The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today and has topline voting intention figures of CON 29%(+2), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 15%(+2). Full tabs are here.

The poll also repeated some questions on whether Ed Miliband was ready to be PM, and the Labour party ready to return to government. 66% of people thought Miliband was NOT ready to be PM compared to 24% who thought he was (an improvement from 2011 when MORI last asked the question and only 17% thought he was ready). In comparison 29% think Labour are ready to form a government, 58% think they are not.

There is a temptation to look at questions like this and think “Oh Labour have 38% support but only 24% think Miliband is ready to be PM, so more than a third of Labour voters don’t think he is ready”. It doesn’t necessarily work like that, though in this case it isn’t far off. Voting intention figures exclude don’t knows and won’t vote, so are not comparable in this way. You need to look at the detailed tables here. For what it’s worth, and obviously there is a long time to go and these figures have tended to improve over time, 50% of Labour voters think Miliband is ready, 37% disagree.

In the meantime, how good or bad are those figures? Here is MORI’s historical results for the question for leaders and parties. Looking at mid-term figures (rather than when the question has been asked in election campaigns) in 2008 43% thought David Cameron was ready to be PM, in 2003 30% of people thought Michael Howard was ready, in 2003 just 16% thought IDS was, in 2000 18% thought Hague was. The figures for Tony Blair were much higher – in 1994 59% of people thought he was ready to be PM.

Yesterday there was also a new Angus Reid poll, which had topline figures of CON 27%(-3), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 16%(+4). Changes are from the Angus Reid poll in the Sunday Express at the end of January (note that the Angus Reid website instead gives changes from their poll in early January, hence the mismatch).

Finally this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%… so back to normal after that seven point figure yesterday. I hate to say I told you so, but…


292 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 29, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 15”

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  1. Anyone got the figures for how much growth the internet has added economically? Or the computer chip, invented privately but supported for years via the space programme till viable commercially. And GPS?…

  2. @carfrew,

    I was at Uni in a lecture theatre in around 1993 I think it was, or perhaps 94, and there was a guy from Olivetti doing a lecture on technology and the impact on society. He was talking about this new thing that would be massive called the information super highway. I think a few people were at the back saying ‘yeah whatever mate’. Just shows you!

  3. carfrew asked

    “Anyone got the figures for how much growth the internet has added economically? Or the computer chip, invented privately but supported for years via the space programme till viable commercially. And GPS?…”

    Not off the top of my head I’m afraid.

  4. Don’t worry Paul, any part of your head would do…

  5. No tweets from the Sun. You know what that means. Good night
    all.

  6. Carfrew

    In that case I think it was – to quote NickP from page one of this very fred – around 29 nillion. Maybe more.

  7. Howard,
    ‘on ‘debates’ cancellation by leaders

    Oh yes they will be blamed, but if they are that ‘frit’, they will weigh up the opprobrium of mincing about the format, etc, against the chance that they will come out badly.’

    But the point surely is that a failure to agree would mean that ALL the party leaders would be blamed – the electoral consequences would thereby be neutralised!

  8. Not if only one leader fails to agree.

  9. RICH
    @carfrew,
    “I was at Uni in a lecture theatre in around 1993 I think it was, or perhaps 94, and there was a guy from Olivetti doing a lecture on technology and the impact on society. He was talking about this new thing that would be massive called the information super highway. I think a few people were at the back saying ‘yeah whatever mate’. Just shows you!”

    ———————–

    It’s been quite good for cricket scores, to be fair. Hi-fi bargains online too. And mustn’t forget polling…

  10. “In that case I think it was – to quote NickP from page one of this very fred – around 29 nillion. Maybe more.”

    OK, you were right, maybe the top of your head would have been better. ..

  11. The Independent has an interesting article saying that Labour have ruled out the Blair/Brown strategy of adopting the Tory spending plans.

  12. Debates? Farage has not a single MP. How can he be included without inviting Alex Salmond &/or the Shinners? It’ll be interesting to see whether a particular level of polling justifies a no-MP leader being invited.

  13. It will not be the leader debates which will scupper the UKIP. It will be the Chancellor debates. It won’t matter how at odds e.g. Ed B, Osborne & Cable are with each other. They will be united around at least one theme: Now is not the time for a novice.

    Farage will need to find an exceptional UKIP candidate for the Chancellor role or his Party will be roasted by the media in the heat of the economic debate.

  14. “Farage will need to find an exceptional UKIP candidate for the Chancellor role or his Party will be roasted by the media in the heat of the economic debate.”

    ———–

    Well Osborne may be at loose end by then. ..

  15. @ Carfrew

    LOL!

  16. Carfrew,

    Ha! But I think Farage’s campaign strategy hinges explicitly on NOT hiring Osborne.

    What about Diane Whatsherface from Eastleigh? She seemed to have her act together.

  17. Obviously the majority have to think Labour are not ready for govt. the have not revealed, or even developed, all their policies.

  18. Amber,

    Presumably the Northern Irish parties could be excluded on the grounds they don’t run against the Great British parties. Not sure what it would mean for the SNP and Plaid, though. Maybe they could hold one debate in each nation, so Leanne Wood shows up in Wales and Salmond in Scotland? That format would give them a convenient pretext to only include Farage in the English debate, although I agree that would be a tactical blunder for the reasons people have mentioned.

    @ that Indy article: Wow. Is that an actual concrete statement about spending plans I see!?

  19. The Indy article has been rubbished by “sources” of unknown origin .

    The BBC website is now leading with ” Miliband will tell the Scottish Labour Party this weekend that it is time for a new start comparable to the change offered by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s ”

    Following on from the Scottish Labour Party Leader ‘s speech last year proposing means testing of some benefits this is adds a new dimension to ” we are all Thatcherites now ”

    I wonder what he has in store – grovelling to the Blairites perhaps ?

  20. Good Morning All.

    LIZ H. Poll lead at seven abain for Labour despite the lack of a Sun tweet. So no chablis with the croissants then. Fridays are good days for school.

  21. With the saturation and generally massively pro coverage of al things Thatcher this week I am not particularly surprised the figures have been a bit volatile.

    Once normal political activity and normal news resume (American events permitting) I suspect IV figures will return to normal with an average lead of around 10%.

    Also as AW says these are all within MOE

  22. We’ve done with Thatcher now and it’s back to the economy.

    What would be better/worse politically:

    Triple dip for Q4 announced this month; or

    Narrowly avoided, sighs of relief then back into “negative growth” in July?

  23. I have no doubt Labour would be delighted to maintain a 7% lead over the Conservatives up to 2015 as it would convert to a majority of around 80.

    Really it is all down to economic performance over the next 2 Years and if there are any green shoots they are few and far between.

    IMO the electorate will want to see tangible improvements by 2015 A campaign of give us another 5 Years and we will get you back to the position we said would happen in 2013 will be tricky.

    But no doubt the Tory Spin machine will concentrate on the fact that EM has a “funny” face instead!

  24. I don’t know if anybody has posted this (I haven’t been visiting the site), but Lord Ashcroft has a poll of ethnic minorities.
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/lord-ashcroft-ethnic-minority-voters-poll-summary—april-2013-1.pdf

    The part that I found most interesting (all voters):
    ..you are in favour of multiculturalism – 70%
    …you are opposed to multiculturalism – 30%
    Only UKIP voters (57%) were opposed to multiculturalism, with Con (71%), Lab (76%), Lib (89%) in favour.
    And that was a really surprising result for me, I didn’t expect it to be so high (but that’s the ultimate benefit of polling – accurate public opinion record, not what I assume public opinion to be).

  25. tinge

    I thought everybody except a few loonies and Linton Crosby was in favour of multi-culturalism (and Cameron about once every six months when he wants to distract from economic news).

  26. Only UKIP voters (57%) were opposed to multiculturalism, with Con (71%), Lab (76%), Lib (89%) in favour.

    -Which is why in reality despite the significant policy differences UKIP are basically the sanitized successor to the BNP

    (In Blazers)

  27. My prediction (for what it’s worth) is that debates won’t happen. Each side will set initial conditions, and then compromise in such a way that the others can’t accept yet they can claim the other side were unreasonable in their demands.

    The BBC will be in an impossible situation, and we will (instead) have arguments on Newsnight about why debates didn’t take place rather than about issues. Or as it was last time, personalities.

  28. Interesting front page story in The Times of Union stitch up in EU election lists.

    YG Poll this morning -interesting trends in supplementary questions.

    Cons ahead on “The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind
    of society I want” !

    Are these strange oscillations all MOE, or a sign that the waves are settling on a lower tide line?

  29. Interesting cross-breaks again in todays You Gov poll. Con ahead 42 – 31 in 18 to 24’s group.

  30. I looked on here for the YouGov Sun poll, but noticed only passing references, here, for those interested, are the headline figures…………….

    Con 33
    Lab 40
    LD 10
    UKIP..11

    App….. -28

    So, Labour lead 7……….!

  31. colin

    On a side note, do you think the Telegraph online going behind a paywall like the Times might mean that the more left/liberal Guardain and Independent will begin to dominate the more serious online news trending? I know the BBC will be dirst stop for many, but people might get used to seeking further info from G or Indie.

    Just another thing that might play to Ed M? Or wishful thinking from a tribal Red?

    Thoughts?

  32. In yesterday’s You Gov poll with an 11 point Labour lead the 18 – 24 group was 54 -21 in Labour’s favour. This is a huge swing.

  33. @STEVE – ” …generally massively pro coverage of all things Thatcher this week.”

    I make it ten or eleven days…

    Looking back at the 2010 GE the big feature was that Labour struggled to pick up support among “don’t knows” during the campaign. Among established media outlets they had the support of The Mirror and, er… that’s it.

    In 2010 Labour was offering more of the same, in 2015 it will be something different – I don’t buy the idea that people are not influenced by a general unstated media narrative and get all their information from social media nowadays – but there is no guarrantee, as yet, that they will not face a even more hostile media environment at the next GE.

  34. NICK

    Hadn’t seen that.

    It’s an interesting thought.

    I tend to go to my Times paper first & the Google News.
    If the latter is to be left orientated for the reasons you put-I suppose you might be on to something.

    Will it have a discernible effect though?

  35. Rolf Harris – Blimey!

    “Can ya tell what it is yet?”

  36. NICK

    I should have said that the Telegraph isn’t a wholehearted supporter of the current Conservative leadership-so what difference?

  37. Just a short (hopefully!) note to say that I will not be posting for a while. Sadly Devonian will be stopping altogether. Devonian was in fact my wife and she died unexpectedly following a heart operation. She it was who found the site for us and lurked on it for a long time, all the while telling me how good it was. She referred to you all as ‘friends’ so that I would ask her ‘what are friends on about’ and she would get annoyed and say that friends were on about so many things that she could not possibly summarize.
    She loved the site and would read it faithfully every night, particularly liking the elegance of some of the English (she had a first in the subject so was qualified to judge). And she greatly valued many of the contributors, Anthony for his even handedness and expertise, Paul Croft for his wit (and despite his atheism for she was a committed Christian), Amber and Sue Marsh (whom she called the mothers of the site), Eoin, Greenbenches, Crossbatt11, Alec, Roger Mexico, John Pilgrim, Martyn, Laszlo, Carfrew, MinM (for coming at things from unusual angles) and of course many others. As a birth right socialist most of her favorite contributors were of the left, but she also valued Colin and Neil for their honesty and the courage with which they put their view. She regarded TOH’s views as outrageous but also as the perversity of a stubborn and good man who did odd things like preserving rain forests. As a Christian she knew she should also love Mrs Thatcher but had the greatest possible difficulty with this project. She did not fear death but did fear that she would wake up confused from her operation and believe, because of the recent furore, that MrsT was still on the throne.
    For the moment I do not have the heart to go contributing myself but will lurk around. And in time, Anthony permitting, will try contributing again. When I do i will try and defend social work in which she believed passionately, and say the sort of things of which she would have approved. I will also try and avoid the pedantry and pomposity of which she sometimes (not often) accused me, while defying her by quoting Latin when I want.
    For the moment I just want to thank Anthony and all the rest of you for contributing to a life which was given meaning by her sense of the love of God, and delight by the Devon countryside,her family, her friends, an incredible range of ‘clients’ whom she saw as friends and interests that varied from Jonathan Swift to East Eastenders to UKPR.

  38. CHARLES

    Deepest condolences .

    Thank you for your beautiful & heartrending contribution to UKPR this morning.

    How do we ever really know about each other?

  39. Charles

    Affection and sympathy to you. Your wife sounds like a lovely person.

    Paul

  40. @ CHARLES………..How sad, please accept my condolences.

  41. @Charles

    So sorry to hear your news, Paul Croft expresses my thoughts exactly.

    I will be thinking of you today.

  42. Charles

    A beautiful story. Thank you for having the time and strength to tell us. I’m so sorry for your loss.

    We’ll miss your and your wife’s thoughtful posts but look forward to your return when you feel you’d like to.

    In the meantime, all courage and strength to you.

  43. Paul

    -Is it a defamation of character law suit?

    Please remember an allegation is just that.

  44. @Charles

    So sorry to hear your sad news. Your post brought tears to my eyes. Please accept my condolences.

  45. The Labour lead slowly shrinking point by point – could of course be another rogue poll but its happening a little more often.
    At least it makes it more interesting – better than stuck on 40, 30, 10 consistantly although I’m quite sure some of our more left leaning contributors would tend to disagree! -lol

  46. Sorry to hear your sad news Charles. My condolences on your loss.

  47. By the way its lovely to see Steve always put a ‘non partisan’ gloss on every poll when in fact he should be most concerned that Labour are not 15-20% ahead in the polls at this point into a very difficult period for any government of any colour!

  48. Charles

    I am so sorry to hear your news. Your wife’s posts were always a pleasure to read, and yours, written at such a time is thoughtful, dignified and moving. A lesson for all of us.

  49. CHARLES

    I am so very sorry; I was moved to read your announcement; in the tribulation of loss there is slight consolation; I will be in Westminster Cathedral tomorrow and will light a candle for her.

    Lux aeterna luceat eis Domine; cum sanctis tuis in aeternum: quia pius es.

  50. So sorry Charles – i do indeed remember Devonian but from before the 2010 election -so sad – my thoughts and prayers are with you.

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