This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. For the time being at least we seem to have settled into a Labour lead of about 8 points in YouGov’s daily polling.

To pick up on another couple of questions from earlier in the week, on the suggestion by Len McCluskey that there should be a general strike, 57% of people said they would oppose a general strike with 27% in support. Naturally large majorities of Conservative and Lib Dem supporters were opposed, amongst Labour supporters 49% said they would support a general strike, 33% were opposed. Ed Miliband has totally dismissed the idea of a general strike and said it would a terrible idea – asked before Miliband commented, 40% of people said that Labour should oppose any such strike, 21% that they should support it, 27% that Labour should remain neutral.

On the same poll, George Osborne continued to be narrowly preferred to Ed Balls as best Chancellor, 29% to 24%. Asked the same question about whether people would prefer George Osborne or Alistair Darling as Chancellor, Darling is narrowly ahead 25% to 29%. The contrast isn’t vast, but obviously Darling does appeal to some parts that Ed Balls does not.

266 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 12”

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  1. ChrisL

    Shame they didn’t win the title though, eh?

    Bloody hell but my head hurts this morning…

  2. Interested in Milliband’s policy announcement over the weekend regarding corporate tax breaks for firms paying the living wage. This is very similar to suggestions I’ve made on here in the past, and a pattern seems to be emerging.

    In this particular case, he argues that higher wages will reduce tax credits and increase taxes paid in other areas, off setting the cost of the tax breaks. So long as the numbers work out, it’s a neat approach. Government offers incentives, for which it will be repaid in a cost neutral manner, with the benefits being felt by the most needy voters, but under a policy framework that seems ‘fair’ to all. The key risk – to companies and employment – seems limited, as many are already seeking to pay the living wage, but are fearful of being undercut by competitors.

    Milliband’s various policy moves are following a distinct pattern. They seek to address specific concerns and issues, with government action, but with a balancing funding source to make them cost neutral.

    So far he has been really quite clever with these, although he will soon approach the problems that cannot be neatly squared off and where harsher calls may be needed.

  3. Anthony,

    The Scotsman is quoting a YouGov poll for “Better Together” with a 30% “Yes” figure. Few other details other than more pro men than women and more support at lower income levels.

    On the surface it seems pretty much where we have been for months now.


    Ultimately what matters is how many anti-Con libs and how many anti-Lab libs are currently part of the LibDem support.

    In the electoral reform scenario (Con+UKIP) or a hung parliament under FPTP in 2015 (assuming Lab vote falls and Libs regain some of their vote, UKIP falls and Con regain their vote) where the LibDems actually have the choice of Lab or Con (i.e the numbers add up both ways, without rainbow coalition) we could see some very unhappy voters whichever side they pick.

    So if we had a Lab+Lib coalition, that could see the anti-Lab libs split (much like we’ve currently seen with the anti-Con 2010 Libs) off to the Conservatives (or a new Liberal party) – meaning under an electoral reform scenario, the ‘right’ coalition could have a safe majority in the subsequent election.

    (Obviously it depends on what type of electoral reform, an Italian-style system could give the Con+UKIP+Right-Libs coalition a majority straight away, as soon as Libs had to make the pre-election choice)

  5. @alec,

    You say moneyweek nonsense, but I thought they made some good points about interest rates. Despite the downturn, most people are paying very very historically low interest rates. A lot of people on short 2 or 3 years deals attached to their mortgage, paying 3-4% typically, or variable rates at unde 3%.. Whilst interest rates are likely to be low for at least another few years, the only certainty is that things do change. When it does change. it will happen quickly, and I do have genuine fears for a lot of people when this occurs. The left shouldn’t brush this concern off, as it is genuine, and it probably is prudent to make some plans for whether you can service mortgage debt if interest rates jumped.


  6. @Rich – I didn’t reject those issues, and I stated clearly that we need to keep an eye on affordability etc. The point I was making is that there is nothing at all wrong with debt and national debt, if managed properly. Indeed, my central point was that without it, we would all be very, very much poorer.

  7. So perhaps people are just waiting for UKIP to break the glass ceiling, like the SDP did, and the Cons (with some net loss to Lab) face large decline.

    -Yes I well remember how the SDP/ aAliance 48% share in VI transferred into that SDP Government in the 1980’s.

    Just 280 Seats short of an overall Majority.
    FPTP is designed to ensure it isn’t a glass ceiling its a Concrete One

  8. So perhaps people are just waiting for UKIP to break the glass ceiling, like the SDP did, and the Cons (with some net loss to Lab) face large decline.

    -Yes I well remember how the SDP/ aAliance 48% share in VI transferred into that SDP Government in the 1980’s.

    Just 280 Seats short of an overall Majority.
    FPTP is designed to ensure it isn’t a glass ceiling its a Concrete One

  9. Interesting stuff in some of the right leaning press today.

    The Mail has an article headlined “Cameron’s election guru: ‘Osborne is a liability – he’s driving voters away’ while the Sun has a story about ‘Tories Polling Panic”

    Interestingly, the Sun also has a critical story about criminals being let off with cautions, which give prominence to Labour’s Sadiq Khan – not someone I thought was popular in Sun circles.

    I don’t know whether this is part of media manipulation in advance of the elections, but both papers set 350 losses as some kind of danger mark for Cameron.

    Others might know better, but this seems rather a low figure for conventional expectation management?

  10. Ken Clarke live on Sky News saying our austerity and spending cuts are actually far less and more measured than virtually all of Western Europe. Haven’t checked this, but it’s interesting if true. Are we getting some people over stating austerity??

  11. @Mrnameless,

    I live in Norwich – albeit a few yards over the border in Norwich North – and I must tell you there is not a hope in hell of the Greens winning Norwich South next time. On the basis of local elections they were going to take the seat in 2010, yet they came a pretty distant 4th!. Since then Labour have recovered strongly and look set to take the seat from the LibDems by 5000 + majority in 2015. Perhaps a close 3-way fight for 2nd place – though I expect the Greens to come 4th again.

  12. ST poll today.

    My usual thesis that the most crucial voters in 15 will be the lost LDs

    Do you believe that EM would make a better or worse PM than DC?

    Lost LDs’ opinions

    Better: 51%
    Worse: 19%

    This Tory idea that EM is going to win them the Election is badly mistaken. Tory voters hold EM in contempt. Loyal LDs hold EM in contempt. And that is totally irrelevant, because the constituency that Lab needs to hold into to win in 15 believe by a wide margin that EM is a better bet than DC.

    So, where now for the Tories?

  13. Rich

    The EZ is committed to a suicidal death spiral of Austerity Über Alles. We are slightly less manic in our Austerity zeal. We are tiptoing off the cliff instead of jumping. Full marks to us eh?


  15. @lefty,

    lol. Just remember a centre left Govt has just got removed in favour of centre right one in Iceland, largely as a result of austerity. Get your head around that one!
    Mind you, their three national banks basically went under, so it might just be a case of blaming whoever happened to be in charge. Apparently the country itself has moved more euro sceptic, and that is reflected in the incoming Govts position…

  16. @Rich – re Iceland – I thought they had just returned to power the party that were in power when the crisis erupted? If that’s a model for the UK, it might not be too distressing for Labour.

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