ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of CON 32%(+4), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 9%(-3), UKIP 13(-1). Changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll at the end of March, before the death of Margaret Thatcher and before the recent narrowing in the polls which this poll obviously reflects to some extent.

UPDATE: The Sun have also tweeted tonight’s YouGov poll, which has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%. The UKIP score is the highest that YouGov have yet shown for the party. As ever, one shouldn’t read too much into a single poll but given the publicity that UKIP have received over the last few days it would not surprise me to see an increase. I would not expect lots of publicity about a handful of loony council candidates for UKIP to do them much harm to what is largely an anti-immigration, anti-government, anti-establishment and protest vote – people are sending a message, not picking a government. If anything the coverage of them, and the implication that other parties are taking them seriously enough to bother attacking them, could well help.


101 Responses to “New ComRes and YouGov polls”

1 2 3
  1. Looks positive for blues, but the YG poll tonight less so.

  2. It’s very noticeable how the non YouGov pollsters’ estimates of Labour support are significantly lower and UKIP higher with the Con and LD in the same zone .

  3. There is a lot more interesting stuff in the ComRes poll;

    Of those questioned, 58 % agreed that the government’s economic plan had failed and that it would be time for a change of government in 2015, while 31% disagreed.

    Of coursem “time for a change of government” could be open to interptation, given that a Conservative majority would be a change in government, as well as a Labour-led or Labour majority government.

  4. Well we have 2 polls to chew over tonight with the Comres poll the most interesting in a way as it puts the Conservative VI up 4 points but always seems to put Labour lower anyway.
    As ever we do need a full week of Yougov results to give us a much better idea.

  5. So Ken Clark rightly identifies that some UKIP supporters and candidates are Closet ,Racists, Fascists and Homophobes and their support goes up.

    There is always a section of the Great British Public that never fail to live down to the lowest possible expectations.

  6. @ STEVE……….Clarke didn’t say,some, he tarred ’em all with the same brush, as a lawyer he should know better.

  7. Garage has an “interestingly” diverse ship to steer, doesn’t he.

    Noticed on Question Time that he’s backtracking on the flat tax thing.

    Can’t help wondering if this might have to do with the fact that a lot if his new support is quite keen on stuff like the NHS and nationalizing utilities etc.

  8. Garage = Farage. I think. ..

  9. Steve
    “So Ken Clark rightly identifies that some UKIP supporters and candidates are Closet ,Racists, Fascists and Homophobes and their support goes up.”

    The only quote I can find is that he said they are “fruitcakes, loonies, waifs and strays”

    Whatever he actually said, it seems a rather stupid strategy to attack around 14-15% of the electorate who already dislike traditional politicians. Is a short-term UKIP ‘Ken Clarke’ boost on the cards?

  10. I find it very interesting that despite the UKIP surge, the Tories are still polling around 30%. This would suggest that the explicitly right-wing parties have gone from a combined 40% in 2010 to 45% now.

    Is this because their policies have genuinely gained ground with the electorate, or have UKIP just stirred a lot of lapsed voters who didn’t show in 2010?

  11. Clarke’s words in full, as reported by the Guardian:

    “Asked if some Ukip members were ‘fruitcakes and loonies’, as David Cameron alleged some years ago, Clarke said he had met Ukip members who fitted that description.

    He went on: ‘Indeed, some of the people who have assured me they are going to vote Ukip I would put in that category and I rather suspect they’ve never voted for me.’

    He said many Ukip supporters were angry about the failure of the political class. The lure of Ukip for voters, he said, ‘is these are very difficult times, the political class are regarded as having got us into a mess. It’s very tempting to go for a collection of clowns or indignant, angry people who promise that somehow they’ll allow you to take revenge against the people who caused it.'”

    So, less categorical than Ken’s version, but not very flattering either. But to be honest I doubt the Ukippers are paying much attention to anything Ken Clarke says. He’s exactly the sort of Tory they switched parties to get away from.

  12. Pete B

    The only quote I can find is that he said they are “fruitcakes, loonies, waifs and strays”

    Remember Pete the polls show that most of them come from the Tory party

  13. Why don’t the Tories just attack the UKip policies instead of going for the ad hominems? He asked, rhetorically. ..

  14. @Mr. Nameless,

    I think it’s more that Ukip are pulling in disaffected Labour and Lib Dem voters who never previously supported rightwing parties. That support isn’t support for Ukip’s policies, it’s support for their anti-establishment attitude, and I’m not sure it will prove very robust at a general election, especially if Ukip’s manifesto comes under more serious scrutiny. The Labour defectors aren’t libertarian, and the Lib Dem defectors seem like easy pickings for the Greens.

  15. @Alec

    Well Labour had been polling consistently in the forties with both pollsters (save a few blips) since 2012 so I’d guess the Tories aren’t unhappy with them.

  16. Ken Clarke really is a fool, not realising that giving UKIP the oxygen of publicity is exactly what they crave.

  17. Well Mr Wells is not taking ukip seriously, he still hasn’t given them their own polling average box alongside the con,lab and lib ones

  18. I think that Ken Clarke was told to deliberately wind up the Kippers. IMO, the Tories are information gathering. They want to see what UKIP’s high water-mark is & whether good opinion poll ratings translate into actual votes at the local elections & in the South Shields by-election.

    If all the publicity & high polling doesn’t turn into votes for UKIP, then Ashcroft’s modernisers may have increased influence; if UKIP do get a high per cent of the vote, even if it doesn’t get them a lot of Councillors, then it’ll be full speed ahead for the Crosbyites.

  19. Amber ,

    I think you’re going down the conspiracy road . The South Shields by election is of no serious consequence and English Council elections are a very predictable game of musical chairs . Governing party loses , opposition does well .

    UKIP has been clocking up exceptional performances in Council by elections this year so it won’t be news when Labour and UKIP do well . It’s the mid term norm and won’t be news to veteran like Ken Clarke or any party strategist .

  20. @AMBER STAR

    RiN
    “You are too kind – but I rarely even read Cif these days; sadly, it has become something of a cess-pit.”

    ——————-

    It’s gone the way of numerous sites. Prior to the election one could read much involved debate about whether austerity would work etc… LDs and Tories obviously had their tails up. After the election many LDs immediately vanished, or disowned the party… leaving only the occasional bitter sniping from the sidelines. .. Since austerity didn’t work out as planned Tories have faded too, it’s mostly just soundbites now like “money tree!!” “Labour’s mess!!” etc. often completely out of context with the thread. There are still a few right-wingers of the more libertarian variety, and the odd UKipper. Many of the lefties were not big Labour fans to begin with. .. aside from the soundbites (which are thrown in as soon the thread is posted) it’s somewhat apolitical…

  21. @ Chasglas

    I think you’re going down the conspiracy road
    ——————
    I think you’ve misunderstood my comment.

  22. @ Carfrew

    Exactly!

  23. Good Morning All.

    Beautiful morning here in Bournemouth. Labour is campaigning hard in a working class ward in Christchurch, Dorset, on the edge of the New Forest. Christhcurch is very prosperous generally, but there are pockets of real deprivation.

    The polls point, I think, to neck and neck result in 2015, since the Blues should pick up popularity from now on into the GE race. Normally they have, when in government, even in 1964.

  24. “Ukip are pulling in disaffected Labour and Lib Dem voters”

    Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 11% (yesterday)
    UKIP:
    Con 2010 (17%) 6.14%, Lab 2010 (4%) 1.16%. LD 2010 (9%) 2.07%

    Con 30%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14% (today)
    UKIP:
    Con 2010 (22%) 7.94%, Lab 2010 (5%) 1.45%, LD 2010 (9%) 2.07%.

    7:1:2 has been for sometime, and continues to be roughly the proportion of Con:Lab:LD defectors to UKIP

  25. BILLY BOB.

    Thanks very much for your analysis.

  26. “The polls point, I think, to neck and neck result in 2015, since the Blues should pick up popularity from now on into the GE race. Normally they have, when in government, even in 1964.”

    Oft trotted out, and while there is some truth in this, I think others have found it less of an impact when looking at actual data.

    Also worth noting that many elections in this period were against the backdrop of an engineered boom, to fit the electoral cycle that was determined by the sitting PM. Not this time.

  27. @chrislane1945

    You’re welcome.

  28. Some quite harsh comment in places on Labour’s policy announcement yesterday with regards to spending increases. Some sources are claiming Ed’s response was poor, but on the day that a lot of attention was placed on the Universal Credit, I found this typically one eyed.

    The charge against Labour, and anyone who talks of stimulus and growth, is that they ‘would increase the deficit’. The defence against this is that it is only in the short term, with medium and long term borrowing falling, as employment and growth kick in.

    The practical concept behind Universal Credit is to increase spending in the short term, with medium and long term borrowing falling, as employment and growth kick in.

    Why is this approach acceptable for one of the central coalition policies, but not acceptable for Labour’s central policy?

  29. Pete

    Asked whether he agreed with David Cameron’s 2006 assessment that the party was packed with “fruitcakes and closet racists”, Mr Clarke replied: “I have met people who satisfy both those descriptions in Ukip.

    The Quote is from the Scotsman btw

  30. He added

    “Indeed, some of the people who have assured me they are going to vote UKIP I would put in that category. I rather suspect they have never voted for me.”

    That’s From the BEEB

  31. Alec
    You answered the question in the question –
    Because Coalition double plus good, Labour double plus bad.

    It’s exactly the same argument for removal of the automatic stabilisers – the automatic stabilisers are causing larger deficits in the short term, but are increasing aggregate demand.
    So surely if the state shouldn’t have policies for boosting short-term aggregate demand (with larger short-term deficits), the automatic stabilisers should be cut?

    Of course, you’ll find the opposite argument from the other side – Labour double plus good, Coalition double plus bad.

  32. Yes NIce work BB.
    For a while now – I have reckoned on a 4% gain for Con over Lab with a fall in UKIP vote to around 5% by the time of the GE and your numbers re-inforce my view.

    The approx 2% LD switchers are perhaps the hardest to split as most pro-EU party to least suggests these voters where LDs as anti Lab/Con rather than pro LD.

    Alec – agree I am waiting for an interviewer faced with a Government spokesperson who says cutting faster (as per ToH)is not the right balance to ask if that could be described as ‘too far too fast’

    Labour will need, though, to be more explicit about borrowing being higher for 2-3 years before the growth gains out weight the extra borrowing. Although in reality as long as you can still borrow without increasing the interest rate revenue from the extra growth only needs to be a little over the cost of servicing that extra debt over the cycle to be the right thing to do. (In fact as you have suggested recently if one takes a longer outlook and considers social fabric even not covering over 5-7 years would be OK but Labour will not be that bold in piblic at least)

    The Governments switch to defecit/GDP in order to claim 1/3 because of inflation may be helpful for them a little with short term reporting but may be useful to Labour in the long term as that way of looking at debt/defecit is more in line with Labours thinking than the Coalitions.

  33. Farage on the Today Programme discussing some of the questionable attitudes if their council election candidates.

    John Humphries: You’re not properly vetting your candidates are you?
    Farage: Well if the candidates have very, very odd views, we reject them.

    Begs to obvious question. Do they accept candidates whose views are only very odd?

  34. Morning All, Does anyone have a working link to today’s YouGov data tables? The one on their website is broken.

  35. Chris Grayling the Justice Minister has said inmates must “actively earn privileges” and are being warned a simple absence of bad behaviour will “not be enough”.

    I am only mentioning this in this forum because I feel it illustrates How Government Policy is being IMHO supplanted with things that will look good in the Daily Mail and improve VI.

    Having personally been responsible for the incarceration of a reasonable number of the inmates of HMP’s. I am aware that the removal of privileges when prisoners do not behave is the most useful tool prison authorities have in keeping a lid on potential disorder.

    Removing this facility will have serious implications for those who are charged with it’s implementation.

  36. Still think the two main parties ae going about UKIP the wrong way. Instead of name calling and attempting to close down the argument on the basis of that, they should tackle them head on. Lets face it, what actually are their domestic policies?, I don’t have much idea, and surely they would struggle in a full blown domestic policy debate. The way the two parties are tackling UKIP just feels like a cosy consensus. In fact there was talk yesterday they both want UKIP kept out of any election TV debates, something guaranteed to have the opposite desired effect!

  37. Whenever the Tories attack UKIP, the polls appear to show UKIP VI increasing. There must be people out there , natural Tories but flirting with UKIP, who think that if the Tories are attacking their opponents, that they are worried that UKIP have a point.

    On a totally different subject. Quite alarming story on BBC World Service about Chinese Human Organs being taken from prisoners who are killed. There is no proof that the state government are involved, but apparently in some provences there are allegations of prisoners being taken into hospitals where their organs have been harvested.

    There have been allegations before that organs have been taken from executed prisoners who had received death penalty on their conviction. But these latest allegations are that prisoners convicted of less serious crimes are being treated in the same way. The allegations mention thousands of prisoners, who are taken to hospitals, tested for quality of organs e.g eyes scanned for health of corneas. They are then marketed on a organ sale site and when the organs are bought, they are they harvested and the donor killed.

    This sounds like something you would read in a fictional horror type book, but apparently the authors of these allegations say they have good sources. e.g doctors who have been involved in taking organs. I just did a quick internet search and there is further info online. I have not heard any UK policitian talking about this, but it is worrying if there is an international trade in human organs, where the organs have been taken in this way. Some of the organ recipients have flown into Asian hosptials to have the transplants.

  38. Rich

    I agree.

    Their domestic policies in the 2010 GE were like those of the Tea Party with all the sense wrung out.

    In a nutshell, they want the biggest shift of wealth from poorer to richer in modern history. The 31% flat-rate tax would hugely benefit the very wealthiest whilst giving a tiny amount to median earners through a higher allowance. That one policy itself is enough to ensure that UKIP’s working class vote would evaporate if people understood it.

    If you look at the rest of their economic policies from their 2010 manifesto, you get the impression that they have said to a dozen wealth backers, “Right, what specific thing would you like us to include? A comment of the importance of pump valves? Righto. We’ll slip that in on page 4 I think. A huge programme of flat-pack prison construction? Good idea Sir! Do you happen to be in the ‘Off-Site Manufacturing business Sir? Eh? Eh? Say no more Sir. In on page 5.”

    Etc, etc.

    http://www.ukip.org/media/pdf/UKIPmanifesto1304a.pdf

  39. Link still broken.

  40. In a nutshell, they want the biggest shift of wealth from poorer to richer in modern history. The 31% flat-rate tax would hugely benefit the very wealthiest whilst giving a tiny amount to median earners through a higher allowance. That one policy itself is enough to ensure that UKIP’s working class vote would evaporate if people understood it.
    ——–

    -It also means a Pensioner on Basic Rate tax would see a 10p in the £ rise in tax as currently they don’t pay NIC and UKIP did (and I believe still do) propose that NIC will be removed.

    Farage said recently that they have changed their flat rate policy to include a 40% top rate which even if it’s true still amounts to an additional average £100,000 tax cut for millionaires.

    Realistic estimations are that UKIP’s fiscal polices would leave a black whole of non- financed tax cuts and other gimmicks that cost £120 Billion a Year.

  41. Today’s YG tables can be found from the column “recent results in politics” on news/categories/politics/

  42. Yesterday’s Kearney/EM interview has had predictable commentary from political diarists this morning.

    I was accused here, yesyerday, of being “sad” in commenting that this interview was a bad indicator for Labour, and a good one for Cons , come the GE.

    So it was with interest that I read a piece by no less than Peter Kellner this morning in The Times, headlined ” Ed Miliband doesnt sound like the next PM”.

    I think Kearney turns her attentions to DC next so we shall see how he performs in comparison.

    But PK expresses the thought which occurred to me on hearing the interview :-“”if he has difficulty in fending off the courteous if persistent Martha Kearney, how can he hope to dodge the daggers that even now Lynton Crosby is doubtless planning to hurl at him when the election campaign proper gets under way?”

    I was thinking more of Paxo-but it’s the same thought.

  43. An interesting feature of the YG tables is that sentiment has shifted against the Conservatives and towards Labour on a range of issues since 14-15 April (NHS, law and order, education, unemployment, economy). However this reverses the shifts towards the Cons seen over the previous survey on March 24-5 which Colin dubbed the Happy Tory syndrome.

    So either there has been a genuine shift to and fro again, or 14-15 April was just a more pro-Con sample. I’m inclined toward the latter theory on the grounds that a whole range of issues moving in sync is rather unlikely.

  44. 22% of Con 2010’ers declaring for UKIP in this morning’s YG Poll !

  45. UKIP U-turned on supporting HS2 when it realised how unpopular it was. To be blunt UKIP might be semi-fascist but it’s been a lot more effective on this issue than the Green Party.

  46. It is always easier for a Prime Minister to appear Prime Ministerial than it is for a Leader of the Opposition , especially One who hasn’t previously held the post.

    With the exception of Tony Blair in 96/97. When most assumed He was Prime Minister in Waiting. I can’t think of any occasion when this wasn’t the case.

    IMO Ed is making a good fist of his role , the absence of the opportunity to put Cameron on the Spot (Only 2 PMQ between Mid April and June, doesn’t help.

  47. A friend of mine voted UKIP at the 2010 election and will do so again in 2015.

    We had a discussion on why and all he could come up with was immigration,He wants the borders closed and the UK to pull out of europe entirely.

    He then went off on one about how we should build up our armed forces and create a empire again :)

    Another friend has told me that the universal credit roll out is in trouble and does not have a hope of being ready.

  48. Steve

    I agree. It must be hard to get a fair hearing when the majority of the media is hostile to the message & the messenger.

    All the public hear if the negative because the good speeches etc are ignored or buried away in the paper at page 12 whereas any message from the ‘right’ is given prominence.

  49. @ Chordata

    I believe the BBC are biased towards the left so i suppose the balance is about right :)

  50. Garage? Excellent!

    Ad hominem is entirely appropriate for dealing with closet fascists.
    Take the piss on every available opportunity.

    Meanwhile judging by the Comres poll the LDs are still acting as the Tories whipping boys.

1 2 3