The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov/Sun voting intention figures, the first with fieldwork conducted wholly after the local election results. Topline figures are CON 29%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%. The 16% is the highest that YouGov have shown for UKIP (their previous high was 14%, and that was only achieved in the last week or so.)

It’s not a surprise to see UKIP increasing their support on the back of their local election performance – parties that do well at elections and are seen to be doing well and making progress often see a boost in the polls, success breeds success. That probably goes double for a smaller party, since the extra publicity and being seen as a serious contender makes so much difference.


194 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 29, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 16”

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  1. I’d like to see Lab over 40%, but their vote seems to be holding up.

  2. I wonder what percentage UKIP would need to be hitting in polls for them to be winning seats in various calculators and prediction models. Any ideas?

  3. I know all the caveats about sub samples but it will still be interesting to see UKIP’s numbers in Scotland.

    I’ll have to go back and see how there vote share in Scotland has moved over the last year or so.

    Where’s Statgeek when you need him.

    Peter.

  4. I see the UKIP vote as a friendly pre-election warning to the mother-ship to nudge slightly right, soft Labour will certainly move over when Ed announces his plans, expect more risky strategy based on unproven economic mumbo jumbo.
    Good economic news will soften the waverers even more, and with this quarters growth predicted at 0.6%, we’ll have a steady ship and a following wind. Better polling for the Blues on the way, IMO.

  5. @ Ken

    I see you still live in eternal hope. ;-)

  6. PAUL BRISTOL………Nah, it’s called pragmatism.

  7. So the question is… Is this UKip rise temporary due to increased exposure etc., or here to stay…

  8. @Lefty (FPT)

    Yes, ferguson’s had to backtrack rather. That’s the trouble with ad ho
    hominems. They may offend others besides the target. Especially rubbish ad hominems with little merit like the attack on Keynes…

  9. @Carfrew:
    It’s always a mix. My best guess is that absent a reaction of some kind from DC, UKIP’s average slides up by a point or two (rather than the +3-6 we’re likely to see in the short term if this poll is indicative). One thing to consider is that the increased exposure is rather likely to stay for a little while…success breeding success and all (since if UKIP is bouncing around in the mid-to-high teens without a European election, it’s kind of hard /not/ to cover them).

    The other thing is that we’ve got at least one by-election apparently in the offing, and statistically probably have at least 2-4 total coming before the end of the year and another few next year (you seem to get about 2-5 most years, from what I can tell), so it’ll be harder and harder not to at least put their coverage on par with the LibDems.

  10. @ Ken,

    “I see the UKIP vote as a friendly pre-election warning to the mother-ship to nudge slightly right”

    I see it more as a unfriendly pre-election warning to the mother-ship to stop sending out aliens: Etonians and people who can utter phrases like “direction of travel” and “expansionary fiscal contraction” with a straight face. Unfortunately the Tories are stuck with their class problem and neither major party seems to have a media operation capable of writing them a better phrasebook, so the warning is unlikely to be heeded.

  11. The economy is still voters #1 concern. I don’t see any party having any sort of credible plan to sort out the economy yet, in fact the opposite.

    Incredibly the narrative now seems to have moved to Europe. But poll after poll shows new UKIP supporters are not that worried about Europe.

    So barring an economic miracle I don’t see the Tories recovering by the next election. They are off fighting a side battle.

    For a sobering assessment of where we are this release is very instructive:

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_308566.pdf

    In particular the graph:
    Figure 6: Real GDP per capita in previous UK recessions

    This one was also a surprise (to me anyway)
    Figure 7: UK population estimates (millions)

    So perhaps immigration IS something that needs to be looked at, but it looks like the only GDP growth we are getting is due to increased immigration, so dealing with that may be counter productive.

    We really need something like the Chinese 5 year plans to transform our economy otherwise we are headed for continual decline and eventual bankruptcy. Instead we are focused on Europe and short term fixes like re-inflating the house price bubble.

    The party that comes up with a credible economic plan will win the next election. As a voter, I am still waiting for someone to claim that prize….

  12. @PeterCairns

    I’ve been very, very busy, but lurking as usual. Not updated the site for a bit, as it’s just a bit of fun, and have other things to do. I linked to UKIP in Scotland recently with a very basic graph of the average VI since 1st Nov 2011 (split into 30s, with the last value being a dozen I think). Can’t remember the most recent date, but at least mid-April.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/ukip_scot.png

  13. Most recent 30 polls in Scotland for UKIP average at about 4.5%

  14. Politicians in all major parties (and that would now include UKIP) do not seem to be aware that most people aren’t really politically-inclined. The EU is an issue that (rightly or wrongly) only really interests the politically-inclined. In fact, the many and various Tory rifts on the issue over the past 25 years remind me of the divisions that the Labour Party had over the issue of nuclear weapons during Hugh Gaitskell’s leadership. The public don’t like divided parties, but they especially don’t like parties that are divided over an issue that most of them don’t particularly care about.

  15. I think Labour will be fairly relieved at this poll – the narrative in the media has been UKIP, UKIP, UKIP, but most voters don’t see them as an alternative government, and their support last week looks like midterm protest. The Tories have looked the more panicky of the 2 major parties since then & if Labour can score a couple of direct hits in the near future the lead has the ability to grow a little more.

  16. I’m wondering where the UKIP support comes from. When the Conservatives made their pledge for an EU-referendum, it did not seem to affect the Conservative figures one way or the other. Yet UKIP appear to be rising steadily.

    I wonder if there is a correlation between UKIP support and gay marriage legislation. Is there any statistical evidence that the UKIP trend started, or at least increased, following the government’s announcement on gay marriage?

  17. People don’t care about the EU as such, but the issue is open to a lot of relevant framing…especially with the Euro not having an easy time of it, and especially with that mess down in Cyprus. So it’s open to sour framing.

    The trick for Labour is going to be finding a hit that resonates. The ball is in their court at the moment, but as noted UKIP support seems to be coming at least modestly from the right…in other words, folks not exactly inclined to “return” to the Tories.

    Also, UKIP polling weakly in Scotland is interesting. Any word on their performance in Wales while we’re at it? 15% concentrated in England is a hair more potent than 15% uniformly spread. I’ll also be interested to see the regional crosstabs, too.

  18. SAF going. Maybe as a Labour candidate in 2015.
    JOSE to come to OT?

  19. Peter Hain gives a pessimistic verdict, on Labour’s prospects, seen on today’s BBC web site.

  20. I would expect UKIP do do noticably worse in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and to a lesser extent Wales, as evinced by the Anglesey election (which almost NOBODY in the UK media has paid any attention to, despite its having a rather interesting result quite different to the national polls – with Plaid Cymru more than doubling their representation, Labour and the Tories losing seats (!) and UKIP gainign only about 7%, despite standing in every ward (so much for that 25% they were supposed to be averaging anywhere they stood). Anglesey is actually, in some ways at least, just the kind of place I’d expect UKIP to do well in in Wales – rural, lots of retired (English) people, far from the Westminster and Cardiff bubbles. The reasons they might not do as well in Wales/Scotland/NI are complicated and varied, but I’d hazard that despite the “UK” in their title theirs is a brand of nationalism that has appeal only in England. Still, 7-8% will be enough to get regional seats in the Welsh Assembly in 2016, and even less will be enough in Scotland, that is assuming Scotland votes “no” in 2014.

  21. Carfrew

    The issue with Ferguson’s attack on Keynes is that it was factually incorrect and also betrayed a total lack of understanding of what Keynes said and believed. That might be acceptable for an Internet warrior like some on here, but for someone who claims to be a leading economic historian, it could be fatal to his professional credibility.

    And that’s before you get onto the issue of what the quip reveals of Ferguson the man.

  22. Ed announces his plans, expect more risky strategy based on unproven economic mumbo jumbo.

    Economic Mumbo Jumbo sorry Ken were you referring to Labour or the Coalition.Because the concept that you can cut your way out of a recession has now been widely discredited.

    I would like to see a bold move from Labour endorsing a massive social housing building programme ,which has the added advantage, apart from providing hundreds of thousands of much needed homes, the distinct possibility of stimulating a sustained recovery.

  23. I’m wondering where the UKIP support comes from.

    About a Third of it comes from those who used to consider voting BNP or EDL .

    Much of the additional growth comes from the elderly and potentially mentally frail.

    The Majority IMO comes from those who aren’t interested in policies but perceptions.

  24. UKIP support has been spreading from South to North gradually over the last few months. I think this is because it is a social phenomenon and not just individuals reacting to the media.

    So the Scotland graph is no surprise, it is just happening later there. The London figure has also been low but I see that edging up too: Statgeek – any chance of a graph for London?

  25. I would like to see a bold move from Labour endorsing a massive social housing building programme ,which has the added advantage, apart from providing hundreds of thousands of much needed homes, the distinct possibility of stimulating a sustained recovery.

    It also has the handy effect of defusing the anger over ‘immigrants taking our houses’.

    Still, interesting result. Expect this kind of result to hold. There might be a slight creep back towards the Tories as local election memories fade, but UKIP will come roaring back at the EU elections next year and I can see them pushing 20% by early 2015 if they’re lucky.

  26. Will be interesting to see where UKIP are this time next year just before the European elections. Most of their vote then I would expect to come from the Tories. A big boost then for UKIP might damage the Tories very badly for the GE in 2015. Camerons attempt to kick Europe into the long grass by promising a referendum in 2017 seems to have given his parties Eurosceptics extra vigour rather than cooling them down.

    It does seem that we are in a 4 horse rast, at least for now. Given that, it would be interesting to see if there will be any polling to see where UKIP voters are coming from.

    Labour seem to have held up well and have gone back to a 10% lead, this seems to be the default lead and has been so for a very long time now. Given the UKIP earthquake that seems to suggest that the 10% lead is quite solid and may not be eaten away as the GE approaches.

  27. ken

    “expect more risky strategy based on unproven economic mumbo jumbo”

    boohoohooooooooooooooo Those righties are posting things I don’t like and spoiling the site for me.

    .

  28. Good Evening All.
    Prediction from the beach.
    Cons 34
    Lab 37

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Oh dear… so close ! Do you make money at this Chris?

    My own 8/18/28/38 was pretty good too. Especially as I also predicted UKIP-if-you-want-to-the-lady’s-not-for-kipping to be over 15 and the LDs under 10.

    Clever me is what I say.

  29. CL1945


    Peter Hain gives a pessimistic verdict, on Labour’s prospects, seen on today’s BBC web site”

    Oh NO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

  30. No Ken, it’s not that “righties are posting things I don’t like” which is spoiling the site, it’s pointless partisanship. Both right and left are guilty of it sometimes but you seem not to bother with analysing the country or constituencies, preferring to bait left-wingers. I would urge you, and others, to use this site for what it’s for. If you want to attack the Left, there are plenty of other forums to do it on.

  31. Welshguy

    That Anglesey view is probably the poorest analysis of an election area that I’ve ever read.

    There were 3 candidates elected in Almost all Anglesey wards thus meaning % for each candidate were greatly reduced compared to single member English wards.

    Some of the successful candidates in Anglesey were elected with as little as 13% of the vote.

    And as for the hordes of retired English people residing on Anglesy the Island is 82% Welsh speaking and probably represents UKIPs most challenging area.

    Totally out of kilter with much of the rest of Wales.

  32. Labour must be relieved that there hasn’t been a noticeable decline in their percentage following the bad press that they’ve been getting over the last week. Maybe this just shows that very few people take notice of what the press is saying.
    I still think that EM needs to ‘firm up’ some of his policies to counter any drift to UKIP or back to the LDs. On the other hand the tories must be relieved that their vote hasn’t dropped even further following their worst ever local elections result. I suspect that Cameron will try and appease his right wing with some anti-immigrant, EU, benefit cheats rhetoric. The only problem for him is that when he does try and appear more right wing he risks alienating the left wing of his party. For that reason I can’t see any real increase in the tories share of the vote for some time.
    IMO UKIP will continue to get all the headlines but their policies will now come under greater scrutiny which will show us how solid their support is. I personally think it is quite soft and will slowly drift back to around 10/11% until next years EU elections when they will get a boost again.

  33. Having said I thought UKIP would be over 15% wonder if that represents, at least temporarily, a high point for them. There seems more likelihood at the moment that they will slip back rather than push on.

    My guess would be a drop back tp 13/14 with the other three parties gaining equally.

    Any thoughts from others? Any forthcoming news that may affect this?

  34. Will be interesting to see where UKIP are this time next year just before the European elections.

    -IMHO they will probably come First or a Close Second to Labour in the EURO’s.

    However, it is possible, that rather than the media giving UKIP such a friendly ride on non migrant bashing Policy (or the complete lack thereof) a bit of forensic demolition of how you make £120 Billion in Tax give-away’s (primarily to the wealthiest) while doubling the defence budget and doubling the number of prisons. Or indeed what is the logic about removing the smoking ban other than Nigel would like a Fag with His Pint or an opting out system from the NHS.

    I would look at UKIP’s own site for some guidance to if these policies have changed but they appear to have removed all their policies from the public domain!

    I suspect if the public can be encouraged to look at the reality of what a UKIP involving administration might mean their VI figures might not appear so rosy.

  35. Well the FT continuing to hint at news that this could be a good quarter for GDP. If this does look good, then it’s going to be more difficult for Labour. So I think Ken has a fair point.

    The current line from Labour that cutting out of recession doesn’t work might have to be revised, and lets remember, there is a slight myth about the level of ‘austerity’ underway. In reality spending on many areas is going up. We also need to remember that the EU has completely dispelled the myth that you can spend your way out of recession, as has Japan to a lesser extent. So there are arguments on both side of the fence so to speak.

  36. Reading his posts above and on the previous thread,I get the feeling the rise in UKiP’s popularity has spooked @Ken. He has lost his happy go lucky demeanour.

  37. Apart from stealing Tory votes, UKIP will be the dog that never barked.

    They will not win a single seat at the General Election.

    And in that (rather important) respect, they are not and never will be a “major party”.

  38. My predictifications were for tomorrow by the way; longer term I agree with rojo that they will head back to 10%

    Longer than that the LD vote is highly signifcant and I am not sure that it will recover hugely by 2015, unfair as some may feel that is. I find it quirky that the cons are holding up reasonably well and yet the party that allowed them to govern has been hit to a far greater extent.

    As always the conclusion is that most voters saw them as left of centre and don’t agree with Clegg that they are duty bound to support the largest party. Although that does have some intellectual appeal I think it is at least equally important to stand for a range of measures and be clear which other party/parties you feel are closer to your own views.

    As I have said before, the lack of willingness/ability to do that in 2015 will probably harm them greatly.

  39. So…. The Queen’s speech. It’s being described as the XTC, “Making Plans for Nigel” speech. Lots on immigration, not so much on the economy. Impact on VI?…

    (Someone said on the radio that if they were really that fussed about immigration they’d enforce the minimum wage properly)…

  40. Statgeek,

    Your a star!

    Certainly 5% is a rise but a third of what we are seeing South of the border (down Mexico way……..)

    Interestingly there is a bit of a Twitter storm up here at the moment covered in the Scotsman;

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/independence-top-lawyer-s-tweets-spark-race-row-1-2921925

    Unfortunately the slanging match has got caught up on his use of words rather than what evidence he has to suggest that a post “Yes” Scotland would have a different and tougher line on immigration than the UK in general or under a Tory government in particular.

    All the polls show that immigration is less of an issue in Scotland and as concerns over immigration are seen as a key driver of UKIP’s rise, their more modest rise in Scotland would seem to suggest that a tougher time for New Scots isn’t that likely.

    Peter.

  41. @LIZH
    “Reading his posts above and on the previous thread,I get the feeling the rise in UKiP’s popularity has spooked @Ken. He has lost his happy go lucky demeanour.”

    —————

    I thought that maybe it’d been the golf…

  42. rich

    “We also need to remember that the EU has completely dispelled the myth…….”

    “…… So there are arguments on both side of the fence so to speak.”

    If the EU have “completely dispelled” somethng that, in any event you claim is “a myth” I am not clear how there can be any other arguments at all. Surely it just means you are dead right?

  43. BARNABY MARDER……I think your post should have been addressed to PAULCROFT, t’was he who mooted right-wing posts ruining the site, of course, Paul is a man of some style and posts accordingly. As for my contribution on here, well, I just rely on AW to determine whether content is appropriate, I would, therefore, respectfully suggest you address your complaints to him.
    LIZH…………I’m not easily spooked, and certainly not by UKIP, Dave Mili might make me jump a little, but at the moment, I am, muy contento. ;-)

  44. Oh dear.

    Peter Hain: “If a general election was held tomorrow, Labour wouldn’t win a majority.”

    One thing (almost) everyone on this site agrees on is that if the election were tomorrow, Labour would get a large majority.

    What we don’t agree on is what might happen in 2015.

  45. @Rich

    No one said – well no one with a brain anyway – that spending automatically leads you out of recession. How you spend the money matters. For example, if it all goes on interest payments sans investment, that isn’t going to help much.

    And sure, you can still at times pull out of a recession with cuts, it’s just that it slows recovery. We had growth under Labour, and it’s not much comfort to only return to growth some years later.

    Clegg says that the austerity thing has been relaxed anyway…

  46. Ken

    “style”

    I wonder if Fergie is set to retire in order to scupper Jose > Chelski?? Would be a masterstroke if he ends up at MU instead.

  47. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22435095

    Much more important and relevant than what Peter Hain has to say about anything.

  48. PC

    The devious Socialist so-and-so.

    Not that I care like. The real entertainment this year has been in the FL.

  49. Steve
    “Much of the additional growth comes from the elderly and potentially mentally frail.

    The Majority IMO comes from those who aren’t interested in policies but perceptions.”

    Very offensive and insulting to millions of normal people .

  50. @Lefty

    Yes, it seems to have been a misjudgement by Ferguson on several levels. It’s these Historians again, innit…

    John Wasik on Forbes said “Keynes sacrificed his life, what has Ferguson sacrificed except his reputation?”

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