one that I suspect has been repeated time and again over the last 3-5 years.

  28. @AMBER STAR

    “I had to say that or he’d have to stop saying that lefties only spend other people’s money!”

    ————–

    Well the current government have gotten quite good at that. And the banks too, to be fair…

  29. First Thatcher dies, then Ferguson retires.

    Somewhere there is a Scouser with a lamp and one wish left!

  30. 70years old + minutes injury time.

    One of the greats!

  31. @Steve1

    I’m stealing that and I don’t care that you know.

  32. “Just reading your comments, you seem to just want to argue with everybody< Cant we keep the discussions to the poll and stop fighting."

    Jolly good idea – ta for reading and, if you read my comments again, you'l see that is what I have suggested a number of times. Not that I regard anything I have written as "fighting".

  33. Dan the Man

    Have aso written specifically on the polls so you could have joined in with that debate easily enough.

    Re TO Howard – who I have a lot of time for – I simply found it disingenuous, even a bit rude, to accuse people here of “not listening” simply because they don’t agree with the rascally Ken – who I aso have a lot of time for – as though that must be the only possible reason for disagreement.

    Do you not see that point?

    You could also have joined in my campaign for sensible spelling by the way: my next act would be to return all French words to France and re-patriate words WE made up like “le internet” and “le weekend”.

    Our message: make up yer own sodding words monsieur.

    That’ll show them.

  34. Just to bring things back into line – my prediction for tonights/Tomorrows Sun Yougov Poll.

    Con 30/31
    Lab 39/40
    Ukip 15/16
    LDs 10/11

    Now thats a fair post from a level headed Tory – lol

  35. Mark

    That’s very disappointing; please try harder.

    Wot’s yer Missis think?

    I shall go for 40/30/10 and 13 for UKIP is you want to etc

  36. carfrew

    AMERICANISM ALERT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    “Well the current government have gotten quite good ”

    carfrew, if you are NOT an American citizen please report to our Americanisms Monitor immediately, toot sweet etc.

  37. LOL @ Paul Croft

    Sorry I will have another go then.

    Con 32
    Lab 38
    LDs 11
    Ukip 14

    There hows that Paul ?

  38. That’s a bit less like it Marcus – well done!

    Actually tomorrow is very hard to call as its all about the Fergster retiring today.

  39. Colin

    If Labour are unable to cut through the fog of economic debate on growth, with graphs like this one available for them to use, they really don’t deserve to be elected.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-orlyEmIHq6o/UWQdk1bw3WI/AAAAAAAAASs/tJFd-mRBtPA/s1600/GDP+to+March+2013.jpg

    By the way, we HAD the double-dip. The issue was whether we would have a triple one. And when you look at that graph, the trie dip question was irrelevant. We never had a recovery out of the second dip.

    I have to say that I am in awe of anyone who can look at that graph, alongside the figures showing that borrowing has not come down anywhere near as quickly as planned, and STILL argue that the last three years’ economic policy has been a success.

  40. carfrew

    “Lending fell by £2.7bn in the final three months of last year”

    Funnily enough that was exactly the amount that I had requested for the new conservatory we wanted – and that loan was rejected.

  41. May a newbie comment on Anglesey? Welshguy has it spot on and the response from Kevin is well wide of the mark.

    First, yes there were 2 or 3 winners in each division BUT every elector had 2 or 3 votes so the effect is just the same as in a one for one election.

    Second, yes the lowest vote cast for a winner was 11% BUT that is the proportion of the total votes cast in the division so is roughly comparable to 33% in reality (a quite normal figure).

    Third, there are 57.2% Welsh speakers on Anglesey not the 82% stated by Kevin (https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/Catalogue/Welsh-Language/WelshSpeakers-by-LocalAuthority-Gender-DetailedAgeGroups-2011Census).

    So the under 7% aggregate vote for UKIP may indeed be compared to the press claims of 25% everywhere. My only disagreement with Welshguy is his reference to the UK press’ -m there is no such thing. There is a London press which sometimes condescends to report on wider English news. But which almost never covers the rest of the UK.

    Oh, and Welshguy’s reference to (mostly English) retirees is entirely apposite as shown in the later news on age splits.

  42. “if you are NOT an American citizen please report to our Americanisms Monitor immediately, toot sweet etc.”

    ————–

    Awesome. Altogether now…

    “O say, can you see
    By the dawn’s early light…”

  43. @Eddie

    I can understand your analysis quite well, actually; I suspect what ultimately happens depends a lot more on DC than UKIP. If Cameron manages to show those voters that he “gets it” and enough of them come back home, then I tend to agree that you’ll see a fade-off (like you saw with the Pirate Party in Germany). If the Tories still seem to have a tin ear, then I think we get a bit more damage sticking around.

    I mulled this over (and have probably said it in so many words before), and the UKIP folks seem to be the British equivalent of Reagan Democrats in the US: Lower-income voters who would traditionally vote Labour, but who tend to be socially conservative and who are also aspirational. Thatcher won them from Labour in the late 70s/early 80s. I suspect they may have swung back in the late 90s, after Black Wednesday humiliated the Tories, but they’re a key constituency for them.

    Unfortunately for the Tories, they’re also not on with a lot of the more “progressive” social agendas (comparatively speaking), whether it’s gay marriage or immigration policy. They tend to be a hair nationalistic (although I’m going to submit that in a lot of cases, it’s more uncertainty about their future/position in life and/or a sense of tradition driving this than the outright malice you tend to get among a lot of BNP types). That puts the Tories in a bind because of a lot of what has been mentioned.

  44. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: another record UKIP high, and Tories’ on lowest since 2001. CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%.

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