ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 32%(+4), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 9%(-3), UKIP 13(-1). Changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll at the end of March, before the death of Margaret Thatcher and before the recent narrowing in the polls which this poll obviously reflects to some extent.

UPDATE: The Sun have also tweeted tonight’s YouGov poll, which has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%. The UKIP score is the highest that YouGov have yet shown for the party. As ever, one shouldn’t read too much into a single poll but given the publicity that UKIP have received over the last few days it would not surprise me to see an increase. I would not expect lots of publicity about a handful of loony council candidates for UKIP to do them much harm to what is largely an anti-immigration, anti-government, anti-establishment and protest vote – people are sending a message, not picking a government. If anything the coverage of them, and the implication that other parties are taking them seriously enough to bother attacking them, could well help.


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