This week’s YouGov results for the Sunday Times are now up here. Topline results are CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11% (slightly bigger Labour lead than other YouGov polls this week, but nothing outside the normal margin of error. We’d need to see some consistent 10 and 11 point leads before pondering whether the recent narrowing in the polls had faded away again).

The rest of the poll had various questions about party leaders, UKIP and the Conservatives, some questions on Abu Qatada, benefits and the NHS. Let’s start with Nigel Farage. Asked whether he is doing a good or bad job as leader of UKIP Farage gets very positive ratings – 44% think he is doing well, 20% badly giving him a positive job approval rating of +24, compared to the negative ratings of the three main party leaders. Of course, based on the actual question asked people should say this, whether someone likes or dislikes Farage’s politics, if you’ve taken a minor party that got under 3% at the last election to around 11% in the polls you are doing a good job!

Compare and contrast this to when YouGov asks if Miliband, Clegg and Farage would make a better PM than David Cameron. Despite a much, much better job approval rating only 11% think Farage would be better at being PM, 40% think he would be worse. Now, I don’t think any serious commentators were thinking that UKIP support was based on people thinking they were a serious alternative government anyway (it is largely a vote based on anti-immigration, anti-Liberalism sentiment, an anti-government protest and general positive reactions towards Farage’s anti-politician stance), but it underlines the difference between job approval ratings and whether people think a politician is a plausible Prime Minister. People thinking you are doing a good job as the leader of a minor party is clearly not the same thing as people thinking you’d do a good job running a country.

Asked about Cameron himself, a third of people say he has not done enough to modernise the Conservatives, 24% that he has gone too far and abandoned too many traditional Tory policies, 20% that he has gone the balance about right. As you’d expect, most current Tories think he has got things about right, most Labour and Lib Dem supporters than he hasn’t gone far enough, most UKIP supporters that he has gone too far. There is an even divide (36% to 36%) over whether David Cameron is a Thatcherite or not, though the party split is interesting – it is Labour supporters who are most likely to think Cameron is a Thatcherite (presumably respondents who do not regard this as a good thing!), most Conservative supporters don’t think he is. Only 15% think that Cameron was right when he said “we are all Thatcherites now”.

Abu Qatada

61% of people think that Qatada should be deported regardless of what happens to him in Jordan, compared to 25% who think that he should only be deported if we are satisfied that evidence gained from torture will not be used against him. However, when people are asked directly whether it would or would not acceptable for evidence obtained from torture to be used against Abu Qadata 51% say it would be unacceptable, compared to just 28% who accept it – an apparent contradiction in people’s views. My guess is that this is down to people thinking it is wrong for evidence from torture to be used against Abu Qatada… but that it is not an excuse for him to remain in Britain (essentially a “yeah, it’s very wrong, but it’s not our problem”).

Benefits

Asked about the general overall package of benefit changes that the government have introduced over the last month (including cutting council tax benefit, capping benefits, reducing benefits below the rate of inflation and the so-called “bedroom tax”), a majority (56%) say that on balance they support the changes, compared to 31% who are opposed. Supporters of the benefit changes include a third of Labour voters.

Accident and Emergency

Overall 29% per cent of people think A&E has got worse since the coalition came to power, compared to just 5% who think it has improved and 32% who think it has stayed the same (and compared to a more neutral verdict about what happened under Labour). People are less negative about A&E at their own local hospital – amongst those who have attended their local A&E in the last three years 21% think it has got better, 28% worse, 40% stayed the same. This is a fairly common pattern we also see on crime, schools and about people’s own MPs, people are more positive about their own local services than they are about services in the country as a whole.


308 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 11”

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  1. @Paul Croft

    I wonder if Amber’s ever read The Star? Unless you mean the Morning Star?

  2. raf “@Paul Croft

    I wonder if Amber’s ever read The Star? Unless you mean the Morning Star”

    I didn’t know editors had to. Anyway I never have but the piks are great.

  3. RAF

    The Guardian is going through a moral fog. They were to very epitome of the wooly headed thinking that convinced itself that the LDs could give us nice, cuddly soft-leftiness without those nasty illiberal traits of the more vicious New Labourites.

    The last 3 years has knocked their editorial team right off its axis. They cannot admit error – they invested too much capital in the LD support. But they know they made a catastrophic error. So they wriggle around like a fish on a quayside trying to find an intellectually coherent response to the outcome of GE10. And none exists for them, apart from holding up their hands, admitting the mistake and deciding which side of the political debate they really stand for.

    Until they do that, it is pointless reading the paper.

  4. Carfrew
    What’s this reading a newspaper with friends? I would be unhappy about them handing back their loaned pages crumpled. If they all have their own laptops, they can do their own thing.

    Mrs H and reached that conclusion long ago. In any case, I know she is reading gossipy crap in the Mail, and is not interested in the latest output from the DfT in Marsham Street. Nor is she sneakily clicking onto ‘Cheerleader revelations’ in the Chicago Tribune’.

    We have, thanks to the internet, a whole new set of information sources for voters.

  5. @ Lefty

    Couldn’t agree more re the Guardian. I think though also, probably because of lower circulation, their news stories aren’t as good either. A very opinion based paper rather than news which might simply come down to not being able to put enough reporters on the road or provide in depth analyis. Telegraph much better in that respect.

    ‘i’ tends to cover my needs and my budget. Used to love News On Sunday if anyone remembers that one and Mirror good during an election campaign for raising the spirits and good for analysing polls with a 10 point Tory lead and working out how that poll is actually a disaster for the Tories :-)

    I always find though with newspapers if it is a subject I call myself an ‘expert’ in how poor they actually are.

  6. @Howard

    Sure, I wasn’t advocating an either/or. The net is useful too. I was just answering your question as to why buy papers.

    Hoiking laptops around the city is a bit of a pain, especially if you plan to stay out into the evening for a few Bourbons, see a gig etc.

    I don’t mind the crumpled pages… I treat the paper when out as a disposable item. Read it and leave it for others. Others buy a paper too and you can swap.
    My newsagent round the corner gives them me half-price anyway. Which is nice. ..

    It’s worth keeping up a bit with what others are reading even if gossipy so you can be on the same page…

  7. @ Howard

    Once upon the time in Hungary workers on some days had to arrive half an hour earlier to “discuss” the editorial of the largest daily (Szabad Nép – Free People) – it was actually read out. Maybe reading newspapers with friends is a version of it (actually these Free People half-hours had a meaning for a short period).

    But I have to agree with Carfrew – the FT goes well with coffee and whoever makes the morning tea here has the right to read the main section first.

  8. Reading newspapers with friends is also efficient. You can cover more ground between you and if they know what you are into they can draw your attention to things. Actually it’s handy for sharing what you are into.

    Also you can have good rant about something in the paper, or a laugh, which isnt as effective when on your own.

  9. @CRAIG (fpt)

    “Just seen it’s on a demographic basis – although there should be enough for a Labour victory on a leftist platform now on those terms, but it’s not a possibility – for the same reason it won’t be a possibility in 2020 (ie an entirely middle-class political class couldn’t stomach the possibility).”

    —————-

    Well there has always been a middle-class political class but it didn’t stop old Labour in the past. The issue currently is that even with the left split reunited, there isn’t necessarily a mandate for the kind of leftist platform you might like.

    Labour are polling well enough at the moment to ensure victory but they are not offering a very left wing agenda. If they were to shift left now they could lose votes without gaining many. With the split ended, the lefties are mostly behind Labour anyway. To compensate for losses if they moved left they would therefore have to pick up from those not currently interested in voting which is quite the risk.

    The demographics matter because there are lot of babyboomers who have – whether accidentally or not – effectively been bought off, with freebies and tax cuts in the eighties, high property prices after that and currently protection from the cuts. Yesterday IDS suggested the wealthy pensioners voluntarily cede their benefits. Which is nice for them to have the option. Poor, disabled people are not given the option of voluntarily paying the spare bedroom thing of course.

    Babyboomers are rather used to this and hence it’s no surprise if they are rather in favour of the neoliberal thing since Tories currently and New Labour previously both contrived to make sure others took the hit rather more than the big, active voting bloc of babyboomers.

    You have also to bear in mind the role of unemployment in all this. We didn’t used to worry about welfare costs because close to full employment. Now with significant unemployment, welfare is potentially a vote loser.

    Thus for Labour to shift left they need fewer babyboomers, leaving more of the younger people who didn’t get the freebies. Even many young aspirant middle class folk nowadays have to wrestle with property prices, internships etc.

    But also if they focus on employment then welfare stops being such an issue, leaving space to move further left on things that many are in fact in favour of, like sorting out the utilities.

    The next election therefore, if Labour get in, may be a case of marking time somewhat. The focus should be on employment, not just because of welfare costs but also growth and improving living standards. And it wont annoy babyboomers too much since in retiring they aren’t so affected by employment and if they are still working will benefit from the positive effect on wages. Won’t happinate employers re: wage costs but with more people earning they’ll be able to sell more.

    In the process it leaves Labour better placed to fight the next election after on a platform more of their choosing. At the moment, though we desperately need to build housing no one takes it on, and no surprise given the potential impact on house prices. But it will gradually become more electorally attractive. A lot depends on the rate at which babyboomers decline as a voting force. Any numbers on that?…

  10. @ SHEVII

    “Used to love News On Sunday if anyone remembers that one and Mirror good during an election campaign for raising the spirits and good for analysing polls with a 10 point Tory lead and working out how that poll is actually a disaster for the Tories :-)”

    Haha i remember that also, If i remember rightly they always congratulated the torys on another election won the day after though.

    I still read the Mail but its becoming a bit tedious now.

  11. Carfrew (and supporters)

    Yes but I think is such a shame when the butler has gone to such trouble to deliver the newspaper so crisply ironed.

    I am also so surprised that those of you who are so decided in your views need to discuss them with friends. After all, the first rule of friendship is not to discuss politics surely? No, that’s the second rule, silly me.

  12. @ HOWARD………..I share your view on newspapers, I don’t bother with them any more, although when I was a banker we had a variety of publications delivered, in fact we had a sort of archivist who cut stuff out and stored it for reference. Nowadays the web is the fount of all knowledge, and far more efficient.

  13. @Howard

    There are better uses for butlers, surely. Like updating status pages and stuff. Ripping CDs, uploading vid clips to the net. Backing up the smartphone. ..

    This may come as a surprise but there is rather more in newspapers to discuss besides politics. Music reviews, travel, tech and gadgets., wine reviews, sport, theatre, book recommendations…

    Also you meet others while out and about who you may not know well and papers can give an early heads-up as to where they are coming from to avoid anything a bit uncomfortable. This is especially useful with the “shy” voters. ..

  14. LEFTY

    It depends on the type of stimulus, the country & its economy type.

    Anyway-the last time I responded to a post of yours on economics-you never got to read it-so I aren’t going to waste my time.

  15. KEN

    “In fact we had a sort of archivist who cut stuff out and stored it for reference.”

    ———-

    Obviously not industrial scale but for personal use: a smartphone with a scanner app. With OCR to pull out the text to make it searchable.

  16. @COLIN

    “Anyway-the last time I responded to a post of yours on economics-you never got to read it-so I aren’t going to waste my time.”

    ——-

    Ooh, that’s a new one. Getting quite a collection. ..

  17. @Leftylampton – ” …nice, cuddly”

    It wasn’t just the LDs in the run up to 2010, how enamoured were Guardian columnists with one of their own?
    Cameron’s 2001-2004 archive can be read here:

    h
    ttp://politics.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Archive/0,,649666,00.html

    The Guardian endorsed:
    Labour in 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1979, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001.
    Liberal/LD in 1950, 1974 (Feb), 1974 (Oct), 1983 (SDP-Liberal Alliance), 2010.
    Labour and Liberal/LD in 1945, 2005.
    Conservative 1955.
    Conservative and Liberal 1951.

  18. Colin
    Are you going into Paul Croft mode (‘I aren’t’)?
    Carfrew
    All that arty stuff is on the net newspapers too, had you not noticed?

    Meeting others? That sounds risky.

  19. @COLIN

    Oh I understand the logic.
    It’s the maths & the timescale , let alone the principle, which is worthy of some thought.
    He really did not want to say , under much invitation from Kearney, that he would increase short term borrowing.

    *********************
    I guess it is no more improbable than Reaganomics which also increased the US deficit leaving GH bush with a headache – but hey we’re constantly told what a genius Ronnie was!

  20. @ CARFREW……… I have an iphone and ipad these days, a whole new world has been opened up to me.

  21. @Howard

    1) You are changing the subject. You had issues with talking politics, I was giving reasons for why that wasn’t necessary. Then you switch it to whether it’s on the net or not

    2) And anyway as explained there are advantages to newspapers over the net.
    3) You can’t get it all on the net. A lot of publications restrict what they put in the net, which is especially true for magazines, but also papers. ..

    4) My way I don’t have to subscribe to Murdoch to read the Times online. I can just do a swap and spend the money on a Rudy van Gelder teamster it something

  22. Teamster = teamster

    Yep, meeting people is risky especially regarding bubble issues. But can also be rather gud. …

  23. @Lefty

    “Until they do that, it is pointless reading the paper.”

    Do you only read papers with a particular political stance? I’d rather have all the papers with no stance on politics. We might have less-partisan news reporting.

  24. Argh teamster = remaster !!!!!!!!!!

  25. Any polls tonight?

  26. Sun has tweeted the poll for today but nothing to get excited about though they are about UKiP’s VI percentage.

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: UKIP hit a record high of 14%, taking support off Labour and Tories. CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%.

  27. Ken
    Obviously the world really is now one’s oyster. I start off with some innocent query about some reported outrage in a South American country and before I know it, I have learned of the topography of the area concerned, also their economic and environmental issues and have developed a thirst to know more and more and -then I realise I fell asleep and cannot remember why I was viewing the images in the first place.

    Not quite as bad as described above, but my thirst for more knowledge and more insight means, for instance, that I have something like 50 foreign newspapers in my bookmarks and that’s only the half of what I am into.

    What I don’t get is why our younger friends don’t do this; – ah, yes, I remember, they just want get to screw. Well, I did too, when I was their age.

    Those are my deep political thoughts this evening.

  28. JOHN MURPHY

    I don’t think anyone is going to be make an issue about Reaganomics in the UK 2015 GE.

    But I’m pretty sure someone will ask how you make a tax reduction of £12bn without increasing borrowing in that year.

    What happens in future years ( or what EM called “the medium term” ) is , as Kearney observed ” anyone’s guess”., …………as is the actual meaning of ” the medium term”.

  29. @KEN

    Indeed. I use a Nexus 7 out and about since it’ll fit into a jacket inside pocket unlike an iPad. .. even the Mini’s awkward for that.

  30. Ken Clarke, dinosaur of the Tory parish, was criticised by BoJo today, for shouting at UKIP, on the UKIP front it’s all getting lovely and interesting. Go Nige!

  31. @ CARFREW…………’ave a word with PAULCROFT, you can be techie monitor, we need some edgy input.

  32. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOF RED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  33. @Colin
    It wasn’t me who referred to Miliband ‘fending off”‘ Martha K. I didn’t hear the interview.

    I stopped buying the Graun yonks ago. I felt vindicated when one of their leading commentators-,Julian someone or other- jumped ship to become a speech writer for Cameron.

    I have the ‘I’ delivered. It’s a good read and a bargain at 20p.

  34. Colin
    Your punctuation is impeccable and your grammar too, so I was surprised, excuse the remark, which was not intended other than a joke about PC’s faux vernacular. I think, as I sadly too often do, you hit ‘enter’ too quickly.

    I follow your remarks on ‘stimulus’ issues too. I posted earlier that one man’s stimulus is another’s reckless gamble.

    It’s the outcome that decides who was right politically. Do any of us, long enough in the tooth, think Nigel Lawson was a ‘marvellous chancellor’.

  35. Valerie, what’s the ‘I’ – is it the tabloid Indy? If so, i assume that’s what I read on the net (??).

  36. Colin
    I mean, that I, sadly, often hit enter too quickly, as I have just demonstrated.

  37. “then I realise I fell asleep and cannot remember why I was viewing the images in the first place.”

    ———————

    Which is another reason for reading a paper with friends over a nice invigorating espresso.

  38. KEN
    “@ CARFREW…………’ave a word with PAULCROFT, you can be techie monitor, we need some edgy input.”

    —————-

    These days tech for me is more about “easy life” than “edgy”, to be fair.

    I don’t know that Paulie is down with the technology thing. He does have a flute tho. …

  39. Carfrew

    Self deprecating humour works for B Johnston so why not for me? Don’t answer that. I don’t want to be associated with that sort of image anyway.

    Not that it matters a fig on the anonymous net anyway.

  40. @ CARFREW…………No, but he is self-appointed monitor, monitor.

  41. Toby Young [email protected]

    Seems like quite a few voters heard Mili on #wato. ComRes/Indy poll: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%

  42. Andrew Hawkins [email protected]_ComRes 30m

    ComRes/Independent: Lab 38(-) Con 32(+4) UKIP 13 (-1) LD 9 (-3) Other (-1) http://ht.ly/kxsSu
    Retweeted by Toby Young

  43. @Howard

    Dunno. But since you ask, Being self-deprecating usually involves putting oneself down, as opposed to talking about how many foreign news sites you read etc.

  44. Katie
    Chuckle. If since Monday lunchtime, then smart work by ComRes.

  45. KEN
    “@ CARFREW…………No, but he is self-appointed monitor, monitor.”

    ———————

    Are you wanting elections then?

  46. Carfrew
    Well it was intended to demonstrate nerd behavior but i suppose I got that wrong too. Now, how’s that for self -deprecation?

  47. PC has my vote for MM. He invented it, so original thought rules OK.

  48. @Howard

    So now you want to big yourself up over how self-deprecating? ??

    ???.

  49. Statgeek

    I didn’t say it was pointless reading the Guardian because I didn’t agree with its political stance. I said it was pointless because it is currently incoherent. ( And I’m talking about editorial policy here – of course ALL papers have interesting articles. Well…nearly all.)

    As it happens, I read everything from the Mirror to the Telegraoh at various times. The latter is particularly informative, because it reminds me that an England that I’d assumed we left behind somewhere between Passchedaele and Dunkirk still lives on. If I didn’t read the DT every now and again, I’d forget that.

  50. Statgeek

    I didn’t say it was pointless reading the Guardian because I didn’t agree with its political stance. I said it was pointless because it is currently incoherent. ( And I’m talking about editorial policy here – of course ALL papers have interesting articles. Well…nearly all.)

    As it happens, I read everything from the Mirror to the Telegraoh at various times. The latter is particularly informative, because it reminds me that an England that I’d assumed we left behind somewhere between Passchedaele and Dunkirk still lives on. If I didn’t read the DT every now and again, I’d forget that.

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