YouGov’s daily polling for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 13%. While we have seen much higher from other online companies, it is the highest UKIP score that YouGov have shown so far. All the usual caveats apply: one should never get too excited about a record breaking score as it will almost always be a bit of an outlier. What counts is the underlying trend, and these figures underline the ongoing increase in UKIP support, and indeed the recent modest recovery in YouGov’s Lib Dem support.


595 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 12, UKIP 13”

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  1. Correction:

    1993: Con -486, Lab +111, LD +395

    Though there are many changes to the make-up of councils and electoral schedules over the years.

  2. Personally I’m hoping for a large Labour gain in Clacton East, where we came 4th last time. But this time we have a dynamic young candidate…well,ok, not so young…oh, and also, the same candidate as last time. Perhaps at least 3rd this time though!

  3. Alec

    In politics I’ve always felt that once it appears normal to back a party, then more people will flock to them. This may be something that is currently happening with UKIP?

    It could be, and it might explain why the telephone polls lagged behind the online ones. People might feel it is more ‘acceptable’ to go for UKIP online first rather than say so speaking to a stranger. Once it became a more mainstream choice, the telephone polls caught up (though there may be other technical factors, particularly with Opinium)

    Of course bandwagons can be misleading too, because people may jump on who never intend to complete the journey. To some extent this happened with the Lib Dems at the last election and partly explains why they did worse at the polls.

  4. Good luck Norbold

  5. @Alec,
    Intersting stuff about the Californian Energy bills.

    We should try the same here, and just tell everyone they’re above average.

  6. @ AW

    “Couper – doesn’t work, it relies upon the misconception that people understand the underlying factors behind their own decisions. They don’t.”

    Anthony, wouldn’t it be more precise to say that they don’t reflect on their choice/decision? They are very rarely forced to do in other matters in their everyday life, so, why would they? But if you gave them the chance to reflect, they may… Or for that matter they may recognise that they betted on the horse they didn’t want to.

    But otherwise I agree – I would even argue that those drivers at the general elections are really only elements of the narratives that people build to justify (if they are bothered) their choices. It happens with many of the guests of the election night’s TV coverages.

  7. @ Alec

    While peer pressure exists without doubt, I would really be interested in these research projects in the California experiment. It doesn’t sound right, I feel that something is wrong with them. Have you got some links, please?

  8. @TingedFringe

    “It’s looking likely that we’ll avoid the triple-dip and the original technical double-dip may be revised away, so there is the potential for good economic news soon”

    I don’t think technical adjustments in the figures can really be counted as good news. It just means things are bad in a slightly different way.

    More importantly, there’s little or no evidence that whether or not we’re in a recession makes a difference in the polls. What affects VI is people’s own experience of the economy, not whether figures tell us we’re in recession or not.

  9. @ Robin

    “More importantly, there’s little or no evidence that whether or not we’re in a recession makes a difference in the polls. What affects VI is people’s own experience of the economy, not whether figures tell us we’re in recession or not.”

    Yes, I agree. But the figures matter too.

    This OECD definition of recession is really silly. The output level is still below the last peak, so we are in recession (the argument that it was bubble before the last peak doesn’t hold – before every single drop there was a bubble – smaller or bigger).

  10. “It’s looking likely that we’ll avoid the triple-dip and the original technical double-dip may be revised away, so there is the potential for good economic news soon”
    —————–
    Those rating agencies who downgraded the UK are going to look like silly billies then. And that would be good news for the Tories except Osborne ‘bigged them up’ as being his top priority.

  11. So politics are like margarine. If you’re on the middle shelf (centre ground), the shopper will pick you!

  12. @ Amber

    “So politics are like margarine. If you’re on the middle shelf (centre ground), the shopper will pick you!”

    I actually read somewhere about gender differences in the preferred shelf in a supermarket… However, many of the marketing/advertising research projects have been shown to be faulty.

  13. @ Laszlo

    Yes, indeed.

    You probably know that Labour believes it is personal contact which most influences voters; hence Labour’s efforts to always have more ‘boots on the ground’ in target seats than the other Parties have.

  14. AMBER

    @”Those rating agencies who downgraded the UK are going to look like silly billies then”

    I don’t think they should.

    THe three “interelated” drivers quoted by Moody for their UK downgrade included this one :-

    “The continuing weakness in the UK’s medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody’s now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;”

    So not experiencing a negative GDP change in 2013 Q1 doesn’t change that viewpoint.

    Also , the other two drivers quoted by Moody were the resulting extended period for fiscal consolidation ; higher debt trajectory, and higher peak debt, all weakening UK’s “shock absorption capacity”.

    It would take something quite dramatic in UK’s short term economic growth , to alleviate those concerns.

  15. The conventional definition of recession was apparently invented by one if LBJ’s associates to enable him to claim that America wasn’t in recession. It’s intellectually meaningless.

    The argument about previous bubbles distorting the figures as a way if discrediting the metric if where we are compared to previous peak is disingenuous and generally used for political purposes.

    For me, the big metric is where we are compared to the long term trend of real GDP. This underlying trend has been rock-solid for 60 years. So a good measure of the strength if the economy is where we are compared to that trend.

    There is a fair argument to be made that we perhaps ran above trend in the noughties. It depends on exactly what figure you take for the trend growth rate. What is unarguable is that we are currently WAY below trend growth. And we are unlikely to get back there this decade.

    The question then becomes, has the long term growth trend rate diminished, or have policy mistake temporarily depressed our performance relative to trend? That is kind of the nub of the economic argument.

  16. Just catching up on YouGov’s “Bulletproof Boris” commentary.

    How does it work usually… Q1: Con/Lab/LD/Other*
    *Q1a: UKIP/SNP/PC/Green etc?

    The “Boris” poll appears to be Q1 Con/Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Other*
    *Q1a: UKIP/Green etc.

    This seems to be a follow up to an identical poll a week previously (in other words before the bulletproof armour had been tested). Is this a regular thing? How often is YouGov asking the David Cameron/Boris Johnson question?

    Another question. If the sample was the same as the regular VI survey, does that mean there might be people who complete the standard VI survey, but fail to complete the entire questionaire thereby disqualifying themselves from the sample?

  17. Amber:

    You probably know that Labour believes it is personal contact which most influences voters; hence Labour’s efforts to always have more ‘boots on the ground’ in target seats than the other Parties have.

    ………………………………………………………………………………….

    Wot! No feet or legs?

  18. Graham,
    Re your 2% LD-Con swing based on current polling.

    That is one way of looking at it and ‘swing’ analysis has been fairly accurate in calculating total seats but often it does not work that well for specific seats as well as the proportionate method.

    Current polling suggests roughly half their 2010 score for the LDs and 80% for the Tories.

    So in each seat with no local or tactical factors in play the LD would lose half their votes and the Conservatives only 20% delivering most Con/LD targets.

    IMO what Eastleigh demonstrated is that despite some of the rhetoric many (I think a majority) of ‘centre-lefty’ LD 2010 voters currently giving Lab, WV and DK (a few UKIP now as well) as a VI option will in the end vote LD to keep the Tory out. Also, whilst the LDs can not mount a campaign on an Eastleigh scale in every vulnerable seat at the GE where they have the MP and a strong local presence by directing their resources they will retain most Tory targets.
    Big struggle against Labour and SNP I reckon, though, losing more than half even if as I expect they end up with 14-17% at the GE.

  19. @ Jim Jam

    I suppose such a LibDem behaviour would vary constituency by constituency. In 1997 and the next election you could actually trade your vote (depending on the probability of Lab, Con, LD votes – i.e. you were willing to vote for LibDems if Labour had no chance in exchange for the other person voting for Labour where LibDems didn’t have a chance. There were websites where you could arrange these things – based on trust…). I don’t think it is feasible any more.

    In the Merseyside, LDs will try to put up a fight, but they will loose it (so better employ their volunteers elsewhere).

  20. @Jim Jam

    Ashcroft’s post byelection poll appeared to show that numerically more Con 2010 voters than 2010 Lab voters switched to LD in Eastleigh. For every three voters who abandoned Con for UKIP, two were put no doubt off by Maria Hutchings UKIP-type campaigning and switched to LD.

    In fact the churn was great for all three main parties… Con retaining 59% of their 2010 vote, LD and Lab around 50%.

    Again numerically more 2010 LDs probably switched to Labour than the other way around (some of those 2010 LD voters may have been Lab tactical voters anyway) – at the very least they probably cancelled each other out. More 2010 LDs leaked to UKIP than to Labour, and a fair proportion (10%) went to Con.

    To sum up the musical chairs, UKIP’s surge was slightly more from Con than LD, and possibly a small net gain of 2010 Cons swiching to LD.

  21. Jim Jam,

    I don’t quite agree with you re – Eastleigh.. The LibDem vote fell very sharply and were only saved by a similar fall in the Tory vote.. As to Labour tactical voting, I suspect that much of the 2010 tactical vote switched from LibDem to UKIP.

  22. Friday’s yougov lab 42 con 29 ld 11 ukip 13

  23. Labour trending up because David Miliband going to the IRC put Labour on our TV screens? Proving once again, there’s no such thing as bad publicity?

  24. @Amber Star – ” …bad publicity?”

    People commenting on the Guardian didn’t quite know how to decode Steve Bell’s cartoon: David Miliband as the Statue of Liberty holding aloft a banana and bearing a resemblance to Bell’s portrayal of Obama.

    Elsewhere IRC was compared to the FO in terms of reach.

    US/UK relations are unproblematic under Obama, but there could be a Republican in the White House (let’s hope not) in 2017. Any PM from whatever party can run up against the limits of their power wrt deeper aspects of the UKUSA Agreement. A brother in New York may not be a such a bad thing.

  25. @ Billy Bob

    By bad publicity, I meant the leadership competition being reviewed for the nth time together with the negative spin put on DM ‘leaving his constituents in the lurch’. Personally, I think we agree that DM’s new position suits him & is an advantage for the Labour Party.

  26. Will we avoid a triple dip?, I went shopping last weekend when it was snowing, and it was really quiet, doesnt bode well for Q1 figures.

    Changing the subject, does anybody care to comment where this North Korea situation is going?..

    sorry for off topic post!

  27. RichO

    Wow, now that’s what I *call* an anecdote!

    The answer to your question is, essentially, no, btw.

    I am not sure about ‘essentially’ – one gets into hot water here for using ‘essentially’.

  28. RICHO

    It’s so hard to tell whether Kim Jong- un is ratcheting things up some some internal reason-or whether he really is thinking of starting something.

    Threats like ” “judged the time has come to settle accounts with the US imperialists”.are really terrifying, given the nuclear capacity of the regime.

    I see the Russians have said it is getting “out of control”.

    Presumably South Korea won’t just sit there and wait to be obliterated ?

    It would sure put UK politics on the back burner.

  29. “Will we avoid a triple dip?”
    OECD have forecast 0.1% growth in Q1, followed by 0.4% growth for Q2.

    Some of the January output, etc figures are looking positive, after a dreadful Q4 – but obviously we’ll have to wait and see.
    I’m all fingers crossed for positive numbers – an official triple dip, even if Q1 is only very slightly negative wouldn’t be good for consumer confidence which would push back the recovery.

  30. ……..mind you , if his rockets are copy & paste ones, like his hovercraft, I suppose it might not be so bad.

  31. Triple dip or not will become clearer from Tuesday-Thursday with PMI figures for March.

    Re North Korea I read on the DT site that some travel agent had been told war was ‘a few hours away’…. that was a few hours ago!

  32. @Colin

    I’m sure it’s just a coincidence but the Chinese state media have been aggressively trashing Apple.and by implication the US.

  33. @billy Bob

    loyal supporters of Cameron voted for his party.

  34. @ LeftyLampton

    I understand the logic of your view about recessions, etc. The reason I prefer the one I described, because interest rates, recruitment, investment and rate of return start to behave differently once the economy surpasses the previous high point after a recession.

  35. @ Wolf

    “I’m sure it’s just a coincidence but the Chinese state media have been aggressively trashing Apple.and by implication the US.”

    While it is unlikely that it wasn’t cleared with political authorities, the same programme criticised Volkswagen and earlier programmes went after Carrefour, McDonalds, etc.

  36. Eastleigh was of course complex with much churn and of course a By-Election turnout but I actually said.

    ”IMO what Eastleigh demonstrated is that despite some of the rhetoric many (I think a majority) of ‘centre-lefty’ LD 2010 voters currently giving Lab, WV and DK (a few UKIP now as well) as a VI option will in the end vote LD to keep the Tory out”

    Graham/Billy Bob – Thanks,
    Perhaps it was badly written but I think it is accurate that in Eastleigh ‘many’ Lab leaners who voted LD in 2010 were prepared to vote LD again to keep the Tory out. The (majority) is an opinion of mine hence the brackets and saying ‘I think’ about what will happen in such seats come 2015.

    I think UKIP will fall to circa 5% at the GE as well with the fall splitting mainly for the Cons as well worth perhaps 3-4% next over Labour on current VI.
    As per Hutchings (pace BB) in order to ensure this though what damage to the aim of holding centre leaning voters for the Cons, a big dilema for them with risks whichever route they take.
    I think DC wants to keep triangulating and dare these UKIP/Tory waverers to put Labour in office but will forces around him and the PCP push him ever rightwards?

  37. @Paulcroft – slightly amusing to see we were much wetter under Thatcher.

    Mores seriously though, I think this weather could well have an effect. Figures so far from February have not been particularly good, although services seem OK, but a weather affected March may tip things.

    The recent EZ numbers are also very poor – any exporters will be struggling.

  38. @Jim Jam

    Yup, probably sounded like I was contradicting you with the Ashcroft/Eastleigh data, but that was not my intention, just putting it out there. Eastleigh is probably not that representative, but it shows how unpredictable things can get. Many people did predict that LDs would hold the seat, some that UKIP would come second, but only a few commentators on the ground reported the fluid situation of swings in multiple directions as per Ashcroft’s post-poll.

    On less reliable grounds imo (at least under current circumstances) Ashcroft insists Con has more to gain from appealing to centrist “considerers” than in bringing back UKIP defectors. In one way he is correct. Cameron has lurched right in his rhetoric, but this is only feeding the UKIP surge.

    Tories could take the “rational” path and revert to more centrist rhetoric – at the risk of seeing UKIP perform significantly better at the GE, or there could be a sudden convulsion leading to some kind of electoral pact with UKIP. Sometimes events take on a momentum of their own – another factor could intervene, such as the Sun swinging temporarily behind UKIP.

  39. At the UK Butter Association’s Easter conference they have just announced the results of their annual board member elections.

    Apparently there was a lot of churn there as well.

  40. How were the votes spread Alec?

  41. @ Paul Croft

    Difficult to get a slogan out for the weather. I’ll stick with the ‘you only win a World Cup under a Labour government’. Trouble is Blair/Brown had 3 chances to win and failed miserably so that particular slogan doesn’t carry the weight it once did.

  42. JIM JAM

    @”will forces around him and the PCP push him ever rightwards?”

    According to a very interesting article by Mathew Parris this morning, and in the words of one of the 30 Tory MPs in marginal constituencies who he surveyed:-” “The biggest divide in our party is not Left versus Right; it’s safe versus marginal.”

  43. Whether the weather be fine,
    Or whether the weather be not,
    Alec will promptly opine
    “The weather’s a Tory plot”.
    Whether the weather be grey,
    Or whether the weather be blue,
    Alec will simply say
    “It’ll leave GDP in the poo”

  44. @Colin

    :lol: Funny, but you’re no one to talk about bias!

  45. That smiley should’ve worked… :?:

    test:
    :) :( ;)

  46. I guess not… :D

  47. @Colin – you might be surprised to know that I don’t hold Tories responsible for the weather.

    Oh no – it’s far more serious than that. Ever since we joined the EU, we’ve been subject to control of our weather patterns by excessive continental influences, with repeated episodes of blocking high pressure systems bringing in easterly weather conditions and creating droughts, heat waves and record cold and snowy winters.

    Traditionally our weather has always been much more mid Atlantic based, and if you look at our economic performance, we performed much better in our previous climatic circumstances.

    Quite simply, the idea of a single weather system for the whole of Europe is typical of the Brussels mentality. Without compensating energy and moisture transfers, you risk building up huge imbalances that lead to dramatic and damaging weather events. The Germans may have done very well indeed out of this, but now we face a record freezing March, they turn their backs on us and refuse to take their share of the responsibility for the mess.

    I ask you this – have we ever had the chance to vote for our weather since we joined the EU?

  48. An interesting article on Cyprus in the Grauniad’s money section today. They make a number of observations about the potential impacts of the bail out, some quite pleasing, others a little disturbing.

    Among the more eye catching claims is the view that capital controls are back. While currently they are only confined to Cyprus, the fact that they have occurred at all means that they could readily be used elsewhere in the next crisis. While the article says it seems inconceivable they could ever apply here, they point out that once upon a time it was inconceivable that British banks could collapse, or that interest rates could ever hit 0.5% and stay there for years.

    On a more entertaining note, they also suggest that the Cyprus situation is creating shock waves in tax havens, with the implication that those using such places to shelter their wealth might want to think again. No one will want to bail out such jurisdictions if they hit problems, meaning this has become a much higher risk avenue.

    One other intriguing observation is their view that this is, de facto, a break up of the Euro. They raise the possibility of a Russian with €1m in a Cypriot bank that she cannot access, accepting €900,000 in another non Cypriot bank account in exchange. A different market value has been created for Euros, depending where they are held, which is therefore the theoretical breakup of the Euro zone.

    This latter one might well be worth watching. Markets don’t do what they are told by politicians, and will act to profit from any trading situation imaginable. If this type of trade really does start to happen, the longer term consequences could become very interesting indeed. I can foresee differential trades in different Euro national denominations, depending on the perceived level of risk.

    This provide markets with a theoretical route to break the Euro, regardless of what any government says, and governments cannot dictate how markets trade.

  49. “The story could be that Labour takes control of a some significant county councils (no metropolitans and very few unitaries involved in this election) but fails to make a big impact compared to 2012, Con loses some but remains dominant, and LD builds on their recovery this year with some gains. That is unless UKIP manages to throw a mighty spanner in the works.”

    Realistically, Labour should be looking at gaining Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire and Northumberland. If they do very well, then Cumbria, Staffordshire and Warwickshire could also be in the mix.

    The Conservatives will most likely hold on to most of their current counties but could lose overall control in several of them. As for the Lib Dems, all their energies should be spent on becoming the largest party in Somerset, Devon and Cornwall as well as remaining the largest group in Northumberland though the latter in particular is likely to be difficult.

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