This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. For the time being at least we seem to have settled into a Labour lead of about 8 points in YouGov’s daily polling.

To pick up on another couple of questions from earlier in the week, on the suggestion by Len McCluskey that there should be a general strike, 57% of people said they would oppose a general strike with 27% in support. Naturally large majorities of Conservative and Lib Dem supporters were opposed, amongst Labour supporters 49% said they would support a general strike, 33% were opposed. Ed Miliband has totally dismissed the idea of a general strike and said it would a terrible idea – asked before Miliband commented, 40% of people said that Labour should oppose any such strike, 21% that they should support it, 27% that Labour should remain neutral.

On the same poll, George Osborne continued to be narrowly preferred to Ed Balls as best Chancellor, 29% to 24%. Asked the same question about whether people would prefer George Osborne or Alistair Darling as Chancellor, Darling is narrowly ahead 25% to 29%. The contrast isn’t vast, but obviously Darling does appeal to some parts that Ed Balls does not.


266 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 12”

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  1. Although we’ve seen a reduced 8 point lead over the last week I’m still not convinced that this shift is permenant. Perhaps 2 or 3 weeks will provide the answer …

  2. Simon – I would expect one week. Local elections are one of those regular events that do sometimes shift the polls. If the narrative that emerges from the locals is Labour and/or UKIP doing well then it could give them a wider boost in support.

  3. I expect more narrowing of the polls as the result of good economic news, yet to trickle through to this poll though, probably Sunday will be more enlightening. My forecast…

    C…35
    L….38
    LD.11
    UK..9

  4. AW
    Looking at the DKs, do you not think there is a case for having two choices – don’t know or don’t care? I just wonder such would produce a less partisan response to ‘who is better’ polling?

  5. The confidence in chancellors makes far less an impact than many try and make out – especially when the figures have shown clearly for a while now that neither are trusted by many.

    The figures are interesting on the general strike – even with right-wingers included only a minority wanted Labour condemnation and yet he’s already done it.

  6. All over bar the shouting.

    Remembering to write one line paras a la Colin

    Shows intellectual rigour and demonstrates clarity of view.

    If Lab continue adding a point every two days they will walk it in 2015

    ……………………………………………………………………………….

    Ken

    Bet you a ride on your clipper that you are wrong re Sunday

  7. Amthony

    In general would you agree that “if s/he was in charge instead, how would you vote” questions are a waste of time? People always seem to prefer the theoretical figure who hasn’t actually got any responsibility.

    Also, if that IS the case, is it a typically irritating British habit or d’you think other nationalities are the same?

    Its a shame that one can’t do empirical testing: I bet if Darling replaced Balls people would say in six months that Balls would be better.

  8. Perhaps Darling is preferred over Balls and Osborne, due to the reassuring tone of a Scottish chancellor being in charge of the countries finances. -:)

  9. Should PMs comment on bad sportsmanship in footy?

    Not sure myself but there seems to be a growing habit for them to have to have an opinion on absolutely everything and I wonder if it is always appropriate to their position.

    But like god mediating in a game of conkers – seems a bit beneath him when there’s so much else to do.

  10. RH

    “Perhaps Darling is preferred over Balls and Osborne, due to the reassuring tone of a Scottish chancellor being in charge of the countries finances. -:)”

    He could make good money doing voice-overs for financial or medical ads.

  11. …. or maybe Ed B should develop a nice Edinburgh accent.

  12. RH

    Interesting subject-why AD is liked .

    Firstly the Poll indicates that more current Lab voters, and Lab 2010 voters prefer EB to AD.

    A very few Cons from both groups switch from GO to AD.& only marginally prefer AD to EB.

    It’s the Lib Dems who desert GO for AD in significant numbers.

    For me his appeal is an amalgam of things such as these:-

    A quiet & thoughtful interview style which doesn’t involve shouting.
    An independence of spirit & outlook as evidenced in his relationship with Brown’s cabal.
    He gives the impression that his croft hideaway is a place of significance in his life.
    He was there when the brown stuff hit the fan.

  13. The contrast isn’t vast, but obviously Darling does appeal to some parts that Ed Balls does not.
    —————-
    The Darling appeal is probably not enough to change a significant % of votes, though.

    IMO, Somebody who was not in the cabinet at the time of the crash would be better, if Ed M did decide to make a change. My feeling is: he’ll stick with Ed B.

  14. @Ken,

    Not quite sure about your wishful guessing about the polls so close to the local elections next Thursday but hey who knows what might happen.

    My guess by Sundays Polls is:
    Con 33/34
    Lab 38/39
    LD 11/12
    UKIP 10/11

    So you see i’ve left my options a little open to swing about in the electoral wind so to speak!

  15. A bit of nit picking: I believe it’s actually the TUC which are considering having a vote regarding a day of action (general strike), not Len McCluskey.

  16. @Ken, somehow I don’t think so. The Tory vote has increased a couple of points but nowhere as high as 35. Labour seems to have settled to 39/40.

  17. Paul (fpt)
    “My first act will be to abolish footy teams from Manchester and managers with purple noses.”

    Why ? Is it because they take your players & let them win trophies ?

    (ducks)

  18. If we accept that the YG lead is 7-8 as per this weeks polls a 4% lead or 12%) would just be moe so we would need at least 3 to be sure of another shift.

    Personally the key ward aggregate analysis is the one that I pay most attention to when looking at local results but UKIP complicate that a little for the number crinchers this time. I await Anthonys judgement on how meaningful the projected National share for Labour (the key number for many of us) they produce is.

  19. Anthony, just so I know how much coffee and Pringles to stock up on, which elections on Thursday are being counted overnight?

  20. @ Craig

    One day strikes are pointless. Everybody loses a days pay & a small number of people face minor, temporary inconvenience.

    If a strike is called, I will support it out of solidarity, whilst also knowing that the strike is merely a gesture which will achieve next to nothing.

    Strikes are about power not public relations. You call them when you are determined to show where the power really is – you have to be in it for the long haul & be very sure that by the end of the strike, the ‘bosses’ will buckle & give you what you want.

    Public awareness strikes simply allow a bunch of annoying politicians to have loads of face time on TV.

  21. Lincolnshire, Dorset, Essex & Gloucestershire

    (expected at 2am, 4am, 4am & 6am). I don’t know about South Shields, but I really wouldn’t both staying up for the councils!

  22. I’m sure if Darling actually were shadow chancellor the popular press would relentlessly attack him until he was about as popular as Balls. I mean some guy on a phone in calling Balls “annoying” is apparently noteworthy enough to feature prominently on the Mail and Sun websites for weeks. Some bloke calls Osborne a rude thing is notable by it’s absence, despite my best efforts.

  23. @ Berious

    Some bloke calls Osborne a rude thing is notable by it’s absence, despite my best efforts.
    ————-
    LOL!

  24. @ Mark J and Ken

    Possibly if you were in the middle of a General Election your forecasts stood a chance of being true but I think you should take your 2-3% narrowing of the polls and bank it!

    I still don’t understand why the drop in the first place so trying to knock another 2% off the lead by the weekend without an obvious event to back it up is just wishful thnking.

    Without any key events I’d guess a 1% drop in the lead per month would be the most anyone could expect with a gradual changing of opinion.

  25. I’ll be staying up for the Essex results. My ward should be particularly exciting as I think I only need something like a 30% swing from Tory to Labour to come second to Tendring First (a disenchanted group of former Tories). I’m getting really excited about my prospect of becoming a County Councillor…er…

  26. AW and C N-S
    I don’t believe anyone is going to stay up for county council election counts, are they?

    AW
    Did you have any thoughts on my Q above at 1202?

  27. @Amber

    I always thought strikes were to highlight something which was unacceptable to the workforce, and hence why if there was a strike I would examine the reasoning behind it before deciding to support it or not.

    The ‘power’ strikes to which you refer, are what led to the decline in many industries and Thatcher’s battles with the strikers. Had the strikes been about something such as safety issues, the country would have been behind the strikers.

    Perhaps that’s the difference between our point of view. I view unions as something for defending the workforce from those who might abuse their position (including shop-floor folk or union reps).

  28. @ AW

    You mentioned above that local elections shift the polls but is this after or before the event? (Ie one party has a good local election and people start to back a winner or people are more focused on who they are voting for).

    I just wondered whether the lower Labour leads might be in part due to the local elections and people having to think harder about who they vote for or have decided who they are voting for or just received a leaflet through their door and think ‘that sounds like a good idea’.

  29. Amber,
    It is one of those strange paradoxes that Unions have learned to use the legislation meant to restrict them in productive ways.

    Union members quickly realised that even if they were doubtful about voting for strike action by doing so and achieving the ‘legitimate’ majority they stregthened their representatives hand.
    Also time limits for action has forced unions to go for one day strikes as a placeholder which as you suggest are limited in terms of impact on their employers but if they get a high participation rate measures the union members support and can stregthen the leaders hand.

    I post as a lefty who dislikes strikes greatly and think thay are overused by some unions but inplying to Unions that the best way to demonstrate the stregnth of their case is to get members majority approval for action has pushed them down this route in some cases.

  30. Hmmm…
    On an ancient thread a couple of weeks ago l said l thought there would be a small Thatcher related bounce for the Blues which would not last long. My view is that by this time next month the Reds will be back to 10% in front,might happen sooner i.e. within a week or so.

    LD councillor in Lancashire on [email protected] sounding v. despondent…are the LDs going to resume their role as the whipping boys for the Tories?

  31. Hmmm…
    On an ancient thread a couple of weeks ago l said l thought there would be a small Thatcher related bounce for the Blues which would not last long. My view is that by this time next month the Reds will be back to 10% in front,might happen sooner i.e. within a week or so.

    LD councillor in Lancashire on [email protected] sounding v. despondent…are the LDs going to resume their role as the whipping boys for the Tories?

  32. Quite a few comments milling around about better economic news filtering into VI changes soon.

    I’ve got to say that I’m a little uncertain about this. The GDP figures look back up to four months ago. At the back end of last year and into Q1, we saw a rise in consumer sentiment. Other measures showed the savings ratio declining, which often happens when people are feeling less defensive.

    The net result of these moves seems to be reflected in the better performance of the service sector, which has done quite well of late.

    But since January, indexes measuring household spending power have been declining, with the recent April Markit household spending index showing an accelerating decline in all income groups (houses on benefits particularly badly affected).

    Globally, news from the EZ continues to be poor, and there are also signs of slowing demand in the US and China. The big jump in UK unemployment could also mean something – have the construction and manufacturing sectors run out of time for holding staff hoping demand picks up?

    With weak global demand and shrinking UK exports, unless household demand picks up in a sustained and robust manner, I’m struggling to see how we maintain the good news story on growth. Given that the latest data (from Q2 now) appears to suggest that the household income squeeze is actually accelerating rather than abating, I’m not so certain that the economic news will be all that good for a while yet.

    Given that household incomes are likely to be a key driver of VI, I also think that even if other economic numbers appear to be on the move, VI might not be.

  33. Now I know what the poor postman has to put up with. So many of the modern letterboxes are really dangerous. I have been delivering Labour leaflets for the last couple of days and my hand is so bruised.

  34. Statgeek – I have a a rare thing for me a post in moderation must have used an auto-mod word – which I posted before seeing yours or maybe Anthony has had enough of the topic

    I think you misunderstand what Amber means by power. She will correct me if I am wrong but she does not mean power in the 70s sense of trying to bring down a Governemnt she is being specific to particular disputes.

  35. Out of mod

  36. Any Dogs Liz? they’re the worst.

  37. @LIZH – have you thought that the letter boxes might just be either Tory, LD or UKIP – you must try creeping up on them after dark!

  38. LizH

    I thought you’d been kidnapped

  39. “Any Dogs Liz? they’re the worst.”

    Indeed.

    Never, ever try to stuff election leaflets into a dog.

  40. More details emerging of my South England policy:

    Deal with SNP to give them independence and share of currency so long as they call themselves North England.

    Rest of country becomes South England with one accent – cockney. Amber moves South and takes cockney lessons.

    Birmingham, Leeds and Newcastle to become know as North London suburbs.

    Everybody receives London weighting in their salaries.

    Feckless given Scotch lessons and re-homed in North England,

    Manchester to be re-named “Arsenal” and allowed one footy team only, to be called Arsenal Reserves.

    Celtic to be allowed into the Essex Leauge so they have some competition.

    Voting simplified – no tory party – 600 labour MPs, mostly women.

  41. @JimJam, Mark Johnson, PaulCroft

    As I was on the naughty step, I thought I might as well go and do something useful. Nice to be off it though.

    Had no problems with dogs so far. The battle here is usually between the LibDems and Torys in GE and local elections but it was nice to have couple of people asking me which Party the leaflets were from and saying they would accept it when I said Labour.

    I am away now for the rest of the day/evening so you wont be hearing from me for awhile. I can almost hear AW’s sigh of relief.

  42. Alec

    Guddun

  43. @ R HUCKLE………..The reassuring tone of a Scottish Chancellor……………you mean, like, Gordon Brown ?

  44. @ PAULCROFT…………….Do you recall the marvellous scene in Annie Hall, when Annie’s brother, Duane, ( Christopher Walken ) greets Alvy, ( Woody Allen ) and immediately shares this fantasy with him, ” Sometimes, when I’m driving…….on the road…….at night……I see two headlights coming towards me, fast. I have this sudden compulsion to turn the wheel, quickly, head-on into the oncoming car. I can anticipate the explosion. The sound of shattering glass. The…..flames rising out of the flowing gasoline…..! ” Alvy’s reply is profoundly funny, ” Right. Well, I have to – I have to go now, Duane, because, I, I’m due back on the planet Earth “.
    The connection between your policy fantasy and Alvy’s reply came to me on the Clipper.

  45. @Berious,

    “Some bloke calls Osborne a rude thing is notable by it’s absence, despite my best efforts.”

    It did get coverage when a whole stadium did it simultaneously.

    @Ken,

    He was quite popular as Chancellor. It’s the reassuring tones of a Scottish PM that people aren’t so keen on.

  46. @LIZH – thats a bit narrow minded from your leafet recipients – to only accept leaflets from Labour and not at least read what the others have to say tells me they are Labour supporters come what may and nothing will move them.
    I usually vote Conservative but will certainly read what the others have to say, otherwise whats the point?

  47. Ken

    Thankyou: I shal put you down as a supporter. You will probably like our new poicy amendment – NorthEngland WILL share the name of our currency but, as a tribute to its past, it will have a its own name.

    It will called a “JockPoond” and be worth 20p.

  48. @ PAULCROFT…………..We, here on planet Earth, salute you !

  49. I won’t be staying up for the Nottinghamshire County Council result because they count on Friday morning, as do many others!

  50. I seem to recall a poll from a year or two back on recognition and after the PM most politicians fair badly.

    As an ex-chancellor Darling probably has a higher profile than Balls and that alone could explain him doing better.

    Peter.

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