This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. For the time being at least we seem to have settled into a Labour lead of about 8 points in YouGov’s daily polling.

To pick up on another couple of questions from earlier in the week, on the suggestion by Len McCluskey that there should be a general strike, 57% of people said they would oppose a general strike with 27% in support. Naturally large majorities of Conservative and Lib Dem supporters were opposed, amongst Labour supporters 49% said they would support a general strike, 33% were opposed. Ed Miliband has totally dismissed the idea of a general strike and said it would a terrible idea – asked before Miliband commented, 40% of people said that Labour should oppose any such strike, 21% that they should support it, 27% that Labour should remain neutral.

On the same poll, George Osborne continued to be narrowly preferred to Ed Balls as best Chancellor, 29% to 24%. Asked the same question about whether people would prefer George Osborne or Alistair Darling as Chancellor, Darling is narrowly ahead 25% to 29%. The contrast isn’t vast, but obviously Darling does appeal to some parts that Ed Balls does not.


266 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 12”

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  1. Mark Johnson

    I usually vote Conservative Who would have guest.

  2. Great news for Brum. A survey just out, produced by, X-Wealth, shows that my Alma Mater, Birmingham University, produces the highest proportion of, ‘self-made’ millionaires, of any Uni in the UK, 84% of those graduating as, or becoming, millionaires, are self-made. Where there’s muck, there’s brass.

  3. Once Darling Has seen off Salmond in the Scottish Independence Referendum He will be available just in time to improve Labours fiscal Credibility as Shadow Chancellor.

    A tad harsh on EB who has assessed the austerity plan’s impact on the economy with a remarkable degree of accuracy. However,despite being right the public don’t seem to take to him.

    Mrs Balls would make a good alternative.

  4. @Rogerrebel – you can actually tell who most people would vote for on here so please don’t just single me out Roger -lol
    And by the way you don’t spell Guessed like that Roger – lol

  5. I expect more narrowing of the polls as the result of good economic news
    Ken

    I wouldn’t hold your breath mate

  6. @ Statgeek

    Had the strikes been about something such as safety issues, the country would have been behind the strikers.
    ——————-
    I was not talking about political power. Perhaps I should have used the word leverage instead of power. I was writing about having the power to win the dispute.

    We already know from polling that the TUC issues regarding pensions, pay & workers rights are not things about which the public will pressurise the government following a one day strike!

    Voters who care about these issues are already aware of them. People who don’t care won’t be swayed by a one day strike to ‘raise their awareness’.

    So, if the unions wish to change their employers’ minds, they need to have that as their objective, have good reason to believe that it is achievable & be ready for a long, hard fought strike.

    I support the TUC position: that workers are being unnecessarily targeted for cuts based on ideology not necessity. Hence I will support the strike, if it happens.
    But IMO, it will not achieve any useful objective so I cannot see the point of it. I would very much like to wrong about this.

  7. Liz/Alec/Jim Jam – A friend of a friend used to go delivering with a wooden spatula, which she would use to push leaflets through stiff letterboxes and save her fingers.

    Only ever delivering injury I had was a delivering to a house which had a door that was partially glazed with safety glass. Directly above the letter box the glass was all cracked as if from a previous impact. I remember pondering what could have caused the glass to crack in such an odd place as I put the leaflet through the door, only for what sounded like several stone of hitherto unseen dog to violently collide with the other side of the door as it if had been shot from some sort of angry dog catapult. Dog didn’t get my fingers, but the letterbox slamming on them during the dog-collision did.

  8. @ STEVE……….My shooting coach always tells me to aim slightly high, to account for gravity, I approach my polling predictions in the same manner.

  9. Spearmint
    “It did get coverage when a whole stadium did it simultaneously.”

    You made me chortle with the memory.

    Re dogs – we have big, heavy dogs so in consideration of our postie & to ensure our mail is delivered intact, we fixed a lockable post box over the letterbox slot in the door.

    Simples – as that meerkat says….

  10. Yes,l got a nasty nip on a finger tip from a letterbox ambushing terrier once .
    Happy days!

  11. Ken: I expect more narrowing of the polls as the result of good economic news

    ‘Green shoots’, stronger growth than France and Germany (and only marginally behind the USA) and a continued vagueness as to what Labour’s Plan B actually involves (especially if the Govt’s Plan A turns out to work after all) will certainly see the gap narrowing.

  12. @ JimJam

    I read @Statgeek’s & responded before I’d read your comments. I completely agree with you; & thank you for understanding what I’d written & for then clarifying it so well.

  13. Let’s not jinx anything with talk of “green shoots”. As Alec says, it may be going to ratsh*t soon anyway.

  14. Liz/Alec/Jim Jam – A friend of a friend used to go delivering with a wooden spatula, which she would use to push leaflets through stiff letterboxes and save her fingers.

    ——
    I worked for a few months as a Franchise Milkman I should of used this method with those ****ds who had a Rottweiler permanently behind the front door.

    A Wolf growling at you in the wee small hours of the morning can do terrible things to your water works

  15. I doubt the polls will narrow any further. Economic news rarely has any significant impact on polling in the short-term. I suspect we may be stuck with Labour leads of 7-11 points for some time yet.

  16. LizH

    “Had no problems with dogs so far. The battle here is usually between the LibDems and Torys ”

    ……………………………………………………………………………….

    My vote would be for the dogs any time Liz.

  17. @ Anthony

    Thank you for sharing the spatula tip; I’m using one in the future.

  18. Mind you getting the bottles through the letter box was always a bit tricky.

  19. Ewen/Chordata,

    As a brat with a paper round, I remember one house had a large dog (….or similar creature…) who would launch itself at the letterbox as soon as I pushed the paper through. The letterbox was very narrow, so I needed to feed the paper through, meaning my fingers often came into contact with the gnashing teeth.

    When the owner refused to control his hellspawned hound, I then decided to have a tug of war with the beast, only relenting once the paper was badly ripped and covered in drool.

  20. @ Croftee

    LOL. I am pretty good at Jockney rhyming slang already & give baffled Americans tuition in it so I’ll probably learn the original fairly quickly. But there’s not a chance of me adopting that weird accent which Osborne affects when he’s talking to the ‘plebs’ at Morrisons! ;-)

  21. @AW
    “Stabilised” begs the question of what changed. Is this the stable point reached when the water in a tank empties to below the level of the hole? Or is it the stable point at low tide, when for a while you can move to the water’s edge and build a sandcastle?

  22. Steve – LOL

    Steve2 – yeah, our rottie launches himself at the door (never had a dog do that before\) hence the letterbox across the slot to prevent people pushing stuff through.

  23. Thanks for this update Anthony, it in part backs up what I have said for some time, that Darling would be a very good option for Labour. My personal view is that the centre ground electorate might well see him as a halfway house between Osbourne on full austerity and Ed Balls seemingly opposing every single spending cut in favour of additional borrowing.

    I think its a reasonable assumption that some austerity, over a longer period, combined with targeted stimulus just ‘feels’ like a sensible option to the centre ground layman.

  24. @ Rich

    Osbourne
    ————–
    I don’t usually point out spelling errors but it should be Osborne.

  25. Would Darling lose popularity with Labour voters after following the Tory approved austerity route though? It’s easy to be preferred when the question is hypothetical…..and 5 points isn’t exactly a massive head start over Balls to start with.

  26. Never seen a letterbox ambush a terrier before, but I’ve often pondered whether you can milk a franchise. The wonders of the English language consistently amaze.

    I’m now working around the image of the ‘Angry Dog Catapult’ in my mind. Sounds like a classic ACME cartoon prop to me, but the question is whether the dog is angry before of after being catapulted, or indeed whether the dog is perfectly laid back and the catapult is just having a bad day.

    My own story relates to the cat flap (is that a flap for cats, or a feline in a strop?) we used to have, and how our large mongrel dog used to ram his head through it when anyone knocked on the door. Friends knew to knock and step back, strangers felt a sharp knock just below the knee.

  27. And I say that as someone who is somewhat a fan of Darling….I think he always seems quite polished. Both Osborne and Balls are kind of smarmy and irritating IMO. But in terms of policy, I can’t see Labour voters really taking to Darling’s austerity.

  28. This activism thing seems jolly dangerous…

  29. @Amber
    Is Jockney rhyming slang a real thing? I’d be interested if it is. My dear old dad still uses a sort of rhyming slang he learned during his early years working in the Teesside shipyards in the 50s (quite different to cockney RS) so I wondered if the Clyde had a similar tradition. It’d make a great doctoral thesis but I’d need an interpreter north of the Tweed!

  30. Did anybody see QT last night? It was quite interesting to see the rather muted and apathetical reaction both the Labour and Conservative representatives were getting to their answers, compared to Farage who often seemed to be getting huge applause. Does this bode well for them in the councils?

  31. @RICH

    I think its a reasonable assumption that some austerity, over a longer period, combined with targeted stimulus just ‘feels’ like a sensible option to the centre ground layman.

    ————–

    Pretty much.

    If you have a minor deficit problem you can just cut back on relative frivolities.

    As the deficit problem becomes more major, increasingly cuts start becoming a bit six-and-two-threes. Eg selling your car to save money only now you can’t get to work. Or in economic terms… making cuts that also depress demand so business doesn’t invest and sits on piles of money as currently.

    So what you gain by cuts you can lose in depressed tax receipts and increased welfare costs etc.

    In that situation you need to both make the cuts that don’t have such nasty knock ons AND try and up your income, which may involve some investment.

    It is all about rates of return. How much do you really gain from each cut in practice? And equally, which investments give you the best, quickest and most reliable return? Roads to nowhere are not as good as roads to somewhere; housing is quicker than HST 2 etc.

    Hence considering multipliers which is basically applying the straightforward business practice of rates-of-return but to the economy.

  32. Dogs aren’t so bad when you’re just delivering leaflets. The real difficulty comes when you’re meant to be talking to people to get voting intention/sign up volunteers, and you have to shout over the Hound of the Baskervilles to be heard or capture the tiny terrier dashing out the open door before it runs into the street and gets itself run over, thereby turning the bereaved owner off your party forever…

  33. @RICH
    I think its a reasonable assumption that some austerity, over a longer period, combined with targeted stimulus just ‘feels’ like a sensible option to the centre ground layman.
    ————–
    Pretty much.

    If you have a minor deficit problem you can just cut back on relative frivolities.

    As the deficit problem becomes more major, increasingly cuts start becoming a bit six-and-two-threes. Eg selling your car to save money only now you can’t get to work. Or in economic terms… making cuts that also depress demand so business doesn’t invest and sits on piles of money as currently.
    So what you gain by cuts you can lose in depressed tax receipts and increased welfare costs etc.

    In that situation you need to both make the cuts that don’t have such nasty knock ons AND try and up your income, which may involve some investment.

  34. Delivering leaflets is something one should not do, full stop. A dog who took a chunk from my leg cost his owner several thousands of pounds and brought an end to my ability to enter any private property, anywhere, alone.

    I had given up political work anyway by then but that would have finished it.

    The dog owner’s excuse of ‘Had I seen you coming, I would have called him back’ did not cut it I am afraid.

    I know this will annoy but what the ****. Many dog owners have a certain logical reasoning ability missing.

    A dog really is an animal but they think it is a human.

  35. @carfrew,

    I get your point around opportunity cost of cuts, but I guess I was talking about what the average voter thinks should be done.

    Somebody might be able to confirm this, but pretty certain a anti austerity candidate ran at Eastleigh, and got 62 votes….

    This says to me that the electorate don’t buy no cuts at all.

  36. Hence it is a lot to do with rates of return.

    How much gain does each cut actually give in practice?

    Equally, which investments give the greatest return on money spent, in the quickest and most reliable way.

    Hence considering multipliers which is the straightforward business practice of rates of return applied to the economy. ..

  37. @Carfrew,

    In fact I have just checked on Wikipedia. Howling Laud Hope of the Monster Raving Loony Party with 136 votes polled more than double the anti austerity candidate representing the TUSC.

  38. @Rich

    Yes, Well many voters don’t necessarily talk about multipliers. Or at least, polling doesn’t ask much about it.

    I think you are right, many accept some cuts. .. it’s the scale and nature that’s the issue.

    Although some would prefer greater taxation of the more wealthy of course…

  39. ps: yes you make a good good point on opportunity cost and return on investment. Construction seems a no brainier at the moment given the sector, housing shortage, apprenticeship opportunity for young people etc.

  40. @Rich

    Yes, well, UKip out-polled Tories at Eastleigh…

  41. Are UKIP anti-austerity?

  42. @Rich

    Construction has the advantage of being less risky than some other investments as you also create a physical asset. But you can build roads to nowhere and they can takes ages.

    Housing is much quicker than high speed rail.

    Tories are saying Labour cancelled a lot of ready-to-roll infrastructure which is not great if Labour did that. Dunno if it’s true but haven’t seen labour deny it.

    That said I don’t think Tories cancelling the school building programme was a great idea as again they were ready to roll and we need the school places.

  43. Wasn’t it a school rebuilding programme?

    Certainly most of the secondary schools in Plymouth are in the process of being knocked down and rebuilt. There may be some additional places involved but the only actual new schools are Free Schools.

  44. @ Postage Included

    Jockney rhyming slang is real. There’s even been an academic paper written on the subject – A Wee Keek at Scottish Rhyming Slang by Antonio Lillo (from Alicante!) in Scottish Language (2004), Vol 23.

    And various, less academic, books & articles. I can make a list & post it here, if you’d like me to. :-)

  45. @NEIL A
    “Are UKIP anti-austerity?”

    ———

    Lol, not that I am aware of. Did the Raving Loonies have a pro-austerity platform?

  46. @Neil

    Some refurbishment, some rebuilding but new schools too with amalgamations and stuff involved. It gets complicated from what I’ve heard about it.

  47. @ Neil A

    Are UKIP anti-austerity?
    ————
    Why would UKIP even consider austerity? After we leave the EU we shall all be living in an economic Shangri-La; & we’ll be saving billions by not letting those nasty EU immigrants abuse our welfare & NHS, so it’ll all be easily affordable. Sheesh…

  48. @ Neil A

    BTW, I was only using a small dash of sarcasm in my previous. Those really are pretty close to being UKIP’s economic, welfare & NHS policies. It’s a recent big change for them. Not so long ago, they were very ‘libertarian’ & believed there shouldn’t be any welfare or an NHS. Now, they just shouldn’t be staffed or used by foreigners – by which they mean EU foreigners, or so they say. Check their website, if you are really interested.

  49. @ Carfrew

    Housing is much quicker than high speed rail.
    ————–
    The HS rail is being built by Germans so it’ll probably move a little faster than most houses do. ;-)

  50. @Amber

    And have you seen how quick the Germans can build houses? That Grand Designs episode where they brought all the bits for the house over from Germany and built it in a weekend? The Brit crane driver thry hired held things up a bit though. Got lost on their way. ..

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